基于灰水足迹的安顺市工业经济增长与水环境协调关系分析

为定量评价安顺市工业经济增长与水环境的协调关系,通过估算安顺市2004~2014年工业灰水足迹,用脱钩模型分析工业经济增长与水环境的协调关系。研究表明,安顺市2004~2014年工业灰水足迹波动上升,年均工业灰水足迹为3.255 2×10~8m~3;安顺市2006~2014年工业灰水足迹强度逐年递减,由2006年的1 069.86 m~3/万元减少到2014年的210.39 m~3/万元;研究时段内安顺市工业水环境压力指数变化大,其中2013年水环境压力指数最高,工业水环境压力高低与当年水资源量呈较强的负相关;从协调关系看,安顺市2006年工业经济增长与水环境未脱钩,2005、2007~2010、2014年绝对脱钩,2011~2013年相对脱钩。这表明安顺市在治理水污染过程中不能忽视工业污染物排放带来的影响。     

水资源管理中的水-能源-经济耦合关系

为研究水资源、能源与社会经济之间的耦合协调关系及时序变化特征,基于水资源管理"三条红线"制度的内涵,建立了水资源-能源-经济系统的耦合协调评价指标体系,利用耦合协调模型定量分析整个系统的协调发展水平及子系统相互之间的耦合关系。以山东省为例,分析其2005～2016年水-能源-经济系统的耦合协调发展水平及变化特征。发现山东省水资源、能源与社会经济一直处于高水平耦合阶段,相互作用程度显著;耦合协调度呈波动式上升状态,从勉强协调发展类升至中级协调发展类,但三者之间仍存在较大的耦合协调空间,故应提高水资源与能源的开发利用效率,加强环境保护力度,促进区域经济的协调可持续发展。     

重庆都市区居民食品水足迹消耗供需平衡研究

研究食品水足迹消耗对区域水资源持续利用具有重要意义。基于虚拟水和水足迹理论,核算了2001～2011年重庆都市区食品水足迹供给量、食品水足迹消耗量和食品水足迹贸易量,并分析三者变化的原因。研究结果表明,食品水足迹供给量由2001年的20.05×108m3下降到2011年的17.43×108m3,食品水足迹消耗量由2001年的35.43×108m3增长到2011年的46.57×108m3;食品水足迹供给量小于消耗量,食品水足迹进口量由2001年的18.343×108m3增长到2011年的30.882×108m3。生产规模缩小是食品水足迹供给量下降的原因,人口增长和生活水平提高导致食品水足迹消耗量增长。在进口食品水足迹的同时需改进生产方式和调整食品消耗模式,以缓解食品水足迹供需矛盾。     

基于健康风险的致癌重金属灰水足迹研究

基于健康风险理论,构建了致癌重金属灰水足迹评估价模型,并将其应用于我国致癌重金属灰水足迹评价中。结果表明,我国的总致癌重金属灰水足迹为4 390.6×108 m3,且关键污染物为六价铬与砷;我国的致癌重金属灰水足迹分布有显著的地区差异,其中华中地区的镉灰水足迹、砷灰水足迹和总致癌重金属灰水足迹分别为181.11×108、1 281.51×108、1 352.13×108 m3,均为全国最高;华东地区的六价铬灰水足迹为1 063.24×108 m3,为全国最高;湖南省、江西省、浙江省分别为我国镉灰水足迹、砷灰水足迹和六价铬灰水足迹最高的省份。     

基于秩次差异的贵州省水资源与社会经济匹配特征分析

为量化水资源与社会经济的匹配特征,提出了一种基于秩次差异的基尼系数计算方法,分析了贵州省2000～2019年水资源与社会经济匹配关系的时空变化特征。结果表明,在时间上,贵州省年内水资源与社会经济之间的差异主要在行政区的秩次差异上,且在GDP与水资源的匹配关系上尤为突出;在空间上,贵阳市和黔南州的人口与水资源的差异程度较大,贵阳市和黔东南州的GDP与水资源的差异程度较大。因此,协调水资源与社会经济发展之间的矛盾对促进贵州省人水经济和谐发展意义重大。     

新常态下北京市经济增长与能源消费脱钩关系研究

能源消费增速是判断经济发展状况的一个重要先行指标,但随着经济增长动力转换、产业结构和能源结构调整升级、能源利用效率提高,实现经济增长与能源消费脱钩是完全可行的。运用脱钩理论及脱钩指数分解模型对北京市2000—2017年经济增长与能源消费的脱钩状态进行测度,结果显示自2000年以来北京市经济增长与能源消费之间呈现出相对脱钩关系,技术进步带来的能源效率提高是推进"脱钩"的关键因素。在经济发展新常态进入新阶段的历史时期,未来能源发展路径在满足安全可靠、绿色低碳、节约优先、智能高效的前提下,到2030年北京市能源消费将达到峰值,经济增长与能源消费逐步由"相对脱钩"转向"绝对脱钩",并在2033年后实现经济增长与能源消费的"绝对脱钩"。     

淮河流域总用水量与用水结构变化的响应

淮河流域面临诸多水资源问题,研究其总用水量与用水结构变化的响应关系,对优化用水结构、落实流域最严格水资源管理制度具有重要意义。以淮河流域1997～2016年的总用水量和农业、工业、生活用水量数据为基础,采用VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数,借助Eviews软件,探析淮河流域总用水量与用水结构变动之间的响应关系。结果表明,淮河流域总用水量的变化受农业用水比例变化的影响程度最大;工业用水比例的变化对总用水量的影响存在一定滞后性;淮河流域总用水量与生活用水比例之间呈负响应关系,农业用水比例的变动对总用水量的正向影响比工业用水比例大。通过减小农业的用水比例、调控工业的用水比例、适当加大生活的用水比例等措施,尽量调整、优化淮河流域的用水结构,从而使淮河流域的用水结构更为均衡合理。     

中国非水可再生能源电力生产与消纳时空演变及驱动机制分析北大核心CSCD

掌握演化特征和驱动机理是实现可再生能源电力发展规划和管理优化的基础。文章基于空间重心模型、标准差椭圆分析法和空间错位模型分析了我国省域非水可再生能源电力生产、消纳空间分布特征和趋势,并运用偏最小二乘回归分析法探析其发展驱动机制。研究结果表明:我国非水可再生能源电力生产和消纳重心向东南移动的趋势明显,且消纳重心位于生产重心东南侧;非水可再生能源电力生产和消纳重心空间耦合错位明显,但程度较稳定,变动一致性基本同步;我国非水可再生能源电力生产与消纳基本呈东西向扩散,但扩散方向性减弱,发展地域均匀性加强;省域非水可再生能源电力生产与消纳空间呈现负向错位为主的特征,从西北到东南呈现正向-负向错位;各因素对非水可再生能源发展作用方向和强度存在明显的地域差异性。     

基于微藻气候生长模型的微藻柴油水足迹分析

基于微藻的气候生长模型,对位于杭州、威海、海口和武汉的同型开放式跑道池微藻柴油生产系统进行以月份为基准的系统水需求量和生命周期水足迹评估。结果显示:受地域和季节变化的影响,该系统生产的微藻柴油的生命周期水足迹、系统水需求量、系统柴油生产量和系统正常运行时间均会发生较大变化。上述4个地区中,武汉系统生产的微藻柴油具有最高的年平均生命周期水足迹,在各月份生产的微藻生物柴油的生命周期水足迹在2621～6020 m~3/t之间;灰水足迹是微藻柴油生命周期水足迹的最大组成部分,占比在55%以上。     

区域水-能源资源的空间分布特征及匹配格局分析

以我国大陆地区的30个省(自治区、直辖市)为例,选取其2005~2014年的水资源和能源资源数据,利用重心和标准差椭圆空间统计方法及洛伦茨曲线和基尼系数计算方法,量化分析区域水—能源资源的空间分布特征及匹配格局。结果表明,现状年(2014年)下,水与能源的重心均远离区域几何中心,空间分布均极不均衡;从标准差椭圆看,水资源主要分布区域在我国东南部,面积约249.26×104km2,大致呈东-西走向,能源主要分布区域在我国中北部,面积约113.84×104km2,显著呈东北-西南走向;水与能源间的基尼系数高达0.863,呈极度不匹配的空间格局。2005~2014年,水资源重心由北向南移动,主体走向偏东-西,主要分布区域趋于聚集,空间分布不均衡程度增加;能源资源重心由南向北移动,主体走向偏东北-西南,主要分布区域微弱扩散,南北方能源资源丰度间的差距变大;水与能源在空间上的聚集和分布的差异性增加,不匹配程度在波动中缓慢上升。     

The causal relationship between energy use and economic growth in Switzerland

This paper investigates the relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in Switzerland over the period 1950–2010. We apply bounds testing techniques to different energy types separately. Robustness tests are performed by including additional variables and restricting the analysis to the period after 1970. The results show that there exist robust long-run relationships going from real GDP toward heating oil and electricity consumption. The relationship between heating oil and GDP is in fact bidirectional, although weaker from heating oil toward GDP than in the reverse direction. When investigating the period 1970–2010 only, the estimate of the long-run income elasticity of electricity consumption loses statistical significance and that for heating oil becomes negative. Those results imply a possible decoupling between GDP growth and energy consumption, so that energy conservation policies are not necessarily expected to have a negative impact on Swiss economic growth.     

A nonparametric analysis of energy environmental Kuznets Curve in Chinese Provinces

Energy resources are an important material foundation for the survival and development of human society, and the relationship between energy and economy is interactive and complementary. This paper analyzes the energy consumption–economic growth nexus in Chinese provinces using novel and recent nonparametric time-series as well as panel data empirical approaches. The dataset covers 30 provinces over the period of 1980–2018. The empirical analysis indicates the presence of a nonlinear functional form and smooth structural changes in most of the provinces. The nonparametric empirical analysis validates the presence of a nonlinear unit root problem in energy consumption and economic growth, and nonlinear cointegration between the variables. Additionally, the nonparametric panel cointegration test reports evidence of convergence in energy consumption and economic growth patterns across the provinces. The nonparametric regression analysis finds economic growth to have a positive effect, on average, on energy consumption in all provinces, except for Beijing. Further, the energy environmental Kuznets curve exists between economic growth and energy consumption in 20 out of 30 Chinese provinces. The Granger causality analysis reveals the presence of a mixed causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. The empirical findings have important implications for Chinese authorities in planning for improving energy efficiency, decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption, and reducing the environmental footprint of provinces.     

Decoupling of emissions and GDP: Evidence from aggregate and provincial Chinese data

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GDP in China using both aggregate and provincial data. The trend or Kuznets elasticity is about 0.6 for China, higher than that in advanced countries but below that of major emerging markets. The elasticity is somewhat lower for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions, providing mild evidence consistent with the “pollution haven” hypothesis. The Kuznets elasticity is much lower for the last three decades than for the three previous decades, suggesting a longer-term trend toward decoupling as China has become richer. Further evidence of this comes from provincial data: richer provinces tend to have smaller Kuznets elasticities than poorer ones. In addition to the trend relationship, we find that there is a cyclical relation also holding in China.     

Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data

This paper estimates the real gross domestic product (GDP) and unrecorded economy for Turkey using the Kalman filter technique. Using different tests, most of the research articles on energy policy investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP for different countries. On the other hand, other studies on climate change try to show the effects of both energy consumption and GDP on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission. Since the unreported economy has an important weight in developing countries where the recorded (or official) GDP suffers from considerable measurement problems, investigation of the relationship between the recorded GDP and energy consumption may lead to biased results. In this paper, the economic variables (GDP, country population) as well as environmental variables (CO₂ emission, forest area) are used in order to estimate GDP, which is an unobserved variable in our model. The results clearly indicate that: first, the true GDP in Turkey, that our model estimates, is higher than the observed (recorded) GDP in the whole period of observation (1973–2003) and the size of unrecorded economy varies between 12 and 30 percent of the observed GDP; second, the gap between the true GDP and the observed GDP has an increasing trend; third, if the change in GDP per primary energy supply is smaller than the change in CO₂ per primary energy supply, then there may exist unrecorded economy.     

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48–0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41–0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort.     

Decoupling factors on the energy–output linkage: The Spanish case

The recent increase of energy intensity in Spain and the ratification of the Kyoto protocol call for the implementation of energy policies in Spain. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Energy Consumption (EC) by taking into account several decoupling factors that can affect this linkage. Specifically, we have considered the temporal aggregation of data and its seasonal adjustments, the multivariate methodology, the substitution between EC and other inputs and the technological changes. Empirical tests reveal a long-run relationship between EC and GDP that can only be established in a complete way with a multivariate cointegration analysis. Furthermore, a short-run unidirectional causality from EC to economic growth is found. Therefore, primary EC plays an important role as a limiting factor for economic growth in Spain in the short-run.     

Economic reform,energy, and development: the case of Mexican manufacturing

Given increasing concern over global climate change and national security there is a burgeoning interest in examining the relationship between economic growth and energy use in developed and developing countries. More specifically, decoupling energy use per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) has fast come to be seen as in the interests of national economies and the world as a whole. Recent attention has been paid to the dramatic decreases in the energy intensity of the Chinese economy, which fell by 55% between 1975 and 1995. Do other developing economies follow similar trajectories?This paper examines the energy intensity of the Mexican economy for the period 1988–1998. Although the long-term trend in Mexican energy intensity is rising, the energy intensity of the Mexican economy began to decline in 1988. This paper explores the factors that have contributed to this reduction. Diminishing Mexican energy use per unit of GDP has been driven by significant decreases in industrial energy intensity. We show that these changes have resulted from changes in the composition of Mexican industrial structure, and technological change.     

Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions.     

Spatial relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in 26 European countries

The relationship between economic growth (GDP) and renewable energy consumption in different regions has been studied using diverse methods and data. However, most of these studies focus on the temporal aspect but do not explain the spatial relationship between GDP and renewable energy since they assume that each country is an island unto itself and do not consider the possible spatial relationship between neighbouring countries. In this study, we have used a spatial Durbin model with panel data to investigate the spatial dependence between GDP and renewable energy consumption for 26 European countries over the period 1991–2015. We conclude that spatial dependence leads to a change in renewable energy consumption that affects the GDP of neighbouring countries. Specifically, a 1% increase in the renewable energy consumption of one country will increase economic growth by up to 0.054% in the GDP of its neighbouring countries.