Prediction and assessment of bark beetle-induced mortality of lodgepole pine using estimates of stand vigor derived from remotely sensed data

The current outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) in British Columbia (BC), Canada, has led forest managers to consider thinning as a means of decreasing residual tree susceptibility to attack and subsequent mortality. Previous research indicates that susceptibility to mountain pine beetle is a function of a tree's physiological vigor and the intensity of attack. Trees able to produce ≥ 80 g (g) of wood per m² of projected leaf area annually are highly resistant, because they are able to shift resource allocation locally from wood to resin production to isolate blue-stain fungi introduced by attacking beetles. Typically, the leaf area of susceptible stands must be reduced by two-thirds to permit most residual trees to increase their vigor to a safe level. We evaluate whether Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery (30 × 30 m) provides a means to assess the maximum leaf area index (LAI) of unthinned stands and the extent that thinning reduces LAI. The extent that residual trees in thinned stands may have increased their resistance to attack from mountain pine beetle is predicted from a non-linear relationship between % maximum LAI and mean tree vigor.We investigated the merits of this approach in the vicinity of Parson, British Columbia using four stands of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.), two of which were heavily thinned (stands were spaced to 4 and 5 m, approximately 70% reduction in stand density). An analysis of archived Landsat TM imagery indicated that prior to thinning in 1993, all four stands had full canopy, which, for mature stands, would translate to mean tree vigor between 40 and 70 g of annual wood production per m² of foliage. By 1995, based on estimated changes in LAI derived from a second data of Landsat TM imagery, stand vigor in the unthinned stands had not changed; however, in the thinned stands, a nearly two third reduction in LAI resulted in a predicted increase in vigor to between 100 and 160 g wood m^− 2 of leaf area. A subsequent assessment in 2001 indicated that stand vigor remained higher in the thinned stands relative to the control stands. Following an infestation of mountain pine beetle in the study area in 2002, mortality data indicated that the thinned stands experienced no mortality relative to the unthinned stands which experienced 5.5% mortality in the initial years of the attack. In the larger area surrounding the study site, a general relationship was found between predicted stand vigor and mountain pine beetle-induced mortality as estimated from aerial overview survey data (r² = 0.43, p < 0.01).     

Integrating remotely sensed and ancillary data sources to characterize a mountain pine beetle infestation

The ongoing mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, has reached epidemic proportions, with the beetle expanding into geographic areas outside its known biological range. In this study, estimates of red attack damage were derived from a logistic regression model using multi-date Landsat imagery, and ancillary information including terrain attributes and solar radiation. The model estimates were found to be approximately 70% accurate using an independent set of beetle survey data as validation. This probability surface of red attack damage, along with forest inventory and terrain attributes, were used as inputs to decision tree analyses, in order to identify which forest attributes were associated with stands that had a greater likelihood of mountain pine beetle red attack damage. Three distinct decision tree models were developed, with each having a different set of input variables. The results of the analyses indicated that site index (an indicator of the quality of a forest site) and slope were the principal discriminators of the current mountain pine beetle attack, followed by basal area of pine dominated stands, and to a lesser extent, crown closure and stem density. The results suggest that indicators of site quality, particularly site index, could be a complementary addition to existing stand susceptibility rating models.     

Assessment of QuickBird high spatial resolution imagery to detect red attack damage due to mountain pine beetle infestation

High spatial resolution remotely sensed data has the potential to complement existing forest health programs for both strategic planning over large areas, as well as for detailed and precise identification of tree crowns subject to stress and infestation. The area impacted by the current mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, has increased 40-fold over the previous 5 years, with approximately 8.5 million ha of forest infested in 2005. As a result of the spatial extent and intensity of the outbreak, new technologies are being assessed to help detect, map, and monitor the damage caused by the beetle, and to inform mitigation of future beetle outbreaks. In this paper, we evaluate the capacity of high spatial resolution QuickBird multi-spectral imagery to detect mountain pine beetle red attack damage. ANOVA testing of individual spectral bands, as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a ratio of red to green reflectance (Red-Green Index or RGI), indicated that the RGI was the most successful (p < 0.001) at separating non-attack crowns from red attack crowns. Based on this result, the RGI was subsequently used to develop a binary classification of red attack and non-attack pixels. The total number of QuickBird pixels classified as having red attack damage within a 50 m buffer of a known forest health survey point were compared to the number of red attack trees recorded at the time of the forest health survey. The relationship between the number of red attack pixels and observed red attack crowns was assessed using independent validation data and was found to be significant (r² = 0.48, p < 0.001, standard error = 2.8 crowns). A comparison of the number of QuickBird pixels classified as red attack, and a broader scale index of mountain pine beetle red attack damage (Enhanced Wetness Difference Index, calculated from a time series of Landsat imagery), was significant (r² = 0.61, p < 0.001, standard error = 1.3 crowns). These results suggest that high spatial resolution imagery, in particular QuickBird satellite imagery, has a valuable role to play in identifying tree crowns with red attack damage. This information could subsequently be used to augment existing detailed forest health surveys, calibrate synoptic estimates of red attack damage generated from overview surveys and/or coarse scale remotely sensed data, and facilitate the generation of value-added information products, such as estimates of timber volume impacts at the forest stand level.     

Spectral retrogression and insect damage in lodgepole pine successional forests

A conceptual model for the spectral-temporal development of a forest stand was developed and tested. The model hypothesizes that reflectance changes for a regenerating forest stand follow a defined path in spectral brightnessgreenness space. Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery and field data collected from the lodgepole pine forest of Yellowstone National Park, USA provided an empirical means by which the theoretical model was tested. Recently disturbed stands are spectrally bright and low in greenness. As a stand progresses to midsuccessional stages, brightness decreases, but greenness of the stand is highly variable. Sites affected by the mountain pine beetle regress back along the brightness-greenness vector as the overstory is progressively thinned by the beetle infestation.     

A Landsat time series approach to characterize bark beetle and defoliator impacts on tree mortality and surface fuels in conifer forests

Insects are important forest disturbance agents, and mapping their effects on tree mortality and surface fuels represents a critical research challenge. Although various remote sensing approaches have been developed to monitor insect impacts, most studies have focused on single insect agents or single locations and have not related observed changes to ground-based measurements. This study presents a remote sensing framework to (1) characterize spectral trajectories associated with insect activity of varying duration and severity and (2) relate those trajectories to ground-based measurements of tree mortality and surface fuels in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. We leverage a Landsat time series change detection algorithm (LandTrendr), annual forest health aerial detection surveys (ADS), and field measurements to investigate two study landscapes broadly applicable to conifer forests and dominant insect agents of western North America. We distributed 38 plots across multiple forest types (ranging from mesic mixed-conifer to xeric lodgepole pine) and insect agents (defoliator [western spruce budworm] and bark beetle [mountain pine beetle]). Insect effects were evident in the Landsat time series as combinations of both short- and long-duration changes in the Normalized Burn Ratio spectral index. Western spruce budworm trajectories appeared to show a consistent temporal evolution of long-duration spectral decline (loss of vegetation) followed by recovery, whereas mountain pine beetle plots exhibited both short- and long-duration spectral declines and variable recovery rates. Although temporally variable, insect-affected stands generally conformed to four spectral trajectories: short-duration decline then recovery, short- then long-duration decline, long-duration decline, long-duration decline then recovery. When comparing remote sensing data with field measurements of insect impacts, we found that spectral changes were related to cover-based estimates (tree basal area mortality [R²_adj = 0.40, F_1,34 = 24.76, P < 0.0001] and down coarse woody detritus [R²_adj = 0.29, F_1,32 = 14.72, P = 0.0006]). In contrast, ADS changes were related to count-based estimates (e.g., ADS mortality from mountain pine beetle positively correlated with ground-based counts [R²_adj = 0.37, F_1,22 = 14.71, P = 0.0009]). Fine woody detritus and forest floor depth were not well correlated with Landsat- or aerial survey-based change metrics. By characterizing several distinct temporal manifestations of insect activity in conifer forests, this study demonstrates the utility of insect mapping methods that capture a wide range of spectral trajectories. This study also confirms the key role that satellite imagery can play in understanding the interactions among insects, fuels, and wildfire.     

Modeling mountain pine beetle infestation with an agent-based approach at two spatial scales

Extensive outbreaks of tree-killing insects have been occurring in many parts of North America, including the province of British Columbia, raising concerns about the health of pine forest ecosystems. The dynamic phenomenon of mountain pine beetle (MPB), Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, infestation outbreaks is an inherent spatial and temporal complex process. Agent-based modeling (ABM) facilitates simulating spatial interactions that describe the ecological context in which insect populations spread. The main objective of this study was to develop a model of the MPB forest infestation dynamics. This spatially explicit model integrates geographic information systems (GISs) and ABM to simulate MPB outbreaks at the tree and landscape scales, providing spatiotemporal information of annual distribution and patterns of MPB outbreaks. This prototype was implemented with geographic data generated from aerial overview surveys carried out by the B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, for the study site in Kamloops, Canada. Results show the direct influence that vigorous forest stands and trees have on higher breeding rates, and therefore in the MPB population increment at a tree scale, in a period of 5 years. The simulation results at the landscape level help to determine the most probable locations of future MPB infestations in a time frame of 10 years.     

Sensitivity of the thematic mapper enhanced wetness difference index to detect mountain pine beetle red-attack damage

Red-attack damage caused by mountain pine beetle (Dentroctonus ponderosa Hopkins) infestation in stands of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the Prince George Forest Region of British Columbia was examined using multitemporal Landsat-7 ETM+ imagery acquired in 1999, 2000, and 2001. The image data were geometrically and atmospherically corrected, and processed using the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT) to obtain wetness indices. The final steps included pixel subtraction, enhancement, and thresholding of the wetness index differences. The resulting enhanced wetness difference index (EWDI) was used to interpret spectral patterns in stands with confirmed (through aerial survey) red-attack damage in 2001, and these EWDI patterns were compared to the patterns of reflectance in normal-colour composites. We stratified the aerial survey dataset into two levels and used the EWDI to discriminate classes of 10-29 red-attack trees and 30-50 red-attack trees, and a sample of healthy forest collected from inventory data. Classification accuracy of red-attack damage based on the EWDI ranged from 67% to 78% correct.     

Continuous wavelet analysis for the detection of green attack damage due to mountain pine beetle infestation

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is the most destructive insect infesting mature pine forests in North America and has devastated millions of hectares of forest in western Canada. Past studies have demonstrated the use of multispectral imagery for remote identification and mapping of visible or red attack damage in forests. This study aims to detect pre-visual or green attack damage in lodgepole pine needles by means of hyperspectral measurements, particularly via continuous wavelet analysis. Field measurements of lodgepole pine stands were conducted at two sites located northwest of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. In June and August of 2007, reflectance spectra (350-2500 nm) were collected for 16 pairs of trees. Each of the 16 tree pairs included one control tree (healthy), and one stressed tree (girdled to simulate the effects of beetle infestation). In addition, during the period of June through October 2008, spectra were collected from 15 pairs of control- and beetle-infested trees. Spectra derived from these 31 tree pairs were subjected to a continuous wavelet transform, generating a scalogram that compiles the wavelet power as a function of wavelength location and scale of decomposition. Linear relationships were then explored between the wavelet scalograms and chemical properties or class labels (control and non-control) of the sample populations in order to isolate the most useful distinguishing spectral features that related to infested or girdled trees vs. control trees.A deficit in water content is observed in infested trees while an additional deficit in chlorophyll content is seen for girdled trees. The measurable water deficit of infested and girdled tree samples was detectable from the wavelet analysis of the reflectance spectra providing a novel method for the detection of green attack. The spectral features distinguishing control and infested trees are predominantly located between 950 and 1390 nm from scales 1 to 8. Of those, five features between 1318 to 1322 nm at scale 7 are consistently found in the July and August 2008 datasets. These features are located at longer wavelengths than those investigated in previous studies (below 1100 nm) and provide new insights into the potential remote detection of green attack. Spectral features that distinguish control and girdled trees were mostly observed between 1550 and 2370 nm from scales 1 to 5. The differing response of girdled and infested trees appears to indicate that the girdling process does not provide a perfect simulation of the effects caused by beetle infestation.It remains to be determined if the location of the 1318-1322 nm features, near the edge of a strong atmospheric water absorption band, will be sufficiently separable for use in airborne detection of green attack. A plot comparing needle water content and wavelet power at 1320 nm reveals considerable overlap between data derived from both infested and control samples, though the groups are statistically separable. This obstacle may preclude a high accuracy separation of healthy and infected single individuals, but establishing threshold identification levels may provide an economical, efficient and expeditious method for discriminating between healthy and infested tree populations.     

Detection of foliage conditions and disturbance from multi-angular high spectral resolution remote sensing

Disturbance of forest ecosystems, an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, has become a focus of research over recent years, as global warming is about to increase the frequency and severity of natural disturbance events. Remote sensing offers unique opportunities for detection of forest disturbance at multiple scales; however, spatially and temporally continuous mapping of non-stand replacing disturbance remains challenging. First, most high spatial resolution satellite sensors have relatively broad spectral ranges with bandwidths unsuitable for detection of subtle, stress induced, features in canopy reflectance. Second, directional and background reflectance effects, induced by the interactions between the sun-sensor geometry and the observed canopy surface, make up-scaling of empirically derived relationships between changes in spectral reflectance and vegetation conditions difficult. Using an automated tower based spectroradiometer, we analyse the interactions between canopy level reflectance and different stages of disturbance occurring in a mountain pine beetle infested lodgepole pine stand in northern interior British Columbia, Canada, during the 2007 growing season. Directional reflectance effects were modelled using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) acquired from high frequency multi-angular spectral observations. Key wavebands for observing changes in directionally corrected canopy spectra were identified using discriminant analysis and highly significant correlations between canopy reflectance and field measured disturbance levels were found for several broad and narrow waveband vegetation indices (for instance, r²_NDVI = 0.90; r²_CHL3 = 0.85; p < 0.05). Results indicate that multi-angular observations are useful for extraction of disturbance related changes in canopy reflectance, in particular the temporally and spectrally dense data detected changes in chlorophyll content well. This study will help guide and inform future efforts to map forest health conditions at landscape and over increasingly coarse scales.     

Comparison of time series tasseled cap wetness and the normalized difference moisture index in detecting forest disturbances

Vegetation indices and transformations have been used extensively in forest change detection studies. In this study, we processed multitemporal normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) and tasseled cap wetness (TCW) data sets and compared their statistical relationships and relative efficiencies in detecting forest disturbances associated with forest type and harvest intensity at five, two and one year Landsat acquisition intervals. The NDMI and TCW were highly correlated (>0.95 r²) for all five image dates. There was no significant difference between TCW and NDMI for detecting forest disturbance. Using either a NDMI or TCW image differencing method, when Landsat image acquisitions were 5 years apart, clear cuts could be detected with nearly equal accuracy compared to images collected 2 years apart. Partial cuts had much higher commission and omission errors compared to clear cut. Both methods had 7-8% higher commission and 12-22% higher omission error to detect hardwood disturbance when it occurred in the first year of the 2-year interval (as compared to 1-year interval). Softwood and hardwood change detection errors were slightly higher at 2-year Landsat acquisition intervals compared to 1-year interval. For images acquired 1 and 2 years apart, NDMI forest disturbance commission and omission errors were slightly lower than TCW. The NDMI can be calculated using any sensor that has near-infrared and shortwave bands and is at least as accurate as TCW for detecting forest type and intensity disturbance in biomes similar to the Maine forest, particularly when Landsat images are acquired less than 2 years apart. Where partial cutting is the most dominant harvesting system as is currently the case in northern Maine, we recommend images collected every year to minimize (particularly omission) errors. However, where clear cuts or nearly complete canopy removal occurs, Landsat intervals of up to 5 years may be nearly as accurate in detecting forest change as 1 or 2 year intervals.     

Estimating the reduction in gross primary production due to mountain pine beetle infestation using satellite observations

The impact of disturbance on national and global forest carbon budgets is considered large enough to shift forests into acting as carbon sinks or sources. While the role of fire on the landscape and its impact is relatively well understood, the role of insect infestation is less well known. The ongoing outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in western Canada is impacting over 9.2 million ha of forest as of 2006. Using satellite-derived (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) annual estimates of gross primary production (P _g), in combination with survey data indicating infestation extent and severity, the reduction in P _g attributable to this major disturbance is estimated. Results indicate that the infestation between 2002 and 2005 resulted in a reduction in the rate of carbon accumulation of between 60–100 g C m^?2 year^?1, which corresponds well with previously modelled values, reducing the pre-outbreak P _g of the stands by approximately 15–20%, with productivity losses generally proportional to the locally accumulated severity of insect activity. Continued monitoring using MODIS based approaches may offer ongoing opportunities to estimate the landscape-level rates of recovery from the outbreak.     

Integrating high resolution remote sensing,GIS and fuzzy set theory for identifying susceptibility areas of forest insect infestations

The use of fuzzy set theory has become common in remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) applications to deal with issues surrounding the uncertainty of geospatial datasets. The objective of this study is to develop a model that integrates the concept of fuzzy set theory with remote sensing and GIS in order to produce susceptibility maps of insect infestations in forest landscapes. Fuzzy set theory was applied to information extracted from multiple‐year high resolution remote sensing data and integrated in a raster‐based GIS to create a map indicating the spatial variation of insect susceptibility in a landscape. Variable‐specific fuzzy membership functions were developed based on expert knowledge and existing data, and integrated through a semantic import model. The results from a case study on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) illustrate that the model provides a method to successfully estimate areas of varying susceptibility to insect infestation from high resolution remote sensing images. It was concluded that fuzzy sets are an adequate method for dealing with uncertainty in defining susceptibility variables. The susceptibility maps can be utilized for guiding management decisions based on the spatial aspects of insect–host relationships.     

Comparison of two types of forest disturbance using multitemporal Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery and field vegetation data

Forest disturbances influence many landscape processes, including changes in microclimate, hydrology, and soil erosion. We analyzed the spectral response and temporal progress of two types of disturbances of spruce forest (bark beetle outbreak and clear-cuts) in the central part of Šumava Mountains at the border between the Czech Republic and Germany, Central Europe. The bark beetle (Ips typographus [L.]) outbreak in this region in the last 20 years resulted in regional-scale spruce forest decay. Clear-cutting was done here to prevent further bark-beetle propagation in the buffer zones.The aim of the study is to identify the differences in spectral response between the two types of forest disturbances and their temporal dynamics. General trends were analyzed throughout the study area, with sampled disturbance areas selected to assess the relationship between field vegetation data and their spectral response. Thirteen Landsat TM/ETM+ scenes from 1985 to 2007 were used for the assessment. The following spectral indices were estimated: NDMI, Tasseled Cap (Brightness, Greenness, Wetness), DI, and DI′. The DI′, Wetness, and Brightness indices show the highest sensitivity to forest disturbance for both disturbance types (clear-cuts and bark beetle outbreak). The multitemporal analysis distinguished three different stages of development. The highest spectral differences between the clear-cuts and the bark beetle disturbances were found in the period between 1996 and 2004 with increased levels of forest disturbance (repeated measures ANOVA, Scheffé post hoc test; p ≤ 0.05). Clear-cut disturbance resulted in significantly higher spectral differences from the original forest and occurred as a more discrete event in comparison to bark beetle outbreak.     

Curve fitting of time-series Landsat imagery for characterizing a mountain pine beetle infestation

In this technical note we present a new technique using mixed linear models for characterizing a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestation from multiyear satellite imagery. The main benefit of our approach is an ability to determine the statistical significance of each annual spectral change. Knowledge of the annual spectral change characteristics can then be used to statistically determine if a disturbance event has occurred, the timing of a given disturbance event, as well as to provide information for clustering fitted multitemporal reflectance curves (i.e. spectral trajectories) with a common shape. The spatial clustering of spectral trajectories provides insights into the nature of the disturbance and recovery imposed by infestation over a 14-year period.     

Multi-temporal analysis of high spatial resolution imagery for disturbance monitoring

Mountain pine beetle red attack damage has been successfully detected and mapped using single-date high spatial resolution (< 4 m) satellite multi-spectral data. Forest managers; however, need to monitor locations for changes in beetle populations over time. Specifically, counts of individual trees attacked in successive years provide an indication of beetle population growth and dynamics. Surveys are typically used to estimate the ratio of green (current) attack trees to red (previous) attack trees or G:R. In this study, we estimate average stand-level G:R using a time-series of QuickBird multi-spectral and panchromatic satellite data, combined with field data for three forested stands near Merritt, British Columbia, Canada. Using a ratio of QuickBird red to green wavelengths (Red-Green Index or RGI), the change in RGI (ΔRGI) in successive image pairs is used to estimate red attack damage in 2004, 2005, and 2006, with true positive accuracies ranging from 89 to 93%. To overcome issues associated with differing viewing geometry and illumination angles that impair tracking of individual trees through time, segments are generated from the QuickBird multi-spectral data to identify small groups of trees. These segments then serve as the vehicle for monitoring changes in red attack damage over time. A local maxima filter is applied to the panchromatic data to estimate stem counts, thereby allowing an indication of the total stand population at risk of attack. By combining the red attack damage estimates with the local maxima stem counts, predictions are made of the number of attacked trees in a given year. Backcasting the current year's red attack damaged trees as the previous year's green attack facilitates the estimation of an average stand G:R. In this study area, these retrospective G:R values closely match those generated from field surveys. The results of this study indicate that a monitoring program using a time series of high spatial resolution remotely sensed data (multi-spectral and panchromatic) over select sample locations, could be used to estimate G:R over large areas, facilitating landscape level management strategies and/or providing a mechanism for assessing the efficacy of previously implemented strategies.     

Assessing canopy mortality during a mountain pine beetle outbreak using GeoEye-1 high spatial resolution satellite data

Continuing, severe outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) across western North America have resulted in widespread mortality of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta). Multiple studies have used high spatial resolution satellite data to map areas of beetle kill; these studies have largely focused on mapping red canopy cover associated with recent tree mortality and have not examined mapping gray canopy cover that occurs after red needles have dropped. The work presented here examines the use of newly available GeoEye-1 data for mapping both red and gray canopy area in southeastern Wyoming lodgepole pine forest. A 0.5 m spatial resolution, pan-sharpened GeoEye-1 image was used to classify areas of green, red, and gray canopy cover. Reference data were collected at twelve 500 m² field plots. Shadow-normalized green, red, and gray canopy area from classified GeoEye-1 data closely agreed with field-estimated green, red, and gray canopy area. Mean absolute error in canopy cover for the twelve sample plots was 8.3% for the green class, 5.4% for the red class, and 7.2% for the gray class. When all twelve plots were aggregated, remotely sensed estimates of green, red, and gray cover were within 1.7% of the field-estimated cover. Our results demonstrate that high spatial resolution spaceborne multispectral data are a promising tool for mapping canopy mortality caused by mountain pine beetle outbreaks.     

Landsat TM/ETM+ and tree-ring based assessment of spatiotemporal patterns of the autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) in northernmost Fennoscandia

We used fine-spatial resolution remotely sensed data combined with tree-ring parameters in order to assess and reconstruct disturbances in mountain birch (Betula pubescens) forests caused by Epirrita autumnata (autumnal moth). Research was conducted in the area of Lake Torneträsk in northern Sweden where we utilized five proxy parameters to detect insect outbreak events over the 19th and 20th centuries. Digital change detection was applied on three pairs of multi-temporal NDVI images from Landsat TM/ETM+ to detect significant reductions in the photosynthetic activity of forested areas during disturbed growing seasons. An image segmentation gap-fill procedure was developed in order to compensate missing scan lines in Landsat ETM+ “SLC-off” images. To account for a potential dependence of local outbreak levels on elevation, a digital elevation model was included in the defoliation recognition process. The resulting damage distribution map allowed for the assessment of outbreak intensity and distribution at the stand level and was combined with tree-ring data and historical documents to produce a multi-evidence outbreak detection. Defoliation events in the tree-ring data were recognized as significant deviations from temperature related growth.Our outbreak detection scheme allowed for the reconstruction of nine major insect outbreaks over the past two centuries. The reconstruction proved reliable but only robust for severe defoliation events. Low-intensity incidents were not captured.     

Cross-sensor change detection over a forested landscape: Options to enable continuity of medium spatial resolution measures

Landsat data have been widely used for change detection studies of forest ecosystems. Technical issues related to the longevity and quality of the Landsat-5 and -7 instruments prompted this investigation into how data from other sensors may be integrated with the existing Landsat image archive. Change maps indicating the location and extent of stand replacing disturbances occurring between 1999 and 2004 were developed using a rank-order change detection approach. The near-infrared (NIR) band from an image representing initial stand conditions (T1: Landsat-7 ETM+), and the NIR band of images acquired on subsequent dates and with different sensors (T2: ASTER, SPOT-4, and Landsat-5 TM) were selected, essentially acting as three different T2 images. Pair-wise comparisons between the T1 image and each of the T2 images required the pixel values to be sorted, ranked, and differenced; a threshold was then applied to the difference values to identify the stand replacing disturbances. The rank-order change detection approach precluded the need for an additional image normalization process. When compared to a manually interpreted map of change events, the output from the ASTER, SPOT-4, and Landsat-5 TM data were all equally effective in identifying all of the stand replacing disturbances that occurred between 1999 and the year of T2 image acquisition, and errors of commission were minimal. Important logistical limitations to cross-sensor change do exist however and include the lack of spatially or temporally extensive image archives for sensors other than Landsat, incompatible image footprints, and data cost and policy. This rank-order change detection approach is suitable for applications involving multi-temporal datasets where problems may exist due to image normalization, cross-sensor radiometric calibration, or unavailability of a desired sensor type.     

Forest structure without ground data: Adaptive Full-Blind Multiple Forward-Mode reflectance model inversion in a mountain pine beetle damaged forest

A new approach for using canopy reflectance models (CRMs) is presented that requires no field data or knowledge about the study area or imagery. Multiple Forward-Mode Adaptive Full-Blind (MFM-AFB) modelling provides forest biophysical structural information (BSI), and can also be used for classification and spectral mixture analysis at sub-pixel scales without user-specified model inputs, training data or endmember spectra, as these are instead automatically derived. In an example application using 2007 Landsat imagery of forest damaged by a mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic in British Columbia, Canada, overall BSI accuracy was within ±1000 stems ha^–1 for stand density, ±0.5 m for crown radius and ±1 m tree height for healthy and MPB stands. MFM-AFB software is suitable for regional, multi-temporal and unknown imagery and areas. By not requiring user-specified a priori model inputs to infer BSI, the MFM-AFB approach may help enable mainstream use of diverse and advanced CRMs for image analysis.     

Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to derive trajectories of aboveground forest biomass for study locations in Arizona and Minnesota. We compared three statistical techniques (Reduced Major Axis regression, Gradient Nearest Neighbor imputation, and Random Forests regression trees) for modeling biomass to better understand how the choice of model type affected predictions of biomass dynamics. Models from each technique were applied across the 20+ year Landsat time-series to derive biomass trajectories, to which a curve-fitting algorithm was applied to leverage the temporal information contained within the time-series itself and to minimize error associated with exogenous effects such as biomass measurements, phenology, sun angle, and other sources. The effect of curve-fitting was an improvement in predictions of biomass change when validated against observed biomass change from repeat FIA inventories. Maps of biomass dynamics were integrated with maps depicting the location and timing of forest disturbance and regrowth to assess the biomass consequences of these processes over large areas and long time frames. The application of these techniques to a large sample of Landsat scenes across North America will facilitate spatial and temporal estimation of biomass dynamics associated with forest disturbance and regrowth, and aid in national-level estimates of biomass change in support of the North American Carbon Program.