Making it viable: exploring the influence of organisational context on efforts to achieve deep carbon emission cuts in existing UK social housing

Over coming decades, deep reductions in carbon emissions will be required from existing social housing as part of the UK’s effort to combat climate change. The ability of social landlords to carry out interventions to achieve these emission cuts is strongly influenced by the context in which they operate. This paper reports the results of a 3-year participant observation study of one UK social landlord, undertaken with the aim of identifying contextual factors that either support or hinder its ability to carry out carbon reduction interventions. The results indicate that a lack of funds to finance the required interventions is the most significant barrier to the achievement of deep emission cuts. Other key issues identified include the lack of a strong drive to act from government, a need for increased internal capacity to enable landlords to deliver and manage carbon reduction interventions and a low level of interest from residents in achieving emission cuts. These results lead to a number of recommendations for policymakers: to mandate action on the part of social landlords to achieve high levels of energy efficiency in their stock, to intervene in the market to make the required interventions financially viable and to put forward policies and long-term goals that will enable social landlords and householders to view stock refurbishment as part of a society-wide effort to decarbonise existing housing.     

Domestic futures—Which way to a low-carbon housing stock?

This paper examines various routes to achieving a 60% carbon emission reduction from the UK housing stock by 2050 compared to 1996, using a new object-oriented housing stock and carbon model, DECarb. As housing is at present responsible for 26% of all UK emissions, housing carbon reduction is likely to be a key component for the overall 60% emission reduction target set by the UK Government's Energy White Paper in 2003. This paper compares 3 independently published sets of scenarios detailing possible routes and suggests that highly disaggregated approaches produce more credible data. The results also show that whilst there are many different routes to achieving the target from a technological standpoint, all of them will require significant shifts in current practice. We investigate other routes to achieving this target, while also meeting nearer term reductions of 50% by 2030. DECarb shows that significant challenges exist in meeting these requirements, though they are technically feasible. On this basis it also becomes clear that the domestic sector will not be able to offset smaller reductions from any other sector of the economy.     

Design limitations in Australian renewable electricity policies

Renewable electricity is pivotal to the medium and long-term reduction of Australia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, if deep cuts in them are eventually implemented. This paper examines the effectiveness of the principal existing policies that could potentially promote the expansion of renewable electricity (RElec) in Australia: the expanded Renewable Energy Target (RET); the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS); and the state and territory-based feed-in tariffs. We find the effectiveness of RET is severely eroded by the inclusion of solar and heat pump hot water systems; by the inclusion of ‘phantom’ tradable certificates; and by high electricity consumption growth. We also find that the ETS will not produce a high enough carbon price to assist most RElec technologies before 2020; and that most of the feed-in tariffs exclude large-scale RElec and will give little assistance to small-scale RElec because they are mostly net tariffs. Unless there is a major revision of its RElec policy mechanisms, Australia will fail to reach its renewable electricity target and in particular will fail to build up its solar generation capacity which could be a major source of future deep cuts in the country’s electricity generation emissions.     

Joint electricity and carbon market for Northeast Asia energy interconnection

Decarbonization of the electricity sector is crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change and global warming over the coming decades. The key challenges for achieving this goal are carbon emission trading and electricity sector regulation, which are also the major components of the carbon and electricity markets, respectively. In this paper, a joint electricity and carbon market model is proposed to investigate the relationships between electricity price, carbon price, and electricity generation capacity, thereby identifying pathways toward a renewable energy transition under the transactional energy interconnection framework. The proposed model is a dynamically iterative optimization model consisting of upper- level and lower-level models. The upper-level model optimizes power generation and obtains the electricity price, which drives the lower-level model to update the carbon price and electricity generation capacity. The proposed model is verified using the Northeast Asia power grid. The results show that increasing carbon price will result in increased electricity price, along with further increases in renewable energy generation capacity in the following period. This increase in renewable energy generation will reduce reliance on carbon-emitting energy sources, and hence the carbon price will decline. Moreover, the interconnection among zones in the Northeast Asia power grid will enable reasonable allocation of zonal power generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be an effective technology to reduce the carbon emissions and further realize the emission reduction targets in 2030-2050. It eases the stress of realizing the energy transition because of the less urgency to install additional renewable energy capacity.     

低碳发展时代的世界与中国能源格局

哥本哈根会议认定了"2℃"和"在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半",到2050年,碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2.5t标煤/a。能源碳强度ω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标,利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率γ的关联式ω=2.4γ进行推算:按照450情景方案,二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年,而能耗峰值在2030年左右;按照丹麦方案,二氧化碳排放峰值320×108t出现在2025年,能耗峰值也大约在2030年,将达到273×108t标煤/a,人均3.3t标煤/a。碳排放峰值年越推迟,达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案,2030~2050年的20年间,需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳,同时与450情景方案相比,大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010~2020年的减排目标推算,2020年能耗为41×108t标煤,二氧化碳排放约74×108t,中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20%,就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效,这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。     

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies – Implication for UK decarbonisation targets

The UK government’s economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a ‘what-if’ framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented.     

An exploration of the technical feasibility of achieving CO2 emission reductions in excess of 60% within the UK housing stock by the year 2050

The aim of this paper is to explore the technological feasibility of achieving CO₂ emission reductions in excess of 60% within the UK housing stock by the middle of this century. In order to investigate this issue, the paper describes the development of a selectively disaggregated physically based bottom-up energy and CO₂ emission model of the UK housing stock. This model covers both the energy demand and energy supply side and has been used to develop and evaluate three illustrative scenarios for this sector. The results of the scenarios suggest that it may be technically easier, using currently available technology, to achieve CO₂ emission reductions in excess of 80% within the UK housing stock by the middle of this century. However, achieving these sorts of reductions will require strategic shifts in both energy supply and demand side technology.     

Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches

The UK government has set a groundbreaking target of a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 2050. Scenario and modelling assessment of this stringent target consistently finds that all sectors need to contribute to emissions reductions. The UK residential sector accounts for around 30% of the total final energy use and more than one-quarter of CO₂ emissions. This paper focuses on modelling of the residential sector in a system wide energy–economy models (UK MARKAL) and key UK sectoral housing stock models. The UK residential energy demand and CO₂ emission from the both approaches are compared. In an energy system with 60% economy-wide CO₂ reductions, the residential sector plays a commensurate role. Energy systems analysis finds this reduction is primarily driven by energy systems interactions notably decarbonisation of the power sector combined with increased appliance efficiency. The stock models find alternate decarbonisation pathways based on assumptions related to the future building stock and behavioural changes. The paper concludes with a discussion on the assumptions and drivers of emission reductions in different models of the residential energy sector.     

Demand reduction in the UK—with a focus on the non-domestic sector

A demand reduction strategy is considered in the context of the UK and in the light of the UK Government's 2006 Energy Review. This paper discusses how a mechanism—a Demand Reduction Obligation (DRO)—can be established to achieve radical energy demand reduction targets in electricity and gas use in the industrial, commercial and public administration sectors. A DRO would require energy suppliers to invest in energy-saving measures so as to reduce energy demand in these sectors. The investment for this activity would be funded by energy suppliers who would increase prices in order to cover the cost of achieving the carbon reductions. Public opinion surveys suggest that a large proportion of the public would prefer to support demand reduction measures compared to other energy options. It may be practical to deliver carbon emission reductions equivalent to around 30% of emissions from the UK electricity sector over a 15-year period through a broad-based demand reduction strategy. Demand reduction is considered in the context of an assessment of costs and resources available from other low carbon options including renewable energy and nuclear power.     

Refurbishment of public housing villas in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): energy and economic impact

This study aims at assessing the technical and economic benefits of refurbishing existing public housing villas in the UAE. Four representative federal public housing villas built between 1980s and 2010s were modeled and analyzed. The Integrated Environmental Solutions-Virtual Environment (IES-VE) energy modeling software was used to estimate the energy consumption and savings due to different refurbishment configurations applied to the villas. The refurbishment technical configurations were based on the UAE’s Estidama green buildings sustainability assessment system. The refurbishment configurations include upgrading three elements: the wall and roof insulation as well as replacing the glazing. The annual electricity savings results indicated that the most cost-efficient refurbishment strategy is upgrading of wall insulation (savings up to 20.8 %) followed by upgrading the roof’s insulation (savings up to 11.6 %) and lastly replacing the glazing (savings up to 3.2 %). When all three elements were refurbished simultaneously, savings up to 36.7 % were achieved (villa model 670). The savings translated to CO₂ emission reduction of 22.6 t/year. The simple and discounted payback periods for the different configurations tested ranged between 8 and 28 and 10 and 50 years, respectively.     

Techno-economic and behavioural analysis of battery electric,hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system in the UK

This paper conducts a techno-economic study on hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCV), Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and hydrogen Fuel Cell plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (FCHEV) in the UK using cost predictions for 2030. The study includes an analysis of data on distance currently travelled by private car users daily in the UK. Results show that there may be diminishing economic returns for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) with battery sizes above 20 kWh, and the optimum size for a PHEV battery is between 5 and 15 kWh. Differences in behaviour as a function of vehicle size are demonstrated, which decreases the percentage of miles that can be economically driven using electricity for a larger vehicle. Decreasing carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation by 80% favours larger optimum battery sizes as long as carbon is priced, and will reduce emissions considerably. However, the model does not take into account reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from hydrogen generation, assuming hydrogen will still be produced from steam reforming methane in 2030.     

Impacts of China's emissions trading schemes on deployment of power generation with carbon capture and storage

The establishment of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in China creates the potential for a “least cost” solution for achieving the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions required for China to meet its Paris Agreement pledges. China has pledged to reduce CO₂ intensity by 60–65% in 2030 relative to 2005 and to stop the increase in absolute CO₂ emissions around 2030. In this series of studies, we enhance the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to include the latest assessments of the costs of power generation technologies in China to evaluate the impacts of different potential ETS pathways on deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. This paper reports the results from baseline scenarios where power generation prices are assumed to be homogeneous across the country for a given mode of generation. We find that there are different pathways where CCS might play an important role in reducing the emission intensity in China's electricity sector, especially for low carbon intensity targets consistent with the ultimate goals of the Paris Agreement. Uncertainty about the exact technology mix suggests that decision makers should be wary of picking winning technologies, and should instead seek to provide incentives for emission reductions. While it will be challenging to meet the CO₂ intensity target of 550 g/kWh for the electric power sector by 2020, multiple pathways exist for achieving lower targets over a longer timeframe. Our initial analysis shows that carbon prices of 35–40$/tCO₂ make CCS technologies on coal-based generation cost-competitive against other modes of generation and that carbon prices higher than 100$/tCO₂ favor a major expansion of CCS. The next step is to confirm these initial results with more detailed modeling that takes into account granularity across China's energy sector at the provincial level.     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅰ)——中国分阶段温室气体减排目标的提出及其依据

减少温室气体排放已刻不容缓,一系列研究显示,温升2℃是人类生活不受气候变化干扰的上限,大致550μL/L二氧化碳当量的温室气体浓度或约450～500μL/L的二氧化碳浓度对应2℃的温升。达到稳定浓度时的2005年以后的累积排放量和2005年的排碳数据一起才可以计算出最终的减排量化指标,而拐点年代和逐年排放量是可调控的动态指标。核实本世纪上半叶的累积排放量,并将排放额度分解到各个国家和地区是一项十分艰巨且很迫切的任务。我国的碳减排可分为2005～2020年的前期、2021～2035年的中期和2036～2050年的后期。权威部门曾推算了一系列数据,但与当前掌握的实际数据对比,对2010年的碳排放预测数据均偏低。有学者提出我国2005～2050年间的排碳额度为370Gt,约为全世界的28%,比例基本合理。如果2050年二氧化碳排放总量确定为140×108t,则中国为40×108t,人均2.6t,形势非常严峻。把我国2020年二氧化碳排放量控制在100×108t以内十分必要;我国碳减排中期处于拐点过渡期,我国的拐点将直接影响世界的拐点,应争取拐点出现在2025年,过渡期为2020～2030年;我国2050年与2035年的二氧化碳排放量差值应为45×108t,只要依靠非化石能源替代化石能源、采用CCS技术、最大限度地采用零碳排放甚至负碳排放的替代燃料就能得到控制,但仍然存在许多不确定因素,有待深入研究。     

Personal carbon trading: A policy ahead of its time?

In 2008, the UK government undertook a review of personal carbon trading (PCT) and declared that it was ‘an idea currently ahead of its time’. PCT is a radical policy proposal which would entail all adults receiving an equal, tradable carbon allowance to cover emissions from household energy and/or personal travel. The allowance would reduce over time, in line with national emissions reduction goals. The government’s key concerns about PCT were its social unacceptability and high cost. This paper reviews the literature and identifies knowledge gaps, and then discusses whether these concerns are justified. Contrary to the government’s conclusions, most research shows PCT to be at least as socially acceptable as an alternative taxation policy. People think it could be both fair and effective. Set-up and running costs for PCT will undoubtedly be higher than for alternative taxation policies. However, PCT could deliver benefits from individual and social change motivated by non-economic aspects of the policy. These potential benefits are outlined here. The conclusion is that PCT is a promising and timely policy idea.     

Subsidy as an agent to enhance the effectiveness of the energy performance certificate

Since more than two-thirds of the United Kingdom housing stock in 2050 will comprise houses that have already been built, the need for a focus of policy on the already-built private housing stock is apparent. This study examines the impact that subsidy can make in bolstering the performance of the Energy Performance Certificate by reducing carbon emissions in the residential sector. The results of a survey of new homeowners’ uptake of nine commonly installed energy saving measures in response to subsidy are examined. A cost–benefit analysis is performed using the recently introduced concept of the Shadow Price of Carbon and a model is presented which allows the carbon savings for any level of subsidy to be calculated. The model suggests that subsidisation of the installation of hot water tank insulation, draught proofing measures, loft insulation and cavity wall insulation may be cost-effective, but that the subsidisation of others, most notably interior solid wall insulation, are unlikely to significantly bolster carbon savings.     

Air-source heat pump carbon footprints: HFC impacts and comparison to other heat sources

European governments see that heat pumps could reduce carbon emissions in space- and hot-water heating. EU’s Renewable Energy Directive designates heat pumps as renewable – eligible for various subsidies – if their carbon footprints are below an implied, average threshold. This threshold omits carbon generated by manufacture and emission of a heat-pump’s fluorocarbon refrigerant. It also omits the footprint of the heat pump’s hardware. To see if these omissions are significant, this study calculated carbon footprints of representative, residential heat pumps in the UK.     

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.     

Bottom–Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS)—an international appliance efficiency policy tool

The Bottom–Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) calculates potential energy and greenhouse gas emission impacts of efficiency policies for lighting, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, appliances, and industrial equipment through 2030. The model includes 16 end use categories and covers 11 individual countries plus the European Union. BUENAS is a bottom–up stock accounting model that predicts energy consumption for each type of equipment in each country according to engineering-based estimates of annual unit energy consumption, scaled by projections of equipment stock. Energy demand in each scenario is determined by equipment stock, usage, intensity, and efficiency. When available, BUENAS uses sales forecasts taken from country studies to project equipment stock. Otherwise, BUENAS uses an econometric model of household appliance uptake developed by the authors. Once the business as usual scenario is established, a high-efficiency policy scenario is constructed that includes an improvement in the efficiency of equipment installed in 2015 or later. Policy case efficiency targets represent current “best practice” and include standards already established in a major economy or well-defined levels known to enjoy a significant market share in a major economy. BUENAS calculates energy savings according to the difference in energy demand in the two scenarios. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation is then calculated using a forecast of electricity carbon factor. We find that mitigation of 1075 mt annual CO₂ emissions is possible by 2030 from adopting current best practices of appliance efficiency policies. This represents a 17 % reduction in emissions in the business as usual case in that year.     

考虑碳排放权交易的短期节能调度

针对如何降低火电系统CO2排放量问题,简要介绍了碳排放权交易的理论,提出在电力系统短期调度中引进碳排放权交易机制,以进行总量控制,逐渐减小CO2排放量。在电力市场条件下,分别以CO2排放最小、火电厂收益最大和电网购电费用最小为目标建立优化数学模型。采用水电调峰法对改进的IEEE14节点系统算例进行分析,验证所建立的模型的合理性。结果表明,目前在我国以火电为主系统中考虑碳排放权交易,可以降低火电的减排成本,有利于控制总体排放水平。