Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research

Water security is an important component of regional security and sustainable development and it significantly affects regional development strategies. Flood security, water resource security, and water environment security are the basic elements of a water security system. These elements exhibit dynamic and complex characteristics. System dynamics (SD) is a qualitative and quantitative simulation and analysis method for system integration. SD is applicable to complex system research and has achieved significant results in water security system research. This study initially collected literature on water security research and application in recent years, and then verified the progress and deficiencies in current research. Our research on water security focuses on managing and predicating a single subsystem. Our research on flood control and disaster mitigation focuses on managing and forecasting floods. Our research on water resource security focuses on water resource management, carrying capacity, and planning, as well as on sustainable water utilization. Finally, our research on water environment security includes water quality management, water pollution control, early warning systems, and water ecology. The SD method can properly solve the complicated relations in a water security system but exhibits limitations in the following aspects: research on large systems; influence of social environment changes; uncertainties in water security; and the methods, means, and influence of natural environment changes on water security.     

跨行政区河流水环境生态补偿方法研究

现行的水环境区域补偿方案存在补偿要素和范围不全面、补偿标准制定不合理及不到位、滞后于经济社会和生态环境的动态变化等不足。针对以上问题,以江苏省常熟市为研究对象,对现行的水环境区域补偿办法进行改进,结合区域经济发展与水环境管理要求,以行政区划为基本单元,根据断面水质浓度、区域用水与排污量等考核指标,提出了综合跨界断面水质类别、过量用水与超标排污等多要素的动态化阶梯水环境生态补偿测算方法。上述方法适用于跨区域之间及区域内,旨在解决现行补偿方案中存在的问题,使补偿标准更为科学合理,从而提升水环境治理水平和效果,促进水生态环境可持续发展。     

灰色聚类法在水质评价中的应用

灰色聚类综合评价方法能否成功应用主要取决于白化权函数的选取与指标权重的确定。目前灰色聚类评估确定主要分为指标变权聚类和指标定权聚类,两种方法在水质评价、空气质量评价、环境评价等各方面取得了一定的应用效果。目前对于权重的选取基本采用的是静态权重,对于随时间变化的监测序列,这样的权重选择有其不当之处,因此本文主要针对权重问题,采用投影寻踪方法计算得到静态权重,在此基础上得到基于均值的变异程度的动态权重,并将其应用于高邮湖水质评价之中。实例表明,该方法的评判结果更符合当地的水质实际情况。     

Common pool water resources management considering a regulator interference: A game theory approach to derive managerial policies for Urmia lake,Iran

An increased need for water, combined with a scarcity of water resources, has resulted in serious challenges regarding water resource management. Those issues have always been a major concern of most research regarding the management and operation of water resources. Various qualitative and quantitative methods, Game Theory (GT) being an example, have been proposed for managing common pool water resources. This study adopts GT to address a case of common pool water resource management, including consideration of the interference of a regulator. Urmia lake in north‐western Iran was chosen as an illustration of a common source of water shared between two provinces acting as littoral stakeholders to the lake. Due to a non‐cooperative behaviour of the stakeholders, the lake is most likely to dry up. To change the game situation, a regulator was inserted into the game as a third player. The game among players is investigated in terms of two static and dynamic game methods. Two strategies are defined for each player. The equilibrium point will be achieved according to the strategies adopted by the players. For static games, a low‐level equilibrium under non‐cooperation conditions is obtained. Dynamic games among players are more likely to occur, rather than static games. The equilibrium of high‐level productivity will be obtained under cooperative conditions among the players.     

Visualizing relationships between hydrology,climate, and water level fluctuations on Earth's largest system of lakes

Understanding drivers behind monthly, annual, and decadal water level fluctuations on the North American Great Lakes is a high priority for regional research and water resource management planning. The need for improved understanding of these relationships is underscored by a series of recent unprecedented extreme water level patterns, including (but not limited to) record low water levels on Lakes Michigan and Huron in December 2012 and January 2013. To address this need, we developed the Great Lakes Hydro-Climate Dashboard (GLHCD), a dynamic flash-based web interface that builds upon the previously-released Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard (GLWLD). In addition to including water level data and projections from the GLWLD, the GLHCD presents a range of hydrological and climatological data through an improved graphical user interface specifically designed to manage, and display simultaneously, a variety of data time series from different sources. By serving as a common portal to critical regional hydro-climate and water level data, the GLHCD helps visualize and explain lake level phenomena including water level declines across all of the Great Lakes in the early 1960s and their relationship to changes in regional precipitation, as well as the abrupt water level declines in the late 1990s and their relationship to remarkable changes in over-lake evaporation. By providing insight into these, and other important regional hydro-climate events, the GLHCD helps practitioners, researchers, and the general public improve their understanding of the drivers behind Great Lakes water levels, and to employ that understanding in prudent water resource management planning.     

黄河流域城市群水资源利用效率评估及驱动因子分析

为客观评价黄河流域城市群水资源利用效率,分析水资源利用效率差异的原因,以黄河流域7大城市群为研究对象,1989—2018年48个大中型城市GDP、人口、地区用水量等为统计指标,采用super-SBM模型评估黄河流域城市群静态水资源利用效率,结合Malmquist全要素生产率指数对水资源利用效率进行动态分解,选用Tobi...     

国内外城市雨洪管理指标体系对比及启示EI北大核心CSCD

针对当前我国海绵城市控制指标体系存在的问题,在系统分析代表性发达国家城市雨洪管理指标体系的基础上,对比了国内外城市雨洪管理指标体系的异同,总结了发达国家指标体系对我国的借鉴意义。我国与发达国家在项目自身设计指标以及衡量建设效果的控制指标方面均存在一定差异,今后可考虑在我国雨洪管理指标体系中新增入渗控制指标、洪水控制指标、舒适性指标和生态指标,以完善现有海绵城市控制指标体系;应充分结合各地水质条件、气候条件和经济发展水平,系统研究制定控制指标,同时应加强部门间的沟通与磋商机制建设,确保指标的实施效果。     

我国生态需水研究体系及关键研究命题初探

本文从生态系统水平衡和生物水分生理的角度,初步分析了不同类型生态系统生态需水核算的关键环节,并构建了竞争用水条件下我国生态需水研究的基本体系。结合国内外相关研究的新进展,剖析了我国生态需水研究的关键命题。结果表明,生态需水计算的关键是要核算维持生产者的正常生命活动和非生物环境分别向外界释放的水量,不同类型的生态系统对核算的侧重点也不相同。在竞争性用水条件下,我国生态需水研究,需要在系统识别水分—生态耦合作用机制和定量确立区域动态生态目标的基础上,充分考虑水分生态效益率,合理确定生态需水量。在生态与环境系统及国民经济系统之间,对区域可配置的水资源量进行合理配置,并提出了区域生态需水的风险管理方案。     

环境流量研究的前沿问题与挑战

为了应对水文、气候和生态系统变化背景下环境流量研究的新挑战,梳理了国内外环境流量研究成果,指出目前环境流量研究主要存在5个方面的不足,也是该研究目前的前沿问题与挑战:①全球环境变化与非稳定性;②生态水文过程的动态模拟,重点是水文情势静态评价向动态特征评价研究的转变;③生态水文关系的时空特性,重点是生态系统状态、过程变量和物种特征的耦合研究,环境流量的生态特征和时空尺度研究;④环境流量评估的关键指标;⑤环境流量预测的生态学延展。为解决这些问题,提出了人类世背景下环境流量研究的发展方向,认为未来环境流量研究应加强生态目标的动态适应性管理,加强局域到区域的生态学基础研究,完善基于过程的生态水文响应机理,强化环境流量分阶段实施的非水文指标耦合,加强适应性管理方式下的环境流量评估和实践,以保障适应性管理框架下的生态完整性。     

An Extension of the Sustainability Index Definition in Water Resources Planning and Management

The sustainability index (SI) is a relatively new concept for measuring the performance of water resource systems over long time periods. Its definition is aimed at providing an indication of the integral behaviour of the system with regards to possible undesired consequences if misbalance of available and required waters occurs. SI is initially defined as a product and later reformulated as a geometric mean of performance indicators: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. As an extension of a recently published methodology to compute and use SI, in this paper we propose introducing two more indicators of system performance: (1) reliability of annual firm (safe) water as a system yield and (2) deviation of reservoir levels from corresponding rule curves. The last indicator is of particular importance if there are multi-purpose reservoirs in the system because reservoirs are the most important and sensitive regulators of the water regime within the system. We also propose a framework for assessing system performance in a systematic manner to compute SI at various locations within the system if different operating strategies are applied and, finally, how to evaluate strategies according to the resulting SI by using multi-criteria methods. A case study example from Serbia is used to illustrate the results of measuring sustainability under alternative operating scenarios for a system with three reservoirs and two diversion structures.     

Water Resources Sustainability Indicator: Application of the Watershed Characteristics Approach

The quantification of the renewable flux (i.e. sustainable limit) of the hydrologic system is the prerequisite for transitioning from unsustainable to sustainable water resources management. The application of the Watershed Characteristics Approach to estimate the renewable flux of the hydrologic system was demonstrated using Minnesota’s (USA) Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA). The methodology quantified the relationships between landscape properties and water balance characteristics, resulting in the development of functioning hierarchical hydrogeological units with corresponding recharge rates. This renewable flux is a key quantitative characteristic for the assessment of a sustainability indicator. The key indicator of sustainable water use is the ratio of the renewable capacity of the hydrologic system to the water use by humans and the environment. By incorporating water use estimates for the TCMA relative to the calculated recharge rates, sustainability indicators for groundwater and total flux were calculated for the metropolitan area. As far back as the 1890s, declines in TCMA groundwater levels have been observed, which correspond to the unsustainable groundwater extraction estimates identified in the results of this study. The non-stationary characteristics of urban watersheds influenced by ongoing land use/land cover changes as illustrated in this paper, emphasizes the need for conservative hydrologic planning to achieve sustainable water management. This approach can also be applied to other metropolitan areas as a hydrologic tool for decision-makers to design sustainable water policy and prevent the over-extraction of the water flowing through the hydrologic system.     

基于洛伦兹曲线的甘肃省用水结构分析

辨析区域用水结构特征,对于优化区域水资源配置、社会经济与生态环境协同发展具有重要意义.利用洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数、洛伦兹不对称系数等方法,对甘肃省各区域近10 a来用水结构时空分布特征、均衡差异性、主要用水指标(万元GDP用水量、万元工业增加值用水量、人均综合用水量和净灌溉用水量)进行研究,并对研究结果进行定量分析.结果...     

Toward Mapping Gridded Drought Indices to Evaluate Local Drought in a Rapidly Changing Global Environment

Uncertain future climate, recent persistent droughts, and subsequent water conflicts increasingly threaten the sustainability of regional water resources in the United States. Climate change and ongoing water disputes brought about by changes in water availability and timing emphasize the need for decision makers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate losses. Developing a drought management system equipped with advanced visualization settings is critical to lay out drought evolvement at local scales, yet an effort has not been made to evaluate how different spatial discretization can represent local drought as opposed to conventional drought monitoring. Gridded drought indices, including the standardized precipitation index (SPI), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and Hydrologic drought index (HDI) at high-resolution spatial (12 km by 12 km) scales are demonstrated to provide useful insights to evaluate local drought possibly driven by a rapidly changing global environment. A new method for duration factors in PDSI is also discussed to better represent drought conditions over time and space.     

Disentangling Water Usage in the European Union: A Decomposition Analysis

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) defines common objectives for water resources throughout the European Union (EU). Given this general approach to water preservation and water policy, the objective of this paper is to analyse whether common patterns of water consumption exist within Europe. In particular, our study uses two methods to reveal the reasons behind sectoral water use in all EU countries. The first method is based on an accounting indicator that calculates the water intensity of an economy as the sum of sectoral water intensities. The second method is a subsystem input-output model that divides total water use into different income channels within the production system. The application uses data for the years 2005 and 2009 on water consumption in the production system of the 27 countries of the EU. From our analysis it emerges that EU countries are characterized by very different patterns of water consumption. In particular water consumption by the agriculture sector is extremely high in Central/Eastern Europe, relative to the rest of Europe. In most countries, the water used by the fuel, power and water sector is consumed to satisfy domestic final demand. However, our analysis shows that for some countries exports from this sector are an important driver of water consumption. Focusing on the agricultural sector, the decomposition analysis suggests that water usage in Mediterranean countries is mainly driven by final demand for, and exports of, agricultural products. In Central/Eastern Europe domestic final demand is the main driver of water consumption, but in this region the proportion of water use driven by demand for exports is increasing over time. Given these heterogeneous water consumption patterns, our analysis suggests that Mediterranean and Central/Eastern European countries should adopt specific water policies in order to achieve efficient levels of water consumption in the European Union.     

基于WebGIS的洪泽湖地区动态洪涝管理信息系统

洪泽湖承泄淮河上中游15.8万km²的洪水,周边地区地形以平原洼地为主,常受洪涝灾害影响。为了降低区域洪涝风险、减少洪灾损失,针对外河洪水、区域洪水及暴雨内涝3类风险源构建了洪水演进模型,在此基础上基于WebGIS开发了B/S结构的动态洪涝管理信息系统,采用动态图层技术生成了动态洪水风险图。实现了对规划与模拟工况下的雨水情信息、静态与动态洪水风险信息和受灾损失信息的综合管理以及二维洪水演进过程的动态显示,有助于加强区域洪涝管控与制定避险转移方案。     

基于DPSIR模型的深圳市水资源承载能力评价指标体系

本文采用驱动力-压力-状态-影响-反应模型(Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response,简称DPSIR模型),提出了一个广义的水资源承载能力综合评价指标体系,并提出了具体确定水资源承载能力综合评价指标的7个原则,即符合水资源可持续利用的原则、本地化原则、预警性原则、反映评价目的原则、指标数量适度原则、适于量化原则和相对指标原则。根据深圳市水资源情势及社会经济发展状况,提出了深圳市水资源承载能力综合评价的9个评价指标,包括：人均GDP、万元GDP综合耗水率、城镇居民人均月生活用水量、废污水排放率、水资源开发利用率、人均水资源可利用量、水质优良率、植被覆盖率和水资源综合管理效率。应用该指标体系,采用模糊综合评判方法对深圳市2002年水资源承载能力现状评价的结果与实际情况一致。     

区域水土资源复合系统风险分析研究初探

区域水土资源复合系统风险已经成为制约水土资源供需和生态环境发展的关键因素,对其进行准确的分析与评价,可以为区域水土资源的可持续利用和相关研究人员的评价分析提供科学的决策依据。对区域水土资源复合系统风险的计算模型和指标体系的研究进展进行了综合分析,探讨了目前研究中存在的主要问题和今后的研究方向,为区域水土资源复合系统风险的进一步研究提供参考。     

现代灌溉水管理发展理念及改善策略研究综述

对现代灌溉水管理发展理念和改善策略的研究进展与趋势进行综述,探讨了有关的研究重点与内容.现有成果表明,研究探索诸如考虑农田排水或灌溉回归水再利用的灌溉效率、灌溉经济社会净收益极大化的经济效率以及灌溉用水尺度的水分生产率等灌溉水管理发展理念及其改善策略,对加强灌溉水管理、提高农业用水效率、确保食物安全、减少环境负效应、增加农业产出效益具有十分重要的意义和作用.鉴于灌溉效率、经济效率、水分生产率等指标具有明显的尺度效应,应在研究建立相应于各评价指标的尺度化特定表达式基础上,探索不同尺度特定表达式间可能存在的定量转换关系,实现相同评价指标下的尺度数量转换,为评价灌溉用水尺度效用、采用适宜于不同用水尺度的灌溉水管理策略提供科学的分析手段与定量方法.     

中欧水资源交流平台

中欧水资源交流平台将成为中国-欧盟流域管理项目取得的主要成果之一,旨在2012年7月中国-欧盟流域管理项目期满后,保持中国与欧盟、欧盟成员国与欧洲其他相关国家之间在水资源政策、管理、研究及技术方面的对话交流。中欧水资源交流平台将于2012年3月在法国马赛召开的第六届世界水资源论坛上正式启动。     

长株潭区域河流幸福度等级评价研究

为科学评价区域河流幸福度等级,从防洪保安全、优质水资源、健康水生态、宜居水环境、先进水文化、绿色水产业和文明水管护7个方面选取21个指标构建区域河流幸福度等级评价体系并建立评价模型。通过云模型、熵权法确定指标的主、客观权重,利用逼近理想解排序法和灰色关联度分析组合形成改进灰色TOPSIS模型,计算多个指标和研究对象的综合贴近度,判断所属幸福度等级。采用该模型对长株潭及周边7个城市的典型河流进行幸福度等级评价。结果表明：各地区河流幸福度仍有较大差距,部分指标反映的问题具有普遍性,与其实际情况相符,表明所建立的评价模型具有可行性。评价结果及建议对长株潭区域的幸福河创建工作具有指导意义。