基于SWAT和GIS的洱海流域土地利用变化对径流影响的研究

利用DEM、土地利用、土壤、气象等时空数据并结合GIS和RS技术,建立洱海流域SWAT模型,分析了2000年和2010年不同土地利用情景对径流的影响,其结果为洱海流域土地利用变化引起径流的变化率为2.46%。以《云南省土地利用总体规划大纲(2006—2020)》为依据,结合洱海流域土地利用分布的实际情况,设置3种土地利用情景,研究不同土地利用情景对径流的影响。结果表明情景1中,66.06 km²的耕地转林地和89.16 km²的耕地转草地,模拟的年均径流值增加75.73 mm;情景2中,100.13 km²的裸地和105.74 km²的草地转为耕地,年均径流增加39.89 mm;情景3中,138.72 km²的草地和292.86 km²林地转耕地,年均径流减少20.36 mm。模拟表明在坡度15°以上,洱海流域森林和草地面积的增加将会增加径流量;在坡度15°以下,耕地的增加会一定程度上减少径流量。研究成果为洱海流域水资源空间合理调配提供参考依据。     

Land Surface Roughness Effects on Lake Effect Precipitation

The land use of the Great Lakes region has changed significantly during historical times, and continues to change. As a preliminary step in investigating the overall effect that this might have on climate, attention is focused here on one forcing factor and one effect—land surface roughness length and lake effect precipitation, respectively—that are anticipated to be particularly sensitive pieces of the land use-climate interaction. On both a monthly basis and in an individual case of lake effect precipitation, a reduction of land surface roughness reduces the total amount of lake effect precipitation. It also reduces the degree to which the precipitation is focused on the area closest to the lakeshore. The largest reductions occur immediately adjacent to the lakeshore in an area smaller than the overall lake effect zone. In the individual lake effect event that is investigated here, precipitation increases in some places farther inland when surface roughness is reduced. Because this increase in precipitation farther inland appears to be associated with significant topography, this result is most valid for lake effect zones where there is a high topographic relief, such as near southeastern Lake Erie (the main focus of this study), and to the south and east of Lake Ontario. This displacement in location of precipitation is particularly crucial where the boundary of the drainage basin is near the shoreline, and can indicate a flux of moisture out of the Great Lakes drainage basin and into another basin.     

Prioritizing Structural Management by Quantifying the Effect of Land Use and Land Cover on Watershed Runoff and Sediment Yield

Hydrological processes in a mixed land use watershed are significantly influenced by land use (LU) and land cover (LC). In order to quantify the effect of LU/LC, topography, and morphology, runoff and sediment yield of a small multivegetated watershed in a sub-humid subtropical region in India were simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and were compared with measured values. The mixed land use watershed displayed a synchronized runoff response to monsoon rains. Measured runoff and sediment yield varied one sub-watershed to another and ranged, respectively, from 256.33 to 367.83 mm and from 0.27 to 11.65 t/ha for 734.90 mm of rainfall in 2000 and from 310.36 to 393.49 mm and from 0.84 to 10.71 t/ha for 765.50 mm of rainfall in 2001. The correlation coefficient between rainfall and runoff was 0.86, that between runoff and sediment yield was 0.56, and that between rainfall and sediment yield was 0.55. The sub-watersheds with relatively high forest cover (SWS1 and SWS2) showed significantly less runoff and sediment yield (310.36 mm and 0.84 t/ha), whereas a sub-watershed with more area under cultivation produced higher runoff (393.5 mm) and higher sediment yield (11.65 t/ha). Measured and model simulated estimates of runoff and sediment yield from different sub-watersheds were employed to prioritize control measures in the watershed comprising areas under cultivation, waste, fallow and eroded land, and forest and bushes. The average estimates of sediment yield from different sub-watersheds were used to prioritize the checkdam construction as an effective measure to control sediment transport to downstream water resources.     

Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change on Surface Runoff in an Increasingly Urbanized Tropical Watershed

Water Resources Management - Upper-Brantas watershed in East Java, Indonesia, is a tropical watershed experiencing rapid landscape change, a phenomenon typical to developing countries. This study...     

土地利用变化对径流影响的定量研究

为定量研究径流对土地利用变化的响应,以淮河上游潢川流域为例,分析不同时期土地利用空间转移规律,结合SWAT模型,通过选取典型子流域,定量分析流域土地利用变化对径流的影响。结果表明:在不同时期,研究区旱地面积变化较大,主要转化为水田与林地,草地、城镇用地及水域几乎没有变化;研究区土地利用方式的改变导致年径流深明显减小,原因是水田大面积增多能够促进水面蒸散发,同时林地的增多也滞缓了径流汇集速度,进一步增加了蒸发。     

An Attempt to Decompose the Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Annual Runoff in a Small Agricultural Catchment

Water Resources Management - The aims of this study are: i) to better understand the coupled interactions between land use changes, climate change and the aquatic ecosystem in a small agricultural...     

汾河水库上游年径流演变趋势分析

应用Kendall秩次相关法、游程分析法和自相关分析法,研究了汾河水库上游半个世纪以来年径流的演变趋势。结果表明:①年径流量总体呈下降趋势,但在20世纪70年代以前的演变趋势并不明显;②各时段间的转折点跳跃均不显著;③年径流系列的相依性并不明显;④20世纪70年代以后年径流量呈减少趋势的原因与年降水量的变化无关。     

Individual Influence of Climate Variability Indices on Annual Maximum Precipitation Across the Global Scale

Water Resources Management - Studying the influence of climate variability indices on extreme precipitation will help to understand the variability of extreme precipitation. However, the influence...     

雅鲁藏布江中下游年径流变化趋势分析

采用滑动平均法、斯皮尔曼秩次相关检验法、肯德尔秩次相关检验法,对雅鲁藏布江中下游奴下站1956—2009年的年径流量变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:1956—1965年的年径流量呈显著上升趋势;1966—1991年的年径流量存在波动变化,但变幅较小;1992—2003年的年径流量呈显著上升趋势;2004年以后年径流量呈下降趋势但不显著。     

雨强和地表糙度对坡面微地形及侵蚀的影响

地表糙度是影响坡面侵蚀产沙的重要因素之一,以往研究多关注糙度对坡面产流产沙特征的影响,而较少关注不同糙度条件下坡面微地形变化和侵蚀产沙的关系。通过人工模拟降雨试验,结合Photoscan技术研究了不同雨强和地表糙度对坡面微地形及产流产沙的影响。结果表明:在试验条件下,降雨后光滑坡面和粗糙坡面4个微地形因子(地表糙度、地形起伏度、地表切割度、洼地蓄积量)数值均减小,且有随雨强增大,其减幅增大的趋势;相同雨强和降雨历时条件下,粗糙坡面微地形因子变化幅度大于光滑坡面,微地形因子变化量与侵蚀产沙量呈明显正相关;与光滑地表相比,粗糙地表只在降雨初期能有效减少产流,随着降雨时间延长,2种坡面的产流率趋于一致;在试验选取的4个雨强条件下,粗糙坡面和光滑坡面产流率均呈现先增大后趋于稳定的趋势。粗糙坡面产沙率和产流率变化规律一致,但光滑坡面产沙率表现出在产流初期迅速增大,而后呈降低并趋于稳定的趋势。研究结果可为揭示坡面土壤侵蚀机理和建立坡面侵蚀产沙模型提供参考。     

Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Runoff from a Great Lakes Watershed

Daily VEMAP output from the Hadley Coupled Climate Model (HadCM2) and land use projections from the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments are used to examine the impacts of climate change and land use change on a regional watershed in southeastern lower Michigan. The precipitation, temperature, moisture, and solar radiation output from HadCM2 are processed before they are used as input to a modified version of the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The modified BATS model (BATS/HYDRO) includes the original 18 BATS land use types along with six new urban land classes as well as an improved surface runoff model, which accounts for impervious surfaces and depression storage. The daily VEMAP output is verified against observations and shown to be appropriate for use as input to the BATS/HYDRO model. The BATS/HYDRO model is then tested with observed NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data and shown to reproduce observed runoff for the period 1990 to 1992 with minimal tuning of initial soil moisture content and daily rainfall distribution. The BATS/HYDRO model is then run using VEMAP output as input for two time periods, 1994 to 2003 and 2090 to 2099 and two land use scenarios, current and future. Model results show that changing climate and changing land use will increase the percentage of precipitation that results in surface runoff from 17.1% to 21.4%. This 4.3% increase is partitioned into a 2.5% increase due to climate change and a 1.6% increase due to land use change.     

Hydrological Simulation by SWAT Model with Fixed and Varied Parameterization Approaches Under Land Use Change

Land use and land cover (LULC) change within a watershed is recognized as an important factor affecting hydrological processes and water resources. Modeling the hydrological effects of land-use change is important not only for after-the-fact analyses, but also for understanding and predicting the potential hydrological consequences of existing land-use practices. The main aim of the study is to understand and quantify the hydrological processes in a rapid urbanization region. The SWAT model and the Qinhuai River basin, one of the most rapidly urbanizing regions in China were selected to perform the study. In the study, a varied parameterization strategy was developed by establishing regression equations with selected SWAT parameters as dependent variables and catchment impermeable area as independent variable. The performance of the newly developed varied parameterization approach was compared with the conventional fixed parameterization approach in simulating the hydrological processes under LULC changes. The results showed that the model simulation with varied parameterization approach has a large improvement over the conventional fixed parameterization approach in terms of both long-term water balance and flood events simulations. The proposed modeling approach could provide an essential reference for the study of assessing the impact of LULC changes on hydrology in other regions.     

基于SWAT模型的忠县虾子岭流域地表径流特征浅析

从重庆市忠县地理位置的典型性和敏感性,生态环境的脆弱性,水利设施布设的必要性和虾子岭流域研究前景的优越性出发,借助于SWAT模型,对忠县虾子岭流域地表径流特征进行时空分析,用于确定急需进行水量调控的区域,为区域径流调控体系的布设提供理论依据。研究发现,地表径流量多的东部区域已经布设了较多数量的蓄水工程,流域西部区域应成为未来调蓄水工程布设的重点考虑区域,但工程布设后调蓄水时间的选择不能仅仅依赖地表径流量的多少,而应进一步结合作物需水量的计算,最终确定合理而科学的拦蓄水时间。     

海河水系降水与径流趋势变化及突变分析

随着经济社会的发展,水资源短缺日益突显。以海河流域的海河水系作为研究区域,应用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验方法对降水及径流量时间序列进行趋势变化及突变分析,为研究海河流域水资源变化提供新的参考。     

鄂尔多斯市径流变化及原因分析

采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验及突变诊断方法分析了鄂尔多斯市径流变化情况,并探讨了降水、气温、人类活动等环境因素变化对径流变化的影响。结果表明:近50多a来,鄂尔多斯市径流呈显著减小趋势,且在1993年左右发生明显突变;气候变化对径流减少的贡献率约为29%,其中降水减少占19%、气温升高占10%;人类活动对径流减少的贡献率约为71%,其中水土保持建设、水利工程建设、地下水开采分别占18%、10%和22%。     

基于SWAT模型的盘龙江流域径流模拟

为了给日后的滇池治理和昆明市水资源保护利用提供依据,以昆明市区的盘龙江流域为研究区域,采用SWAT模型对该流域的径流进行模拟研究,通过加载流域的DEM、土地利用、土壤类型等数据到SWAT模型,选定1999—2004年为模型参数率定期,2005—2007年为模型验证期,对松华坝以上流域和以下流域分别进行模拟,并对模拟结果进行比较和评价。结果表明:松华坝以上区间流域的模拟相关系数R2在0.83以上,Ens在0.80以上;松华坝以下区域的模拟相关系数R2在0.70以上,Ens在0.58以上。即该模型对盘龙江流域具有良好的适应性,可以为盘龙江流域在不同土地利用的条件下对流域的水量、水质、泥沙进行模拟预测。     

基于SWAT模型的滦河流域径流模拟

应用SWAT模型对滦河流域进行了天然径流模拟,以承德、三道河子和滦县3个水文站的还原径流量对模型进行了参数率定与模型验证,基于模型模拟结果分析了下垫面变化对径流的影响。结果表明:滦县水文站率定期与验证期月径流模拟值与实测值的相关系数、确定性效率系数均在0.90以上,相对误差控制在5.00%左右,表明模型具有较高的模拟精度;与1985年相比,2000年土地利用的变化主要是林地面积减少与耕地、草地面积增加,导致径流量增加了2.91%,而年内降水量的增加则强化了下垫面变化对径流的影响程度。     

基于ＳＷＡＴ模型的汉江流域径流模拟

为建立可靠的水文水动力耦合模型,首先探讨水文模型在汉江流域的适用效果。以汉江流域汉中水文站以上区域为研究范围,以中国大气同化数据集（ＣＭＡＤＳＶ１．０）为气象驱动,建立分布式水文模型,并以水文站实测日径流资料进行参数的率定及验证。结果表明:模拟结果与实测值吻合较好,日径流模拟在校准期（２０１０年—２０１３年）纳什效率系数和决定系数达到了０．７７和０．７８,在验证期（２０１４年—２０１７年）纳什效率系数和决定系数分别为０．７４和０．７５,表明ＳＷＡＴ模型在该地区有良好的适用性。     

未来气候情景下覆被变化对径流量的影响

以陆浑水库控制流域为研究对象,利用流域DEM、土地利用数据、1987—2001年气候和水文观测数据,在率定SWAT模型参数的基础上,以SCS模型参数的变化来反映覆被变化,分析了未来气候变化情景及覆被变化情景对径流的影响。结果表明:2011—2050年在流域落叶林地面积退化30%情况下径流量将增大7.02%,落叶林地面积增加20%情况下径流量将减少8.48%。     

基于SWAT的乌伦古河流域径流模拟研究

以新疆乌伦古河流域上游为研究区,利用DEM、土地利用、土壤类型和水文气象资料,基于SWAT构建研究区分布式水文模型,探讨了SWAT模型在乌伦古河的适用性。应用LH-OAT法对参数进行敏感性分析,采用手动调参对模型参数进行率定和验证,根据已有的径流资料选用2000年—2005年为模型参数率定期,2006年—2009年为模型的验证期。研究结果表明:实测值与模拟值的趋势一致总体较为接近,率定期和验证期效率系数均大于0.6,相关系数0.8以上,径流平均误差小于15%。总体来看,SWAT模型参数率定之后,能较好的反映了乌伦古河流域的月径流水文过程,在该地区具有一定的适用性。更多还原