The savings of energy saving: interactions between energy supply and demand-side options—quantification for Portugal

Reducing demand by increasing end-use energy efficiency on the demand side of energy systems may also have advantages in reducing fossil dependency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the supply side. This paper addresses interactions between energy supply- and demand-side policies, by estimating the impact of measures addressing end-use energy efficiency and small-scale renewables uses in terms of (1) avoided large-scale electricity generation capacity, (2) final energy consumption, (3) share of renewables in final energy and (4) reduction of GHG emissions. The Portuguese energy system is used as a case study. The TIMES_PT bottom-up model was used to generate four scenarios covering the period up to 2020, corresponding to different levels of efficiency of equipment in buildings, transport and industry. In the current policy scenario, the deployment of end-use equipment follows the 2000–2005 trends and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan targets. In the efficient scenarios, all types of equipment can be replaced by more efficient ones. Results show that aggressive demand-side options for the industry and buildings sector and the small-scale use of renewables can remove the need for the increase in large-scale renewable electricity capacity by 4.7 GW currently discussed by policy makers. Although these measures reduce total final energy by only 0–2 %, this represents reductions of 11–14 % in the commercial sector, with savings in total energy system costs of approximately 3,000 million euros₂₀₀₀—roughly equivalent to 2 % of the 2010 Portuguese GDP. The cost-effectiveness of policy measures should guide choices between supply shifts and demand reduction. Such balanced policy development can lead to substantial cost reductions in climate and energy policy.     

LEAPs and Bounds—an Energy Demand and Constraint Optimised Model of the Irish Energy System

This paper builds a model of energy demand and supply for Ireland with a focus on evaluating, and providing insights for, energy efficiency policies. The demand-side comprises sectoral sub-models, with a detailed bottom–up approach used for the transport and residential sectors and a top–down approach used for the industry and services sectors. The supply side uses the linear programming optimisation features of the Open Source Energy Modelling System applied to electricity generation to calculate the least-cost solution. This paper presents the first national level model developed within the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning software to combine detailed end-use analysis on the demand side with a cost-minimising optimisation approach for modelling the electricity generation sector. Through three scenarios over the period 2009–2020, the model examines the aggregate impact on energy demand of a selection of current and proposed energy efficiency policies. In 2020, energy demand in the energy efficiency scenario is 8.6 % lower than the reference scenario and 11.1 % lower in the energy efficiency?+?scenario.     

Potential of new lighting technologies in reducing household lighting energy use and CO2 emissions in Finland

Using light-emitting diodes (LEDs) can significantly reduce the current household lighting energy use in Finland during 2020–2050. Our calculations show that the potential of using LEDs in reducing household lighting energy use and corresponding CO₂ emissions in Finland during 2020–2050 can be significant. Reductions from the current level of Finnish household lighting energy use (1.8 TWh/a) were 59 % in 2020, 72 % in 2030 and 78 % in 2050, when a high LED penetration was assumed. Lighting energy savings in 2020 would mean a 1.3 % reduction from the current total electricity use in Finland (84.2 TWh/a). The starting point in 2012 was that the share of incandescent lamps was 32 % and the share of LED lamps 6 % of the total amount of lamps in an average household. Using the current average emissions factor (current electricity production structure), the saved amount of energy in 2020 means 234,000 tonnes of CO₂. Using the marginal emissions factor, the saved amount of energy means 920,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions.     

Policy drivers for improving electricity end-use efficiency in the USA: an economic–engineering analysis

This paper estimates the economically achievable potential for improving electricity end-use efficiency in the USA from a sample of policies. The approach involves identifying a series of energy efficiency policies tackling market failures and then examining their impacts and cost-effectiveness using Georgia Institute of Technology's version of the National Energy Modeling System. By estimating the policy-driven electricity savings and the associated levelized costs, a policy supply curve for electricity efficiency is produced. Each policy is evaluated individually and in an integrated policy scenario to examine policy dynamics. The integrated policy scenario demonstrates significant achievable potential: 261 TWh (6.5 %) of electricity savings in 2020 and 457 TWh (10.2 %) in 2035. All 11 policies examined were estimated to have lower levelized costs than the average electricity retail price. Levelized costs range from 0.5 to 8.1 cents/kWh, with the regulatory and information policies tending to be most cost-effective. Policy impacts on the power sector, carbon dioxide emissions, and energy intensity are also estimated to be significant.     

Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios

As a response to the twin challenges of climate change mitigation and energy security, the UK government has set a groundbreaking target of reducing the UK’s economy-wide carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. A second key UK energy policy is to increase the share of final energy consumption from renewables sources to 15% by 2020, as part of the wider EU Renewable Directive. The UK’s principle mechanisms to meet this renewable target are the Renewable Obligation (RO) in the electricity sector, the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), and most recently the Renewable Heat Programme (RHP) for buildings. This study quantifies a range of policies, energy pathways, and sectoral trade-offs when combining mid- and long-term UK renewables and CO₂ reduction policies. Stringent renewable policies are the binding constraints through 2020. Furthermore, the interactions between RO, RTFO, and RHP policies drive trade-offs between low carbon electricity, bio-fuels, high efficiency natural gas, and demand reductions as well as resulting 2020 welfare costs. In the longer term, CO₂ reduction constraints drive the costs and characteristics of the UK energy system through 2050.     

Purchased energy and policy impacts in the US manufacturing sector

The US manufacturing sector, which consists of industries that produce durable and nondurable goods, accounts for about 30 % of all the final energy consumed in the country. In this study, manufacturing sector data coming primarily from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers are used to estimate the total impact of one mode of energy efficiency policy, market persuasion programs, on aggregate electricity consumption and energy expenditures. Using a panel model consisting of data for 184 industries, the findings indicate that the cumulative effects since 2002 of this policy mode is a reduction in 2010 electricity consumption of 5.4 %, of electricity expenditures of 2.4 %, and of all other fuel expenditures of 5.7 %. These estimates are derived after controlling for changes in output, other production inputs, and economic conditions. Particular attention in this study is given to the effects of a permanent shift in demand, and temporary business cycle shock, on model external validity.     

Sizing and operating power-to-gas systems to absorb excess renewable electricity

Various configurations of power-to-gas system are investigated as a means for capturing excess wind power in the Emden region of Germany and transferring it to the natural gas grid or local biogas-CHP plant. Consideration is given to producing and injecting low concentration hydrogen admixtures, synthetic methane, or hydrogen/synthetic methane mixtures. Predictions based on time series data for wind generation and electricity demand indicate that excess renewable electricity levels will reach about 40 MW and 45 GW h per annum by 2020, and that it is desirable to achieve a progression in power-to-gas capacity in the preceding period. The findings are indicative for regions transitioning from medium to high renewable power penetrations. To capture an increasing proportion of the growing amount of excess renewable electricity, the following recommendations are made: implement a 4 MW hydrogen admixture plant and hydrogen buffer of 600 kg in 2018; then in 2020, implement a 17 MW hybrid system for injecting hydrogen and synthetic methane (with a hydrogen storage capacity of at least 400 kg) in conjunction with a bio-methane injection plant. The 17 MW plant will capture 68% of the available excess renewable electricity in 2020, by offering an availability to the electricity grid operator of >97% and contributing 19.1 GW h of ‘green’ gas to the gas grid.     

Survey of Western U.S. electric utility resource plans

We review long-term electric utility plans representing ~90% of generation within the Western U.S. and Canadian provinces. We address what utility planners assume about future growth of electricity demand and supply; what types of risk they consider in their long-term resource planning; and the consistency in which they report resource planning-related data. The region is anticipated to grow by 2% annually by 2020 – before Demand Side Management. About two-thirds of the utilities that provided an annual energy forecast also reported energy efficiency savings projections; in aggregate, they anticipate an average 6.4% reduction in energy and 8.6% reduction in peak demand by 2020. New natural gas-fired and renewable generation will replace retiring coal plants. Although some utilities anticipate new coal-fired plants, most are planning for steady growth in renewable generation over the next two decades. Most planned solar capacity will come online before 2020, with most wind expansion after 2020. Fuel mix is expected to remain ~55% of total generation. Planners consider a wide range of risks but focus on future demand, fuel prices, and the possibility of GHG regulations. Data collection and reporting inconsistencies within and across electric utility resource plans lead to recommendations on policies to address this issue.     

Bottom–Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS)—an international appliance efficiency policy tool

The Bottom–Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) calculates potential energy and greenhouse gas emission impacts of efficiency policies for lighting, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, appliances, and industrial equipment through 2030. The model includes 16 end use categories and covers 11 individual countries plus the European Union. BUENAS is a bottom–up stock accounting model that predicts energy consumption for each type of equipment in each country according to engineering-based estimates of annual unit energy consumption, scaled by projections of equipment stock. Energy demand in each scenario is determined by equipment stock, usage, intensity, and efficiency. When available, BUENAS uses sales forecasts taken from country studies to project equipment stock. Otherwise, BUENAS uses an econometric model of household appliance uptake developed by the authors. Once the business as usual scenario is established, a high-efficiency policy scenario is constructed that includes an improvement in the efficiency of equipment installed in 2015 or later. Policy case efficiency targets represent current “best practice” and include standards already established in a major economy or well-defined levels known to enjoy a significant market share in a major economy. BUENAS calculates energy savings according to the difference in energy demand in the two scenarios. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation is then calculated using a forecast of electricity carbon factor. We find that mitigation of 1075 mt annual CO₂ emissions is possible by 2030 from adopting current best practices of appliance efficiency policies. This represents a 17 % reduction in emissions in the business as usual case in that year.     

Decomposition for emission baseline setting in China's electricity sector

Decomposition analysis is used to generate carbon dioxide emission baselines in China's electricity sector to the year 2020. This is undertaken from the vantage point of the final consumer of electricity, and therefore considers factors influencing electricity demand, efficiency of generation, sources of energy used for generation purposes, and the effectiveness of transmission and distribution. It is found that since 1980, gains in efficiency of generation have been the most important factor affecting change in the emission intensity of electricity generated. Based upon known energy and economic policy, efficiency gains will continue to contribute to reductions in the emission intensity of electricity generated, however, fuel shifts to natural gas and increases in nuclear generation will further these trends into the future. The analysis confirms other sources in the literature that decomposition is an appropriate technique available for baseline construction, thereby suitable for the emerging carbon market and its related mechanisms.     

Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction potential in secondary production and semi-fabrication of non-ferrous metals

Industrial sector growth in developing countries requires the provision of alternatives to guarantee sustainable development. Improving energy efficiency and fuel switching are two measures to reduce CO₂ emissions in the industrial sector, with natural gas and low-carbon electricity as the most feasible options in the short term. In this work, a linear programming optimization model has been developed to study the potential of energy efficiency improvement and fuel substitution for CO₂ emissions reduction, at national level in the non-ferrous metals industry. The energy resource/end-use device allocation problem in secondary metal production and semi-fabrication has been modeled. Using this model, the particular case of Colombia, where low-carbon electricity is available, has been studied. By improving energy efficiency, energy use and CO₂ emissions can be reduced significantly, 73% and 72%, respectively, at negative costs. Further CO₂ emissions reductions, up to 88%, are possible with fuel switching to low-carbon electricity, increasing the costs for the energy system; however, cost reductions caused by energy efficiency improvement outweigh cost increments of fuel switching. Benefits achieved with fuel substitution using low-carbon electricity can be lost if hydropower is not available; in such a case, efficient natural gas-fired end-use devices are preferable.     

The impact of carbon sequestration on the production cost of electricity and hydrogen from coal and natural-gas technologies in Europe in the medium term

Carbon sequestration is a distinct technological option with a potential for controlling carbon emissions; it complements other measures, such as improvements in energy efficiency and utilization of renewable energy sources. The deployment of carbon sequestration technologies in electricity generation and hydrogen production will increase the production costs of these energy carriers. Our economic assessment has shown that the introduction of carbon sequestration technologies in Europe in 2020, will result in an increase in the production cost of electricity by coal and natural gas technologies of 30–55% depending on the electricity-generation technology used; gas turbines will remain the most competitive option for generating electricity; and integrated gasification combined cycle technology will become competitive. When carbon sequestration is coupled with natural-gas steam reforming or coal gasification for hydrogen production, the production cost of hydrogen will increase by 14–16%. Furthermore, natural-gas steam reforming with carbon sequestration is far more economically competitive than coal gasification.     

Sectoral energy consumption in Turkey

Turkey expects a very large growth in energy demand, especially for electricity and natural gas. Today, Turkey’s energy production meets nearly 48% of the total primary energy demand. Total primary energy demand will reach 98 Mtoe in 2001 and 308 Mtoe in 2020. Import of primary energy will reach 226 Mtoe and production of primary energy will increase 81 Mtoe in 2020. As seen, Turkey is an importer country for primary energy. Turkey’s indigenous energy sources are limited, and the country is heavily dependent on the import of primary energy from abroad. The growth of Turkey’s industry is giving rise to a substantial increase in energy demand. In this paper, the primary energy production and sectoral consumption in Turkey is investigated. Further, a sectoral energy demand projection in Turkey is given until 2020.     

Cost-effectiveness of renewable electricity policies

We analyze policies to promote renewable sources of electricity. A portfolio standard (RPS) raises electricity prices and primarily reduces gas-fired generation. A knee of the cost curve exists between 15% and 20% goals for 2020 in our central case, and higher natural gas prices lower the cost of greater reliance on renewables. A renewable energy production tax credit lowers electricity price at the expense of taxpayers, which limits its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions, and it is less cost-effective at increasing renewables than a portfolio standard. Neither policy is as cost-effective as a cap-and-trade policy for achieving carbon emission reductions.     

Estimating co-pollutant benefits from climate change policies in the electricity sector: A regression approach

We use data from US power plants and a regression based approach to empirically estimate the marginal rate of co-pollutant emission reductions resulting from a mass-based carbon reduction policy for electricity producers. The standard approach to estimating co-pollutant reductions uses Linear Programming Models. These models require millions of input variables and constraints, resulting in long computational times and an opaque simulation process, while yielding only point estimates for key variables of interest. Our regression-based approach has far fewer data requirements, needs less computational resources, and produces estimates with confidence intervals that capture estimation uncertainty. Moreover, it is straightforward and transparent to implement and provides a larger range of potential outcomes for policy makers to consider. Our results indicate that a 1% decrease in electricity output from coal (gas) power plants would reduce SO₂ by 0.6% and NO_x by 0.8% (0.7%). These are not statistically significant different than estimates reported by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We estimate that reducing electricity output enough to reduce CO₂ emissions by one ton yields health benefits of $15.33 from NO_x reductions and $59.64 from SO₂ reductions.     

Ecological and economic efficiency of the use of alternative energy technologies including hydrogen to reduce of the anthropogenic load in the central ecological area of the Baikal natural territory

The central ecological area of the Baikal natural territory covers some districts of the Irkutsk oblast and the Republic of Buryatia, located on the coast of the Lake Baikal. Due to the natural uniqueness and special status of doing economic activity, the assessment of the impact on the environment in this territory is very importance.An analysis of the functioning of energy objects showed that a significant part of the territory is provided with a centralized electricity supply with developed electric grid infrastructure. There are only a few remote settlements with autonomous electricity supply from diesel power plants.The main sources of pollution are numerous boiler houses that provide heat to the population, social and administrative institutions. In all, there are 98 heat energy sources in the territory, of which 66 (or 70%) use coal.The problems of environmental pollution are mainly caused by the use of coal in a small boiler house, worn-out equipment, and the lack of an appropriate level of flue gas treatment. The total estimated emission of pollutants into the atmosphere from heat energy sources is estimated at 20–25 thousand tons per year.In order to reduce the anthropogenic impact from energy objects, it is advisable to use renewable energy sources, hydrogen technologies, coal substitution with environmentally friendly fuels, use of electricity for heat energy supply, installation of environmental protection equipment and the implementation of energy-saving measures.The methodological approach and simulation models developed at MESI SB RAS were used to determine the competitiveness conditions of alternative technologies and energy carriers.The studies evaluated the environmental and economic efficiency of energy production technologies by using specific indicators: the capital intensity of reducing 1 ton of emissions and environmental capital return by 1 million rubles for the conditions of the central ecological area.The potential for reducing emissions into the atmosphere by use of renewable energy sources in autonomous energy supply areas is less than 1% of the current level of total emissions from energy objects. The potential for reducing emissions by replacing boiler houses with a capacity of less than 0,2 Gcal/h by a heat pump units is no more than 12%.The biggest environmental effect can be achieved by using alternative energy carriers including hydrogen instead of coal. Moreover, the potential for reducing emissions is 60% of the total emissions. In addition to these activities are the least capital intensive.The most effectively is the replacement of coal with natural gas. Rational gas consumption in the coastal areas of Lake Baikal is estimated at 175–190 thousand tons of equivalent fuel. The real possibility of transferring small boiler houses to gas arises during the construction of an export gas pipeline from Russia (through the territory of the Irkutsk oblast) to China via Mongolia, or by the small-scale production of liquefied natural gas.The most currently implemented direction is the use of electricity for heat energy supply. The potential volume of electricity to replace coal in boiler houses of the central ecological area is 1,3 TWh per year, however, the competitive electricity tariff is estimated less than 2 US c/kWh, which is several times lower than current tariffs.Hydrogen technology is currently very capital-intensive, but using it in a way similar to using electricity for heat eliminates pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions.Now days, there are no effective financial mechanisms aimed at stimulating the reduction of the anthropogenic pressure on the environment from existing energy sources, including for the use of alternative technologies. As the result, significant financial support is required in the form of special cost compensation mechanisms for energy producers and/or consumers.     

The role of hydropower in meeting Turkey's electric energy demand

The inherent technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power, make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. These countries, such as Turkey, have a great and ever-intensifying need for power and water supplies and they also have the greatest remaining hydro potential. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and natural gas, Turkey is not a rich country; but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity and must increase hydropower production in the near future. This paper deals with policies to meet the increasing electricity demand for Turkey. Hydropower and especially small hydropower are emphasized as Turkey's renewable energy sources. The results of two case studies, whose results were not taken into consideration in calculating Turkey's hydro electric potential, are presented. Turkey's small hydro power potential is found to be an important energy source, especially in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The results of a study in which Turkey's long-term demand has been predicted are also presented. According to the results of this paper, Turkey's hydro electric potential can meet 33–46% of its electric energy demand in 2020 and this potential may easily and economically be developed.     

Efficiency improvement opportunities for televisions in India: implications for market transformation programs

Televisions (TVs) account for a significant portion of residential appliance electricity consumption in India, and TV shipments in India are expected to continue to increase. We assess the market trends in the energy efficiency of TVs that are likely to occur without any additional policy intervention and estimate that TV efficiency will likely improve with saving potential of 6 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year in 2020, compared to today’s technology. We discuss various energy-efficiency improvement options and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three of them, at least one of which improves efficiency by at least 20 % cost-effectively beyond these ongoing market trends. We provide insights for policies and programs that can be used to accelerate the adoption of efficient technologies to capture the cost-effective energy savings potential from TVs which we estimate to be 3.4 TWh per year in 2020.     

The technical,geographical, and economic feasibility for solar energy to supply the energy needs of the US

So far, solar energy has been viewed as only a minor contributor in the energy mixture of the US due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent drastic cost reductions in the production of photovoltaics (PV) pave the way for enabling this technology to become cost competitive with fossil fuel energy generation. We show that with the right incentives, cost competitiveness with grid prices in the US (e.g., 6–10 US¢/kWh) can be attained by 2020. The intermittency problem is solved by integrating PV with compressed air energy storage (CAES) and by extending the thermal storage capability in concentrated solar power (CSP). We used hourly load data for the entire US and 45-year solar irradiation data from the southwest region of the US, to simulate the CAES storage requirements, under worst weather conditions. Based on expected improvements of established, commercially available PV, CSP, and CAES technologies, we show that solar energy has the technical, geographical, and economic potential to supply 69% of the total electricity needs and 35% of the total (electricity and fuel) energy needs of the US by 2050. When we extend our scenario to 2100, solar energy supplies over 90%, and together with other renewables, 100% of the total US energy demand with a corresponding 92% reduction in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions compared to the 2005 levels.