Projected impacts of climate change on wind energy density in the United States

Wind-generated electricity is a growing renewable energy resource. Because wind results from the uneven heating (and resulting pressure gradients) of the Earth, future wind resources may be affected by anticipated climate change. Many studies have used global and regional climate models to predict trends in the future wind resource over the continental United States. While some of these studies identified regions that are expected to gain wind energy, their results often come with a high degree of uncertainty, and lack of agreement across different climate models. In this paper we focus on wind energy density as a measure of the available wind resource over the continental United States. We estimate the change in wind energy density from the period 1968–2000 to the period 2038–2070 by using output from four regional climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). We find strong agreement across all 4 models that the wind energy resource is expected to increase in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas – a region already in possession of both large scale generating capacity and political support for wind energy.     

开发绿色能源,应对全球气候变化

气候灾难的频频警告,已使气候问题上升为全球关注的焦点。12月3日～14日在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行的2007年联合国气候变化大会,万人与会,意义不凡。联合国环境规划署发布《气候变化的影响和适应评估报告》,呼吁各国采取行动适应气候变化,在制     

Role of endogenous energy efficiency improvement in global climate change mitigation

Improving the energy efficiency of conventional energy services is an essential way to cope with global CO₂ emissions mitigation. To date, energy efficiency improvement (EEI) has been broadly introduced exogenously in integrated assessment models (IAMs) by virtue of the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) coefficient; however, it is usually good at capturing the EEI driven by non-price factors, while weak in describing the EEI induced by policy incentives. In this paper, we introduce an endogenous EEI (EEEI) mechanism in an IAM, called E3METL, to explore the impacts of EEEI on the global macro-economy, CO₂ emission paths, and timing of carbon mitigations. The results reveal that (1) introducing EEEI significantly improves gross world product (GWP) gains, and this positive effect is partly offset when carbon restriction policies are implemented; (2) R&D investment dedicated to enhance energy efficiency limits R&D expenditures for other alternative technologies, and this effect will impede the development of non-fossil technologies; (3) EEEI may perform as one of supporting factors to delay the actions of carbon reduction; moreover, the introduction of EEEI lowers the optimal carbon tax level by 7.8 % on average, as compared to the no EEEI case.     

Vulnerability of wind power resources to climate change in the continental United States

Renewable energy resources will play a key role in meeting the world's energy demand over the coming decades. Unfortunately, these resources are all susceptible to variations in climate, and hence vulnerable to climate change. Recent findings in the atmospheric science literature suggest that the impacts of greenhouse gas induced warming are likely to significantly alter climate patterns in the future. In this paper we investigate the potential impacts of climate change on wind speeds and hence on wind power, across the continental US. General Circulation Model output from the Canadian Climate Center and the Hadley Center were used to provide a range of possible variations in seasonal mean wind magnitude. These projections were used to investigate the vulnerability of current and potential wind power generation regions. The models were generally consistent in predicting that the US will see reduced wind speeds of 1.0 to 3.2% in the next 50 years, and 1.4 to 4.5% over the next 100 years. In both cases the Canadian model predicted larger decreases in wind speeds. At regional scales the two models showed some similarities in early years of simulations (e.g. 2050), but diverged significantly in their predictions for 2100. Hence, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding how wind fields will change in the future. Nevertheless, the two models investigated here are used as possible scenarios for use in investigating regional wind power vulnerabilities, and point to the need to consider climate variability and long term climate change in citing wind power facilities.     

Nuclear energy for the United States

The historical trend toward increasing electrification is expected to continue, requiring substantial increases in U.S. electric power generating capacity. Nuclear power and coal are expected to be the only alternatives capable of making a major contribution to meeting this demand for the next several decades. This paper examines what nuclear could do to assure the United States of adequate supplies of energy at reasonable prices through the turn of the century and beyond. The approach used was to determine how rapidly nuclear generating capacity could be expanded if a national commitment was made to solve the licensing, regulatory and political problems which are currently discouraging utilities from making further nuclear commitments. It was concluded that a total of 550 GWe of nuclear capacity could be in operation by the year 2000. Achieving this desirable goal would require a strong commitment by government and industry to work together to replace the current adversary relationship with one of mutual cooperation.     

Renewable energy: a response to climate change

“We recognize the importance of renewable energy for sustainable development, diversification of energy supply, and preservation of the environment. We will ensure that renewable energy sources are adequately considered in our national plans and encourage others to do so as well. We encourage continuing research and investment in renewable energy technology, throughout the world”.Communique from the G8 Leaders’ Summit, Genoa, July 2001.The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC confirmed that the Earth’s climate is changing as a result of human activities, particularly from energy use, and that further change is inevitable. Natural ecosystems are already adapting to change, some are under threat, and it is evident that human health and habitats will be affected world-wide. Such climate changes could also affect the present supplies of renewable energy sources and the performance and reliability of the conversion technologies. This paper concentrates on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and the role that the global renewable energy industry might play in this regard. (The five other major greenhouse gases are given less emphasis here.) The paper compares the costs of renewable energy systems with fossil fuel-derived energy services and considers how placing a value on carbon emissions will help provide convergence. The move towards a de-carbonised world, driven partly by climate change science and partly by the business opportunities it offers, will need to occur sooner rather than later if an acceptable stabilisation level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is to be achieved. Government policy decisions made now will determine the sort of future world we wish our children to inherit. The renewable energy era has begun.     

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000–2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO₂ emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO₂ emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change.     

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

In order to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM–UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO₂ emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low.     

Global climate change: Implications for thailand's energy systems

An energy/environmental model has been developed to estimate Thailand's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through the end of the National Tenth Plan (year 2011). The projection suggests that fossil-fuel consumption, not deforestation, will be the major source of emissions during 1990–2011. By the year 2011, energy-efficiency improvement measures could bring about a 14% reduction of CO₂ emissions. Any reduction beyond this level would require switches of fuel mix in the power, transportation, and industrial sectors. Fuel shifts in the power sector alone could cut emissions by up to 20% to 30%. In the longer run, Thailand should consider adopting unconventional sources of energy, as well as make use of reforestation policy to absorb future CO₂ emissions.     

Effort sharing in ambitious,global climate change mitigation scenarios

The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either ‐10%$‐10\%$ or ‐50%$‐50\%$ from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.     

Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States

This paper investigates the effect of disaggregate energy consumption on industrial output in the United States. Most of the related research utilizes aggregate data which may not indicate the relative strength or explanatory power of various energy inputs on output. We use monthly data and employ the generalized variance decomposition approach to assess the relative impacts of energy and employment on real output. Our results suggest that unexpected shocks to coal, natural gas and fossil fuel energy sources have the highest impacts on the variation of output, while several renewable sources exhibit considerable explanatory power as well. However, none of the energy sources explain more of the forecast error variance of industrial output than employment.     

Renewable energy sources in Turkey for climate change mitigation and energy sustainability

In Turkey, there is a much more potential for renewables, but represent about 37% of total energy production and 10% of total energy consumption. This share is not enough for the country and the governments should be increase to this situation. Renewable energy technologies of wind, biomass, hydropower, geothermal, solar thermal and photovoltaics are finally showing maturity and the ultimate promise of cost competitiveness. With respect to global environmental issues, Turkey's carbon dioxide emissions have grown along with its energy consumption. States have played a leading role in protecting the environment by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be the one of the most efficient and effective solutions for clean and sustainable energy development in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of these renewable energy sources. Certain policy interventions could have a dramatic impact on shaping the relationship between geological, geographic and climatic conditions and energy production. This study shows that there is enough renewable energy potential in Turkey for fuels and electricity. Especially hydropower and biomass are very well.     

Power from Perspective: Potential future United States energy portfolios

This paper presents United States energy portfolios for the year 2030, developed from seven different Perspectives. The Perspectives are characterized by different weights placed on fourteen defining values (e.g., cost, social acceptance). The portfolios were constructed to achieve three primary goals, energy independence, energy security, and greenhouse gas reductions. The portfolios are also evaluated over a comprehensive set of secondary criteria (e.g., economic growth, technical feasibility). It is found that very different portfolios based on very different defining values can achieve the three primary goals. Commonalities among the portfolios include reliance upon cellulosic ethanol, nuclear power, and energy efficiency to meet year 2030 energy demands. It is concluded that the US energy portfolio must be diverse and to achieve national energy goals will require an explicit statement of goals, a strong role for government, and coordinated action across society.     

Technology transfer through climate change: Setting a sustainable energy pattern

Climate change mitigation is considered as a high priority internationally and is placed in the top of the agenda for most politicians and decision makers. The key challenge is that low-carbon sustainable technologies need to be adopted both by developed as well as developing countries, in an effort to avoid past unsustainable practices and being locked into old, less sustainable technologies. Technology transfer (TT), as an important feature of both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol can play a key role. TT can allow countries to move quickly to environmentally sound and sustainable practices, institutions and technologies. Indeed, the transfer or innovation process must be fast enough, to reduce global vulnerability to climate change. The aim of this paper is to analyse the TT challenges and emerging opportunities under the new climate regime, in terms of the process of innovation into an existing energy system, the related barriers and the supporting diffusion mechanisms. Good practices for renewable energy are also presented and discussed by both the developed and the developing countries in this respect.     

Southeastern United States wood pellets as a global energy resource: a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment derived from empirical data

Given increased policies driving renewable electricity generation and insufficient local production of woody biomass, many countries are reliant upon the importation of wood pellets. Of current wood pellet exports, the vast majority originates from the Southeastern United States (US). In this paper we present results from a cradle-to-gate, attributional process life cycle assessment in which two production scenarios of wood pellets were modelled for the Southeastern US: one utilising roundwood from a silviculture operation and the other utilising sawmill residues. The system boundary includes all steps from harvesting of the wood biomass, through delivery of the finished wood pellets to a US port facility. For each of the impact categories assessed, wood pellets from sawmill residues resulted in higher values, ranging from 5% to 31%. In relation to Global Warming Potential, roundwood pellets resulted in a 13–21% lower value than pellets produced from sawmill residues, depending upon the allocation method.     

Woody energy crops in the southeastern United States: Two centuries of practitioner experience

Forest industry experts were consulted on the potential for hardwood tree species to serve as feedstock for bioenergy in the southeastern United States. Hardwoods are of interest for bioenergy because of desirable physical qualities, genetic research advances, and growth potential. Yet little data is available regarding potential productivity and costs. This paper describes required operations and provides a realistic estimate of the costs of producing bioenergy feedstock based on commercial experiences. Forestry practitioners reported that high productivity rates in southeastern hardwood plantations are confined to narrow site conditions or require costly inputs. Eastern cottonwood and American sycamore grow quickly on rich bottomlands, but are also prone to pests and disease. Sweetgum is frost hardy, has few pest or disease problems, and grows across a broad range of sites, yet growth rates are relatively low. Eucalypts require fewer inputs than do other species and offer high potential productivity but are limited by frost to the lower Coastal Plain and Florida. Further research is required to study naturally regenerated hardwood biomass resources. Loblolly pine has robust site requirements, growth rates rivaling hardwoods, and lower costs of production. More time and investment in silviculture, selection, and breeding will be needed to develop hardwoods as competitive biofuel feedstock species. Because of existing stands and fully developed operations, the forestry community considers loblolly pine to be a prime candidate for plantation bioenergy in the Southeast.     

The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil

Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources, however, greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities of renewable energy production in Brazil for the cases of hydropower generation and liquid biofuels production, given a set of long-term climate projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. The most important result found in this study is the increasing energy vulnerability of the poorest regions of Brazil to GCC. Both biofuels production (particularly biodiesel) and electricity generation (particularly hydropower) may negatively suffer from changes in the climate of those regions. Other renewable energy sources—such as wind power generation—may also be vulnerable, raising the need for further research. However, the results found are fundamentally dependent on the climate projections which, in turn, are still highly uncertain with respect to the future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and GCC. Therefore, in such long-term scenario analyses, the trends and directions derived are the ones to be emphasized rather than the precise results one arrives.     

Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5–10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential.