Forensically relevant moderators of the relation between eyewitness identification accuracy and confidence.

Meta-analyses of 9 studies were conducted that all assess the association between pre-lineup confidence and identification accuracy; the association between post-lineup confidence produces a stronger correlation with identification accuracy than does pre-lineup confidence. In 5 of these studies the difference between correlations is statistically significant. Furthermore, correlations between pre-lineup confidence and accuracy were trivial in magnitude, ranging from .00 to .20. The conclusion is drawn that a witness's confidence in his or her ability to make an identification should not be given much weight in determining whether or not to have the witness attempt an identification. Also, pre-lineup confidence should not be used to evaluate the accuracy of an identification. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Recall memory, recognition memory, and the eyewitness confidence–accuracy correlation.

Research on the eyewitness confidence-accuracy correlation assesses the degree of insight that eyewitnesses have into the accuracy of their memories. Recently, researchers have begun to consider some of the variables that may facilitate or hinder such insight. In the present study with 205 college undergraduates, a previously unexamined influence on this correlation in the context of memory for details of a simulated crime was investigated. The authors hypothesized and found that recall memory conditions (in which no alternative answers were provided) were characterized by a higher eyewitness confidence–accuracy correlation than recognition memory conditions (in which alternative answers were provided). These findings are explained as a function of the availability of an ease-of-retrieval cue in recall memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Reaction time and assessments of cognitive effort as predictors of eyewitness memory accuracy and confidence.

The authors investigate reaction time (RT), subjective assessments of memory processing, and confidence as predictors of memory for the details of a crime. The authors also examine the mediation of a previously identified difference between recognition tasks and recall tasks in the correlation between confidence and accuracy. College undergraduates (n?=?111) answered either recognition or recall questions. RT and subjective assessments of cognitive effort were both negatively related to confidence and accuracy. Subjective assessments, however, were superior predictors of confidence, whereas RT was a unique predictor of accuracy. The RT–confidence and RT–accuracy correlations were stronger under recall conditions than under recognition conditions. Multiple regression results suggested a possible explanation for the superior insight of recall participants into memory accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Choosing, confidence, and accuracy: A meta-analysis of the confidence-accuracy relation in eyewitness identification studies.

There is widespread agreement among researchers that the correlation between identification accuracy and confidence in identification judgments is weak. For this reason, many experts caution against heavy reliance on confidence when evaluating identification accuracy. The authors present a meta-analytic review of 30 studies using staged-event methods that include target-present and target-absent lineups. Although the overall confidence–accuracy correlation in these studies corresponds to that reported in previous reviews, including choice as a moderator variable leads to a somewhat different conclusion. For choosers (those making positive identification), the confidence–accuracy correlation was reliably and consistently higher than for nonchoosers. In addition, the mean confidence level for correct choosers is higher than that for incorrect choosers in every study. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Calibration and diagnosticity of confidence in eyewitness identification: Comments on what can be inferred from the low confidence–accuracy correlation.

The relationship between eyewitness confidence and accuracy as measured by the ψ point-biserial correlation has been described as poor or even nonexistent in the literature on lineup identifications. In this article, 3 arguments are made. First, a low point-biserial correlation is compatible with good or even perfect calibration (realism) of confidence, and the correlation provides no information about whether witnesses over- or underestimate the probability of a correct identification. Second, point-biserial correlations provide almost no information about whether confidence is diagnostic in the sense that it should be taken into account by the court when evaluating eyewitness identifications. Third, useful information is provided by calibration analysis and computation of diagnosticity indices. These arguments are illustrated with data from an experiment with photo-confrontations that rely on photo material used by the Swedish Police and where foils were selected by experienced police officers in the manner of routine investigations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The malleability of eyewitness confidence: Co-witness and perseverance effects.

A theft was staged 70 times for pairs of eyewitnesses (N?=?140) who then made a photo-lineup identification. Witnesses then received 1 of 9 types of information regarding the alleged identification decision of their co-witness. Witnesses told that their co-witness identified the same person whom they had identified showed an increase in the confidence they expressed to a confederate police officer. Confidence deflation occurred among witnesses who thought their co-witness either identified another person or had stated that the thief was not in the lineup. Initial co-witness information was not mitigated by subsequent changes to that information. A 2nd study showed videotapes of these witnesses' testimonies to observers (n?=?378) whose credibility ratings of the testimony paralleled the witnesses' self-rated confidence. Eyewitness identification confidence was highly malleable after the identification had been made despite the fact that physical resemblance between the culprit and person identified had not changed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Multiple confidence estimates as indices of eyewitness memory.

Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated. Classification algorithms were applied to participants' confidence data to determine when a confidence value or pattern of confidence values indicated a positive response. Experiment 1 compared confidence group classification accuracy with a binary decision control group's accuracy on a standard old-new face recognition task and found superior accuracy for the confidence group for target-absent trials but not for target-present trials. Experiment 2 used a face mini-lineup task and found reduced target-present accuracy offset by large gains in target-absent accuracy. Using a standard lineup paradigm, Experiments 3 and 4 also found improved classification accuracy for target-absent lineups and, with a more sophisticated algorithm, for target-present lineups. This demonstrates the accessibility of evidence for recognition memory decisions and points to a more sensitive index of memory quality than is afforded by binary decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Victimization as a determinant of eyewitness accuracy.

Eyewitness identification research frequently uses a simulated crime paradigm, yet the witnesses in these studies are seldom themselves the victims of the crime. To the degree a witness is more personally involved (as a victim), eyewitness identification accuracy and confidence might be modified. 66 undergraduates were randomly assigned to 3 eyewitness conditions: no-theft control, impersonal calculator theft, or personalized watch theft. Whereas the victims in the watch-theft condition were more accurate than Ss in the other 2 treatments, they were not significantly more accurate than witnesses to the less personal calculator theft. Eyewitnesses' accuracy was unrelated to their confidence in their identification. (12 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Accuracy, confidence, and juror perceptions in eyewitness identification.

Undergraduates of both sexes individually witnessed the staged theft of a calculator. The 127 witnesses were then given the opportunity to identify the thief from a 6-person picture array; from this sample, 24 accurate-identification witnesses and 18 inaccurate-identification witnesses were cross-examined with either leading or nonleading questions. 201 undergraduates who served as jurors were unable to distinguish accurate from inaccurate witnesses across the 42 cross-examination sessions. However, jurors in the leading-questions conditions were significantly more likely to believe accurate than inaccurate witnesses, whereas the reverse effect held for nonleading questions. Jurors' attributions of witness confidence were unrelated to witness accuracy, even though these attributions accounted for 50% of the variance in jurors' decisions to believe witnesses. The poor accuracy/confidence relationship among witnesses is discussed in relation to the research on probability calibration. (11 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Accuracy of confidence ratings associated with general knowledge and eyewitness memory.

The confidence–accuracy (C–A) relation for general knowledge (GK) and eyewitness memory (EM) was compared in both within- and between-Ss analyses. Researchers in the cognitive tradition tend to use within-Ss designs and to find moderately positive C–A relations, whereas those in the forensic tradition tend to use between-Ss designs and to find no relations. 80 Ss took part in 1 of 2 conditions, EM or GK. No difference between conditions was found on the within-Ss measure of the C–A relation, but there was differentiation with a between-Ss measure. There was a strong positive C–A correlation (r?=?.58, p?r?=?–.11, ns). One source of this difference may be the differing opportunities for calibration offered by the 2 kinds of memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The social psychology of eyewitness accuracy: Misleading questions and communicator expertise.

In two studies we examined the effect of questioner expertise on the error rates of subjects who were asked misleading versus unbiased questions. A total of 105 introductory psychology students watched a videotaped clip of a bank robbery and were then questioned about the crime. The questioner was represented to subjects as either highly knowledgeable or completely naive about the events the subject witnessed. One half of the subjects in each expertise condition were asked misleading questions, and the other half were asked unbiased questions. In the knowledgeable questioner conditions, misleading questions were associated with error rates significantly higher than those obtained with the unbiased questions (p?ns). These results indicate that misleading questions decrease witness accuracy when the questioner is assumed to be knowledgeable about the crime, but have no effect on accuracy when the questioner is assumed to be naive. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The tractability of eyewitness confidence and its implications for triers of fact.

A theft staged for 80 unsuspecting undergraduate eyewitnesses was followed by a picture lineup that did or did not contain the thief. In an attempt to see if eyewitness confidence is tractable after the identification, half of the eyewitnesses who identified the thief (accurate witnesses) and half who identified an innocent suspect (inaccurate witnesses) were briefed by a "prosecutor" who suggested they rehearse answers to potential questions that would be asked under cross-examination. Cross-examinations of 10 accurate briefed, 10 accurate nonbriefed, 9 inaccurate briefed, and 9 inaccurate nonbriefed witnesses were viewed by 152 "jurors" in groups of 4 Ss. Briefed eyewitnesses rated themselves as more confident that they had identified the thief than did nonbriefed witnesses. This increase was primarily due to inaccurate eyewitnesses' increasing their confidence, and the briefing manipulation served to eliminate the confidence–accuracy relationship. Jurors were significantly more likely to vote guilty in conditions in which the eyewitness had been briefed than in the nonbriefed conditions. It is argued that briefing eyewitnesses, although legal, simply serves to increase the eyewitnesses' confidence in their memory, not the accuracy of memory. (28 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Fast and confident: Postdicting eyewitness identification accuracy in a field study.

The combined postdictive value of postdecision confidence, decision time, and Remember-Know-Familiar (RKF) judgments as markers of identification accuracy was evaluated with 10 targets and 720 participants. In a pedestrian area, passers-by were asked for directions. Identifications were made from target-absent or target-present lineups. Fast (optimum time boundary at 6 seconds) and confident (optimum confidence boundary at 90%) witnesses were highly accurate, slow and nonconfident witnesses highly inaccurate. Although this combination of postdictors was clearly superior to using either postdictor by itself these combinations refer only to a subsample of choosers. Know answers were associated with higher identification performance than Familiar answers, with no difference between Remember and Know answers. The results of participants' post hoc decision time estimates paralleled those with measured decision times. To explore decision strategies of nonchoosers, three subgroups were formed according to their reasons given for rejecting the lineup. Nonchoosers indicating that the target had simply been absent made faster and more confident decisions than nonchoosers stating lack of confidence or lack of memory. There were no significant differences with regard to identification performance across nonchooser groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Expectancy shifts and the expectancy confidence hypothesis.

Explanations of differences in the size of expectancy changes following task outcomes are considered. The control perception hypothesis, the most frequently proposed explanation, is that small expectancy shifts occur when task outcomes are perceived to be externally (i.e., chance) controlled. An alternative explanation, the expectancy confidence hypothesis, is that small shifts occur when Ss are relatively confident of the accuracy of their expectations. Two experiments with 120 female undergraduates examined these positions. Exp I partially replicated the study of J. B. Rotter et al (1961), often cited as supporting the control perception hypothesis. Expectancy confidence was assessed, and as predicted by the expectancy confidence hypothesis, expectancy shifts were related negatively to expectancy confidence. Skill perceptions and levels of expectancy confidence were maniplated in Exp II, and their impact was assessed by several expectancy shift measures. Expectancy confidence influenced expectancy shifts as predicted for 4 of 5 measures, whereas skill perceptions did not significantly affect expectancy shifts on any measure. Expectancy confidence thus exerts a substantial impact on expectancy shifts. The relevance of the findings for a 3rd explanation of expectancy shifts, the causal stability hypothesis, is discussed. (24 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Eyewitness accuracy and confidence: Within- versus between-subjects correlations.

Previous researchers using between-subjects comparisons have found eyewitness confidence and accuracy to be only negligibly correlated. In this study, we examined the predictive power of confidence in within-subject terms. Ninety-six subjects answered, and made confidence ratings for, a series of questions about a crime they witnessed. The average between-subjects and within-subject accuracy–confidence correlations were comparably low: r?=?14 (pr?=?.17 (pr?=?-.09 within subjects), but more strongly with confidence (r?=?-.27 within subjects). This pattern was obtained for both between-subjects and within-subject comparisons. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Piaget's stage learning hypothesis revisited.

Found evidence to support the stage learning hypothesis of Piaget (1974) in a reanalysis of the B. Inhelder et al (1974) data. Data show that the initial level of development was a good indicator of the degree of learning attainable through training. Results may in part be due to the reduction of variance attributable to aggregating the experiments, as well as the use of a different model to test the stage learning hypothesis. (French abstract) (13 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Witness confidence and witness accuracy: Assessing their forensic relation.

Jurors overbelieve eyewitnesses, have difficulty reliably differentiating accurate from inaccurate eyewitnesses, and are not adequately sensitive to aspects of witnessing and identification conditions. A major source of juror unreliability is reliance on witness confidence, a dubious indicator of eyewitness accuracy even when measured at the time an identification is made. Confidence appears to be influenced by postidentification factors such as repeated questioning, briefings in anticipation of cross-examination, and feedback about the behavior of other witnesses. Juror reliance on witness confidence appears to be unaffected by traditional safeguards such as cross-examination and judges' instructions in eyewitness cases. Expert psychological testimony on the factors that influence eyewitness memory, in contrast, appears to reduce juror reliance on confidence and enhance use of other factors known to affect memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effects of interpolated mugshot exposure on accuracy of eyewitness identification.

Four groups of 15 Ss (ages 20–65 yrs) observed a videotape of 3 men whom they were later asked to identify in a recognition test. Results demonstrate significant effects on confidence ratings of both target and nontarget stimuli through the interpolation of irrelevant face stimuli, but the pattern of results does not lend itself to a straightforward interpretation in terms of interference. (14 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Crime seriousness as a determinant of accuracy in eyewitness identification .

65 university students witnessed a staged theft in which either an expensive object (high seriousness) or an inexpensive object (low seriousness) was stolen, and Ss either had prior knowledge of the object's value or learned of its value only after the theft. When witnesses had prior knowledge of the object's value, accurate identification of the thief was more likely when the theft was of high rather than of low seriousness. When knowledge of the crime's seriousness was gained after the theft, seriousness did not affect identification accuracy. Results suggest that the effect of perceived seriousness on accuracy is mediated by processes that operate during rather than after the viewing interval, processes such as selective attention and encoding. The study also found that certainty of choice in the identification task was unrelated to accuracy of choice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)