THE MANAGEMENT MODES OF SEASONAL FLOODS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM DAMS IN QUEBEC (CANADA)

The goal of the study was to compare the modes of management of seasonal floods for different dams and to constrain their impact on the relationship between climate variables and streamflow downstream from the dams. At the Rawdon dam, downstream from which the Ouareau River is characterized by a natural‐type regulated flow regime, a ‘type A’ flood management mode prevails, in which the same rainfall and/or snowmelt events account for seasonal floods both in the unregulated (natural) stretch of river upstream from the dam and in the river downstream from the dam. As a result, seasonal floods in the natural setting and downstream from the dam are nearly synchronous. In contrast, downstream from the Matawin dam (Matawin River), which produces an inversion‐type regulated flow regime, the prevalent flood management modes are of types B and D, whereby seasonal floods observed upstream and downstream from the dam are not caused by the same rainfall and/or snowmelt events and, as a result, are not synchronous. This difference in seasonal flood management modes affects the interannual variability of the magnitude of seasonal daily maximum flows related to the seasonal floods. Thus, the interannual variability of these flows downstream from the Matawin dam differs significantly from that of flows upstream. No correlation is observed between climate variables and streamflow downstream from the Matawin dam. This absence of correlation disappears gradually at the annual scale, at which streamflow is correlated with rainfall, as is observed upstream from the dam. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological changes and river regulation in the UK

Water levels of streams and rivers in the United Kingdom have been regulated by weirs for more than one thousand years, but regulation of the flow regime by impoundments began in the latter half on the 19th Century. Organized river flow measurements were not undertaken until 1935, and today the average record length is about 20 years. Only three gauging stations have provided data suitable for pre- and post-impoundment comparisons. Other studies have relied on the comparison of regulated and naturalized discharges. In either case climate and land-use changes make evaluation of the hydrological effect of impoundments problematic. This paper reviews research on hydrological changes due to river regulation in the UK, and presents a case study of the River Severn to evaluate the influence of Clywedog Reservoir on flood magnitude and frequency. Consequent upon dam completion, on average, median flows have been reduced by about 50per cent; mean annual floods have been reduced by about 30per cent; and low flows have been maintained at about 22 per cent higher than the natural Q₉₅ discharge. However, marked differences exist between rivers. The direct effect of reservoir compensation flows and the indirect effect of inter basin transfers for supply have significantly increased minimum flows in most rivers, although in the case of the latter this involves the discharge of treated effluents. In contrast, the effects of impoundments on flood magnitude and frequency is less clear and on the River Severn, at least, changes in flood hydrology during the past two decades are shown to be more related to climate change than to river regulation.     

Hydrology under climate change in a temporary river system: Potential impact on water balance and flow regime

The potential impacts of future climate scenarios on water balance and flow regime are presented and discussed for a temporary river system in southern Italy. Different climate projections for the future (2030–2059) and the recent conditions (1980–2009) were investigated. A hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate water balance at the basin scale and streamflow in a number of river sections under various climate change scenarios, based on different combinations of global and regional models (global circulation models and regional climate models). The impact on water balance components was quantified at the basin and subbasin levels as deviation from the baseline (1980–2009), and the flow regime alteration under changing climate was estimated using a number of hydrological indicators. An increase in mean temperature for all months between 0.5–2.4 °C and a reduction in precipitation (by 4–7%) was predicted for the future. As a consequence, a decline of blue water (7–18%) and total water yield (11–28%) was estimated. Although the river type classification remains unvaried, the flow regime distinctly moves towards drier conditions and the divergence from the current status increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I‐D (ie, intermittent‐dry) and E (ephemeral). Hydrological indicators showed a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations, an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of extreme low flow conditions. A reduction of snowfall in the mountainous part of the basin and an increase in potential evapotranspiration was also estimated (4–4.4%). Finally, the paper analyses the implications of the climate change for river ecosystems and for River Basin Management Planning. The defined quantitative estimates of water balance alteration could support the identification of priorities that should be addressed in upcoming years to set water‐saving actions.     

Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins

Climate change (CC) and drought episode impacts linked with anthropogenic pressure have become an increasing concern for policy makers and water resources managers. The current research presents a comprehensive methodology but simple approach for predicting the annual streamflow alteration based on drought indices and hydrological alteration indicators. This has been achieved depending on the evaluation of drought severity and CC impacts during the human intervention periods to separate the influence of climatic abnormality and measure the hydrologic deviations as a result of streamflow regulation configurations. As a representative case study, the Lesser Zab River Basin in northern Iraq has been chosen. In order to analyse the natural flow regime, 34 hydrological years of streamflow (1931–1965) prior to the main dam construction were assessed. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method has been applied to quantify the hydrological alterations of various flow characteristics. In addition, an easy approach for hydrological drought prediction in relatively small basins grounded on meteorological parameters during the early months of the hydrological year has been presented. The prediction was accomplished by implementing the one-dimensional drought examination and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) for evaluating the severity of meteorological drought. The proposed methodology is founded on linear regression relations connecting the RDI of 3, 6, and 12 months and the streamflow drought index (SDI). The results are critical for circumstances where an early exploration of meteorological drought is obtainable. Outcomes assist water resources managers, engineers, policy makers and decision-makers responsible for mitigating the effects of CC.     

The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates

Under current global change, the driving force of evolution of drought has gradually transitioned from a single natural factor to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, widely used standardised drought indices based on assumption of stationarity are challenged and may not accurately assess characteristics of drought processes. In this study, a nonstationary standardised streamflow index (NSSI) that incorporates climate and reservoir indices as external covariates was developed to access nonstationary hydrological drought. The first step of the proposed approach is to apply methods of trend and change point analysis to assess the nonstationarity of streamflow series to determine type of streamflow regime, that is, the natural and altered regime. Then, different nonstationary models were constructed to calculate the NSSI by selecting climate indices as covariates for streamflow series with natural regime, and climate and reservoir indices as covariate for streamflow series with altered regime. Four stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River basin, China, were selected to examine the performance of the proposed NSSI. The results indicated that Dapoling (DPL), Changtaiguan (CTG), and Xixian (XX) stations had natural streamflow regimes, while the Nanwan (NW) station had an altered regime. The global deviances of the optimal nonstationary models were 17 (2.2%), 18 (2.9%), 26 (4.0%), and 22 (3.5%) less than those of stationary models for DPL, CTG, NW, and XX stations, respectively. Especially, for the NW station influenced by reservoir regulations, the frequency of slight drought and moderate drought of NSSI was 12.8% lower than and 13.1% greater than those of SSI, respectively. Overall, the NSSI that incorporates the influence of climate variability and reservoir regulations provided more reliable assessment of hydrological drought than the traditional SSI.

     

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Tarim River Basin

The plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin, west China is investigated in this study. The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow are detected by using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The possible association between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series are tested. This study enhances the knowledge of the climate change impact on water resources in the Tarim River basin. The conclusion obtained in this investigation shows that the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the 5% level of significance during the past 50 yr, and precipitation also exhibited an upward tendency during the past several decades. A significant jump is also detected for both time series around 1986. This may be resulted from the possible impact of climate change, although the interior climate mechanism needs further investigation. Although precipitation and the streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited significant increase, decreasing trend has been detected in the streamflow along the mainstream of the river. It implies that anthropogenic activities instead of the climate change dominated the streamflow cessation and the drying-up of the river. Results also showed that no significant association exists between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow in the study area. This conclusion shows that the water curtailment, river desiccation, and ecosystem deterioration in the Tarim River basin may be mainly resulted from the impact of human activities.     

A flood risk projection for Yongdam dam against future climate change

A sensitivity analysis of the flood safety of Yongdam Dam using a regional climate change simulation is presented. Based on the output of the CCSM (Community Climate System Model) general circulation model, the SNURCM (Seoul National University Regional Climate Model) computes regional scale output with 60 km spatial resolution and 21 vertical layers. Using the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenario) “B1” climate change scenario when applied to the Geum river basin, where Yongdam Dam is located, SNURCM reduces significantly the bias in Annual Maximum Event total Precipitation (AMEP) & Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation (AMDP) that CCSM shows. The streamflow change scenario is then simulated using SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model.A rainfall-runoff model was implemented using precipitation and temperature projected by CCSM and SNURCM. The model demonstrated that average streamflow would increase 38.7% and the variability would increase 14.3%. This remarkable increase in projected annual maximum flow for the next 20 years (2000-2019) should be a significant negative signal to water resources managers. This streamflow change scenario was then inputted into the G-RiBSS (Geum River Basin Systems Simulator) model to assess the sensitivity of the current river basin system to possible climate change. The result indicates that the number of floods remains almost the same, but that the magnitude of a single flood event and the recovery from it become worse.     

Assessing the effects of hydrological and chemical stressors on macroinvertebrate community in an Alpine river: The Adige River as a case study

In this study, the combined effects of hydrological and chemical stressors on benthic macroinvertebrates were evaluated in order to explore the response of the biological community to multiple stressors. The Adige River, located in the south‐eastern Alps, was selected as a case study because representative of the situation of a large river in which the variety of stressors present in the Alpine region act simultaneously. As expected, streamflow showed a seasonal pattern, with high flows in the spring–summer period; however, locally, the natural hydrological regime was altered by the presence of hydropower systems, which chiefly affected low flows. Multivariate analysis showed seasonal and spatial patterns in both chemical and hydrological parameters with a clear gradient in the concentration of nitrate, personal care, and pharmaceutical products moving from headwaters to the main stem of the river. The macroinvertebrate community composition was significantly different in summer and winter and between up and downstream sites. Streamflow alteration chiefly due to water use by hydropower affected community composition but not richness or diversity. Gammarus sp., Hirudinea, and Psychomyia sp., were positively correlated with flow variability, increasing their densities in the sites with higher streamflow variability because of hydropeaking. The results obtained in this study show that the composition of the macroinvertebrate community responded to seasonality and to changes in the main stressors along the river and highlights the importance of the spatial and temporal variability of stressors in this Alpine river. Taking into account, this variability will help the decision‐making process for improving basin management.     

变化范围法评估北江流域水文情势变化

通过分析北江石角站实测径流资料,应用变化范围法(RVA)评估北江流域水文情势变化.认为总体上属低改变度到中改变度阶段,个别指标达到高改变度;干支流径流式水库,其枯水期运行调度对北江流域水文情势影响较大,而汛期运行调度对水文情势影响较小;飞来峡水库运行对北江中下游水文情势的改变幅度不大,但个别水文改变指标(IHA)改变度较高,有必要进一步优化飞来峡水库调度方案,减轻对北江河流自然生态的破坏,把IHA改变度降至最低,实现人水和谐.     

Climate Change and Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract

Scenarios of global climate change were examined to see what impacts they might have on transboundary water management in the Columbia River basin. Scenario changes in natural streamflow were estimated using a basin hydrology model. These scenarios tended to show earlier seasonal peaks, with possible reductions in total annual flow and lower minimum flows. Impacts and adaptation responses to the natural streamflow scenarios were determined through two exercises: (a) estimations of system reliability using a reservoir model with performance measures and (b) interviews with water managers and other stakeholders in the Canadian portion of the basin. Results from the two exercises were similar, suggesting a tendency towards reduced reliability to meet objectives for power production, fisheries, and agriculture. Reliability to meet flood control objectives would be relatively unchanged in some scenarios but reduced in others. This exercise suggests that despite the high level of development and management in the Columbia, vulnerabilities would still exist, and impacts could still occur in scenarios of natural streamflow changes caused by global climate change. Many of these would be indirect, reflecting the complex relationship between the region and its climate.     

A deterministic hydrological approach to estimate climate change impact on river flow: Vu Gia–Thu Bon catchment,Vietnam

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing mankind in the 21st century. Extreme climatic events are expected to be more frequent and severe leading to various natural disasters. Vietnam, with more than 70% of the population working in agriculture and having a high density of inhabitants on the coastal plains, is one among those countries heavily impacted by climate change. The aim of this paper is to present a methodology to assess the impacts of climate change on a flood prone area of a coastal river basin in the central region of Vietnam. The hydrological simulations are based on a validated deterministic hydrological model MIKE SHE, which integrates geology, soil, topography, river systems and climate variables. The present-day climate, over the period of 1991–2010, was reasonably simulated by the hydrological model. Future climate (2091–2100) information was obtained from a dynamical downscaling of the global climate models, CCSM3.0, MIROC-medres and ECHAM5 under A2 scenario, using the Regional Climate Model: Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The result indicates that with this area, the ensemble future river flow under scenario A2 might increase up to 200% during rainy season and reduce to roughly 7–30% during dry season. The study also analyzed the changes in the flood dynamics of the study region, the hydrological shift and the uncertainties of climate change simulation. This paper showcases an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would help in devising resilience strategies.     

Effects of land‐use change and climate variability on streamflow in the Woken River basin in Northeast China

In this study, the soil and water assessment tool, which is a widely used hydrological model, is applied to study the response of streamflow to land‐use changes and climate variability in the Woken River basin in northeastern China. This model is calibrated and verified based on sensitivity analysis to simulate the effects of land‐use change, climate variability, and extreme land‐use scenarios on streamflow. Simulations are performed to construct different scenarios for quantitative analysis. Compared with the base period, the land‐use change reduced the annual average streamflow and had little effect on the monthly streamflow. Climate variability increased the average annual streamflow and had a substantial effect on monthly streamflow. The effect of climate variability on streamflow was much greater than that of land‐use changes. Under the extreme land‐use scenarios, the annual average streamflow under the forestland scenario decreased, and the average annual streamflow under the grassland and agricultural land scenarios increased. Both the forestland and grassland scenarios exhibited lower monthly streamflow from March to August with especially large influences in June–August, which was when floods were more likely to occur. The agricultural land scenario exhibited the opposite trend. These results indicate that climate variability will obviously change streamflow and that natural disasters related to both high and heavy precipitation must be emphasised. Relevant departments can optimize the land‐use structure and spatial layout to mitigate the negative effects of climate variability.     

滦河流域大中型闸坝水文生态效应

为揭示滦河流域水库对下游河流水文影响,辨析其生态效应,建立了流域闸坝水生态效应评估体系,运用河流影响因子(RI)法评估了闪电河、庙宫、潘家口和桃林口水库的水生态效应,进一步运用水文变化范围(RVA)法评估了潘家口水库的水生态效应。结果表明:1各水库对水文的影响程度为:潘家口桃林口闪电河庙宫,水库的水文效应同时受其级别(库容)和河流原始径流量影响,小型河流水库的水文生态效应不容忽视。2潘家口水库IHA指标(RVA法)总改变度为0.88,第1~2组指标发生了高度改变(0.91),第3~5组指标发生中度改变(0.45),强烈改变了鱼类洄游、底栖生物和植物群落等生态过程。生态水文同步监测与生态模型构建将有助于提升河流生态系统预警能力,为河流生态恢复提供科学依据和技术工具。     

Effects of hydrological changes on cooperation in transnational catchments: the case of the Syr Darya

Water allocation along the Syr Darya River may be affected by climate change. Here we statistically model cooperation strategies, country profits, and sensitivity of cooperation, showing that the hydrological regime affects transboundary cooperation. Climate change in the twenty-first century may reduce glacial cover, and reducing stream flows, decreasing chances of cooperation and potentially raising conflicts. Comparison with other transboundary catchments in Central Asia indicates moderate-to-high risk of conflicts for the Syr Darya. A template is provided for assessment of the stability of cooperation in the Syr Darya basin, and in catchments similarly dependent on water availability.     

汉江下游流域生态流量区域特征指标的优选

在评价河流水文情势变化特征时,传统水文改变指标法（indicators of hydrologic alteration,IHA）存在的指标间相关性高和数据冗余问题会造成整体评价偏差。对汉江下游流域的河流水文情势评价时,考虑到汉江流域干支流日均流量及取水调水工程等的影响,分别选择汉江干流上的3个水文站及支流流域的3个水文站点,采用主成分分析法对6个水文站IHA指标进行优选,再利用相关性分析结果进一步筛选,优选出适用于评价汉江下游流域水文情势的13个代表性指标,分别为2月流量、4月流量、7月流量、10月流量、12月流量、基流指数、最低流量出现日期、最高流量出现日期、低流量脉冲次数、高流量持续时间、日均流量增加率、日平均流量减少率和日均流量反转数。结果表明：6个水文站的代表性指标间相关性均大幅降低,13个代表性指标间的相关系数不超过0.3的占比约70%;经变化范围评价法（range of variability approach,RVA）验证,IHA指标与优选出的代表性指标对汉江下游流域整体水文改变度评价结果的差值均小于7.5个百分点,表明其能够对汉江下游流域提供较为全面合理的水文情势变化...     

CLASSIFICATION OF FLOW REGIMES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ASSESSMENT IN REGULATED RIVERS: THE HUAI RIVER BASIN,CHINA

Flow regime characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration, seasonal timing and rates of change) play a primary role in regulating the biodiversity and ecological processes in rivers. River classification provides the foundation for comparing the hydrologic regimes of rivers and development of hydro‐ecological relationships to inform environmental flow management and river restoration. This paper presents a classification of natural flow regimes and hydrologic changes due to dams and floodgates in the Huai River Basin, China, in preparation for an environmental flow assessment. The monthly natural flow regime of 45 stations in the upper and middle Huai River Basin were simulated for the period 1963–2000, based on the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Six classes of flow patterns (low or high discharge, stable or variable, perennial or intermittent, predictable or unpredictable) were identified based on 80 hydrologic metrics, analysed by hierarchical clustering algorithms. The ecologically relevant climatic and geographic characteristics of these flow classes were tested for concordance with, and to strengthen, the hydro‐ecological classification. The regulation of natural flow patterns by dams and floodgates changed flows at some locations within each flow class and caused some gauges to shift into another class. The research reported here is expected to provide a foundation for development of hydro‐ecological relationships and environmental flow methods for wider use in China, as well as setting a new scientific direction for integrated river basin management in the Huai River Basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水库运用对河流水文情势影响的IHA法评价——以伊河陆浑水库为例

水流是河流生物环境的主要决定因素之一,影响生物群落组成及其多样性。水利工程会改变河流天然径流过程,研究河流的水文情势具有十分重要的意义。基于龙门镇水文站实测流量数据,采用IHA法就陆浑水库运用对伊河径流过程的影响进行了评价。结果表明,陆浑水库的运用对龙门镇水文站水文年极值出现时间变化的影响不大,而对月流量、年极值、频率、延时和变化率指标改变显著,明显改变了下游河道水文情势,对下游河道内的水生态环境产生了较大影响。     

HYDROLOGIC MODIFICATION FROM HYDROELECTRIC POWER OPERATIONS IN A MOUNTAIN BASIN

The natural flow paradigm suggests that components of the natural streamflow regime and variability should be managed to maintain important ecosystem functions and services. Mountain rivers can exhibit extreme flow variability and provide critical aquatic habitat and ecosystem services but can be severely impacted by hydroelectric power (HEP) development and operations that will likely increase in the future. The hydrologic modification from HEP operations in the Upper San Joaquin River Basin, California, was evaluated across 15 river and stream locations throughout the basin. Flow modifications in Bear Creek, an otherwise unimpacted high‐elevation subbasin, were evaluated in detail using a number of hydrologic metrics, including Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA), environmental flow components of IHA, flow duration curves, ecodeficit and comparisons using equivalence testing. The uncertainty of the metrics based on confidence intervals was also evaluated for unimpaired (upstream) and existing (impaired or downstream) conditions. Results showed that metrics for median values changed considerably for most locations under impaired conditions, but the direction and extent of change varied depending on the location and flow metric. Metrics for variability (coefficients of dispersion) changed even more. Most metrics showed that flow modifications in Bear Creek were substantial, including decreases in high flows and increases in most low‐flow metrics. However, some flow variability metrics increased because of large flood flows during several years overwhelming and bypassing the dam/diversion structure. Uncertainty in metrics varied considerably throughout the basin but generally increased for impaired conditions. Uncertainty should be explicitly considered when evaluating hydrologic modification from HEP in mountain watersheds. A number of metrics should be used depending on objectives and spatial scale, including a subset of key IHA metrics across multiple sites and other methods to provide detailed information on flow modification in conjunction with other environmental flow assessment techniques at key locations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: implications for freshwater ecosystems

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee–Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river–floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee–Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee–Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre‐large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河水量统一调度与调水调沙对河口的生态水文影响

从具有生态学意义的流量、频率、出现时间、持续时间和变化率等5种水文要素出发，采用水文变化指标体系定量评估了黄河水量统一调度与调水调沙对河口段生态水文情势的影响，讨论了河口环境水流需求以及调水调沙后水文情势对环境水流的满足程度。研究结果表明，与水量统一调度前相比，水量统一调度与调水调沙后利津断面水文情势有所改善，年极小值流量明显增加，但是水文过程变化率降低，洪水漫滩过程消失，水文过程趋于平缓。目前河口段水文情势能够满足枯水期适宜生态流量需求，汛前4—5月关键期无法满足适宜生态流量与流量脉冲过程，汛期除缺乏洪水脉冲过程外，基本能够满足高流量输沙需求。