基于LEAP模型的广州交通领域能耗及空气污染物排放分析

基于长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型,结合情景分析法,模拟广州交通领域未来的能耗及CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2等主要空气污染物排放趋势,分析广州交通领域的节能及空气污染物排放控制策略.结果表明:综合情景下,到2035年,广州交通领域将较基准情景节能23.06％,CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2分别减...     

Peak CO2 emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries: a case study of Dezhou city in China

This paper studies the pathways of peaking CO₂ emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing a bottom-up sector analysis model and considering future economic growth, the adjustment of the industrial structure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO₂ mitigation scenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at 25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growth versus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the final energy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versus peak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energy consumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) and decrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively, compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO₂ emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), and subsequently decrease gradually in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014, and 60 MtCO₂ will be emitted in 2030. Active policies including restructuring the economy, improving energy efficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low-carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou city peaked CO₂ emission as early as possible.     

广东能源消费碳排放趋势与前景展望

能源消费是人类活动排放CO₂等温室气体的主要来源,碳减排已成为我国能源发展的一个重要约束因素。2012年全世界能源消费排放3.173 4×1010 t CO₂,中国能源消费排放的CO₂已占世界总排放量的26.0%。2012年全世界人均CO₂排放量4 510 kg,而中国人均CO₂排放量达到了6 093 kg。同年广东省人均CO₂排放量为5 224 kg,高于世界平均水平,低于全国平均水平。随着节能减排和应对气候变化工作的推进,广东的单位产值能耗水平逐年降低,能源结构不断改善,使得全省化石能源消费带来的CO₂排放量的增长势头得到抑制,2012年的排放量比2011年略有减少。按目前的发展趋势预测,到2020年,广东CO₂排放总量将达到1.606 2×108 t碳当量,比2012年增加9.69×106 t碳当量,人均CO₂排放量将达到5 287 kg,略高于2012年的5 224 kg。如果在“十三五”期间加快第三产业发展,则到2020年广东省化石能源消费总量将比2012年下降2.7%,CO₂排放总量将比2012年下降3.5%,人均CO₂排放量将由2012年的5 224 kg下降到2020年的4 795 kg,接近世界平均水平。     

交通运输业能耗现状及未来走势分析

低碳经济要求交通运输有效、合理地使用能源,优化配置各种交通工具,降低能耗。近年来,我国交通运输业能耗增长率总体上高于全社会能耗增长率,占全社会能耗比重基本维持在7.5%左右。各种运输方式的能耗主要集中在油耗上,2007年交通运输业汽煤柴3种油耗叠加在一起,占全社会油耗比重近70%。交通运输中电能利用效率较高,节电效果好于全社会,电耗占全社会电耗比重从2002年的2.07%降至2007年的1.63%,但占全国交通运输能耗比重仅10%左右,能耗结构不合理现象并未得到改善。2008年国家铁路单位运输工作量综合能耗比上年降低3.1%,2009年我国铁路电气化率达到41.9%,铁路能耗结构出现根本性改善和优化,开始转变为以电耗为主。公路运输油耗总量呈快速增长趋势,百吨公里油耗指标呈稳中略升态势,节能空间和潜能较大。水运(含港口)能耗2004年之前呈上升趋势,之后下降趋势明显,约占交通运输业总能耗的15%。民航每吨公里油耗从2002年的0.364kg降至2007年的0.309kg,航油消耗增长率基本维持在12%上下,有较为明显的减弱趋势。未来10年,我国交通运输能源消耗总量将进一步攀升,虽然能耗结构将得到一定程度优化,电耗比重会迅速增长,但由于公路能耗在交通运输能耗中占有绝对比重,故难以从根本上改善交通运输以油耗为主的结构特点。我国交通运输业应逐步调整到以铁路为主导的各种交通方式协调发展的模式上来,最大限度地降低运输业油耗在整个交通运输行业中的比重,"以电代油"。     

CO2 utilization options, part II: Assessment of dimethyl carbonate production

In this paper, the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions from dimethyl carbonate production by switching from the traditional phosgene-based production to a urea-based CO₂ utilization process is assessed. The total CO₂ emission for each process is estimated, including emissions related to the carbon content of the products, energy consumption in the production process, and energy consumption in the production processes of the required reactants. Implementation of the CO₂ utilization process probably will reduce total CO₂ emissions. However, in order to achieve substantially reduced CO₂ emissions, serious consideration must be given to the optimization and design of the CO₂ utilization process. Furthermore, the fuel-mix employed is one of the factors that influences the total CO₂ emission the most.     

Mitigation of carbon dioxide from Indonesia's energy system

In Indonesia, energy consumption (excluding non-commercial energy) increased from 328 MBOE in 1990 to 478 MBOE in 1995. As a consequence, energy sector CO₂ emissions increased from 150 million tons to over 200 million tons during the same period. The present rapid economic growth Indonesia is experiencing (7–8%) will continue in the future. Based on a BAU scenario, primary energy supply for the year 2020 will be 18,551 PJ, an increase of 5.9% annually from 1990 CO₂ from the energy system will increase from 150 Teragrams in 1990 to 1264 Teragram in 2020. The mitigation scenario would reduce total CO₂ emissions from the BAU scenario by 10% for the year 2000 and 20% by 2020. Some demand side management and energy conservation programs are already included in the BAU scenario. In the mitigation scenario, these programs are expanded, leading to lower final energy demand in the industrial and residential sectors.

Indonesia's total primary energy supply in 2020 is approximately 5% lower for the mitigation scenario than for the BAU scenario. In the BAU scenario, coal and oil have the same contribution (25%). In the mitigation scenario, natural gas and nonfossil fuels such as hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear have higher contributions.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

System analysis of hydrogen production from gasified black liquor

Hydrogen produced from renewable biofuel is both clean and CO₂ neutral. This paper evaluates energy and net CO₂ emissions consequences of integration of hydrogen production from gasified black liquor in a chemical pulp mill. A model of hydrogen production from gasified black liquor was developed and integration possibilities with the pulp mill's energy system were evaluated in order to maximize energy recovery. The potential hydrogen production is 59 000 tonnes per year if integrated with the KAM reference market pulp mill producing 630 000 Air dried tonnes (ADt) pulp/year. Changes of net CO₂ emissions associated with modified mill electric power balance, biofuel import and end usage of the produced hydrogen are presented and compared with other uses of gasified black liquor such as electricity production and methanol production. Hydrogen production will result in the greatest reduction of net CO₂ emissions and could reduce the Swedish CO₂ emissions by 8% if implemented in all chemical market pulp mills. The associated increases of biofuel and electric power consumption are 5% and 1.7%, respectively.     

Are HFC buses a feasible alternative for urban transportation in Paraguay?

Paraguay is very rich in hydropower and a net importer of fossil fuels. Besides, in Paraguay, the transportation sector counts for a big share of the total energy demand. So if this sector would be changed to clean fuel, imported oil dependence and air pollution will be reduced dramatically. This paper assesses the feasibility of HFC urban buses implementation in the transportation sector in Paraguay. In general, annual transportation cost for a fleet of 55 HFC urban buses is estimated in US$ 33,682,581 compared with US$ 40,612,741.84 for diesel urban buses, which indicates that this technology could be an economical and environmentally clean alternative to substitute diesel urban buses in the Paraguayan transportation sector. These results are strongly linked to the chosen boundary conditions, such as electricity price and availability, the electrolytic hydrogen demand and the basic electrolyser's management.     

A comparison of electricity and hydrogen production systems with CO2 capture and storage—Part B: Chain analysis of promising CCS options

Promising electricity and hydrogen production chains with CO₂ capture, transport and storage (CCS) and energy carrier transmission, distribution and end-use are analysed to assess (avoided) CO₂ emissions, energy production costs and CO₂ mitigation costs. For electricity chains, the performance is dominated by the impact of CO₂ capture, increasing electricity production costs with 10–40% up to 4.5–6.5 €ct/kWh. CO₂ transport and storage in depleted gas fields or aquifers typically add another 0.1–1 €ct/kWh for transport distances between 0 and 200 km. The impact of CCS on hydrogen costs is small. Production and supply costs range from circa 8 €/GJ for the minimal infrastructure variant in which hydrogen is delivered to CHP units, up to 20 €/GJ for supply to households. Hydrogen costs for the transport sector are between 14 and 16 €/GJ for advanced large-scale coal gasification units and reformers, and over 20 €/GJ for decentralised membrane reformers. Although the CO₂ price required to induce CCS in hydrogen production is low in comparison to most electricity production options, electricity production with CCS generally deserves preference as CO₂ mitigation option. Replacing natural gas or gasoline for hydrogen produced with CCS results in mitigation costs over 100 €/t CO₂, whereas CO₂ in the power sector could be reduced for costs below 60 €/t CO₂ avoided.     

Potential options to reduce GHG emissions in Venezuela

This paper presents a summary of the technologies and practices that could be implemented in Venezuela in order to contribute to both climate change mitigation and national development efforts. The mitigation analysis concentrates on options to reduce CO₂ emissions generated from the energy sector and land-use change.

From the mitigation options analyzed for the energy sector it was determined that the most effective are those in the transportation sector (switching to larger capacity vehicles, reduced private vehicle share, and switching fuels for public transportation from gasoline to natural gas), both in terms of contribution to emissions reduction and costs. Regarding the options for industry, boilers conversion from liquids to natural gas shows negative cost, but to a considerably lower extent that for the transportation sector. Efficiency improvements of natural gas boilers, which presents close to zero cost, is more effective in reducing emissions than boiler conversion. Increase in hydro power generation is the alternative with the highest total cost but it is very effective in reducing emissions.

From the mitigation options analyzed for land-use change, it was established that the forest sector has a considerable potential for reducing CO₂ emissions through the adoption of sustainable forest practices, especially by slowing the rate of forest loss and degradation. Maintenance of already existing biomass in natural forests should be the first priority of forest measures to reduce the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere. Forest protection and management of native forest represent the two options with the highest carbon conservation potential and the lowest carbon unit cost. Expansion of the forest cover through the development of intensive forest plantations also presents a high potential to offset carbon emissions in Venezuela.

An analysis of the barriers to mitigation options implementation shows that in the energy sector, low energy prices represent the main barrier to any mitigation program. Another important limitation to mitigation strategies implementation is the lack of institutional capacity and legal instruments for developing the mitigation measures. In the forest sector the primary causes of forest clearing in the country are not related to forest activities, so the definition of feasible mitigation options will depend upon a good understanding of other economic sectors and how they account for land-use change. Land tenure, rural poverty, political interests, and weak implementation of land-use planning instruments and environmental laws are considered to be the key limitations to any effort dealing with forest conservation. Land tenure, economic factors, and lack of incentives represent some of the most important barriers to the development of forest plantations and agroforestry systems in the country.     

Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi

Urban centers are the major consumers of energy, which is a major source of air pollution. Therefore, an insight into energy consumption and quantification of emissions from urban areas are extremely important for identifying impacts and finding solution to air pollution in urban centers. This paper applies the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system for modeling the total energy consumption and associated emissions from the household sector of Delhi. Energy consumption under different sets of policy and technology options are analyzed for a time span of 2001–2021 and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrous oxide (N₂O), total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are estimated. Different scenarios are generated to examine the level of pollution reduction achievable by application of various options. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is developed considering the time series trends of energy use in Delhi households. The fuel substitution (FS) scenario analyzes policies having potential to impact fuel switching and their implications towards reducing emissions. The energy conservation (EC) scenario focuses on efficiency improvement technologies and policies for energy-intensity reduction. An integrated (INT) scenario is also generated to assess the cumulative impact of the two alternate scenarios on energy consumption and direct emissions from household sectors of Delhi. Maximum reduction in energy consumption in households of Delhi is observed in the EC scenario, whereas, the FS scenario seems to be a viable option if the emission loadings are to be reduced.     

Analysis of Ontario's hydrogen economy demands from hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

The ‘Hydrogen Economy’ is a proposed system where hydrogen is produced from carbon dioxide free energy sources and is used as an alternative fuel for transportation. The utilization of hydrogen to power fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) can significantly decrease air pollutants and greenhouse gases emission from the transportation sector. In order to build the future hydrogen economy, there must be a significant development in the hydrogen infrastructure, and huge investments will be needed for the development of hydrogen production, storage, and distribution technologies. This paper focuses on the analysis of hydrogen demand from hydrogen FCVs in Ontario, Canada, and the related cost of hydrogen. Three potential hydrogen demand scenarios over a long period of time were projected to estimate hydrogen FCVs market penetration, and the costs associated with the hydrogen production, storage and distribution were also calculated. A sensitivity analysis was implemented to investigate the uncertainties of some parameters on the design of the future hydrogen infrastructure. It was found that the cost of hydrogen is very sensitive to electricity price, but other factors such as water price, energy efficiency of electrolysis, and plant life have insignificant impact on the total cost of hydrogen produced.     

Conceptual study of distributed CO2 capture and the sustainable carbon economy

Capture of carbon dioxide from distributed sources is often neglected as a viable solution to the global problem of CO₂ emissions management. Small scale power plants, including those applicable to the transportation sector, can be designed to capture their CO₂ exhaust stream, provided it is not heavily diluted with air. Liquefaction of carbon dioxide allows the captured CO₂ to be stored densely, with a minimal energetic penalty and space requirement, until it can be permanently sequestered. In this short-term solution, the energetic penalty for CO₂ capture can be further offset by exploiting novel energy conversion processes involving regeneration of the reaction product stream – a simple strategy that is not exploited in conventional systems. More importantly, in the long-term, as the renewable energy infrastructure is built up, the collected CO₂ can be recycled into synthetic carbon-based liquid fuels which act as energy carriers in the sustainable carbon economy.     

The role of energy efficiency in reducing Scottish and UK CO2 emissions

In 2003, the UK government launched its long-anticipated White Paper on energy, the centrepieces of which were ambitious targets for the production of electricity from renewable technologies and the long-term aspiration of a 60% reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In the White Paper it was recognised that such a dramatic reduction in emissions will require significant changes in the way in which energy is produced and used. However there has been a general failure to recognise the fact that in order to meet emissions targets, the UK will have to significantly reduce its energy consumption; this is not helped by the general misconception in the UK that reductions in CO₂ emissions will occur simply by increasing the production of electricity from renewable sources.

Specifically, this paper highlights the current trends in renewables deployment and energy demand, with a specific focus on Scotland, where the authorities have set more ambitious renewables targets than the rest of the UK. As will be demonstrated in this paper, without energy demand reduction, the deployment of renewables alone will not be sufficient to curtail growth in UK CO₂ emissions. This is illustrated using a case study of the Scottish housing sector; whilst this case study is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance. The paper will also address the magnitude of energy savings required to bring about a reduction in emissions and assesses the status of the policies and technologies that could help bring such reductions about.     

Alkaline falling-film fuel cell A breakthrough in technology and cost

The work described in this paper was oriented towards fuel cells for practical applications, but mainly presents data obtained using half-cells. The economic significance of these data is discussed, together with the technical concept of fuel cell power stations and for transportation applications. The proposed fuel cell with generate power at much lower costs than conventional power plants, and a zero-emission vehicle with fuel cells will operate at lower fuel cost than a car with an internal combustion engine. The simple falling-film process leads to high power densities (6 kW/l) and low cost. The details given are valid for the use of hydrogen produced from fossil energy sources. Concentrated CO₂, a byproduct of this technology can be stored in discussed oil and gas fields at a very low cost to avoid global warming. Thus, this ‘down-to-earth’ hydrogen technology is a free from CO₂ emissions as solar-hydrogen technology.     

Energy demand and CO2 emissions reduction options in Nigeria

This paper presents policy options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria. The policies were formulated based on a thorough analysis of Nigeria's current energy consumption patterns and the projected evolution of key parameters that drive Nigeria's energy demand — primarily the rate of industrialization, the demand for transportation services, and the expansion of Nigeria's population. The study shows that the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria are improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources.     

A prospective study of bioenergy use in Mexico

Bioenergy is one of the renewable energy sources that can readily replace fossil fuels, while helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable rural development. This paper analyses the feasibility of future scenarios based on moderate and high use of biofuels in the transportation and electricity generation sectors with the aim of determining their possible impact on the Mexican energy system. Similarly, it evaluates the efficient use of biofuels in the residential sector, particularly in the rural sub-sector. In this context, three scenarios are built within a time frame that goes from 2005 to 2030. In the base scenario, fossil fuels are assumed as the dominant source of energy, whereas in the two alternative scenarios moderate and high biofuel penetration diffusion curves are constructed and discussed on the basis of their technical and economical feasibility. Simulation results indicate that the use of ethanol, biodiesel and electricity obtained from primary biomass may account for 16.17% of the total energy consumed in the high scenario for all selected sectors. CO₂ emissions reduction—including the emissions saved from the reduction in the non-sustainable use of fuelwood in the rural residential sector—is equivalent to 87.44 million tons of CO₂ and would account for 17.84% of the CO₂ emitted by electricity supply and transportation sectors when the base case and the high scenario are compared by 2030.     

Hydrogen no longer a high cost solution to global warming: New ideas

This paper contains brief statements about three new low-cost methods of obtaining clean hydrogen in massive amounts.

In the first method, new technology for converting solar energy and water to hydrogen at a price of $2.50 for an amount of hydrogen equal in first law energy to that in a gallon of gasoline seems to follow from a company's announcement of their new technology, already working, in one fully industrialized plant, producing electricity at a price corresponding to that from coal.

In the second method, pure hydrogen (no accompanying CO₂) can be obtained from natural gas and heat. The cost would be a little less than that of the low-cost hydrogen from water decomposition (and avoid storage of hydrogen for the 18 h/day of zero solar light).

In the third method, CO₂ is extracted from the atmosphere and combined chemically with the low-cost hydrogen to produce methanol. On being used to produce heat or electricity (fuel cell), CO₂ is left over. However, the amount of CO₂, thus added to the atmosphere is just equivalent to the amount removed. The presence of low-cost hydrogen from water means that the resulting methanol will also be of low cost and be a cure for global warming without a radical change of distribution method.     

Hydrogen from natural gas without release of CO2 to the atmosphere

The “Hydrogen economy”, in which hydrogen will be a main carrier of energy from renewable sources, is a long term prospect. In the near and medium term increasing demand for hydrogen--also as an energy carrier in special niches--will probably be covered by hydrogen from fossil sources, mainly natural gas. This can be acceptable from an environment as well as an economical point of view, since hydrogen can be produced from natural gas at acceptable costs, without release of CO₂ to the atmosphere. There are two main options for this: (1) hydrogen from natural gas by conventional technology (e.g. steam reforming) including CO₂ sequestration; (2) high temperature pyrolysis of natural gas, yielding pure hydrogen and carbon black. Technologies for industrial scale realisation of these options have been developed and evaluated in Norway, which is a large producer and exporter of natural gas. The economy and market opportunities are discussed in the paper. It appears that renewable energy costs must come down considerably from present levels before hydrogen from renewables can compete with hydrogen from natural gas without release of CO₂ to the atmosphere.