The impact of disaggregated energy on productivity : A study of the US manufacturing sector, 1958–1985

The issue of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s has received considerable analysis in the literature. However, the issue of the impact of energy on productivity is still debated. This study contributes to the debate, with the hope that some sight could be provided through disaggregating the factor input energy into two components; a petroleum component and a non-petroleum component. By analysing labour productivity growth, total factor productivity growth and labour intensity ratios, the disaggregated energy component can be viewed as a major influence in explaining the productivity decline.     

An econometric analysis of energy consumption in Nepal

Economic growth and energy demand are closely related. A clear understanding of the relation between energy and economic demand would help energy planners to understand the implications of changes in the exogenous variables when the underlying relationships are fairly stable. An understanding of broader impacts of energy use can be of great help in designing better energy policies, at least at the macro level. Therefore, in this paper, various econometric models have been proposed after studying the influence and significance of various independent variables with chosen dependent variables. The models are classified into fuel models and consumption sector models. These models have been used to provide medium-range energy demand projections till 2012. Policy implications of projections are also discussed.     

Thirty years of domestic solar hot water systems use in Greece – energy and environmental benefits – future perspectives

The effort to reduce the dependence on imported crude oil in Greece, after the oil crises in the '70s, has resulted, among others, in a total installed area of 3.57 million m² solar collectors in 2007, making Greece one of the pioneers in the use of domestic solar hot water system (DSHWS) worldwide.In the present work, the contribution of DSHWS to the reduction of conventional energy and greenhouse gases and other air pollutant emissions in Greece from its early years in mid '70s up to now is assessed. DSHWS market penetration, solar system technological changes and development and demographic changes in association with the climatic conditions in all regions of the country have been taken into account in order to calculate energy conservation and emissions reduction. The results show that the conserved energy ranges from 21.27 GW h_el (0.1% of the domestic sector energy use) in 1978 to 1513 GW h_el (2.4%) in 2007, resulting in an abatement of CO₂ emissions, which for the year 2000 was 1.67 Mt, exceeding by 76% the objectives of the Greek Program of “Climatic Change”, which indicated savings of 0.95 Mt CO₂ for 2000.Moreover DSHWS maximum technical potential is assessed to be about three times the current installed area, showing that they can play an important role in energy end environmental policy of the country.     

An econometric analysis of energy input–output in Turkish agriculture

This study analyzes energy use and investigates influences of energy inputs and energy forms on output levels in Turkish agriculture during the period 1975–2000. The output level was calculated in the form of annual grain equivalent at aggregate level for 104 agricultural commodities except livestock products. Output level was specified as a function of total physical, fertilizer and seed energy, and ordinary least squares was employed to estimate equation parameters. The results show that total energy input has increased from 19.6 GJ/ha in 1975 to 45.7 GJ/ha in 2000, whereas total output energy has risen from 27.1 GJ/ha to a level of 39.1 GJ/ha. Energy efficiency indicators, input–output ratio, energy productivity and net energy have declined over the examined period. Total physical and fertilizer energy, particularly nitrogen, significantly contributed to output level with elasticities of 0.24 and 0.14, respectively. The results also revealed that non-renewable, direct and indirect energy forms had a positive impact on output level. Moreover, Turkish agriculture has experienced a substantial increase in non-renewable energy use. This inefficient energy use pattern in the Turkish agriculture can create some environmental problems such as increase in global warming, CO₂ emissions, and non-sustainability. Thus, policy makers should undertake new policy tools to ensure sustainability and efficient energy use.     

Residential energy use and conservation in Denmark, 1965–1980

New data have been assembled to quantify patterns of residential energy use in Denmark from 1965 to 1980 by fuel and end use. Indicators of the structure and intensity of energy use are developed from basic data and reviewed. Changes since 1972 are quantified and compared with those observed in other countries. The reduction in oil use in oil-heated dwellings is shown to be the largest among OECD countries. Elements of past, present and future Danish conservation policies are reviewed. While many of these are unique and far reaching, the predominant cause of conservation up until 1980 has been short-term measures stimulated primarily by higher energy prices.     

Tests for structural change in US oil consumption, 1967–1982

The purpose of this paper is to test US oil consumption for structural change over the period 1967–1982. A frequently used functional form is posited for total petroleum consumption as well as for gasoline, distillate, and residual fuel. Tests for abrupt change (Chow) and gradual or conservation-like change (Durbin, Brown, Evans and Farley, Hinnich, McGuire) are employed at special break points (1973 embargo, 1979 Iranian crisis, 1980 recession) to check for abrupt changes and across years in general to detect gradual shifts. Both abrupt and gradual changes are found, although the last five years may be the beginning of a new non-changing period.     

Energy efficiency developments in the Dutch energy-intensive manufacturing industry, 1980–2003

We studied energy efficiency trends in the Dutch manufacturing industry between 1995 and 2003 using indicators based on publicly available physical production and specific energy consumption data. We estimated annual primary energy efficiency improvements in this period at 1.3% on average, with the individual sub-sectors ranging between −0.1% and 1.5%. Energy efficiency developments with respect to electricity, fuels/heat and non-energy use have been monitored separately and are shown to differ significantly (for the sum of the sectors studied: 1.9% for electricity, 2.6% for fuels/heat and −0.1% for non-energy use). We combined our results with those from a previous, similar study for 1980–1995 and show that over the full time period, efficiency improvements of 1% per year have been achieved on average. Based on comparison with other sources and a detailed uncertainty analysis, we conclude that we developed a reliable top-down monitoring framework for studying energy efficiency trends of the manufacturing industry that can also be applied in other countries where similar data are available. We also showed that substantial differences exist between energy consumption data available from energy statistics and according to the Long Term Agreement monitoring reports, stressing the need for ongoing independent checks of available energy consumption data to avoid problems in future evaluations of energy efficiency policies.     

Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US

This paper presents a validation of the short and medium term global irradiance forecasts that are produced as part of the US SolarAnywhere (2010) data set. The short term forecasts that extend up to 6-h ahead are based upon cloud motion derived from consecutive geostationary satellite images. The medium term forecasts extend up to 6-days-ahead and are modeled from gridded cloud cover forecasts from the US National Digital Forecast Database.The forecast algorithms are validated against ground measurements for seven climatically distinct locations in the United States for 1 year. An initial analysis of regional performance using satellite-derived irradiances as a benchmark reference is also presented.     

Electric buses – An energy efficient urban transportation means

Bus transit systems with electric traction are an important contribution to the post fossil fuel mobility. Most renewable energy sources provide energy in the form of electricity. Electric motors thus have promise in the development of the way “beyond oil”. The reactivation of trolley bus systems – grid bounded but also catenary free for short distances – paves this way. The design of modern trolley bus operations overcomes the existing disadvantages of conventional buses using fossil fuel. Germany has an efficient industry in this field, that offers braking energy recuperation and energy storage in modern supercapacitors as well as technical and organisational innovations for a local emission free and a low noise transit system. Gentle but powerful when starting and braking, the trolley bus is cost effective and easy to integrate into an existing infrastructure. Such an electric bus system is ecological, customer-friendly and suitable for cities. It has a high economic efficiency and it also expands the traffic planning field towards an ecological future technology. This paper shows examples at home and abroad how electric buses achieve an energy solving modern urban traffic. It gives insights into technical developments of electric vehicle equipment, cateneries with fast driving handling characteristics and the use of plain electric and hybrid powertrains.     

An analytical approach for optimising a set of α and ε values for solar energy applications

An analytical method for optimising a set of α and ε values for specified set of operating conditions (plate temperature, ambient temperature, number of glass covers, wind velocity, solar flux etc.) has been proposed. The absorptivity (α)-emissivity (ε) curves obtained suggest the existence of an optimum (α, ε) set, which would maximise the useful energy from a collector.     

An integrated model for performance simulation of hybrid wind–diesel systems

Stand-alone hybrid systems have turned into one of the most promising ways to handle the electrification requirements of numerous isolated consumers worldwide. The proposed wind–diesel–battery hybrid system consists of a micro-wind converter, a small diesel-electric generator—basically operating as a back up energy production system—and a lead-acid battery bank that stores the wind energy surplus during high wind speed periods. In this context the present work is focused on presenting a detailed mathematical model describing the operational behavior of the basic hybrid system components, along with the representative calculation results based on the developed mathematical model. Accordingly, an integrated numerical algorithm is built to estimate the energy autonomy configuration of the hybrid system under investigation. Using the proposed numerical algorithm, the optimum configuration selection procedure is verified by carrying out an appropriate sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology may equally well be applied to any other remote consumer and wind potential type, in order to estimate the optimum wind–diesel hybrid system configuration that guarantees long-term energy autonomy.     

US states and energy efficiency: North Carolina's ‘quango’

This paper argues that energy efficiency remains an abstraction until actions produce significant results in the ways in which energy is produced and used. In the USA, such actions have depended historically on the private sector, with government taking an increasingly prominent role since the first energy crisis of the 1970s. Experience has shown that neither acting alone has been fully successful at realizing the economically and societally rational rate of implementation made possible by either the needs or the opportunities in energy. Recent developments in various states have begun to explore hybrid organizations - quasi-public and quasi-private - as ways to focus resources in productive applications. Four examples merit attention, with particular emphasis on the North Carolina Alternative Energy Corporation.     

“Key” sectors in final energy consumption: an input–output application to the Spanish case

In this paper we analyze the determination of “key” sectors in the final energy consumption. We approach this issue from an input–output perspective and we design a methodology based on the elasticities of the demands of final energy consumption. As an exercise, we apply the proposed methodology to the Spanish economy. The analysis allows us to indicate the greater or lesser relevance of the different sectors in the consumption of final energy, pointing out which sectors deserve greater attention in the Spanish case and showing the implications for energy policy.     

Dynamics of rural energy access in India: An assessment

India’s rural energy challenges are formidable with the presence of majority energy poor. In 2005, out of a rural population of 809 million, 364 million lacked access to electricity and 726 million to modern cooking fuels. This indicates low effectiveness of government policies and programs of the past, and need for a more effective approach to bridge this gap. However, before the government can address this challenge, it is essential that it gain a deeper insight into prevailing status of energy access and reasons for such outcomes. Toward this, we perform a critical analysis of the dynamics of energy access status with respect to time, income and regions, and present the results as possible indicators of effectiveness of policies/programmes. Results indicate that energy deprivations are highest for poorest households with 93% depending on biomass for cooking and 62% lacking access to electricity. The annual growth rates in expansion in energy access are gradually declining from double digit growth rates experienced 10 years back to just around 4% in recent years. Regional variations indicate, on an average, cooking access levels were 5.3 times higher in top five states compared to bottom five states whereas this ratio was 3.4 for electricity access.     

Connecticut's residential conservation service: An evaluation

CONN SAVE is a non-profit consortium of electric and gas utilities in Connecticut, established to deliver services mandated by the federal Residential Conservation Service. This article describes a quantitative evaluation of the programme which involved collection of several types of data from CONN SAVE, fuel suppliers and households.Data from home energy audits and on-site home interviews were analysed in terms of conservation potentials as of Spring 1981. Potential for space-heating energy saving was roughly 15% greater in participant homes than in control homes and for water heating energy saving was slightly larger for control homes. Participant homes installed many more retrofit measures than control households and, as a consequence, were expected to cut their annual energy costs by 2–3 times as much as the control households - 18 MBtu vs 7 MBtu ($160 vs $60). Hence, the CONN SAVE audit was effective in stimulating additional retrofit action on the part of participants.     

A tool for creating energy market scenarios for evaluation of investments in energy intensive industry

The energy intensive industry can be a major contributor to CO₂ emissions reduction, provided that appropriate investments are made. To assess profitability and net CO₂ emissions reduction potential of such investments, predictions about future energy market conditions are needed. Energy market scenarios can be used to reflect different possible future energy market conditions. This paper presents a tool for creating consistent energy market scenarios adapted for evaluation of energy related investments in energy intensive industrial processes. Required user inputs include fossil fuel prices and costs associated with policy instruments, and the outputs are energy market prices and CO₂ consequences of import/export of different energy streams (e.g. electric power and biomass fuel) from an industrial process site. The paper also presents four energy market scenarios for the medium-term future (i.e. around 2020) created using the tool.     

The ECOS 2009 World Energy Panel: An introduction to the Panel and to the present (2009) situation in sustainable energy development

This paper introduces the ECOS 2009 conference World Energy Panel, and presents the opening talk that briefly surveys the present (2009) situation in sustainable energy development. Recent (2008) estimates and forecasts of the oil, gas, coal resources and their reserve/production ratio, nuclear and renewable energy potential, and energy uses are surveyed. A brief discussion of the status, sustainability (economic, environmental and social impact), and prospects of fossil, nuclear and renewable energy use, and of power generation (including hydrogen, fuel cells, micro-power systems, and the futuristic concept of generating power in space for terrestrial use), is presented. Comments about energy use in general, with more detailed focus on insufficiently considered areas of transportation and buildings are brought up. Ways to resolve the problem of the availability, cost, and sustainability of energy resources alongside the rapidly rising demand are discussed. The author’s view of the promising energy R&D areas, their potential, foreseen improvements and their time scale, and last year’s trends in government funding are presented.     

Improvement of energy demand forecasts using swarm intelligence: The case of Turkey with projections to 2025

The energy supply and demand should be closely monitored and revised the forecasts to take account of the progress of liberalization, energy efficiency improvements, structural changes in industry and other major factors. Medium and long-term forecasting of energy demand, which is based on realistic indicators, is a prerequisite to become an industrialized country and to have high living standards. Energy planning is not possible without a reasonable knowledge of past and present energy consumption and likely future demands. Energy demand management activities should bring the demand and supply closer to a perceived optimum. Turkey's energy demand has grown rapidly almost every year and is expected to continue growing. However, the energy demand forecasts prepared by the Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources overestimate the demand. Recently many studies are performed by researchers to forecast the energy demand of Turkey. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique has never been used for such a study. In this study a model is proposed, using PSO-based energy demand forecasting (PSOEDF), to forecast the energy demand of Turkey more efficiently. Although there are other indicators as well, gross domestic product (GDP), population, import and export are used as basic energy indicators of energy demand. In order to show the accuracy of the algorithm, a comparison is made with the ant colony optimization (ACO) energy demand estimation model which is developed for the same problem.