Fossil fuel reduction potential in Germany's transport sector by wind-to-hydrogen

Wind-to-hydrogen (WH) is a promising option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Therefore, the reduction potential of fossil fuels by WH was estimated taking meteorological, geographical, and technical constraints into account. The wind resource estimation is based on the application of the high-resolution (200 m × 200 m) wind speed-wind shear model (WSWS). Together with the power curves of the six most frequently installed wind turbines in 2017, WSWS was used to assess Germany's technical wind energy potential. The WH and fossil fuel reduction potentials were calculated based on proton exchange membrane electrolysis. Results from the wind resource assessment demonstrate that in addition to the currently realized wind energy (89 TWh/yr in 2017), which is directly used for electricity generation, Germany's technical onshore potential for WH is 780 TWh/yr. This amount of renewable energy available for WH could replace 80.1% of the fossil fuels currently used in the transport sector.     

An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico

The majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data. Since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico. National elasticities with respect to price, income, vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel GMM model for Mexican states. Estimates for Mexico City are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by Graham and Glaister (2006), and by estimating a panel Within Groups model with data aggregated by borough. Although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly. Elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels, with smaller price responses in Mexico City. In general, price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys, a pattern previously found in developing countries. The fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that Mexico City residents are purchasing larger vehicles. Elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible, which suggests little substitution between modes. Finally, the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size, rather than its composition, has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in Mexico City.     

Prospects and impediments for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles in the transport sector

Hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles are often discussed as crucial elements in the decarbonisation of the transport systems. However, in spite of the fact that hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles have a long history, they are still seen only as a long-term mobility option. The major objective of this paper is to analyse key barriers to the increasing use of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles. A special focus is put on their economic performance, because this will be most crucial for their future deployment. Mobility costs are calculated based on the total cost of ownership, and future developments are analysed based on technological learning. The major conclusion is that to achieve full benefits of hydrogen and fuel cells in the transport sector, it is necessary to provide stabile, long-term policy framework conditions, as well as to harmonize actions across regions to be able to take advantage of economies of scale.     

Modelling and simulation of the utilization of a PEM fuel cell in the rural sector of Venezuela

We studied the use of Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cells in rural villages of Venezuela lacking a permanent and reliable energy supply. For this purpose, we formulated a semi-empirical mathematical model representing the main technical and economic features involved in the operation of the PEM cells. The simulation of the resulting non-linear model spans a 20-year time horizon, considering how costs are affected by the expected increase in the energy demand of the rural population, to which it is applied and the decrease in the unit costs of the cell on account of technological improvements and mass production of the cell. These villages are located in the parish of Trinidad de la Capilla, in the central-west part of the country. They were selected on the basis of various social and economic factors involving percentage of rural population and the Human Development Index. The results show that the main operating variables, current density, efficiency and generated voltage, show the typical behaviour of this type of cell, whereas, from the economic point of view, the cost of the electricity produced by the cell stack decreases to constant values, both for the same year and interanually, due to the economy of scale and because the investment costs and the costs of the hydrogen used offset one another. The use of PEM cells, besides meeting the energy requirements of this Venezuelan rural parish, is viable in principle, as it contributes in a large way to improving the quality of life and sustainable development of these isolated and depressed regions, which, due to their distance from the electrical grid and their surface area, are not covered by it, and probably will not be in the near future.     

Energy efficiency in the transport sector

The distribution of energy use in the transport sector in the United States of America is presented and analysed in terms of the efficient use of energy in various applications. Comparisons are drawn with other modelling efforts.     

Modelling the impacts of CDM incentives for the Thai electricity sector

The CDM Executive Board recently took a positive decision on programmatic CDM, also known as a CDM Programme of Activities. This prompts the author to present a new tool that has been developed recently for the Thai electricity market. The Renewable Energy Development (RED) Model, initially developed in the framework of the DANIDA funded project: Promotion of Renewable Energy in Thailand (PRET), at the Ministry of Energy of Thailand, was designed for the modelling of different incentive schemes and their effects on the Thai power system for the promotion of renewable energy technologies (RETs). Within this article, an extension of the existing RED model, including the CDM as additional incentive measure, is presented (RED-CDM). Along with the project-based approach, also a sectoral and programmatic approach is included as well. Several scenarios developed with the RED-CDM model show the influence of different incentive mechanisms on the Thai power market and their potentials for reaching the policy targets stated in the Energy Strategy of Thailand for Competitiveness. The main results show that reaching the policy targets is possible, while the price can be extremely high if the targets are to be achieved on schedule. Another important result is that a sectoral CDM approach could help financing about 20% of the incentives needed for a shift towards a more sustainable power grid, if the certified emission reductions (CERs) are sold at a price of 15 Euro/ton.     

Potential energy demand for cooling in the 50 largest metropolitan areas of the world: Implications for developing countries

Air conditioning of dwellings in developing countries is currently rather rare, but increasing personal income is expected to change that. This study examined the potential energy demand for cooling in the 50 most populous metropolitan areas of the world, and assessed the incremental demand in developing countries that this would create on top of the current energy demand due to heating. The analysis used local cooling and heating degree-day data. The main results are as follows: (1) Most of the largest metropolitan areas are in developing countries (38 out of 50), and most of them, in turn, are in warm to hot climates. (2) All but two of the top 30 metropolitan areas in terms of cooling degree days are in developing countries. (3) The potential cooling demands are greater than heating demands in most of the metropolitan areas that are in developing countries (24 out of 38). The main implication of these findings is that increasing personal income is likely to lead to an unprecedented increase in energy demand in many developing countries. For example, the potential cooling demand in metropolitan Mumbai is about 24% of the demand for the entire United States.     

A multi-source multi-product internal reforming fuel cell energy system as a stepping stone in the transition towards a more sustainable energy and transport sector

This paper explores the innovative concept of flexible poly-generation of hydrogen, power and heat using an internal reforming fuel cell. Flow sheet calculations show that total efficiency of the system in terms of hydrogen and power production can be increased significantly up to 90%. Furthermore by the coproduction of hydrogen, operation at double power density becomes feasible. The concept does not suffer from small demand in the beginning of the transition, because of its ability 1) to produce flexibly according to demand, 2) to continuously produce one or more valuable products also at low demand for one of the other products. The concept also overcomes one of the main hurdles of cogeneration namely that it requires heat driven operation in order to really obtain its high efficiency in practice. The flexible poly-generation concept is analyzed to be an important stepping stone in the transition towards a sustainable energy and transport sector.     

Transport and energy in developing countries

The author examines the transport energy consumption of developing countries and compares it with that of developed countries. These figures are found to suggest considerable scope for transport energy savings. Given the need for improved energy efficiency, the author moves on to consider transport in the context of the wider economy. Four broad policy approaches which can affect transport energy consumption are identified — information and training programmes, subsidies; pricing and tax policies; and administrative regulations. The author's primary conclusion is that the energy price changes of the last decade do not hold revolutionary implications for the transport sector. There remains, however, a need to improve efficiency in this sector.     

Energy analysis and exergy utilization in the transportation sector of Jordan

The transport sector is responsible for about 37% of total final energy demand in Jordan, and thus it is considered an important driver for determining future national energy needs. This paper presents energy analysis and exergy utilization in the transportation sector of Jordan by considering the sectoral energy and exergy flows for the last two decades. The transportation sector, in Jordan, is a two-mode system, namely, road, which covers almost all domestic passenger and freight transport and airways. The latter is mainly used for international flights. The average estimated overall energy and exergy efficiencies were found as 23.2% and 22.8%, respectively. This simply indicates that there is large potential for improvement and efficiency enhancement. It is believed that the present technique is practical and useful for analyzing sectoral energy and exergy utilization to determine how efficiently energy and exergy are used in the transportation sector. It is also helpful to establish standards, based on exergy, to facilitate applications in different planning processes such as energy planning. A comparison with other countries showed that energy and exergy efficiencies of the Jordanian transport sector are slightly lower than that of Turkey, and higher than those incurred in Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Norway. Such difference is inevitable due to dissimilar structure of the transport sector in these countries.     

Modelling fuel demand for different socio-economic groups

The fuel demand literature provides a range of estimates of the long and short-run price and income elasticities of gasoline demand for different countries and states. These estimates can be very useful in predicting the overall impacts of policy approaches designed to reduce fuel consumption and to address concerns of carbon emissions or energy security. However, analysis of policy options based on elasticities that are homogenous across income groups provides no information about the relative distributional burden that may be faced by different sectors of the population. Different responses to the same change in price or income are likely to occur, dependent on both travel needs and income levels. This paper estimates gasoline demand elasticities for different income quintiles in the United States to test for heterogeneity in demand response. Group wise summary consumer expenditure data for 20 years is used to derive the elasticity estimates. The results show that the elasticities do vary across groups and follow a U-pattern from the lowest to the highest income quintile. The lowest income quintile is found to have the largest price elasticity. The lowest and the highest income quintiles appear to be statistically insensitive to any changes in income. The rebound effect also follows the U-pattern, with the highest rebound observed among the wealthiest households. Rural households appear to have lower price elasticity than households in urban areas.     

World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities

This paper presents the International Energy Agency's (IEA) approach of modelling transport energy demand. Fuel demand, which is not a demand per se, is derived, whenever possible, from the economic activity in the transport sector and not estimated directly, ie using one equation or (simultaneous) equation system. In general, the transport models employ a ‘two-step-approach’: in the first step, transport activity, the sector's relevant energy service, is estimated econometrically. In the second step, the transport activity projections are then combined with estimates of efficiency improvements, car turnover rates and diesel/gasoline penetration assumptions in order to arrive at projections of fuel demand. The principal advantages of this approach are that the relevant energy services are modelled and that, for model simulation, efficiency improvements can be dealt with explicitly. The effectiveness of economic instruments is a function of the reaction of consumers (and businesses) to income and price changes. An in-depth understanding of income and price elasticities of transport demand and transport energy demand is important in order to be able to assess the effectiveness of policies considered. The paper also shows the underlying long-term income and price elasticities for OECD and non-OECD regions.     

On the economics of hydrogen from renewable energy sources as an alternative fuel in transport sector in Austria

The core objective of this work is to analyse the possible future relevance of hydrogen from renewable energy sources in the transport sector from an economic point-of-view with special focus on Austria. The analysis is conducted in a dynamic framework until 2050.     

Hydrogen fuel and the Belgian transport sector: A critical assessment from an environmental and sustainable development perspective

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the potential role of hydrogen (H₂) in the Belgian transport sector in the context of sustainable and environmentally friendly growth. This paper starts by examining the energy-climate roadmap and the emission mitigation programme defined by the Belgian federal government in the context of environmental sustainability. Then, the Belgian situation is critically evaluated in light of the needs for H₂ fuel in the transport sector, as well as issues about a roadmap on environmental considerations for a sustainable future, while preserving the country's economic stakes. There are several key advances in this direction, especially as H₂ is seen as one of the best viable options for sustained development, unlike other possibilities. This paper also highlights some limitations that make it difficult to accelerate the transition to a sustainable H₂ energy future. Although there are many interests in favour of an advanced and non-polluting transport system, there are differing views on the approach to be taken in political decision-making at national level. Therefore, this study will help public authorities to better integrate environmental and sustainability issues in the context of a transition to a comprehensive hydrogen economy in the current transport sector.     

The prospects for hard coal as a fuel for the Polish power sector

This paper presents the prospects for the development of the Polish hard coal sector from the perspective of the power sector. The most important issues determining the mid- and long-term future for domestic coal production are: (1) the development of the economy, hence the demand for electricity, (2) regulations (mostly environmental) affecting the power sector, (3) the competitiveness of coal-based technologies, and (4) the costs of domestic coal production. Since the range of issues and relations being considered is very broad, a specific method needs to be employed for the quantitative analysis. The tool applied in this study is the partial equilibrium model POWER-POL, in which both the coal and the power sectors are incorporated. The model focuses on energy–economy–environmental issues without capturing detailed macroeconomic links. The model was run under six scenario assumptions. The results show that the domestic coal sector should maintain its position as a key supplier of primary energy for the Polish power sector. However, the environmental regulations to which the domestic power sector has to conform will decrease the share of coal in the fuel-mix. Since the investment processes in this sector are usually long-term, the effects of changes will be noticeable from 2015 onwards.     

Environmental assessment of the Greek transport sector

Transport constitutes a crucial factor to the quality of life, since many people depend greatly on access to a reliable transport system. However, there are concerns about the impacts of the transport system on the quality of life, since it constitutes one of the main sources of greenhouse gases and also gives rise to significant air pollution stemming from acidifying pollutants, ozone precursors and particulate matter. During the last decade, the demand for transport services in Greece has rapidly grown following the European trend. Transport policies have recognised the need to restrain transport growth and to improve the various transport modes. Technology and fuel improvements have resulted in decreases of emissions of certain pollutants. Taking into account the major role of road transport in Greece for both passenger and goods transport, this work is focused on the assessment of the Greek transport sector. The changes made in the Greek transport sector during the past decade as well as the adverse environmental impacts of the Greek transport sector are presented and analysed. This work aims to present, assess and investigate the progress of the Greek transport sector—over the past decade—in relation to its sustainability. The scope is to examine the effectiveness of various emission reduction measures, in terms of their effectiveness in reducing emissions from transport.     

Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China

China has been the second CO₂ emitter in the world, while the transportation sector accounts for a major share of CO₂ emissions. Analysis of transportation sector CO₂ emissions is help to decrease CO₂ emissions. Thus the purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential factors influencing the change of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China. First, the transport sector CO₂ emissions over the period 1985–2009 is calculated based on the presented method. Then the presented LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) method is used to find the nature of the factors those influence the changes in transport sector CO₂ emissions. We find that: (1) Transport sector CO₂ emissions has increased from 79.67 Mt in 1985 to 887.34 Mt in 2009, following an annual growth rate of 10.56%. Highways transport is the biggest CO₂ emitter. (2) The per capita economic activity effect and transportation modal shifting effect are found to be primarily responsible for driving transport sector CO₂ emissions growth over the study period. (3) The transportation intensity effect and transportation services share effect are found to be the main drivers of the reduction of CO₂ emissions in China. However, the emission coefficient effect plays a very minor role over the study period.     

Hydrogen fuel tanks for subsonic transport aircraft

Hydrogen is since long seen as an outstanding candidate for an environmentally acceptable, future aviation fuel. Since the first studies, the design of light yet highly insulated tanks for cryogenic liquid hydrogen has been identified as one of the key enabling technologies. Despite this early recognition, the design of the tanks is nowadays still seen as crucial as aircraft tanks differ significantly from existing tanks in the automotive or aerospace sector. To enable system level feasibility studies of hydrogen fueled aircraft, a preliminary design model for aircraft liquid hydrogen tanks is developed for both foam and multilayer insulations. This model is then used to design tanks for a small regional airliner as well as a large long range transport aircraft. Foam based and multilayer insulations are compared and the sensitivity of the tank weight to the fuselage diameter and the mission fuel load is assessed. The influence of a ‘hold’ period before take-off is analyzed too. As the developed model is intended for use in the preliminary aircraft design phase, structural design or attachment issues are not addressed.     

Factors affecting transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Latin American and Caribbean countries: An LMDI decomposition analysis

This study determines the factors responsible for the growth of transport sector CO₂ emissions in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix (FM), modal shift and economic growth, as well as changes in emission coefficients (EC) and transportation energy intensity (EI). The key finding of the study is that economic growth and the changes in transportation EI are the principal factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While economic growth is responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Peru and Uruguay, the transportation EI effect is driving CO₂ emissions in Bolivia, the Caribbean, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Other Latin America, Panama and Paraguay. Both economic activity (EA) and EI effects are found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in the rest of the Latin American countries. In order to limit CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector in LAC countries, decoupling of the growth of CO₂ emissions from economic growth is necessary; this can be done through policy instruments to promote fuel switching, modal shifting and reductions in transport sector EI. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy demand and interfuel substitution in the transportation sector

The analysis in this paper is directed at examining the effect of energy prices on the quantity of energy demanded in the transportation sector in the United States. For motor gasoline, the suggestion is that vehicle miles travelled as well as the stock of automobiles respond to changing motor gasoline prices. For other fuels consumed in this sector, the quantity of energy consumed does respond to energy prices as well as the level of economic activity. The magnitude of the response is typically small.