EAM系统优化过程中的消极风险控制

应用项目管理和软件工程知识,对宁钢EAM系统优化项目进行分析,发现在项目开发和实施过程存在许多不确定性,从而影响项目的成功完成。因此,引入风险管理,减少系统实施过程中的不确定性,促使项目成功完成。风险管理是对风险因素进行辨识、分析和评估,并制定监督、控制风险的计划,采取积极的控制行动。本文主要对EAM系统优化过程中的消极风险因素进行辨识、分析,提出积极的控制措施。     

基于巴塞尔新资本协议的项目融资风险分析

从巴塞尔新资本协议中监管当局对项目融资风险暴露的评级标准出发,以国外某矿山为例,利用其基本设计中有关财务指标,系统分析该项目融资的风险,并利用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对项目融资风险进行了定量评估。     

黄金矿山生态环境建设项目的筛选、评价与决策方法研究

研究讨论了目前黄金矿山企业普遍存在的生态环境建设问题；采用了先对项目逐项分析，确定主要因素，然后用层次分析法得到项目权重因子，再通过对选择项目的权重排队，并结合矿山实际条件，从而进一步对方案评价与决策的方法。这种思路与方法对黄金矿山企业进行生产项目的选择和制定决策具有一定的指导意义。     

企业ERP实施关键成功因素的实证分析

针对物流企业的特点,基于风险管理的角度建立了ERP项目实施成功的关键因素模型,分别为人员、系统、转变、组织管理、实施等五类风险因素。在建立模型之后,提出假设,并通过对北京地区物流企业ERP供应商和相关企业进行了调查问卷的实证分析,运用多元回归等统计方法对原始数据进行了归纳分析,分析结果表明,研究提出的物流企业ERP项目实施五类关键成功风险因素均与ERP实施成功具有正相关关系,其中最为关键的因素是人员风险因素和实施风险因素。     

@Risk软件在工程项目不确定性分析和风险分析中的运用

基于某新建铜冶炼项目的初步财务模型,运用@Risk软件对其财务内部收益率和净现值的分布情况进行模拟,分析不确定性因素和风险因素对项目经济效益的影响程度,为投资者决策提供参考依据。模拟结果显示,原料供应的风险是影响项目效益的首要因素,其次是铜加工费TC。因此,要实现项目的经济效益,首先应确保原料来源,其他风险因素对财务内部收益率和净现值的影响排序不一致,但比较敏感的风险种类基本相同,决策者可以根据自己期望的目标采取合理的风险应对策略。     

高新技术产业化项目评价风险分析

根据高新技术产业化特点，针对高新技术产业化项目的风险，对其产业化项目评价进行风险分析，以便使高新技术产业化项目评价更为可靠。     

国外项目投资风险分析

通过对国外项目的投资风险现状分析,对风险因素识别、风险特征分析,提出防范对策。     

矿产资源开发项目决策阶段风险分析

分析了矿产资源开发项目在决策阶段的政治、法律、法规,地质资源,成本、价格,气候、地形、交通和采选工艺技术及装备等类主要风险因素,结合案例分析了如何识别这些风险因素,以及控制和减少这些风险因素对矿产资源开发项目的影响。     

高炉大修EPC总承包项目风险管理研究

针对高炉大修EPC总承包项目短、平、快的特点,研究了此类项目中可能存在的风险因素,着重从设计、采购及施工三个方面对各类风险进行了分析。研究表明:科学的风险评估及动态的预控措施,才是规避风险和实现项目目标的关键所在。     

工程EPC总承包项目采购管理

在电力工程EPC总承包项目中,采购环节在项目管理中起着关键性作用。电力工程项目具有一定的复杂性,项目周期的风险因素较多,采购风险直接影响到项目的成败。电力工程项目采购环节包含采购策划、采购执行、设备资料运输等,对EPC总承包项目进行采购管理对电力工程有着重要意义。本文主要阐述了采购管理在电力工程EPC总承包项目管理中的重要作用,分析项目全生命周期中存在的采购风险,并且提出有效的采购管理策略。     

Risk prediction with linked markers: theory

A Bayesian method to predict disease recurrence risks based on distance information between loci and allowing for uncertain gene location is presented. The methodology allows derivation of the posterior distribution of recurrence risks, from which point estimates and associated precision measures can be calculated. The resulting risk distribution accounts for all available information concerning location and relative distance, and can be updated as additional data become available.     

Understanding the relationship between relative and absolute risk

BACKGROUND: Relative risks are the most common statistics used to quantify the risk of mortal or morbid outcomes associated with different patient groups and therapeutic interventions. However, absolute risks are of greater value of both patient and physician in making clinical decisions. METHODS: The relationship between relative and absolute risks is explained using graphical aids. A program to estimate absolute risks from relative risks is available on the internet (see ftp://ftp.vanderbilt.edu/pub/biostat/absrisk+ ++.txt). This program uses a competing hazards model of morbidity and mortality to derive these estimates. RESULTS: When a patient's absolute risk is low, it can be approximated by multiplying her relative risk by the absolute risk in the reference population. This approximation fails for higher absolute risks. The relationship between relative and absolute risk can vary dramatically for different diseases. This is illustrated by breast cancer morbidity and cardiovascular mortality in American women. The accuracy of absolute risk estimates will be affected by the accuracy of relative risk estimates, by the appropriateness of the reference groups used to calculate relative risks, by the stability of cross-sectional, age-specific morbidity and mortality rates over time, by the influence of individual risk factors on multiple causes of mortality, and by the extent to which relative risks may vary over time. CONCLUSIONS: Valid absolute risk estimates are valuable when making treatment decisions. They can often be obtained over time intervals of 10 to 20 years when the corresponding relative risk estimates have been accurately determined.     

How much protection is enough?

Infectious diseases are changing patient relations. Risk is a two-way street. Not only are health care providers at risk from patients, but patients also may be at risk from health care providers. Practical measures can be taken: identify the risks; determine how to reduce them; and educate others at risk.     

Hierarchical Structuring of PPP Risks Using Interpretative Structural Modeling

Project risk management emphasizes the need to rank and prioritize risks in a project to focus the risk management efforts. This risk prioritization is of special significance in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, since project success depends upon the efficient allocation of risks to the party who can best manage it. Previous studies on risk identification and assessment of PPP project risks have only produced an unstructured list of such risks and prioritizing them on the basis of probability and impact. This paper suggests the use of interpretative structural modeling (ISM) to prepare a hierarchical structure as well as the interrelationships of these risks that would enable decision makers to take appropriate steps. MICMAC (matrice d'impacts croises-multiplication appliqué a un classemen) analysis is also done to determine the dependency and driving power of the risks. ISM, along with MICMAC analysis, provides a useful hierarchy of risks whose individual relationships are unambiguous but whose group relationships are too complex to organize intuitively and can help practitioners better understand risk dependencies and prioritize risk-mitigation efforts. This study identified 17 risks encountered during the development phase of PPP projects in Indian road sector and found that fourteen risks were weak drivers and weak dependents. Delay in financial closure, cost overrun risk, and time overrun risk have been found to have the highest dependence on other risks. The analysis can be extended by practitioners for risk analysis in other infrastructures such as railways, seaports, airports etc.     

金矿地下开采生产过程安全预警系统研究

安全预警系统通过监测监控金矿地下开采的运行状态,发现潜在的危险,预防和减少事故的发生。文中针对金矿地下开采生产和运行特点,阐述了安全预警系统的原理,构建了安全预警三维模型,分析了安全预警系统可实现的功能,以及实现路径和运行流程,为构建实用性强的金矿地下开采生产过程安全预警系统提供了参考。     

Post-splenectomy sepsis--the role of occupational health

Persons who have had their spleens removed (asplenics) have a high risk of infection. The risks from infection are life-long and the illness can be a quick, overwhelming, septicaemia, that can lead to death within 48 hours, without appropriate treatment. Many persons who have had elective splenectomy, especially before 1977, may not have had prophylactic vaccinations, antibiotics or advice. This paper describes the risks of serious infection, the prophylaxis available and the role of the occupational health department in protecting asplenic employees.     

Stroke mortality and its socioeconomic, racial, and behavioral correlates in Florida

Stroke mortality is associated both with being black and with having low socioeconomic status. However, it is uncertain to what extent that increased risk is related to rates of behavior-related risk factors, such as hypertension, cigarette smoking, obesity, or alcohol consumption. The investigators performed an ecologic analysis to estimate the contributions of behavioral risks, socioeconomic status, and black race to regional variations in stroke mortality rates among persons 55-84 years of age in Florida. They used data from the 1980 census and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 1986 through 1988. Weighted multiple linear regression models indicated that regions in Florida with high stroke mortality rates were characterized by high prevalences of poverty, obesity, and hypertension. Although limited by its ecologic design, this study suggests that socioeconomic status and prevalence of behavioral risks contribute independently to interregional disparities in stroke mortality rates in Florida. BRFSS data, now available for more than 45 States, can be used to help clarify the relative contributions of behavioral and other risks to population-based mortality rates.     

Asbestos in the air of public buildings: a public health risk?

The Environmental Health and Safety Council of the American Health Foundation has examined current estimates of cancer risks associated with the presence of asbestos-containing materials (ACM) in public buildings. The Council finds that even complete removal of asbestos from all of these buildings will provide no measurable benefit to public health. The removal of nonfriable ACM only can be postulated to protect the public against a small hypothetical risk that cannot be measured epidemiologically. Moreover, examination of the assumptions used in the risk assessment calculations leads to the conclusion that these small calculated risks are likely to represent overestimates. In recent surveys, the measured asbestos levels in indoor air cast some doubt on whether occupant exposure to asbestos levels are contributed to significantly by ACM even when some of the material is friable or in bad condition. Furthermore, the models used for cancer risk estimates assume no threshold level for cancer and conclude that any exposure is carcinogenic. This may be unjustified in light of information on the mechanisms for some asbestos-caused disease. Based on the best available data, it is very unlikely that cancer will result from indoor asbestos exposure, especially where ACM is well maintained.     

Factors Influencing Building Contractors’ Pricing for Time-Related Risks in Tenders

The contractors’ pricing for contract risks in tenders determines how much the employers have to pay for the risk transfer. Therefore, understanding the factors influencing the contractors’ pricing for contract risks is crucial for employers to optimize the cost effectiveness of risk allocation in contracts. This study investigates the factors that contractors perceive to be important when they are pricing “time-related” contract risks. A questionnaire survey was designed for collecting data from building contractors currently operating in Hong Kong. Contractors were not only required to rate the importance of individual factors, but also to state the cost implications when compared with normal pricing in the absence of the concerned factor. The findings reveal that a single factor may have two-sided implications (both inflating and deflating the prices) for which they can be in unequal scales. These scales vary according to the contractor size and the reasons of the differences are investigated. The findings also assist employers in formulating a cost effective contract strategy by equipping them with the necessary knowledge.     

Small to Medium Contractor Contingency and Assumption of Risk

This paper is the result of an investigation into the use of contingency in smaller construction firms. It summarizes recent literature classifying construction contract risks and mitigation measures. Eight major classifications are used to organize the types of risk found in the literature. The risks are described in detail with associated risk mitigation strategies. Risk modeling techniques are briefly reviewed for their contribution to the risk categorization and contingency estimating. After reviewing the researcher's concepts of risk management in the literature, interviews were conducted with estimators and∕or construction managers involved in the bidding process at 12 small to medium construction firms. The purpose of the interviews was to investigate the current risk management practices of small and medium size construction firms. The times when smaller companies used contingency had specific interest for the research. The literature findings were compared with important risk factors identified from the interviews. The main conclusion drawn from the comparison was that small to medium size contractors predominately use contingency in those situations where they are construction managers in a reimbursable contract. Generally, they do not use line item contingency in competitive bidding situations. Thus, these firms are assuming proportionally greater business risk than suggested by the literature on contingency.