上海天然气市场和液化天然气的现状与展望

2009年,上海能源供应体系自从引入液化天然气以来,进口液化天然气对全市天然气供应总量和来源多元化做出了重要贡献。2013年,液化天然气消费在全市天然气消费总量中占比达50%,在天然气供应体系中发挥了越来越重要的作用。近年来,上海天然气市场发生了深刻变化,天然气需求增长放缓,与2013年之前十多年的两位数增长形成了鲜明对比。为了更好地理解市场的基本面,首先回顾了上海天然气消费的历史趋势,随后分析了影响需求增长的驱动因素和约束条件,以判断未来天然气需求的趋势和液化天然气在市场中扮演的角色,认为天然气需求增长的潜力主要在民用及商业领域。结合分析可能的供应选择,其结论是未来液化天然气将继续作为上海天然气供应体系的主力气源,同时提供市场急需的灵活性以保障高峰时段的用气需求。     

The economic impact of price controls on China's natural gas supply chain

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain controlled by the government. To assess how such distortions impact the market, we have developed a Mixed Complementarity Problem model of China's natural gas industry, with a novel representation of price caps associated with supply obligations. The model is used to assess how government pricing policies and restricted third party access to midstream infrastructure impacted the supply logistics of China's profit maximizing natural gas firms in the year 2015. We find that lifting the price caps for regulated natural gas demand sectors could yield a 4.7% (1.4 billion USD) reduction in total system cost and reduce the national average of marginal supply costs by 14%. Improving third party access to the pipeline and regasification infrastructure would result in an additive total cost saving of 7.6% (2.2 billion USD) and a 16% reduction in average prices, due to replacing domestic and imported LNG with pipeline imports. The LNG industry would be negatively affected by the reforms investigated in this study, as market players would gain more flexibility in their logistics and would utilize lower cost supply pathways.     

我国东南沿海液化天然气发展问题

近年来随着油价高启,液化天然气价格不断攀升,对中国液化天然气发展带来巨大的挑战,应客观冷静地规划国内液化天然气项目,按照市场承受能力有序实施进口液化天然气接收站建设,优先考虑广东、福建、浙江、上海和珠海经济发达省市。首先建成东南沿海天然气配送主干线,并在2015年左右形成中国东南沿海天然气供应网络,满足东南沿海省市经济发展对能源的需求,确保我国东南沿海地区能源安全稳定供应。     

The Asia Pacific natural gas market: Large enough for all?

Among natural gas producing nations, there has been some concern about how the Asia Pacific will meet future demand for energy. We argue that natural gas, both regional and global, will play a vital role. Estimates of potential gas consumption in the region are analyzed and used to develop consensus projections to 2030. These consumption profiles are compared with gas supply estimates including indigenous, pipeline and LNG for the Asia Pacific market. From this analytical framework, we find that demand will be sufficiently large to accommodate supplies from diverse sources including North America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and the Asia Pacific itself. An important policy implication is that gas producing and consuming nations should benefit from promoting gas trade and not be concerned about a situation of potential lack of demand coupled with oversupply.     

日本地震对世界和我国液化天然气产业的影响

2011年3月,日本东北部太平洋海域发生大地震和海啸,导致日本大批发电机组受损,引发福岛核泄漏事故,对世界和我国液化天然气(LNG)产业的发展产生了深远的影响。短期来看,多家日本电力公司大量采购LNG弥补电力缺口,短期和现货LNG市场趋紧,价格上涨;长期来看,福岛核泄漏事故对世界各国的核电规划与发展造成影响,世界LNG潜在需求增加,长期LNG资源的价格博弈愈加激烈。LNG作为我国天然气供应的重要组成部分,对调整我国能源消费结构、实现我国碳减排目标、保障我国沿海地区天然气安全稳定供应意义重大。当前世界LNG市场形势复杂多变,建议继续密切跟踪国内外形势变化,及时调整资源合作与开发策略,实现我国液化天然气产业的可持续发展。     

The prospects for liquefied natural gas development in the US

The objective of our paper is to analyze the prospects for LNG development in the US. In particular, we discuss LNG investment projects with respect to natural gas supply and demand, existing transmission infrastructure, and competing pipeline projects. At the same time potential competition between natural gas and coal in power generation is taken into account. We conclude that in the mid-term, LNG will assume an essential role in meeting US demand because of stagnating and declining domestic production in North America accompanied by an expected increase in demand for natural gas. Additional net imports will be required in the western US (mainly southern California), the Southeast, and in the Northeast—three areas of the nation that lack adequate supply. When accounting for the current status of existing natural gas infrastructure and forthcoming investments, we conclude that there should be little concern about sufficient investment incentives and supply security in the US competitive natural gas market.     

Economics of U.S. natural gas exports: Should regulators limit U.S. LNG exports?

This study assesses the level and destination of U.S. LNG exports, using a global natural market model under a wide range of EMF 31 scenarios. The scenarios reflect different U.S. natural gas resource outlooks, market conditions, changing U.S. environmental regulations, and possible changes in geopolitical conditions that affect the global natural gas demand and supply. U.S. LNG exports respond to market conditions under each scenario and are free from any artificial limits. In the near-term, U.S. LNG exports are uncompetitive in the Reference case and in the long-run U.S. LNG exports are significant when U.S. natural gas resources are plentiful. However under demand shocks (increase demand in Asia) or supply shocks (reduction in Russian supplies) or persistence of oil-indexed pricing cases, U.S. LNG exports become competitive to varying degrees. U.S. exports depend not only on U.S. economics but also on how U.S. prices change relative to price changes in other regions of the world. We conclude that limiting U.S. LNG exports is inconsistent with simulated uncertainties, and it should be left to the market to determine the levels and destination of exports.     

Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model

Growth in gas demand poses a challenge for European energy consumers and other gas-importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security. This paper focuses on interactions among demand, supply, and investments in natural gas corridors, namely pipeline transport, LNG, and storage facilities, affecting the European natural gas market over the period 2005–2030. A number of policy scenarios, including a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in Europe. The analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations. Analysis of scenarios of supply interruption, in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes, indicates that portions of Europe could experience price increases of up to 100% in the case of a year-long interruption. To accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions, pipeline connections running from East to West need to be given special priority.     

Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market

The Netherlands have been a pivotal supplier in Western European natural gas markets in the last decades. Recent analyses show that the Netherlands would play an important role in replacing Russian supplies in Germany and France in case of a Russian export disruption. Lately, however, the Netherlands have suffered from a series of earthquakes that are related to the natural gas production in the major Groningen field. By consequence, natural gas production rates – that are politically mandated in the Netherlands – have been substantially reduced, by almost 45% in 2015 compared to 2013-levels. We implement this reduced production path for the next decades in the Global Gas Model and analyse the geopolitical impacts. We find that the diversification of European natural gas imports allows spreading the replacement of Dutch natural gas over many alternative sources, with diverse pipeline and LNG supplies. There will be hardly any price or demand reduction effect. Even if Russia fails to supply Europe, the additional impact of the lower Dutch production is moderate. Hence, the European consumers need not to worry about the declining Dutch natural gas production and their security of supplies.     

Can the Shanghai LNG Price Index indicate Chinese market? An econometric investigation using price discovery theory

China became the world’s second largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer in 2018 but has faced extremely high import costs due to a lack of bargaining power. Assessments of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, first released in 2015, are vital for improving the understanding of these cost dynamics. This paper, using the LNG price index data from the Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange (SHPGX) coupled with domestic and international LNG prices from July 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018, estimates several econometric models to evaluate the long-term and short-term equilibriums of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, the responses to market information shocks and the leading or lagging relationships with LNG and alternative energy prices from other agencies. The results show that the LNG price index of the SHPGX has already exhibited a long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment mechanisms to reflect the average price level and market movements, but the market information transparency and price discovery efficiency of the index are still inadequate. China’s LNG market is still relatively independent of other natural gas markets, and marketization reforms are under way in China. The influence of the SHPGX LNG price index on the trading decisions of market participants is expected to improve with further development of China’s LNG reforms, the formation of a natural gas entry-exit system, and the increasing liquidity of the hub.     

The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe,the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market—Model-based analysis until 2030

Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions’ favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries.     

Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the “bridging fuel” to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030.     

Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model

Strategic behaviour by gas producers is likely to affect future gas prices and investments in the European Union (EU). To analyse this issue, a computational game theoretic model is presented that is based on a recursive-dynamic formulation. This model addresses interactions among demand, supply, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport, storage and investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005–2030. Three market scenarios are formulated to study the impact of producer market power. In addition, tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, and storage are explored. The model runs indicate that LNG can effectively compete with pipelines in the near future. Further, significant decreases in Cournot prices between 2005 and 2010 indicate that near-term investments in EU gas transport capacity are likely to diminish market power by making markets more accessible.     

中国沿海清洁能源供给战略研究

中国未来经济发展,仍然以珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和环渤海地区为龙头,带动中国其他地区经济发展,沿海12个省市2002年国内生产总值占全国国内生产总值的68.6%,呈迅猛发展势头。目前沿海能源生产远远不能满足需求,实现沿海经济可持续发展,迫切需要天然气这一清洁能源作为保证。我国“西气东输”和“广东进口液化天然气”项目是国家清洁能源战略中的两项重大举措,通过国内天然气和国外进口液化天然气两种资源,建成沿海天然气配送主干线,并在沿海形成清洁能源供应网络,提高清洁能源供应稳定性,满足沿海省市经济发展对能源的需求,确保我国沿海地区能源安全稳定供应。     

LNG development across Europe: Infrastructural and regulatory analysis

In this paper, a cross-section infrastructural and regulatory analysis of the European LNG sector is presented. The LNG chain is maintained as being a good tool to enlarge the number of natural gas exporters to Europe, adding in this way to competition and to the achievement of the targets of the liberalisation process, which is a decrease in price for final customers and security of supply. The main reason for this is to be identified in the minor specificity of the regasification-plant-related investment compared with pipeline transportation. As a matter of fact, as the infrastructural analysis will show, the construction of new LNG receiving terminals is likely to bring about an increase in the number of importers fostering competition among them and shrinking their margins among the value chain. In this context, regulation is meant to play a key role in promoting investments without hindering competition. Nevertheless it is questionable whether LNG will be able to introduce competition beyond the European border (that is among producers) according to the forecasted supply and demand balance that is leading to a seller's market in the upstream sector. In this case, a huger part of the rent would go to the exporters leaving minor scope for competition down the European border.     

文莱LNG的生产和出口

文莱在东盟地区天然气市场中占据着重要地位,其天然气储量为13.8×1012ft3,生产的天然气主要以LNG的形式出口至日本和韩国.文莱的天然气主要由文莱壳牌石油公司(BSP)进行生产,道达尔旗下的两个近海油田也提供一小部分天然气.生产的天然气在文莱液化天然气公司(BLNG)所属的液化处理厂进行液化处理,LNG年生产能力720×104t.文莱国内的天然气消费通过文莱石油销售公司(BSM)供应,其余的天然气由文莱壳牌油轮公司(BST)和文莱天然气油轮公司(BGC)运往海外.白1990年以来,文莱就一直将80％左右的天然气都出口到海外市场.从1973年开始,文莱每年向日本输出500×104t的LNG,1999年又签订了增加供货协议,每年增加到601×104t.韩国与文莱在1997年签订了为期16年的合同,保证每年70×104t的LNG供应.面对2013年即将到期的合同,日、韩两国都加紧了确保LNG长期供应的步伐.这使得中国、印度等国从文莱进口大量LNG的机会变小,但是通过日本和韩国在文莱整个LNG供应链建设过程中所付出的努力,其他LNG进口国至少能够借鉴到保障能源供应的一点经验.     

世界液化天然气的发展趋势

介绍了世界液化天然气（LNG）市场的分布情况。分析了世界LNG交易出现了多元化的趋势,LNG贸易合同更加多样灵活．买卖双方参与更多的LNG业务。指出世界LNG项目建设规模扩大,建设成本压力增大。预测世界LNG价格在短期内将呈价位下行波动态势．从长期看仍将保持高位上升波动态势;天然气将继续保持旺盛的需求,LNG产业市场前景广阔。     

天然气下游市场和终端用户定价机制亟待规范

为保障我国“十二五”的经济发展并满足节能减排的要求,需要快速拓展天然气市场.然而与世界发达国家相比,由于经济发展程度不同以及货币汇率差等原因,导致中国天然气各类下游市场用户对天然气价格的承受能力不同,上网电价和天然气价格倒挂成为天然气市场拓展的主要制约因素.掌控中国天然气上、中游的供气价格,首先要尽可能快速增加国产天然气、特别是非常规天然气的产量,以较低的价格对冲较高的进口气价;同时要掌控基于门站价的下游用户终端气价,这就需要尽可能减少从门站到终端用户的下游供气成本,而其关键在于降低交易成本.目前中国天然气下游市场存在许多亟待解决的问题,鉴于此,建议要明确各省“门站”和省天然气“门站价”的定义;“省内管网”应是省内国家主干管网与在其基础上“完善和延伸管线”的总和;省管网公司不应是一级交易平台,而是一个管理机构;规范城市燃气公司特许经营权范围,“终端大用户”和城市燃气管网终端用户适用不同的天然气价格;按照市场机制理顺天然气下游不同用户价格.如此就有可能使占下游市场份额60％的大用户市场快速开拓.     

LNG as a strategy to establish developing countries’ gas markets: The Brazilian case

This paper aims to evaluate, from a Brazilian case study, if the natural gas trade can be viewed as a good opportunity for developing countries located geographically close to Western Europe and North America gas markets. Initially, the paper presents an overview of the Brazilian natural gas industry and evaluates the balance between supply and demand in each main region of Brazil. Then, it analyzes the evolution of the international gas trade, which is expected to increase rapidly (LNG particularly). Finally, the paper analyses the financial viability of the Brazilian LNG project in a context of high volatility of natural gas prices in the international market. To take this uncertainty into account, North-American natural gas prices are modelled according to the ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK process (with EIA data over the period 1985–2003). By using an approach based on Monte-Carlo simulations and under the assumption that imports are guaranteed since the North American gas price would be higher than the breakeven of the Brazilian project, the model aims to test the hypothesis that export can promote the development of the Brazilian Northeastern gas market. LNG project is here compared to the Petrobras pipelines project, which is considered as the immediate solution for the Northeastern gas shortage. As a conclusion, this study shows that the LNG export will be vulnerable to the risks associated to the natural gas prices volatility observed on the international market.