空调设计冷负荷计算专家系统的开发

空调设计冷负荷计算具有“不确定性”和“预测性”的特点，为了解决目前空调工程设计中冷负荷设计值普遍偏大的弊病，将专家系统技术与空调冷负荷指标估算法结合起来，利用人工神经网络技术建立了一个空调设计冷负荷计算专家系统，该系统计算结果准确，特别适于经验不足的设计人员使用。     

高层建筑基础选型专家系统研究

通过对高层建筑基础选型设计影响因素的分析，针对基础选型知识的多层次性和不确定性，利用产生式规则和面向对象知识表达方法，实现了高层建筑基础方案选型领域知识的分级构造以及对知识的混合表达、不精确描述和推理。在此基础上利用专家系统工具CLIPS建造了高层建筑基础选型专家系统TBFES。     

专家系统在污水处理系统中的应用与发展

针对污水处理系统的多变量、非线性、时变性与随机性等特点,介绍了专家系统的结构和特点及其在污水处理领域的应用研究现状,分析了其存在的问题。结果表明,国外专家系统发展迅速,并且应用领域遍及污水处理系统的各个方面,国内尚处于起步阶段。最后提出了在污水处理领域专家系统应用研究的发展方向。     

SF6断路器故障专家监测系统的研究

本文提出一种基于SF6断路器故障专家监测系统设计方案。根据SF6断路器工作状态中的各种情况进行监测分析,整体进行专家数据库的定义,对规则的情况进行确切的规定;对于其中突发的、不确定的情况采用模糊神经网络来处理。在系统工作的过程中,针对不同的数据库阶段采取对应的处理方法,同时也不断针对新的状态来完善专家系统。     

CONFAULT-AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR FAULT DIAGNOSIS IN REINFORCED CONCRETE STRUCTURES

Diagnostic applications are especially suitable for expert systems. The expert system CONFAULT diagnoses faults in reinforced concrete structures by identifying fault sub types. The knowledge base in CONFAULT is divided into modules corresponding to six major fault types, while meta rules are used to control and limit searching. A modified confidence factor approach is used to deal with uncertainty.     

Potential for expert systems in the assessment and repair of fire damaged buildings in India

Assessment of structural damage due to fire in buildings can be a complex process plagued by uncertainty. This complexity, argue the authors, arises from subjective opinion and imprecise numerical data. Expert system technology offers significant potential for a systematic assessment and repair of fire damaged buildings through the use of expert knowledge.     

空调器故障诊断专家系统的开发

以空调器为研究对象,针对空调器的工况特性,用产生式规则建立了知识库,使用不精确推理方法建立了推理机制,开发了一个集故障诊断及维修咨询为一体的专家系统。     

岩石力学问题专家系统的一种不确定性推理方法

不确定性知识的处理和运用是岩石力学问题专家系统设计中的关键问题之一。针对岩石力学问题具有随机性、模糊性和信息不完全性的特征，本文提出了一种综合考虑这三种不确定性的不确定性推理方法，给出了单一路径推理和多路径推理的不确定性传播算法。应用神经网络学习知识命题的确定性真值和前提命题的权重，实现了这两部分不确定性知识获取的自动化。应用结果表明，本文提出的不确定性推理模型是科学的、有效的。     

THE HIGHWAY SAFETY EXPERT SYSTEM: DIAGNOSING ACCIDENT PRONE LOCATIONS

This paper describes the diagnosis phase of a highway safety expert system. The overall objective of the expert system is to provide highway safety officials with an efficient tool to identify accident prone locations and then quickly and reliably advise on the appropriate countermeasure(s) based on an analysis of the accident and roadway environment data. The system has three basic phases: detection, diagnosis and remedy. In the diagnosis phase a knowledge-based system is developed to identify the causes and the contribution factors of safety problems at accident prone locations and to suggest appropriate countermeasures. It is shown that the knowledge-based approach best-suits the diagnosis process since it involves a great deal of judgment and experience by the safety engineer. The paper describes different steps involved in developing the diagnosis phase including: knowledge acquisition, problem solving strategy, system features, uncertainty handling, and system verification and validation. The output of the diagnosis phase is a set of applicable countermeasures for each accident prone location and the degree of belief in each countermeasure. The knowledge-based system was validated using several case studies which demonstrated satisfactory results.     

Log-Linear Models in Expert Systems

Abstract: The paper describes how log-linear models can be used to deal with uncertainty in expert systems, avoiding the common problems of many probability-based expert systems. After a general introduction to log-linear models, including hierarchical models, maximum likelihood estimation for poissonian and multinomial sampling is described and parametric and structural learning methods are illustrated by simple examples. Finally, a traffic engineering example is given.     

Neural Networks as Inference and Learning Engines

Abstract: This paper presents an abridgment of a neural network constructive methodology and applications with real data. The neural network can be considered as the learning core and inference engine of an expert system that produces either different network designs or simulations as output, its input being data sequences. Basically, it consists of additive structural learning, limiting it by a cross-validation technique.
Considerations about uncertainty treatment in neural networks are also presented, including uncertainty in data, in neuron activation, in outputs, and combination of several uncertainty sources.
Applications include three different sets of data, all of them related to the energy field. First, river streamflow estimation is discussed. Then CO₂ concentration prediction from gas injection rate is studied. Finally, the program learns to imitate a feedwater control system in a nuclear reactor. All tests show good results, as can be seen when compared with other standard methods.     

基于现场监测的深基坑施工动态风险评估

目前常用的基坑风险评价方法主要是根据专家经验完全进行定性分析,存在很大的主观不确定性。以监测项目作为基坑风险的评价指标,并考虑监测项目之间的相对重要性关系,建立了基于现场监测的深基坑工程施工期风险评估指标体系。以监测报警值作为参考标准将监测数据量化为监测项目的安全风险概率;风险损失以监测项反映的可能风险源采用专家调查法进行估值;兼顾考虑基坑的安全风险概率和风险损失对基坑的风险度进行了分级,并根据风险度等级处理要求作出风险响应。通过工程实例对该风险评估方法进行了应用分析,表明该方法具有信息明确、动态、可靠的特点。     

基于知识发现和决策规则的遥感影像分类研究——以北京市为例

通过对遥感影像的非监督分类、监督分类和专家分类进行机理分析,提出基于知识发现和决策规则的专家知识改进分类精度的技术方案,并以北京市为例,开展对TM遥感影像的非监督分类、监督分类和专家分类的对比分析。专家分类方法由于总结了某一领域内知识发现和决策规则,可容纳更多信息,可以包括各种所需的或可获取的信息,可按某种可信度进行不确定性推理,大幅提高了遥感影像分类精度。     

综合赋权法在储气库选址中的应用

针对主客观结合赋权时系数不确定的问题,结合博弈论综合赋权法的研究成果,基于已建立的圈闭储气库选址结构模型,将层次分析法、变异系数法主客观赋权再综合博弈论赋权并结合灰色系统理论模型,形成一种主客观赋权并结合博弈论的综合赋权法在京津冀圈闭储气库库址优选中应用,评价结果显示shek2、d5、shjxw适合建库,这种方法评价得出的结论与专家验证的一致。评价方法具有简单、合理、科学等优点,可为储气库选址提供参考借鉴。     

Uncertainty analysis in WWTP model applications: A critical discussion using an example from design

This study focuses on uncertainty analysis of WWTP models and analyzes the issue of framing and how it affects the interpretation of uncertainty analysis results. As a case study, the prediction of uncertainty involved in model-based design of a wastewater treatment plant is studied. The Monte Carlo procedure is used for uncertainty estimation, for which the input uncertainty is quantified through expert elicitation and the sampling is performed using the Latin hypercube method. Three scenarios from engineering practice are selected to examine the issue of framing: (1) uncertainty due to stoichiometric, biokinetic and influent parameters; (2) uncertainty due to hydraulic behaviour of the plant and mass transfer parameters; (3) uncertainty due to the combination of (1) and (2). The results demonstrate that depending on the way the uncertainty analysis is framed, the estimated uncertainty of design performance criteria differs significantly. The implication for the practical applications of uncertainty analysis in the wastewater industry is profound: (i) as the uncertainty analysis results are specific to the framing used, the results must be interpreted within the context of that framing; and (ii) the framing must be crafted according to the particular purpose of uncertainty analysis/model application. Finally, it needs to be emphasised that uncertainty analysis is no doubt a powerful tool for model-based design among others, however clear guidelines for good uncertainty analysis in wastewater engineering practice are needed.     

A Hybrid Expert System, GIS, and Simulation Modeling for Environmental and Technological Risk Management

RTXPS, the RealTime eXPert System, integrates a forward chaining expert system and a backward chaining system into a DSS framework using simulation models and GIS for environmental and technological risk assessment and management tasks. The system operates in real-time, and uses time including estimates derived from the forecasting models, in its inference. The architecture features two linked ES strategies, which draw upon an object database of environmental and risk-relevant objects, including data acquisition from GPS locators and sensors, and a GIS, as well as a set of dynamic simulation models implemented in a distributed client–server environment. Monte Carlo methods are used for the explicit treatment of uncertainty. Application examples describe chemical emergency management cases for fixed installations and transportation accidents, environmental impact assessment and risk analysis applications, and an adaptation for technical training for emergency management.     

基于专家系统的消防控制故障诊断研究

本文分析了消防控制故障诊断的特性,运用专家系统提出了消防控制故障诊断的产生式规则知识获取和知识表示方法,设计出了消防控制故障诊断专家系统的模型。利用该系统模型已开发出了消防控制故障诊断专家系统原型。     

专家系统开发环境

本文介绍了专家系统程序设计语言,阐述了专家系统建立工具的基本结构和常用技术,而后分析了专家系统生命周期各阶段的特点,最后对于专家系统智能工具进一步研究的可行途径做了简明的讨论。