Mid-term supply chain planning under demand uncertainty: customer demand satisfaction and inventory management

This paper utilizes the framework of mid-term, multisite supply chain planning under demand uncertainty to safeguard against inventory depletion at the production sites and excessive shortage at the customer. A chance constraint programming approach in conjunction with a two-stage stochastic programming methodology is utilized for capturing the trade-off between customer demand satisfaction (CDS) and production costs. In the proposed model, the production decisions are made before demand realization while the supply chain decisions are delayed. The challenge associated with obtaining the second stage recourse function is resolved by first obtaining a closed-form solution of the inner optimization problem using linear programming duality followed by expectation evaluation by analytical integration. In addition, analytical expressions for the mean and standard deviation of the inventory are derived and used for setting the appropriate CDS levels in the supply chain. A three-site example supply chain is studied within the proposed framework for providing quantitative guidelines for setting customer satisfaction levels and uncovering effective inventory management options. Results indicate that significant improvement in guaranteed service levels can be obtained for a small increase in the total cost.     

Optimal design and planning of sustainable chemical supply chains under uncertainty

This article addresses the design of sustainable chemical supply chains in the presence of uncertainty in the life cycle inventory associated with the network operation. The design task is mathematically formulated as a bi‐criterion stochastic mixed‐integer nonlinear program (MINLP) that simultaneously accounts for the maximization of the net present value and the minimization of the environmental impact for a given probability level. The environmental performance is measured through the Eco‐indicator 99, which incorporates the recent advances made in Life Cycle Assessment. The stochastic model is converted into its deterministic equivalent by reformulating the probabilistic constraint required to calculate the environmental impact in the space of uncertain parameters. The resulting deterministic bi‐criterion MINLP problem is further reformulated as a parametric MINLP, which is solved by decomposing it into two sub‐problems and iterating between them. The capabilities of the proposed model and solution procedure are illustrated through two case studies for which the set of Pareto optimal, or efficient solutions that trade‐off environmental impact and profit, are calculated. These solutions provide valuable insights into the design problem and are intended to guide the decision maker towards the adoption of more sustainable design alternatives. © 2008 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2009     

Data-driven distributionally robust optimization of shale gas supply chains under uncertainty

This article aims to leverage the big data in shale gas industry for better decision making in optimal design and operations of shale gas supply chains under uncertainty. We propose a two-stage distributionally robust optimization model, where uncertainties associated with both the upstream shale well estimated ultimate recovery and downstream market demand are simultaneously considered. In this model, decisions are classified into first-stage design decisions, which are related to drilling schedule, pipeline installment, and processing plant construction, as well as second-stage operational decisions associated with shale gas production, processing, transportation, and distribution. A data-driven approach is applied to construct the ambiguity set based on principal component analysis and first-order deviation functions. By taking advantage of affine decision rules, a tractable mixed-integer linear programming formulation can be obtained. The applicability of the proposed modeling framework is demonstrated through a small-scale illustrative example and a case study of Marcellus shale gas supply chain. Comparisons with alternative optimization models, including the deterministic and stochastic programming counterparts, are investigated as well. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 65: 947–963, 2019     

Joint capacity planning and distribution network optimization of coal supply chains under uncertainty

A two‐stage stochastic integer programming model is developed to address the joint capacity planning and distribution network optimization of multiechelon coal supply chains (CSCs) under uncertainty. The proposed model not only introduces the uses of compound real options in sequential capacity planning, but also considers uncertainty induced by both risks and ambiguities. Both strategic decisions (i.e., facility locations and initial investment, service assignment across the entire CSC, and option holding status) and scenario‐based operational decisions (i.e., facility operations and capacity expansions, outsourcing policy, and transportation and inventory strategies) can be simultaneously determined using the model. By exploiting the nested decomposable structure of the model, we develop a new distributed parallel optimization algorithm based on nonconvex generalized Bender decomposition and Lagrangean relaxation to mitigate the computation resource limitation. One of the main CSCs in China is studied to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and the performance of the algorithm. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 1246–1261, 2018     

Scenario-based dynamic negotiation for the coordination of multi-enterprise supply chains under uncertainty

A novel scenario-based dynamic negotiation approach is proposed for the coordination of decentralized supply chains under uncertainty. The relations between the involved organizations (client, provider and third parties) and their respective conflicting objectives are captured through a non-zero-sum and non-symmetric roles SBDN negotiation. The client (leader) designs coordination agreements considering the uncertain reaction of the provider (follower) resulting from the uncertain nature of the third parties, which is modeled as a probability of acceptance function. Different negotiation scenarios are studied: (i) cooperative, and (ii) non-cooperative and (iii) standalone cases. The use of the resulting models is illustrated through a case study with different vendors around a “leader” (client) in a decentralized scenario. Although the usual cooperation hypothesis will allow higher overall profit expectations, using the proposed approach it is possible to identify non-cooperative scenarios with high individual profit expectations which are more likely to be accepted by all individual partners.     

Design under uncertainty of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chains: Multiobjective stochastic programming models,decomposition algorithm,and a Comparison between CVaR and downside risk

A bicriterion, multiperiod, stochastic mixed‐integer linear programming model to address the optimal design of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chains under supply and demand uncertainties is presented. The model accounts for multiple conversion technologies, feedstock seasonality and fluctuation, geographical diversity, biomass degradation, demand variation, government incentives, and risk management. The objective is simultaneous minimization of the expected annualized cost and the financial risk. The latter criterion is measured by conditional value‐at‐risk and downside risk. The model simultaneously determines the optimal network design, technology selection, capital investment, production planning, and logistics management decisions. Multicut L‐shaped method is implemented to circumvent the computational burden of solving large scale problems. The proposed modeling framework and algorithm are illustrated through four case studies of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chain for the State of Illinois. Comparisons between the deterministic and stochastic solutions, the different risk metrics, and two decomposition methods are discussed. The computational results show the effectiveness of the proposed strategy for optimal design of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chain under the presence of uncertainties. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2012     

Balancing responsiveness and economics in process supply chain design with multi‐echelon stochastic inventory

This article is concerned with the optimal design of multi‐echelon process supply chains (PSCs) under economic and responsive criteria with considerations of inventory management and demand uncertainty. The multi‐echelon inventory systems are modeled with the guaranteed service approach to handle the uncertain demands at each echelon. The maximum guaranteed service time of the last echelon of the PSC is proposed as a measure of a PSC's responsiveness. The problem is formulated as a bi‐criterion mixed‐integer nonlinear program (MINLP) with the objectives of minimizing the annualized cost (economic objective) and minimizing the maximum guaranteed service times of the markets (responsiveness objective). The model simultaneously predicts the optimal network structure, transportation amounts, and inventory levels under different specifications of the PSC responsiveness. An example on acetic acid supply chain is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model and to comprehensively compare different measures of PSC responsiveness. © 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2011     

Integrated shale gas supply chain design and water management under uncertainty

The development of shale gas resources is subject to technical challenges and markedly affected by volatile markets that can undermine the development of new projects. Consequently, stakeholders can greatly benefit from decision-making support tools that integrate the complexity of the system along with the uncertainties inherent to the problem. Accordingly, a general methodology is proposed in this work for the evaluation of integrated shale gas and water supply chains under uncertainty. First, key parametric uncertainties are identified from a candidate pool via a global sensitivity analysis based on a deterministic optimization model. Then, a two-stage stochastic model is developed considering only the key uncertain parameters in the problem. Moreover, the merits of modeling uncertainty and implementing the stochastic solution approach are evaluated using the expected value of perfect information and the value of the stochastic solution metrics. Furthermore, the conditional value-at-risk approach was implemented to evaluate different risk-aversion levels and the corresponding impacts on the shale gas development plan. The proposed methodology is illustrated through two real-world case studies involving six and eight potential well-pad locations and two options of well-pad layouts. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 65: 924–936, 2019     

Design and planning of infrastructures for bioethanol and sugar production under demand uncertainty

In this paper, we address the strategic planning of integrated bioethanol–sugar supply chains (SC) under uncertainty in the demand. The design task is formulated as a multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem that decides on the capacity expansions of the production and storage facilities of the network over time along with the associated planning decisions (i.e., production rates, sales, etc.). The MILP model seeks to optimize the expected performance of the SC under several financial risk mitigation options. This consideration gives a rise to a multi-objective formulation, whose solution is given by a set of network designs that respond in different ways to the actual realization of the demand (the uncertain parameter). The capabilities of our approach are demonstrated through a case study based on the Argentinean sugarcane industry. Results include the investment strategy for the optimal SC configuration along with an analysis of the effect of demand uncertainty on the economic performance of several biofuels SC structures.     

Robust optimization and stochastic programming approaches for medium-term production scheduling of a large-scale steelmaking continuous casting process under demand uncertainty

Scheduling of steelmaking-continuous casting (SCC) processes is of major importance in iron and steel operations since it is often a bottleneck in iron and steel production. In practice, uncertainties are unavoidable and include demand fluctuations, processing time uncertainty, and equipment malfunction. In the presence of these uncertainties, an optimal schedule generated using nominal parameter values may often be suboptimal or even become infeasible. In this paper, we introduce robust optimization and stochastic programming approaches for addressing demand uncertainty in steelmaking continuous casting operations. In the robust optimization framework, a deterministic robust counterpart optimization model is introduced to guarantee that the production schedule remains feasible for the varying demands. Also, a two-stage scenario based stochastic programming framework is investigated for the scheduling of steelmaking and continuous operations under demand uncertainty. To make the resulting stochastic programming problem computationally tractable, a scenario reduction method has been applied to reduce the number of scenarios to a small set of representative realizations. Results from both the robust optimization and stochastic programming methods demonstrate robustness under demand uncertainty and that the robust optimization-based solution is of comparable quality to the two-stage stochastic programming based solution.     

Integrated multi‐echelon supply chain design with inventories under uncertainty: MINLP models,computational strategies

We address in this article a problem that is of significance to the chemical industry, namely, the optimal design of a multi‐echelon supply chain and the associated inventory systems in the presence of uncertain customer demands. By using the guaranteed service approach to model the multi‐echelon stochastic inventory system, we develop an optimization model to simultaneously determine the transportation, inventory, and network structure of a multi‐echelon supply chain. The model is an MINLP with a nonconvex objective function including bilinear, trilinear, and square root terms. By exploiting the properties of the basic model, we reformulate this problem as a separable concave minimization program. A spatial decomposition algorithm based on the integration of Lagrangean relaxation and piecewise linear approximation is proposed to obtain near global optimal solutions with reasonable computational expense. Examples for specialty chemicals and industrial gas supply chains with up to 15 plants, 100 potential distribution centers, and 200 markets are presented. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2010     

Multistage stochastic programming for the closed-loop supply chain planning with mobile modules under uncertainty

Traditional supply chains usually follow fixed facility designs which coincide with the strategic nature of supply chain management (SCM). However, as the global market turns more volatile, the concept of mobile modularization has been adopted by increasingly more industrial practitioners. In mobile modular networks, modular units can be installed or removed at a particular site to expand or reduce the capacity of a facility, or relocated to other sites to tackle market volatility. In this work, we formulate a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model for the closed-loop supply chain network planning with modular distribution and collection facilities. To further deal with uncertain customer demands and recovery rates, we extend our model to a multistage stochastic programming model and efficiently solve it using a tailored stochastic dynamic dual integer programming (SDDiP) with Magnanti-Wong enhanced cuts. Computational experiments show that the added Magnanti-Wong cuts in the proposed algorithm can effectively close the gap between upper and lower bounds, and the benefit of mobile modules is evident when the temporal and spatial variability of customer demand is high.     

石油供应链计划层优化与不确定性风险管理模型

提出了一种基于有限场景的两阶段随机混合整数线性规划（MILP）模型,来优化不确定条件下多周期、多层级的石油工业供应链的计划层管理。模型以碳排放税的形式将减少CO₂排放的环境目标融入到经济目标之中。供应链的各级节点均以黑箱的形式存在,使模型得以简化,在时间尺度相对较长的计划层获得优化结果,为供应链的计划与管理提供指导方案。并且分析了算例最优期望收益的风险性,在此基础上引入风险管理约束,得到了带有风险管理约束的供应链计划层优化模型。该模型的结果与原模型相比,期望收益附近的收益风险性降低。     

Multiechelon supply chain planning with sequence‐dependent changeovers and price elasticity of demand under uncertainty

An optimization framework is proposed for a multiechelon multiproduct process supply chain planning under demand uncertainty considering inventory deviation and price fluctuation. In this problem, the sequence‐dependent changeovers occur at the production plants, and price elasticity of demand is considered at the markets. Based on the classic formulation of travelling salesman problem (TSP), a mixed‐integer liner programming (MILP) is developed, whose objective function considers the profit, inventory deviations from the desired trajectories and price changes simultaneously. Model predictive control (MPC) approach is adopted to tackle the uncertain issues, as well as the inventory and price maintenance. The applicability of the proposed model and approach was illustrated by solving a supply chain example. Some issues, including length of the control horizon, price elasticity of demand, weights, inventory trajectories, and changeovers, are discussed based on the computational results. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2012     

A systematic framework for enterprise-wide optimization: Synthesis and design of processing networks under uncertainty

In this paper, a systematic framework for synthesis and design of processing networks under uncertainty is presented. Through the framework, an enterprise-wide optimization problem is formulated and solved under uncertain conditions, to identify the network (composed of raw materials, process technologies and product portfolio) which is feasible and have optimal performances over the entire uncertainty domain. Through the integration of different methods, tools, algorithms and databases, the framework guides the user in dealing with the mathematical complexity of the problems, allowing efficient formulation and solution of large and complex enterprise-wide optimization problem. Tools for the analysis of the uncertainty, of its consequences on the decision-making process and for the identification of strategies to mitigate its impact on network performances are integrated in the framework. A decomposition-based approach is employed to deal with the added complexity of the optimization under uncertainty. A network benchmarking problem is proposed as a benchmark for further development of methods, tools and solution approaches. To highlight the features of the framework, a large industrial case study dealing with soybean processing is formulated and solved.     

瓮福磷矿外部供水工程设计

介绍了瓮福磷矿工程设计中外部供水工程的水源地、供水系统的选择，水锤防治，输水管道的选线和敷设，节能措施。     

Operational optimization of industrial steam systems under uncertainty using data-Driven adaptive robust optimization

This article addresses the operational optimization of industrial steam systems under device efficiency uncertainty using a data-driven adaptive robust optimization approach. A semiempirical model of steam turbine is first developed based on process mechanism and operational data. Uncertain parameters of the proposed steam turbine model are further derived from the historical process data. A robust kernel density estimation method is then used to construct the uncertainty sets for modeling these uncertain parameters. The data-driven uncertainty sets are incorporated into a two-stage adaptive robust mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework for operational optimization of steam systems to minimize the total operating cost. Integer variables are introduced to model the on/off decisions of the steam turbines and electrical motors, which are the major energy consumers of the steam system. By applying the affine decision rule, the proposed multilevel optimization model is transformed into its robust counterpart, which is a single-level MILP problem. The proposed framework is applied to the steam system of a real-world ethylene plant to demonstrate its applicability. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 65: e16500 2019     

有机载热体加热系统的设计探讨

有机载热体的优点是在较低的压力下可以获得较高的温度,而又有较好的热稳定性。有机载热体供热系统的设计是一项系统工程,其内容极为丰富,变化复杂。本文所介绍的是供热系统设计中的一些主要问题。     

汽车客运站给排水及消防设计实例

以某汽车客运站为实例,介绍了汽车客运站给排水系统、消火栓灭火系统、自动喷淋系统、大空间智能主动灭火系统、气体灭火系统及屋面虹吸排水系统等的设计情况,探讨了在汽车客运站给排水消防设计中应注意的问题。