基于多智能体的城镇家庭用水量模拟预测分析

提出了基于多智能体的城镇家庭用水量模拟模型(MA-UHWDS),通过构造不同发展情景,对家庭用水量变化趋势及其影响因素进行了分析。以青岛市为实证城市,采用2003—2012年统计资料,计算分析了居民用水边际消费倾向、基本用水需求和不同收入户人均用水量,并对不同情景下2013—2022年各类收入户人均用水量和城镇家庭用水总量进行了定量模拟预测分析。结果表明:2003—2012年中,城镇家庭平均水费支出占总消费支出的比重仅为0.395%,易造成居民节水意识淡薄,最低收入户人均用水量除2008年外均低于基本需水量,而最高收入户平均超过基本需水量14.16 m3,水价改革需综合考虑低收入家庭的支付能力和高收入家庭的过度用水;2022年7类收入户在水价高增长收入低增长情景下的人均用水量与在水价低增长收入高增长情景相比下,分别减少了16.7%、18.4%、18.1%、16.1%、15.0%、17.8%和13.8%,水价和收入会明显影响家庭用水量。MA-UHWDS为区域用水总量调控提供了新的研究思路和工具。     

Thai Rural Domestic Water Consumption: A Case Study of a Village Community With No Organized Water Supply System

ABSTRACT

Thai rural domestic water consumption of 282 households for 59 villages in Amphoe Nong Sua, Pathum Thani Province, Thailand, is examined in this study. The paper describes the pattern of rural domestic water use and evaluates the factors which affect per capita rural water consumption. Stepwise regression analysis was applied to assess the variables which were postulated to be associated with per capita rural water consumption. The variables that were found to be significantly associated with per capita rural water consumption were household size, average household age, level of education, average household income and number of baths per day.     

城镇居民生活用水的需水函数分析和水价节水效果评估

结合北京市统计数据分析表明，城镇居民人均年生活用水量与居民生活用水购买力系数（居民可支配收入与生活用水水价的比值）关系十分显著，本文在此基础上．探讨并建立了城镇居民生活用水的需求函数和水价节水效果的评估方法。实例测算结果表明，北京市城镇居民生活用水购买力系数的边际弹性为0．38．亦即北京市城镇居民生活用水购买力降低1％，城镇居民生活用水量减少0．38％；提高水价具有显著的节水效果，“十五”期间北京市城镇居民用水的水价累计节水量达到了0．9亿m^3，人均年节水量2m^3；现状北京市不同收入人群城镇居民水费支出占可支配收入的比例均小于1．0％，低于国际通行的评判可承受标准值2．5％，表明北京市城镇居民对水价承受能力比较大，水价仍有较大上升空间。     

Urban Household Water Demand in Beijing by 2020: An Agent-Based Model

Beijing is faced with severe water scarcity due to rapid socio-economic development and population expansion, and a guideline for water regulation has been released to control the volume of national water use. To cope with water shortage and meet regulation goal, it has great significance to study the variations of water demand. In this paper, an agent-based model named HWDP is developed for the prediction of urban household water demand in Beijing. The model involves stochastic behaviors and feedbacks caused by two agent roles which are government agent and household agent. The government agent adopts economic and propagandist means to make household agent optimize its water consumption. Additionally, the consumption is also affected by the basic water demand deduced from extended linear expenditure system. The results indicate that the total water demand of urban households in Beijing will increase to 317.5 million cubic meters by 2020, while the water price keeps growing at a low level. However, it would drop to 294.9 million cubic meters with high growth of water price and low increment in per capita disposable income. Finally, some policy recommendations on water regulation are made.     

基于ELES模型的城镇居民生活用水水价支付能力研究——以北京市为例

本文从支付能力的角度,根据计量经济学的需求函数理论,以我国城镇居民消费支出结构数据为基础,提出了应用扩展线性支出系统(ELES)模型,分析城镇居民生活用水水价支付能力。以北京市为例,采用1998～2004年截面数据资料,计算分析了不同时期居民用水需求与水费支出水平、居民用水的边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性以及不同收入户的用水基本需求等,以此定量研究了北京市城镇居民生活用水水价的支付能力。研究结果表明:平均收入水平下,居民对水价具有一定的支付能力,其基本用水需求均能得到满足;可支配收入增长对居民用水需求的影响不大;北京市生活用水水价还有上调的空间,但低收入户的水价支付能力有限,是重点考虑的对象。     

Water Consumption in the Kitchen – A Case Study in Four European Countries

As there is a limited availability of information on the domestic water consumption through kitchen taps, data collected in a study on dishwashing habits in four European countries has been analysed to gather common habits in the water end-use of households. This paper provides empirical data based on water consumption measurements in 81 households. With the help of a simultaneous webcam observation of the kitchen sink, it was possible to assign the metered consumption data to a specific water use, such as cleaning, drinking or cooking. Water end-use has been analysed with this approach at a very deep level. The study shows that there are, in some measure, large country-specific differences in diurnal water use, as well as in the composition of kitchen activities. Furthermore, the research findings indicate that small households use much more water per person and day than bigger households. This is rather important as demographic shifts are causing a decreased average household size - particularly in urban areas - and, therewith, a growing demand. Water-saving measures at the household and individual level should meet this trend. This paper, therefore, also provides information on to what extent particular kitchen tasks are influential for water consumption in the kitchen, respectively, which activities are important to concentrate on for consumer advice regarding water conservation.     

Factors Influencing Per Capita Water Consumption In Urban Areas Of Developing Countries And Their Implications For Management,With Special Reference To The Khartoum Metropolitan Area

ABSRTACT

The fast growing population in Third World countries and the limited physical resources in rural areas have led to the dramatic expansion of the urban areas of these countries. It is now recognized that when planning for the development of these areas, early consideration must be given to the difficulties and cost of providing potable water equitably to all users. Detailed studies are necessary for particular situations so as to provide a basis for better management practices.

Khartoum, a growing urban area in Sudan, has been chosen as a case study. A proposed framework and technique of analysis is shown. Factors influencingper capita consumption are correlated and mathematical models have been generated for the two distinct classifictions of consumers: (1) consumers with piped supply and (2) consumers obtaining water from water vendors or from standpipes (squatter settlements).

The most significant factors affecting the consumption appear in the fitted equations. Of these factors, the number of occupants in the household influences the per capita consumption but at a decreasing rate. Price has a significant impact on demand: price elasticities of about -0.60 and -0.78 are obtained for households with piped connections and squatter areas respectively. Water utility authorities can use price as a tool to ration or discourage water consumption in the piped connection households and to increase the rate of consumption in the squatter areas.     

南水北调受水区生活用水影响因素与节水潜力

为持续推进水资源节约工作,保障南水北调受水区经济社会可持续发展,开展居民用水习惯问卷调查,分析 南水北调东线和中线受水区各省（直辖市）居民家庭用水现状及差异特点,识别生活用水的主要影响因素,设计节 水情景模拟家庭节水潜力。结果表明,受水区居民用水习惯呈现较明显的地域性差异,其中：天津市和河北省居 民整体节水意识较高,河南省和山东省现状人均日用水量比北京市、安徽省和江苏省低 12%;从用水行为上看,家 庭洗浴日均用水量浮动范围达 30%,是造成用水差异的主要环节。节水情景模拟结果显示,通过进一步提高居民 节水意识、替换高等级节水器具、增强家庭内部废水循环利用等措施,受水区居民人均日用水量可下降 12%～29%。根据受水区各省 (直辖市) 针对其生活用水特点,提出了进一步开展节水器具普及工作、完善节水管 理体制机制、提升居民节水意识以及合理利用废水等节水建议,因地制宜持续推进节水工作。     

Determinants of Water Connection Type and Ownership of Water-Using Appliances in Ireland

Developing optimal policies on management of water resources, investment in relevant infrastructure and the protection of the environment requires data on the current and likely future demand for water services. In jurisdictions without water metering, information on the factors influencing demand tends to be limited. Microdata from household surveys can provide some relevant information. Domestic water demand is influenced both by the number of households and their characteristics, in particular the extent to which they employ water-using appliances. This paper focuses on domestic ownership of water-using appliances in the Republic of Ireland, a country where rapid economic and demographic change have put pressure on water and sewerage infrastructure but where there is little domestic metering. Using a large household micro-dataset, we use regression analysis to examine the determinants of the water and sewage mains connection status of Irish homes and to identify the characteristics of households that are associated with having larger or smaller numbers of appliances. Our empirical results suggest that Ireland will have a rising share of mains water and sewerage connections in the future. Household income, house price, dwelling types other than ‘detached’, younger dwellings, and urban location are all positively associated with having a mains connection. The number of types of water-using appliance in a household is positively associated with income, house price, number of residents, owner-occupation, having children (or, to a lesser extent, multiple people) in the household, having a detached house, being located in a rural area and living in a dwelling built after 1997.     

The Economics of Household Demand for Water: The Case of Kandy Municipality,Sri Lanka

This study estimates the demand for domestic water in a fast-growing city of a developing country. Monthly data for 40 randomly selected households for a six-year period were used for the estimation. There were three price hikes during the study period, which provided adequate variation in the prices for an econometric estimation. A log-log model was selected as a proper specification for the demand function. Marginal price, difference price, income, and household size were used as the independent variables. After correcting the data for auto-correlation and heteroscedasticity, the final model was estimated. Results show all the expected signs with statistical significance. Price elasticity (marginal) and income elasticity for water in the study area are estimated to be - 0.34 and 0.08, respectively. Thus, our findings confirm the previous findings that water is neither price- nor income-elastic. Given these responses, a price hike may not help conserve water in the study area. However, very low price responsiveness can be used to increase water revenues of the municipality.     

Calculating Price Elasticity of Water Demand Using Gene Expression Programming Based on Economic,Social and Meteorological Variables

Determining the changing rate of water consumption through altering parameters such as water tariffs can help water companies select appropriate water policies. This paper is intended to find the proper relation between the water price elasticity of demand and some social, economic and climatic variables that are released annually by international organizations like the United Nations Development Program and the World Bank. By using genetic algorithm, different combinations of water price elasticity of demand and variables like gross domestic product, per capita gross domestic product, gross national income, precipitation, human development index, average temperature and household size have been analyzed. It was found that the absolute price elasticity of water demand has positive relationships with precipitation and price of water. It has also been found that the gross national income, average percent of consumers who have secondary education and human development index have a negative relation with the absolute price elasticity of water demand.

     

Urban Sustainability Incentives for Residential Water Conservation: Adoption of Multiple High Efficiency Appliances

Effects of multiple types of water use efficiency appliances on long term water savings and water use trend shifts were analyzed. The study group included senior and low income families in the urban areas of Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. The participants in the study group experienced continuous and significant water savings within 3 years of the implementation of the water conservation incentives. Water savings were observed at approximately 200 l per household per day, which is about 31 % reduction in household water demand in comparison to the average residential water demand within the County. The water use profile of participants showed noticeable shifts over time in water demand frequency curves toward lower water consumption rates. The cost-saving analysis showed that adoption of multiple water efficiency appliances contributed to the highest annual monetary savings (i.e., high water savings and moderate product costs). Future conservation program planning efforts should take both water savings and product cost into account in order to achieve the greatest benefits.     

RBF神经网络在阿拉尔垦区需水预测中的应用

利用RBF神经网络,建立了阿拉尔垦区需水量预测模型。选取农业用水灌溉定额、工业用水重复利用率、城镇生活人均日需水量、农村生活人均日需水量作为模型输入,农业、工业、城镇生活、农村生活需水量作为输出。将2001—2007年用水量数据作为训练样本,用2008—2009年用水量数据对模型进行检验。在农业、工业、城镇生活、农村生活4类需水量中,2009年工业需水量预测的相对误差最大,为-16.24%,总需水量的最大误差仅为1.80%,取得了较满意的结果,表明RBF神经网络模型用于该区需水量预测是可行的。     

ARIMA模型在人均生活用水量预测中的应用

随着生活用水量需求的日益增加,对于人均生活用水量的合理预测成为城市给水规划的关键。以上海市1949-2003年的人均生活用水量统计资料为依据,利用SPSS11．5软件的ARIMA模型功能对上海市短期人均生活用水量进行预测。该模型的缺点是只能对人均生活用水量数据做短期预测,对于长期预测,由于不确定性的增加,结果的偏差将有所增加。     

包头市市区居民生活用水量预测分析

用水量预测对区域水资源规划、利用和管理提供重要依据.运用灰色关联度分析法分析包头市市区居民生活用水量影响因素的基础上,分别建立多元线性回归模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型及灰色线性组合模型对该地区2009年和2010年的生活用水量进行预测分析,同时比较了三个模型的预测精度.结果表明:城市居民生活用水量与城市用水人口、人均居住面积和水价的关联度较高;2009年和2010年用水量的预测采用组合灰色模型精度最高,相对误差分别为13.6％％和6.5％,均方根相对误差为10.7％.组合预测模型的预测精度明显优于单一模型,使结果更加准确、合理,符合实际情况.     

上海市全社会需电量预测分析

以上海市人均GDP为基础,采用上海市1978—2002年的历史资料,建立了上海市人均需电量与人均GDP的回归模型;利用这一回归模型对上海市2020年前的主要年份全社会需电量进行了预测和分析,结果表明这一回归模型基本上能反映上海市不同经济发展阶段的用电水平。     

辽河流域主要城市供水水源研究

辽河流域水资源短缺,人均水资源量很低,而中部城市群用水量却很大,由于地表水不足,许多城市的地下水超采现象严重,本文立足于地下水保护,依据城市的发展规模和用水要求,通过深入的分析研究,梳理和明确了主要城市未来的供水水源.     

西安城市生活需水量预测

根据西安市过去若干年生活用水量的统计资料，分别采用一元线性回归、生长曲线、GM（1，1）灰色系统模型和人均综合生活用水定额法对西安2010年、2015年城市生活需水量进行预测，并对各种方法的预测结果进行分析比较，认为生长曲线模型的预测结果比较合理，确定了西安2010年、2015年城市生活需水量范围。     

Adaptation of urban water supply infrastructure to impacts from climate and socioeconomic changes: The case of Hamilton,New Zealand

While the relations between climate variables and sectoral water demand have been well established in the literature, few studies have attempted to quantify changes in urban water usage with climate change. Concentrating on the city of Hamilton, New Zealand, we investigate possible water use and infrastructure needs for a range of climate and population projections. We find that water demand (at the monthly aggregate level) is largely driven by changes in population, and not significantly affected by changes in climate. However, as population increases, the effect of climate variables on per capita consumption will be magnified. Monthly aggregate changes may further mask potenially significant short-term shortages. In several scenarios, water supply shortages in 2030 occur with a 30--40% probability, suggesting needs for long-term capacity expansion or aggressive demand side management, rather than implementation of short-term management of water demand.     

Domestic Water Consumption under Intermittent and Continuous Modes of Water Supply

Although an extensive literature emphasizes the disadvantages of intermittent water supply, it remains prevalent in rural areas of developing countries. Understanding the effects of water supply time restrictions on domestic water use activities and patterns, especially for hygienic purposes, is important for the elaboration of the water supply. We studied the influence of intermittent and continuous water supply on water consumption and related activities in villages in the central region of the Wei River basin, China. Data were collected from a survey of 225 households in the sampled villages. Compared with a continuous water supply of 24 h d^?1 (hours per day), adopting an intermittent water supply can reduce domestic water consumption. However, it presents risks in terms of hygiene behavior, particularly the frequency of face, hands, and feet washing, as well as water sharing among family members. Outdoor water consumption is more affected than indoor water consumption under slight supply restriction (≥6 and?<?24 h d^?1), whereas indoor water use is most affected under moderate supply restriction (>1.5 and?<?6 h d^?1). Villages with high supply restriction (≤1.5 h d^?1) meet only the minimum basic requirements for domestic use, 33.6–34.7 L c^?1 d^?1 (liters per capita per day). We conclude that the determination of the daily water delivery duration for intermittent water supply in rural communities of developing countries should give greater consideration to differences in water use activities and patterns under the water supply time restrictions.