基于可持续能力和协调状态的水资源系统评价方法探讨

基于可持续理论、系统协调理论内涵,从区域资源条件、生态环境、水资源开发利用水平及经济社会现状要素相互耦合、共同支撑水资源系统的角度,应用压力-状态-响应模型(PSR模型)构建了区域水资源系统综合评价指标体系,借鉴前人研究成果提出了水资源系统可持续度、协调度概念及其定量表征方法,在此基础上提出水资源系统综合评价方法,并结合有关数据对2003—2013年辽宁省水资源安全形势演进态势进行实证分析。结果表明:1研究时段内辽宁省水资源系统可持续度呈整体上升趋势,自然因素导致资源子系统可持续度变化不稳定,其余3个子系统可持续度基本呈现逐年提升态势;2研究时段内辽宁省水资源系统协调度波动变化,是资源条件、生态环境、开发利用水平和经济社会发展因素的耦合导致子系统之间的协调关系不稳定;3在研究时段内辽宁省水资源系统安全等级逐渐提高,安全态势趋于好转。未来,有关部门应在加大自然资源和生态环境保护力度、提高水资源开发利用水平和促进区域经济与社会发展的基础上,努力探索区域水资源系统协调发展和统一管理的新思路和新方法,将水资源纳入区域可持续发展进行综合管理和优化配置,以期实现区域水资源系统和谐、可持续的发展目标。     

Research on Simulated Optimal Decision Making for a Regional Water Resources System

A rational exploitation policy for regional water resources is a fundamental condition for sustainable development of the regional economy and eco-environment. Faced with global change, rapid economic growth and population explosion, research on optimal decision making for a regional water resources system becomes much more important than ever before, especially in China today. In this paper, the plain area of Hanzhong Basin is used as a case study. Through systematic analysis of the regional water resources system, a system dynamics (SD) model is established. Based on the SD model, different exploitation scenarios are set up, and the optimal scenario and related exploitation policy are determined by multiscenario-multiobjective appraisal. The modelling and analysis methodology can be shared in other regions as well.     

乌鲁木齐市水业自动化系统集成平台设计探讨

为实现乌鲁木齐市水利信息化和现代化,在结合 C/S、B/S 架构的基础上,采用 SOA架构,利用计算机网络自动化技术,将已经、正在和筹备建设的水利自动化系统工程无缝对接,形成包括源水管理、供水管理和安全保障等3个自动化系统的乌鲁木齐市水业自动化系统集成支撑平台.着重阐述安全保障自动化系统的各子系统的构建、实现功能,结合 GIS 地理信息平台进行开发,为洪水灾害预警、大坝安全监测提供几种解决方案,并尝试进行洪水风险图制作和管理.通过集成支撑平台的建设,将提升乌鲁木齐市水业集团对乌鲁木齐的水源和供水等城市水务管理能力,为乌鲁木齐市的经济与城市发展提供保障.     

对新世纪治水方略的几点认识

我国可以说是世界上治水难度最大的国家,因此治水方略,治水科技需要比外国更高一筹,应当有我们更加独特的手段。研究新世纪治水方略,应当用资源水利的观念,把水多和水少的问题结合起来一起研究,充分利用洪水资源和“云水”资源。新世纪的治水方略一是要从建立一个立体的防洪工程体系,二是要从建立防洪减灾的社会保障体系入手。     

基于灰色关联-网络层次分析模型的水资源安全综合评价

水资源安全系统是由自然、社会等因子组成的复杂系统,具有复杂和模糊的特征。综合考虑供水安全、社会安全、经济安全、生态环境安全4个方面的水资源安全问题,基于网络层次分析法(ANP),对水资源安全评价的主要控制因素进行网络层次划分和权重计算,并结合灰色关联分析法(GRA)建立了水资源安全综合评价模型。应用此评价模型对贵州省2008-2015年的水资源安全状态进行等级评价。结果表明:2008-2015年间贵州省水资源安全总体处于相对稳定状态,属较安全状态和临界安全状态范围,且安全状态等级呈现稳步上升的趋势。该评价结果与实际情况相符,说明采用GRA-ANP模型的水资源安全综合评价方法是合理有效的,该评价方法及结果可为区域水资源安全评价以及水资源开发利用提供借鉴和参考。     

TRIZ理论在水资源可持续利用中的应用

将TRIZ理论中的冲突解决原理应用于水资源可持续利用研究,通过建立并定义水资源单元、生态环境单元、经济单元、人力资源管理单元、技术创新单元的矩阵元素,寻找各单元间的冲突并建立冲突矩阵,以西藏林芝地区水资源可持续利用为例,根据TRIZ理论中40个创新原理重新定义矩阵元素,并进行论证分析,找到解决该地区水资源可持续利用问题的方案。     

Regional cooperation and benefit sharing for sustainable water resources management in the Lower Mekong Basin

Benefit sharing is a concept associated with regional cooperation for sustainable water resources management. To this end, the present study analyses how implementation of this concept may contribute to economic growth and the promotion of sustainable livelihoods in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). It focuses on the balance between economic and human development, national interests, and the procedures used to manage water resources in the basin. It was found that: (a) Benefits obtained from the Mekong River are not equally shared between riparian countries because of inadequate regional cooperation, with economic and social development in the LMB being uneven, with Thailand and Vietnam achieving better human development, poverty reduction and food security outcomes than Laos and Cambodia; (b) Lack of shared national interests, or a common development agenda, has resulted in unsustainable water resource management outcomes; and (c) Procedures for water resources management agreed by the four LMB countries are well‐aligned with the conceptual framework for benefit sharing defined by Sadoff and Grey (2002, Water Policy, 4, 389), although while these procedures have the potential to facilitate a more cooperative agenda for equitable sharing of social, economic and environmental benefits from the water resources of the Mekong River, implementation of the 1995 Mekong Agreement currently remains controversial. The five procedures for water resource management developed by the Mekong River Commission have not resulted in satisfactory outcomes, due in part to the institution lacking regulatory authority.     

区域水资源可持续利用预警评价的理论框架探讨

为建立系统性和可操作性的区域水资源可持续利用预警评价的理论框架,从方法论的角度,阐述了区域水资源系统、区域水资源可持续利用和区域水资源可持续利用预警评价的基本概念,论述了区域水资源可持续利用系统的预警原理和调控原理,提出了区域水资源可持续利用预警评价方法论,上述理论框架在区域水安全管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。     

基于改进SD的区域水土资源联合配置研究

将区域水土资源联合配置的多学科综合与新技术的应用成果相结合,以水土资源联合配置的体系为基础,定量刻化了水资源、土地资源配置系统与社会、经济、环境发展之间的互动影响关系,将包括需水、供水、土地需求及供给和生态环境影响等相关的水资源、土地资源联合配置的要素,与社会、经济、环境系统耦合成一个复杂的水资源-土地资源-社会经济-生态模拟系统,利用基于图论改进的流率基本入树的系统动力学(SD)规范建模方法,建立起了比较完整的区域水土资源优化配置的系统动力学流率基本入树模型。运用该模型,对位于苏南丘陵地区的句容市按照不同水土资源联合配置方案(情景)的水资源、土地资源与社会经济环境耦合系统进行模拟计算,该计算结果可为水资源、土地资源的联合统一管理提供基础支撑。     

Appreciating Institutional Complexity in Water Governance Dynamics: A Case from the Murray-Darling Basin,Australia

Water managing systems are becoming more complex as new institutional arrangements are created in response to a changing climate. Our inquiry centred on the ‘water managing system’ within a nested set of Australian water governance regimes, including relevant local, regional, state and national governance regimes. New institutions in national and state systems, seemingly intended to reduce complexity through centralisation or integration, only increase complexity by adding to the existing mix of institutional arrangements. This complexity can reduce the effectiveness of water managing organisations by increasing administrative burden, creating high costs of entry for new staff and leading to confusion in communications with external stakeholders. Regional water managers deal with this complexity by drawing on relational capital built from long-term engagement in the water managing system. However, relational capital is difficult to build and easy to destroy, thus this ‘soft’ capacity is under threat from shifts in decision making power and of resources out of regional water governance systems. Institutional innovation is therefore required to create opportunities to build relational capital in order to effectively manage natural resources at the regional level as coupled socio-ecological systems.     

水资源开发利用复杂巨系统研究

根据开放的复杂巨系统理论,从水资源、环境、人口和经济发展入手,剖析了水资源开发利用系统的构成要素,认为水资源开发利用是一个开放的复杂巨系统,系统具有高维性、开放性、动态性等特点,本研究对正确认识水资源开发利用的制约因素,促进开发过程的全面、协调和可持续发展都具有重要意义。     

基于层次分析法的成都市水安全评价

为了研究成都市水资源的可持续发展现状,在PSR模型的基础上,充分结合成都市的实际情况建立了城市水安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析法计算各指标的权重,最终得出成都市水安全评价综合指数,并使用相关分析方法,对未来水安全情况进行预测。结果表明:2005年-2013年成都市水安全状况均处于安全状态。为了进一步保证社会、经济、资源、环境的协调发展,提出了如下建议:采取措施来提高市民的节水意识;加大技术投入,建立节水型城市;实现水资源的合理利用,提高水资源的利用率;增加环境投资,提高工业和生活污水处理率;完善城市水资源管理系统和预警机制,提升应对突发性水环境事件及水资源问题的能力。     

浙江省滩涂资源三维管理信息系统设计与实现

滩涂资源既是一种重要的自然资源,又是环境资源和经济资源。为准确掌握滩涂资源的现状及其动态变化,基于SuperMap和Skyline平台,开发了滩涂资源三维管理信息系统。系统具有围垦滩涂资源管理、围垦工程管理、资源时空变化分析、滩涂演变分析等功能。系统应用表明滩涂资源三维管理信息系统能为滩涂资源的可持续利用提供信息支撑,为滩涂资源规划、滩涂资源开发提供决策支持。     

Decision Support Systems for Sustainable Management of Water Resources: 2. Case Studies

ABSTRACT

The new ethic of sustainable development extends the main principles of water resources management. Computer-based decision support systems are explored in order to identify their role in the implementation of these principles into water resource management practice. The first part of this research (see the previous article in this issue) has demonstrated that sustainable development is a global concept that needs to be made reality in any component of every decision support system to be developed for successful management of water resources. This article presents four successful case studies of decision support systems (DSSs) for sustainable management of water resources. Development of a DSS for sustainable water resource management is seen as a process, and while the issues covered in these four examples are the priorities in their respective domains, it is certain that new issues will emerge in different fields of application. So, what is presented here is thus a snapshot of current best efforts     

Effectiveness of Water Management in Europe in the 21st Century

Research on water scarcity and water management in Europe has accelerated significantly in the past two decades, mainly as a result of growing water demand for agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses. Most research studies in the field evaluate water use and management by means of static indicators that depict a one-time value for a given time period (e.g., one year). This paper suggests a dynamic indicator measuring product (here: water) generational dematerialization. The indicator presents a comprehensive approach for evaluating water resources and water management strategies, as it represents a function of both resource use changes and population changes occurring simultaneously and over time. To accentuate the benefits of this dynamic indicator over static indicators as well as its practical applicability for decision-making support, the paper evaluates water management in Europe based on the total water use between 2001 and 2013. The results show that water management estimated cumulatively for the analyzed European countries has been effective for the last 13 years, though significant regional variations have been found. The research and the dynamic water generational dematerialization indicator can be helpful with addressing regional and national water deficit problems and designing sustainable water management strategies in the mid- and long-run.     

基于主体功能区的重庆市水资源合理配置

以重庆市为例,从水资源的角度,结合全国及重庆市全面实施最严格水资源管理制度,落实“三条红线”的现实要求,探讨如何通过合理配置,促使区域有限的水资源与重庆市主体功能区相协调,以支撑重庆市经济社会健康、快速、持续发展.     

Using a Cognitive Mapping Approach to Frame the Perceptions of Water Users About Managing Water Resources: A Case Study in the Australian Capital Territory

In complex socio-ecological systems, such as managing natural resources, human frames and mental models play a central role in deriving the system’s behaviour. Differences in stakeholder views and perceptions may impede the design and implementation of collective policies. Understanding stakeholder views and mental models is a pre-requisite for understanding decision making, improving communication, and eventually developing management policies that cater to the diversity of values and interests. Motivated by this premise, this research uses a cognitive mapping approach to examine the frames used by a group of water users with regard to managing available water resources. We focus on the Australian Capital Territory as a case study. Two different frames have emerged from the results: hard and soft. Differences in frames embody various perceptions about the problem definition, its causes, effective management strategies, and hence, responsibility attribution. The paper describes both frames and highlights those perceptions that may stand as barriers against sustainable management. These findings can be transferred to other arid and semi-arid areas.     

Towards the Sustainable Use of Water: A Regional Approach for Baden-Wuerttemberg,Germany

Sustainable water management is an essential prerequisite for any sustainable development. As water is a regional resource, concepts for sustainable water management can only be developed at a regional level. Therefore the CTA carried out a regional study to assess the water resources in the state of Baden-Wuerttembergand to find out whether water management in Baden-Wuerttemberg can be regarded as sustainable. Whereas water quantity is not a major problem in Baden-Wuerttemberg,the question of water quality demands our full attention. The main threats to water quality are agriculture, airborne depositions and inadequate wastewater management. In addition, all decisions concerning water management have to be considered under energy aspects. Water, a renewable resource, should not be substituted by non-renewable resources such as fossil fuel.     

基于系统动力学的江苏水资源系统安全仿真与控制

在对区域水资源系统分析的基础上,构建了江苏水资源安全系统动力学模型,并进行了模拟仿真。结果表明2018年后江苏省将出现水资源供需安全问题。通过定量分析找出影响江苏省水资源安全系统的4大动力因素,并设计6种不同的解决方案,通过方案对比分析得出水资源可持续利用的最优方案是综合型方案。最后,对江苏省水资源可持续发展提出了相应的政策建议。     

基于生态补偿的区域水权交易价格研究

以区域间水权交易为研究对象,通过分析同一流域和跨流域两种不同的区域水权交易特征,提出基于替代方案成本估计的生态补偿方法,建立基于生态补偿机制的区域水权交易价格定价模型,为水权交易制度建设提供方法储备。