Streamflow Simulation by SWAT Using Different Precipitation Sources in Large Arid Basins with Scarce Raingauges

Streamflow from the mountains is the main source of water for the lower plain in arid regions. Accurate simulation of streamflow is of great importance to the arid ecosystem. However, many large arid drainage basins in northwestern China have low density of precipitation stations, which makes the streamflow modeling and prediction very difficult. Based on raingauge data and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data combined with raingauge data, different approaches were explored for spatializing precipitation in large area with scarce raingauges. Spatialized precipitation was then input into Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrological model, to simulate streamflow. Results from a case study in the Manas river basin showed that simulated hydrographs using both the approaches are able to reproduce the watershed hydrological behavior. Moreover, statistical assessment indicated that hydrological model driven by the spatialized precipitation based on radar combined with raingauge data performed better than that based on gauge data. Radar precipitation estimator can provide a practical data source for hydrological modeling at a basin scale where the raingauge network is sparse.     

Trends of Annual Natural Runoff in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

A series of annual natural runoff, recorded at eight hydrological stations in the Yellow River basin (YRB) and distributed at the main channel and two sub-basins (Weihe basin and Fenhe basin) are studied during the period from 1951 to 1998. The trends and the beginning points (or abrupt changes) of these series are detected with Mann-Kendall test (M-K test) and its progressive application. The results show that there are similar trends for different stations. The annual natural runoff series, except for stations of Lanzhou, Hekouzhen, and Longmen, have a downward tendency at some stations whose beginning points of the trend or abrupt changes occurred in the early or mid 1990s. However, their initial years of decrease are different. The decreasing trend of runoff has led to drying-up in lower reaches of the YRB, a water resources scarcity crisis, and a deterioration of the ecosystem. The reasons for the trends have been analyzed in this paper. The trends of precipitation in the corresponding regions are similar to those of annual natural runoff. It is an important aspect for runoff decrease. In addition, human activities have changed the hydrological cycle and lead to a reduction in runoff to a certain degree. Finally, two countermeasures for the runoff decrease are put forward. One is to develop water savings in irrigation regions, and the other is to plan South-to-North water transfer projects for the YRB. However, the conflict between supply and demand will still exist for a long time because of the water scarcity in the future.     

Approach for Estimating Available Consumable Water for Human Activities in a River Basin

Water is vital for economic development and environmental sustainability in arid and semi-arid basins. Management of water resource requires good understanding of available water for human consumption. Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the hydrological cycle and represents the amount of water lost to the atmosphere in a basin. This study proposes a new approach to estimate available consumable water for human activities (ACW) in a basin based on precipitation, natural ET, and uncontrollable outflow, thus capping water use for human consumption in a basin. The ACW is illustrated for the Hai Basin in North China, where the average ACW from 2001 to 2012 for the entire basin is estimated at 31.97?×?10⁹m³ yr.^?1, varying between 18.61?×?10⁹m³yr^?1 in 2002 and 42.60?×?10⁹m³yr^?1 in 2003. A water balance analysis for the basin indicates that the aquifer water depletion in Hai Basin for 2001–2012 is 5.23?×?10⁹m³yr^?1. Compared to existing water resources assessment, ACW provides an easier approach to water management planning as no hydrological data are required, only data on precipitation and ET, supported by landcover data.     

Evapotranspiration from a Mixed Deciduous Forest Ecosystem

The objectives of this paper were to determine evapotranspiration (ET) from an oak-beech dominated forest ecosystem in Belgrad Forest near Istanbul, Turkey by using catchment water balance method and compare it with potential evapotranspiration (PET) computed by using Thornthwaite method. Data, in this study, were derived from a long-term hydrological research conducted in Belgrad Forest. Long-term stream flow measurements (1979–1995) were conducted with concrete sharp-crested V-notch weirs instrumented with automatic water level recorders in two close experimental watersheds. ET values of the watersheds were determined by using water balance equation. Average annual ET values from the old growth oak-beech forest ecosystem during the monitoring period of 17 years were around 833.20 mm for W-I and 752.07 mm for W-IV whereas PET estimated according to Thornthwaite method was found to be 726.14 mm. In other words, 79.68%, and 71.93% of mean annual precipitation evaporated from W-I and W-IV, respectively while 69.45% of precipitation evaporated according to Thornthwaite method. PET estimated with Thornthwaite method differed significantly only from W-I whereas W-I and W-IV had similar ET values.     

气候变化情景下黄河天然径流预测研究

1961—2000年黄河天然径流量呈减小趋势,且径流变化与降水量变化过程基本一致。选用IPCC提出的A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案,并采用北京大学在黄河流域未来气候情景研究中的降尺度成果,以黄河流域未来气候情景模式和预测成果为基础,建立黄河水量平衡模型,预测黄河主要断面的未来天然径流量并分析其时空变化。结果表明:黄河径流量2050年将减少29.3亿～61.1亿m3,2100年将减少42.2亿～71.2亿m3;从空间分布来看,上游兰州以上主要产水区的降水量、径流量有较大幅度减小,其他区域产流量有所增加;从径流年内分配来看,冬季、春季略有增加或基本不变,夏季、秋季减少明显。     

Estimations of Evapotranspiration and Water Balance with Uncertainty over the Yukon River Basin

In this study, the revised Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith model (RS-PM) was used to scale up evapotranspiration (ET) over the entire Yukon River Basin (YRB) from three eddy covariance (EC) towers covering major vegetation types. We determined model parameters and uncertainty using a Bayesian-based method in the three EC sites. The 95 % confidence interval for the aggregate ecosystem ET ranged from 233 to 396 mm yr⁻¹ with an average of 319 mm yr⁻¹. The mean difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (W) was 171 mm yr⁻¹ with a 95 % confidence interval of 94–257 mm yr⁻¹. The YRB region showed a slight increasing trend in annual precipitation for the 1982–2009 time period, while ET showed a significant increasing trend of 6.6 mm decade⁻¹. As a whole, annual W showed a drying trend over YRB region.     

Effect of Air Temperature on Historical Trend of Long-Term Droughts in Different Climates of Iran

Effective monitoring of drought plays an important role in water resources planning and management, especially under global warming effect. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of air temperature on historical long-term droughts in regions with diverse climates in Iran. To this end, monthly air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) data were gathered from 15 longest record meteorological stations in Iran covering the period 1951–2014. Long-term meteorological droughts behavior was quantified using two different drought indices, i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Linear and non-linear trends in T, P, SPI and SPEI were evaluated using non-parametric and parametric statistical approaches such as non-modified and modified Mann-Kendall Test, Theil-Sen approach, and simple regression. The results indicated that the significant trends for temperature are approximately all increasing (0.2 °C to 0.5 °C per decade), and for precipitation are mostly decreasing (?7.2 mm to ?14.8 mm per decade). It was also indicated that long-term drought intensities monitored by the SPI and SPEI have had significant downward trend (drought intensification with time) at most stations of interest. The observed trends in the SPI series can be worsen if air temperature (in addition to precipitation) participates in drought monitoring as SPEI. In arid and extra arid climates, it was observed that temperature has strong effects on historical drought characteristics when comparing the SPI and SPEI series. Due to the determinative role of temperature in mostly dry regions like Iran, the study suggests using the SPEI rather than SPI for more effective monitoring of droughts.     

和田河流域耗水现状分析

和田河流域位于干旱内陆区,降雨稀少,蒸发剧烈,水量散耗是该地区水份运动的主要形式。本文采用和田绿洲散耗型水文模型,对流域耗水现状进行综合分析。分别从河流、水库、地下水、绿洲灌区的耗水水平,流域耗水的年内分配,社会经济与自然生态系统耗水比例等方面体现耗水现状,为和田河流域今后的水土资源合理配置与管理提供参考。     

Identification of Streamflow Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Wei River Basin,China

In this study, the calibration and validation period with stable underlying surface conditions was determined by using a statistically significant change point of the annual streamflow in several catchments of the Wei River basin (WRB). The effects of climate changes and human activities on streamflow were estimated by using the sensitivity-based method and the dynamic water balance model, respectively. The contributions of climate effects and human activities effects on streamflow were also investigated. The results showed that almost all the catchments exhibited significant decreasing trend of streamflow in the early 1990s. The streamflow was more sensitive to changes in precipitation than changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET). Effects of climate due to changes in precipitation and PET are weak in Linjiacun, Weijiabao and Xianyang catchments, while it is strong in the catchments controlled by other hydrological stations, accounting for more than 40 % of streamflow reduction. Effects of human activities on streamflow in Linjiacun, Weijiabao, Xianyang and Zhangjiashan catchments accounted for more than 50 % of the streamflow reduction. The study provides scientific foundation to understand the causes of water resources scarcity and useful information for the planning and management of water resources in the ecological fragile arid area.     

Transformation Technique for Water Table Estimation in a 2-D Aquifer with Inclined Base Subjected to Variable ET

An analytical solution for two-dimensional water table variation in an aquifer basin with inclined impermeable base has been proposed incorporating the effect of depth-dependent evapotranspiration (ET) from land surface. The proposed analytical solution has been obtained by devising a sound mathematical transformation, which transforms a complex partial differential equation into the simplest form. The results obtained from the proposed solution are in good agreement with the already existing mathematical solutions. The results of the proposed solution have been illustrated to study the variation of water table in the 2-D aquifer. Since the water table profiles are obtained lower by consideration of ET, the solution will result in wider drain spacing and, thus, economy in the drainage design. The proposed analytical solution can be used as an important tool for reliable prediction of water table variation in the salinity affected croplands of arid and semi-arid regions where the ET rate is very high.     

The Correlation Between Statistically Downscaled Precipitation Data and Groundwater Level Records in North-Western Turkey

Downscaling of atmospheric climate parameters is a sophisticated tool to develop statistical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and local-scale meteorological variables. In this study, the variables selected from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data set were used as predictors for the downscaling of monthly precipitation in a watershed located in north-western Turkey where station records terminated two decades ago. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based approach was used to downscale global climate predictors that are positively correlated to the existing time frame of precipitation data in the basin. The downscaled precipitation information were used to extend the non-existing data from the meteorological station, which were later correlated with groundwater level data obtained from automatic pressure transducers that continuously record depth to groundwater. The results of the study showed that, among a large set of NCEP/NCAR parameters, surface precipitation data recorded at the meteorological station was strongly correlated with precipitation rate, air temperature and relative humidity at surface and air temperature at 850, 500, and 200 hPa pressure levels, and geopotential heights at 850 and 200 hPa pressure levels. The gaps in station data were then filled with the correlations obtained from NCEP/NCAR parameters and a complete precipitation data set was obtained that extended to current time line. This extended precipitation time series was later correlated with the existing groundwater level data from an alluvial plain in order to develop a general relationship that can be used in basin-wide water budget estimations. The proposed methodology is believed to serve the needs of engineers and basin planners who try to create a link between related hydrological variables under data-limited conditions.     

黄淮海流域实际蒸散发时空演变规律分析

蒸散发是气候系统能量循环和水分循环的关键要素,探究黄淮海流域实际蒸散发的演变规律及其影响因素对深入理解该区域水循环对气候变化的响应具有重要意义。基于1980—2018年黄淮海流域的GLEAM蒸散发产品数据、气象数据和NDVI数据,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall检验及相关性分析等方法,分析了实际蒸散发的时空演变规律及其影响因素。结果表明：GLEAM产品的计算值在黄淮海流域的验证精度较好,流域内多年平均实际蒸散发量为474 mm,呈显著上升趋势。实际蒸散发的空间变化范围是183～708 mm,空间差异显著,呈现从东南向西北方向递减的趋势,季节的空间分布与年际分布特征基本一致。实际蒸散发与NDVI均呈显著正相关关系,与降水和气温以正相关关系为主。黄淮海流域降水变化不明显,气温显著升高,NDVI增加是流域内实际蒸散发量显著上升的主要原因。     

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

The Zayandeh-Rud River basin, Iran, is projected to face spatiotemporally heterogeneous temperature increase and precipitation reduction that will decrease water supply by mid-century. With projected increase (0.70–1.03 °C) in spring temperature and reduction (6–55%) in winter precipitation, the upper Zayandeh-Rud sub-basin, the main source of renewable water supply, will likely become warmer and drier. In the lower sub-basin, 1.1–1.5 °C increase in temperature and 11–31% decrease in annual precipitation are likely. A system dynamics model was used to analyze adaptation strategies taking into account feedbacks between water resources development and biophysical and socioeconomic sub-systems. Results suggest that infrastructural improvements, rigorous water demand management (e.g., replacing high water demand crops such as rice, corn, and alfalfa), and ecosystem-based regulatory prioritization, complemented by supply augmentation can temporarily alleviate water stress in a basin that is essentially governed by the Limits to Growth archetype.     

Analyzing Large-Scale Hydrologic Processes Using GRACE and Hydrometeorological Datasets

Water demand in India is growing due to its increasing population, economic growth and urbanization. Consequently, knowledge of interdependencies of large-scale hydrometeorological processes is crucial for efficient water resources management. Estimates of Groundwater (GW) derived from Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data provided by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission along with various other satellite observations and model estimates now facilitates such investigations. In an attempt which is first of its kind in India, this study proposes Independent Component Analysis (ICA) based spatiotemporal analysis of Precipitation (P), Evapotranspiration (ET), Surface Soil Moisture (SSM), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), TWS and GW to understand such interdependencies at intra- and interannual time scales. Results indicate that 84–99% of the total variability is explained by the first 6 ICs of all the variables, analyzed for a period 2002–2014. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is the causative-factor of the first component describing 61–82% of the total variability. The phase difference between all seasonal components of P and that of RZSM and ET is a month whereas it is 2 months between the seasonal components of P and that of SSM, TWS and GW. ET is observed to be largely dependent on RZSM while GW appears as the major component of TWS. GW and TWS trends of opposite nature were observed in northern and southern part of India caused by inter-annual rainfall variability. These findings when incorporated in modelling frameworks would improve forecasts resulting in better water management.     

Temporal and Spatial Assessment of Supply and Demand of the Water-yield Ecosystem Service for Water Scarcity Management in Arid to Semi-arid Ecosystems

Water scarcity is one of the problems affecting people’s livelihoods in arid and semi-arid areas, requiring a sustainable balance between water demands and water resources. This study was carried out to assess temporal and spatial distribution of water supply and demand in order to help managers to overcome water scarcity in Jiroft basin, southeastern Iran. Spatial supply and demand of water were mapped and standardized rainfall index (SPI) was used to assess drought for a 20 years period (1994–2014). Supply and demand of water were matched in 23% of the basin area, mostly concentrated in the cold zones. Water supply was reduced up to 80% during dry years, declining water supply-demand matching to 5% of the basin area. Shrub-grass rangelands and deciduous woodlands were the most valuable land covers for conservation with $ 1,100 and $ 936 per hectare water prices respectively. Water value dropped more than 72% in mismanaged ecosystems (p?<?0.01). Our finding showed that water supply-demand ratio can be used as a proxy of ecosystem health and water-yield, which can provide a good information for water resources managers to reduce the threats of water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions.

     

长江流域气象干旱演变特征及未来变化趋势预估

基于长江流域及周边范围在内的318个气象站点1956—2018年的实测资料和CMIP5全球气候模式在3种RCPs情景下的预估数据,以标准化降水蒸散发指数作为干旱等级的划分指标,对流域历史气象干旱时空演变特征进行了分析,并预估了流域未来不同排放情景下的气象干旱时空变化趋势。结果表明:①近60 a,流域干旱率年际变化较大,平均干旱率为18.21%。从年代变化来看,近20 a干旱影响范围普遍较大;干旱频发地区主要位于岷江流域,干旱次数呈从上游向下游递减的趋势;高强度的干旱多发生于金沙江中下游地区和成都平原地区,平均场次干旱强度也呈从上游向下游递减的趋势;②在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,2020—2050年长江流域多年平均干旱面积分别为74.1万km²、75.7万km²和126.4万km²;流域上、中、下游干旱频次多年平均值分别为1.1~1.2次/a、1.0~1.1次/a、1.0~1.1次/a。预估时段内上、中、下游干旱频次较历史时段分别增加38.4%~50.7%,33.7%~45.3%和32.6%~49.6%;预估时段内上、中、下游干旱强度多年平均值分别为-1.68,-1.64,-1.60,与历史时段差别不大。研究结果可为相关部门制订科学合理的干旱灾害防范措施和对策提供科学依据。     

Deep soil water recharge response to precipitation in Mu Us Sandy Land of China

Soil water is the main form of water in desert areas, and its primary source is precipitation, which has a vital impact on the changes in soil moisture and plays an important role in deep soil water recharge (DSWR) in sandy areas. This study investigated the soil water response of mobile sand dunes to precipitation in a semi-arid sandy area of China. Precipitation and soil moisture sensors were used to simultaneously monitor the precipitation and the soil water content (SWC) dynamics of the upper 200-cm soil layer of mobile sand dunes located at the northeastern edge of the Mu Us Sandy Land of China in 2013. The data were used to analyze the characteristics of SWC, infiltration, and eventually DSWR. The results show that the accumulated precipitation (494 mm) from April 1 to November 1 of 2013 significantly influenced SWC at soil depths of 0–200 cm. When SWC in the upper 200-cm soil layer was relatively low (6.49%), the wetting front associated with 53.8 mm of accumulated precipitation could reach the 200-cm deep soil layer. When the SWC of the upper 200-cm soil layer was relatively high (10.22%), the wetting front associated with the 24.2 mm of accumulated precipitation could reach the upper 200-cm deep soil layer. Of the accumulated 494-mm precipitation in 2013, 103.2 mm of precipitation eventually became DSWR, accounting for 20.9% of the precipitation of that year. The annual soil moisture increase was 54.26 mm in 2013. Accurate calculation of DSWR will have important theoretical and practical significance for desert water resources assessment and ecological construction.     

水循环生态效应与区域生态需水类型

本文从水循环基础理论出发,通过分析水文循环过程的能量转化规律,揭示水循环生态效应变化机理,提出判断生态系统演变与水循环关系的基本准则,以此区分生态需水类型。降雨分布决定了内陆河干旱区与外流域生态需水的基本格局,降雨径流关系的稳定性决定了半湿润半干旱区与湿润地区生态需水的差异,依附于地表水体的水生态系统随水量发生变化,其临界点取决于径流量的丰沛程度。我国区域生态需水类型可分为：西北内陆河干旱区植被生态系统需水;半湿润半干旱区河湖与地下水连通系统的整体生态需水;北方湿润地区河湖水生态系统需水;南方湿润地区维持河流生态服务功能最大化的流量。     

白杨河流域的资源开发与生态问题

白杨河流域是一个比较特殊的地区,区域面积大,水资源匮乏,气候干旱,环境恶劣,生态系统脆弱。该文在分析白杨河流域资源开发与生态环境矛盾十分突出的基础上,对区域资源开发利用现状、近远期分析与用水要求及区域生态问题现状与预测进行了初步探讨。说明干旱区资源开发,尤其是水资源的利用,应充分考虑区域生态用水的要求,杜绝盲目、掠夺式开发,以使区域内自然生态系统得以休养生息。