The relationship between alcoholrelated traffic fatalities and per capita consumption of alcohol, Ontario, 1957–1983

In this research, the impact of per capita consumption of alcohol on alcohol-related traffic fatalities in Ontario between 1957 and 1983 was examined. Three measures of alcohol involvement were selected. The first, drinking drivers (police reported) involved in fatal accidents, was a direct measure. The second and third, single-vehicle fatal accidents and nighttime fatal accidents, were surrogate measures. Also, three corresponding measures of fatal accidents not involving alcohol (normal drivers [police reported] involved in fatal accidents, multiple vehicle fatal accidents, and daytime fatal accidents) were chosen to control for general road safety trends. The results of regression analyses indicated that both per capita consumption and general road safety trends were significant contributors to all three measures of alcohol-involved fatalities. These and other recent data suggest that any effort to prevent alcohol-related problems such as liver cirrhosis through control of per capita consumption will also have a beneficial impact on alcohol-related accidents.     

Active transportation: Do current traffic safety policies protect non-motorists?

Objective

This study investigated the impact that state traffic safety regulations have on non-motorist fatality rates.

Methods

Data obtained from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) were analyzed through a pooled time series cross-sectional model using fixed effects regression for all 50 states from 1999 to 2009. Two dependent variables were used in separate models measuring annual state non-motorist fatalities per million population, and the natural log of state non-motorist fatalities. Independent variables measuring traffic policies included state expenditures for highway law enforcement and safety per capita; driver cell phone use regulations; graduated driver license regulations; driver blood alcohol concentration regulations; bike helmet regulations; and seat belt regulations. Other control variables included percent of all vehicle miles driven that are urban and mean per capita alcohol consumption per year.

Results

Non-motorist traffic safety was positively impacted by state highway law enforcement and safety expenditures per capita, with a decrease in non-motorist fatalities occurring with increased spending. Per capita consumption of alcohol also influenced non-motorist fatalities, with higher non-motorist fatalities occurring with higher per capita consumption of alcohol. Other traffic safety covariates did not appear to have a significant impact on non-motorist fatality rates in the models.

Conclusion

Our research suggests that increased expenditures on state highway and traffic safety and the initiation/expansion of programs targeted at curbing both driver and non-motorist intoxication are a starting point for the implementation of traffic safety policies that reduce risks for non-motorists.     

Prediction of traffic fatalities and prospects for mobility becoming sustainable-safe

The macroscopic trend of road traffic fatalities in any motorized country is described and predicted by the product of rather well fitting functions of time for the exponential decay of fatality risk per unit of traffic volume and the S-shaped Gompertz function of traffic volume growth. This product defines a single-peaked development of road traffic deaths, where its peak reaches earlier the sooner and faster a nation or region motorizes massively. Since in developing countries long series of traffic volume data are absent, another model for the fit and prediction of road traffic fatalities for developing countries is used, based on the relationships of income level per capita with road traffic mortality. Also this model implies that at some point in time road traffic deaths will start declining for ever, also worldwide. After empirically derived corrections for missing or incomplete data and police under-reporting, it is estimated that 1·2 million deaths and almost 8 million serious injuries are caused by road traffic worldwide in 2000. Using realistic income level predictions the new income-dependent model predicts markedly later and higher fatality peaks than the verified time-dependent model. It might be assumed that the developing countries could learn faster to increase their road safety by knowledge transfer from developed countries. Four prediction scenarios are specified for modified income-dependent models of road traffic death and serious injury developments up to 2050. Depending on the scenario the world total of road fatalities begins to reduce soon or only after 2035 with a global peak of about 1·8 million road traffic deaths, where the national fatality reduction starts later the lower the national income per capita is. Without the potentially achievable learning scenario the road fatality reductions in developed countries may not be enough to compensate the road fatality increases in developing countries, while road fatality increases may even occur after 2060 in countries with the lowest levels of income per capita.     

The direct and indirect effects of corruption on motor vehicle crash deaths

Recent empirical research has found that there is an inverted U-shaped or Kuznets relationship between income and motor vehicle crash (MVC) deaths, such that MVC deaths increase as national income increases and decrease after reaching a critical level. Corruption has been identified as one of the underlying factors that could affect this relationship, primarily by undermining institutional development and effective enforcement schemes. The total effect of corruption can be decomposed into two components, a direct and an indirect effect. The direct effect measures the immediate impact of corruption on MVC deaths by undermining effective enforcement and regulations, while the indirect effect captures the impact of corruption on hindering increases in per capita income and the consequent impact of reduced income on MVC deaths. By influencing economic growth, corruption can lead to an increase or decrease in MVC deaths depending on the income level. Using data from 60 countries between 1982 and 2003, these effects are estimated using linear panel and fixed effects negative binomial models. The estimation results suggest that corruption has different direct effects for less developed and highly developed countries. It has a negative (decreasing) effect on MVC deaths for less developed countries and a positive (increasing) effect on MVC deaths for highly developed countries. For highly developed countries, the total effect is positive at lower per capita income levels, but decreases with per capita income and becomes negative at per capita income levels of about US$ 38,248. For less developed countries, the total effect is negative within the sample range and decreases with increased per capita income. In summary, the results of this study suggest that reduction of corruption is likely a necessary condition to effectively tackle road safety problems.     

Profiling drunk driving recidivists in Denmark

Drunk drivers are a menace to themselves and to other road users, as drunk driving significantly increases the risk of involvement in road accidents and the probability of severe or fatal injuries. Although injuries and fatalities related to road accidents have decreased in recent decades, the prevalence of drunk driving among drivers killed in road accidents has remained stable, at around 25% or more during the past 10 years. Understanding drunk driving, and in particular, recidivism, is essential for designing effective countermeasures, and accordingly, the present study aims at identifying the differences between non-drunk drivers, drunk driving non-recidivists and drunk driving recidivists with respect to their demographic and socio-economic characteristics, road accident involvement and other traffic and non-traffic-related law violations. This study is based on register-data from Statistics Denmark and includes information from 2008 to 2012 for the entire population, aged 18 or older, of Denmark. The results from univariate and multivariate statistical analyses reveal a five year prevalence of 17% for drunk driving recidivism, and a significant relation between recidivism and the drunk drivers’ gender, age, income, education, receipt of an early retirement pension, household type, and residential area. Moreover, recidivists are found to have a higher involvement in alcohol-related road accidents, as well as other traffic and, in particular, non-traffic-related offences. These findings indicate that drunk driving recidivism is more likely to occur among persons who are in situations of socio-economic disadvantage and marginalisation. Thus, to increase their effectiveness, preventive measures aiming to reduce drunk driving should also address issues related to the general life situations of the drunk driving recidivists that contribute to an increased risk of drunk driving recidivism.     

Drink-driving and the alcohol beverage industry: Will reducing per capita consumption solve the problem in the United Kingdom?

The impact of drinking and driving is one focus of the mounting concern in the West over the widespread incidence of alcohol-related problems. Conventional wisdom, in the United Kingdom as well as in other countries, suggests that reducing average consumption levels will diminish the impact of the negative effects of alcohol including drinking and driving. But whether policies designed to achieve changes in per capita consumption by increasing alcohol taxes across the board constitute the most effective strategy to reduce drinking and driving is called into question. A number of competing interventions directed at the alcohol beverage industry are analysed and new directions for producers and policymakers are proposed.     

An analysis of Malaysia road traffic death distribution by road environment

Various initiatives, strategies and programmes have been taken by the Government of Malaysia to resolve issues pertaining to road traffic deaths. Nevertheless, the implementation of the programmes outlined in Malaysian Road Safety Plan 2006 needs to be enhanced in order to achieve the set targets. In this regard, it is imperative for all parties concerning road safety to determine the factors that significantly contribute to road traffic deaths. According to the Ministry of Works, Malaysia, the blackspot treatment programme (which is centred on the elimination of road hazards by engineering approaches) is successful in reducing the number of injuries due to road traffic accidents up to a certain extent. This study is focussed on analysing road traffic deaths caused by various road environment elements recorded by the police from 2000 to 2011 in order to determine their distribution, proportion and relationship with fatal accidents. The Chi-square test and Marascuilo procedure with 5% level of significance are used in this study. Based on locality, the number of road traffic deaths in rural area (66%) is significantly higher compared with that in urban areas (34%). Based on road category, the number of road traffic deaths is the highest for federal roads, whereas the highest rate of fatalities per kilometre is recorded for expressways. Based on road segment, the number of road traffic deaths is the highest for straight road segments, followed by bends. In addition, the number of road traffic deaths is the highest for Y/T junctions, followed by cross junctions. The lowest number of road traffic deaths is recorded for interchanges and roundabouts. The results show that only 11.25% of the total road traffic deaths are related to road defects. The highest proportion of deaths due to road defects (48.6%) is associated with lack of street lighting provision, whereas road shoulder edge drop-off and potholes contribute 15.4% and 11.2% of road traffic deaths, respectively.     

Traffic fatalities and economic growth

This paper examines the relationship between traffic fatality risk and per capita income and uses it to forecast traffic fatalities by geographic region. Equations for the road death rate (fatalities/population) and its components--the rate of motorization (vehicles/population) and fatalities per vehicle (F/V)--are estimated using panel data from 1963 to 1999 for 88 countries. The natural logarithm of F/P, V/P, and F/V are expressed as spline (piecewise linear) functions of the logarithm of real per capita GDP (measured in 1985 international prices). Region-specific time trends during the period 1963-1999 are modeled in linear and log-linear form. These models are used to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020. The per capita income at which traffic fatality risk (fatalities/population) begins to decline is 8600 US dollars (1985 international dollars) when separate time trends are used for each geographic region. This turning point is driven by the rate of decline in fatalities/vehicles as income rises since vehicles/population, while increasing with income at a decreasing rate, never declines with economic growth. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66% over the next twenty years. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world: a decline in fatalities in high-income countries of approximately 28% versus an increase in fatalities of almost 92% in China and 147% in India. The road death rate is projected to rise to approximately 2 per 10,000 persons in developing countries by 2020, while it will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries.     

Can injury prevention efforts go too far? Reflections on some possible implications of Vision Zero for road accident fatalities

The Swedish National Road Administration has launched a long term vision of a road transport system in which nobody is killed or sustains an injury resulting in permanent impairment (Vision Zero). This paper examines some possible implications of Vision Zero for traffic fatalities. The main points of the paper can be summarised as follows: An objective of eliminating traffic deaths can be interpreted as an application of a general principle of minimising mortality. Minimising overall mortality implies that a survival lottery must be introduced, at any rate as long as there is a shortage of organs for transplants. A survival lottery is a scheme in which people are drawn at random to sacrifice their life for the benefit of others. An objective of eliminating a certain cause of death, like traffic accidents, may be so expensive to realise that there is so much less resources available to control other causes of death that general mortality increases. Several analyses of the relationship between income per capita and general mortality based on Norwegian data document a negative relationship between income and mortality. The loss of income that induces an additional statistical death, due to economic inefficiency, is estimated to between 25 and 317 million NOK (3.8-47.5 million US dollars). These estimates are in line with those of most previous studies. No study of the relationship between income and mortality fully satisfies commonly used criteria of causality. However, the balance of evidence suggests that the relationship between income and mortality is a causal one. A hypothetical programme designed to implement Vision Zero for traffic fatalities was developed and its effects on the number of fatalities estimated. Implementing the whole programme could reduce the number of traffic deaths in Norway from about 300 per year to about 90 per year. Applying the lowest estimate of the income loss that induces an additional death (25 million NOK), it was estimated that implementing the entire hypothetical Vision Zero programme would increase general mortality by about 1355. This would lead to a net increase of about 1145 deaths per year (1355 minus 210 prevented traffic deaths). The analyses presented in this paper show that the possibility cannot be ruled out that a massive effort to eliminate traffic deaths would be counterproductive in terms of overall mortality. This possibility must be regarded as a moral dilemma by advocates of Vision Zero, who have invoked the ethical principle that 'one must always do everything in one's power to prevent death or serious injury' to justify the vision.     

Costs of alcohol-related crashes: New Zealand estimates and suggested measures for use internationally

This paper presents policy-oriented measures of alcohol-related crash incidence and costs in New Zealand (N.Z.). Costs of crashes, where alcohol probably was a contributing factor were computed from official crash costs and police-reported crash/injury counts adjusted for under-reporting of crashes and of alcohol involvement. Alcohol-related crashes cost an estimated $1.2 billion in N.Z. in 1996. They equate to an estimated $0.75 per drink consumed, $17.80 per km driven above the legal limit of 0.08, and $1100 per heavy drinker. People other than the drinkers, who caused the crashes, paid half the costs. An estimated one in 90 drunk-driving trips resulted in a crash (and often a drunk driving conviction) while one in 375 crash-free drunk driving trips also resulted in a drunk-driving conviction. Ten measures of alcohol-related crash incidence and costs are recommended for international use. They include number of alcohol-related deaths and injuries; innocent victims and children harmed in crashes caused by drinkers; annual costs and costs paid by people other than the drinker who caused the crash; crash costs per drink consumed, per heavy drinker, per kilometer driven drunk versus sober; probabilities of crash and of drunk-driving conviction.     

Are traffic deaths in Ireland related to alcohol consumption? Restudying a time series model.

The traffic death rate and per capita alcohol consumption in Ireland were found by Walsh to be correlated. However, a more detailed analysis shows that changes in traffic deaths precede changes in alcohol consumption. Therefore, the correlation can not reflect a causal relation. When a speculative variable is included, the relation becomes concurrent. The overall conclusion is that there is no credible evidence for a relation between per capita alcohol consumption and traffic deaths.     

Are lower legal blood alcohol limits and a combination of sanctions desirable in reducing drunken driver-involved traffic fatalities and traffic accidents?

In 1970 and 1978, a set of strict new countermeasures against drunk driving went in to effect in Japan. Analysis of official statistics of motor vehicle fatality data have indicated that alcohol involvement in fatal crashes has declined substantially in Japan since 1970. From the beginning of 1970 to the late 1980s and 1990s, public awareness of and tolerance for the problem of alcohol-impaired driving changed dramatically, as shown in this study. Further it seems that attitudes in Japan on drink driving have improved over the last 20 years or so, instep with a major program of government action. As well as being part of a long running campaign to reduce alcohol related road deaths and injuries, these accident savings are an important part of a national strategy which began in 1970, comprising a well structured legislative program introducing a lower legal limit, progressive penalties for those above the legal limit, over and above Police enforcement strategies underpinning the law and reinforcing the publicity massage. Enactment of the lower legal blood alcohol level with a combination of other severe sanctions is desirable for prevention of alcohol-related traffic casualties, DWI, and accidents, which is shown in this study. Finally, much of the current reduction in alcohol-related fatalities and morbidity reflects that Japanese society has largely endorsed alcohol impaired driving as a socially undesirable behavior. However, this study suggests that it is necessary for policy makers to understand that the DUI problem in Japan must be handled with diverse approaches, rather than relying exclusively on the deterrence based laws.     

The probability of death in road traffic accidents. How important is a quick medical response?

The number of deaths in road traffic accidents in Spain exceeds three thousand people each year. Public authorities have implemented some policies with the aim to reducing this number. Among them, the improvement of road quality standards and some legal changes encouraging careful driving behavior. However, less attention has been focused on one of the issues that may be critical to reducing the number of fatalities caused by traffic accidents: a quick emergency medical care. In this paper, we use a sample of more than 1400 accidents occurred on Spanish roads in May 2004. Our objective is to analyze to which extent a reduction of the time interval between the crash and the arrival of the emergency services to the crash scene is related to a lower probability of death. Our results suggest that a 10 min reduction of the medical response time can be statistically associated with an average decrease of the probability of death by one third, both on motorways and conventional roads.     

Traffic fatalities and injuries: the effect of changes in infrastructure and other trends

An analysis of how various road infrastructure improvements affect traffic-related fatalities and injuries is conducted while controlling for other factors known to affect overall safety. The road infrastructure elements analysed include total lane miles, the fraction of lane miles in different road categories (interstates, arterial, and collector roads), the average number of lanes for each road category, and lane widths for arterials and collector roads. Other variables that are controlled for in the study include total population, population age cohorts, per capita income, per capita alcohol consumption, seat-belt legislation (and seat-belt usage), and a proxy variable that represents underlying changes in medical technology. The data used is a cross-sectional time-series database of US states and is analysed using a fixed effects negative binomial regression that accounts for heterogeneity in the data. Data from all 50 states over 14 years is used. Results strongly refute the hypothesis that infrastructure improvements have been effective at reducing total fatalities and injuries. While controlling for other effects, it is found that demographic changes in age cohorts, increased seat-belt use, reduced alcohol consumption and increases in medical technology have accounted for a large share of overall reductions in fatalities.     

Comparing the cost of alcohol-related traffic crashes in rural and urban environments

Context

Existing studies have identified that, although to a lesser extent than individual factors such as males and young people, rural (compared to urban) communities represent a disproportionately high-risk of alcohol-related traffic crashes (ARTCs). To date, however, few studies have attempted to apply different costs to alcohol crashes of different severity, to provide more precise, and practically useful, data on which to base public health policy and intervention decisions.

Objective

The aim of this study is to quantify the per capita prevalence and differential costs of alcohol crashes of different levels of severity to determine the extent to which urban and rural geographical areas may differ in the costs attributable to ARTCs.

Design

A cross-sectional analysis of alcohol-related traffic crash and costs data from 2001 to 2007.

Setting and participants

Data from New South Wales, Australia.

Main outcome measures

Modified routinely collected traffic accident data to which costs relevant to alcohol crashes of different severity are applied.

Results

Although the rate per 10,000 population of alcohol-related crashes is 1.5 times higher in rural, relative to urban, communities, the attributable cost is four times higher, which largely reflects that rural alcohol-fatalities are seven to eight times more prevalent and costly.

Conclusions

Given that per capita alcohol-related fatal crashes in rural areas account for a disproportionately large proportion of the harms and costs associated with alcohol-related traffic crashes, the cost-effectiveness of public health interventions and public policy initiatives should consider the relative extent of ARTC-harm in rural versus urban communities.     

The efficacy of safety policies on traffic fatalities in Singapore

This paper uses regression models to investigate the efficacy of the seat belt regulation as well as the circuit training and testing system in reducing traffic related fatalities in Singapore. The effectiveness of alcohol breathalysers was also studied. Results suggest that the seat belt regulation does not have any impact on traffic fatalities. The use of breathalysers was found to be effective in reducing occupant fatalities. The circuit training and testing system, which aims to equip new pools of motorists with appropriate driving or riding skills, was found to be effective in reducing non-occupant fatalities and total fatalities.     

Traffic violations in Guangdong Province of China: Speeding and drunk driving

The number of speeding- and drunk driving-related injuries in China surged in the years immediately preceding 2004 and then began to decline. However, the percent decrease in the number of speeding and drunk driving incidents (decrease by 22%) is not proportional to the corresponding percent decrease in number of automobile accident-related injuries (decrease by 47%) from the year 2004 to 2010 (Traffic Management Bureau, Ministry of Public Security, Annual Statistical Reports on Road Traffic Accidents). Earlier studies have established traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. In this study, we examine in greater detail two important types of traffic violation events, speeding and drunk driving, and attempt to identify significant risk factors associated with these types of traffic violations. Risk factors in several different dimensions, including driver, vehicle, road and environmental factors, are considered. We analyze the speeding (N = 11,055) and drunk driving (N = 10,035) data for the period 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, obtained from the Guangdong Provincial Security Department, are extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report and are the only comprehensive and official source of traffic accident data in China. Significant risk factors associating with speeding and drunk driving are identified. We find that several factors are associated with a significantly higher probability of both speeding and drunk driving, particularly male drivers, private vehicles, the lack of street lighting at night and poor visibility. The impact of other specific and unique risk factors for either speeding or drunk driving, such as hukou, road type/grades, commercial vehicles, compulsory third party insurance and vehicle safety status, also require particular attention. Legislative or regulatory measures targeting different vehicle types and/or driver groups with respect to the various driver, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors can subsequently be devised to reduce the speeding and drunk driving rates. As the country with the highest number of traffic accident fatalities in the world, applying these findings in workable legislation and enforcement to reduce speeding and drunk driving rates will save tens of thousands of lives.     

Drunk driving among American blacks and Hispanics

This paper reports the results of a literature search to determine the extent and nature of minority group involvement in drunk driving. Most of the research supports the view that American blacks and Hispanics are disproportionately more likely to be drunk drivers. However, the evidence is not fully consistent. The general relationship seems to be reduced or even reversed for minority youth. Furthermore, studies based on self-reported behavior contradict those based on official statistics such as alcohol-related deaths, traffic arrests, and accidents. Self reports generally show less drunk driving among the minority groups.     

Determinants of road traffic safety: New evidence from Australia using state-space analysis

This paper examines the determinants of road traffic crash fatalities in Queensland for the period 1958–2007 using a state-space time-series model. In particular, we investigate the effects of policies that aimed to reduce drink-driving on traffic fatalities, as well as indicators of the economic environment that may affect exposure to traffic, and hence affect the number of accidents and fatalities. The results show that the introduction of a random breath testing program in 1988 was associated with a 11.3% reduction in traffic fatalities; its expansion in 1998 was associated with a 26.2% reduction in traffic fatalities; and the effect of the “Safe4life” program, which was introduced in 2004, was a 14.3% reduction in traffic fatalities. Reductions in economic activity are also associated with reductions in road fatalities: we estimate that a one percent increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 0.2% reduction in traffic fatalities.     

Analysis and prediction of traffic fatalities resulting from angle collisions including the effect of vehicles' configuration and compatibility

Although the rapid growth in light truck vehicle (LTV) sales, including minivans, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), and light-duty trucks, has not been associated with an overall increase in collisions or traffic deaths in the US, there is a need for a research program to determine whether particular types of collisions have become more frequent or injurious because of the increase in the percent of LTVs in traffic. This paper presents an analysis of the effect of the increasing number of LTV registrations on fatal angle collision trends in the US. The analysis investigates the number of annual fatalities that result from angle collisions as well as collision configuration (car-car, car-LTV, LTV-car, and LTV-LTV). The analysis uses the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) crash databases covering the period 1975-2000. Results showed that death rates differ based on the collision configuration. Time series modeling results showed that fatalities in angle collisions will increase in the next 10 years, and that they are affected by the expected increase in the percentage of LTVs in traffic. Forecast showed that the total number of annual deaths is expected to reach 6300 deaths by the year 2010 (an increase of 12% over 2000). Analysis into the configuration of the collision indicated the seriousness of angle collisions involving an LTV striking a common passenger car (LTV-car). A time series model illustrated the significance of time lag and percent of LTVs in traffic on the increase of this type of fatal collisions. Forecasts from the time series model indicated a 32% increase in deaths due to this type of collisions in the next 10 years.