Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

浅谈以电力为中心的绿色能源战略

能源发展要以电力为中心似乎是个老问题,我国从1985年开始,经“七五”、“八五”、“九五”、“十五”直到2020年,一直坚持“能源发展以电力为中心,煤炭为基础”,但在新形势下,重提“以电力为中心”就具有特殊意义.新形势下,不仅煤炭清洁利用要求把更多的煤炭转变成电力,而且可再生能源和新能源替代化石能源时,大部分也必须转换成电力,保护生态环境和应对气候变化也必须以电力为中心.我国自1985年提出能源工业的发展要以电力为中心以后,电力工业有了长足的发展,电力在全国的覆盖面大大提高,电气化程度快速上升.2010年我国电煤占煤炭消费量的比重、电力占一次能源消费量的比重、电能占终端能源消费量的比重,都比1985年提高了1-2倍.在大能源观的指导下,中国的绿色能源战略是:节能;解决煤烟污染,方法是煤炭利用要以电力为中心;发展天然气,用天然气替代发电以外的用煤,将替代下来的煤炭供发电用;发展水电和核电,对中国来说,水电、核电是能源工业以电力为中心的重要内容;开发新能源,新能源绝大多数需要转变成电力来使用,所以绿色能源战略要以电力为中心.我国要实现用低碳、无碳能源替代化石能源的第三次能源大转换,需要做好替代能源的选择;研究建立非化石能源的电力辅助服务设施;建立适应我国电力工业需要的智能电网;加强大规模储能设施的研究开发;加强用能设施的研究等各方面的工作.中国在没有完成两次能源大转换的落后条件下,要通过第三次能源大转换迎头赶上.     

Long term climate change mitigation goals under the nuclear phase out policy: The Swiss energy system transition

The Swiss electricity system is dominated by low-carbon hydro and nuclear generation. The Government's decision to phase-out nuclear energy exacerbates Switzerland's climate change mitigation goals. Response to this challenge requires systemic changes to the energy system, which is generally a long-term, uncertain and systemic process, affected by technology choices across the entire energy system. A comprehensive Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) with high temporal detail has been developed for the analysis of plausible low-carbon energy pathways focusing on uncertainties related to policy (climate change mitigation and acceptability of new centralised electricity generation) and international fuel prices. Increasing electrification of end-uses is seen across the scenarios, resulting in continuous growth in electricity demands. The electrification of heating and e-mobility substitute direct use of fossil fuels in end-use sectors and contribute to a significant carbon dioxide emission (CO₂) reduction. Centralised gas power plants and renewables become key source of electricity supply. Given the phaseout of nuclear generation, clear policy signals are required to ensure capacity is built to achieve a low-carbon energy system. At the same time, it is also essential to ensure consistency between the electricity sector and end-use energy policies. For the long-term carbon reduction target, some non-cost-effective conservation measures are important early in the period because they are available only at the time of building renovation.     

Concentrating solar thermal power as a viable alternative in China's electricity supply

Study of low-carbon and pollution renewable alternatives for China revealed that concentrating solar thermal (CST) electric power generation was underemphasized in China's renewable energy plan. The analysis shows the competitive viability of CST: (1) China has the key prerequisites to make CST power generation economical including high-quality insolation and appropriate land, (2) CST's proven history, scale, and dispatchability makes it a good utility-scale power option, especially in the economically underdeveloped Western regions, (3) while CST power is currently more expensive than coal-fired electricity on a nominal basis, when costs of externalities are accounted for, CST, at 11.4 US cents/kWh, can become 57% cheaper than scrubbed coal and 29% cheaper than nuclear power, (4) CST power continues dropping in cost due to economies of scale and technological improvements and can potentially realize a levelized electricity cost of around 4 cents/kWh within ten years, (5) it would significantly rise in competitiveness if and when China completes the extensive smart grid for connecting its solar-abundant western regions with the high-demand eastern regions, (6) CST has the potential to positively impact Western China's economy, but proper policy and deal structure must be in place to ensure that the local community shares the benefit.     

On generation-integrated energy storage

Generation-integrated energy storage (GIES) systems store energy at some point along the transformation between the primary energy form and electricity. Instances exist already in natural hydro power, biomass generation, wave power, and concentrated solar power. GIES systems have been proposed for wind, nuclear power and they arise naturally in photocatalysis systems that are in development. GIES systems can compare very favourably in both performance and total cost against equivalent non-integrated systems comprising both generation and storage. Despite this, they have not hitherto been recognised as a discrete class of systems. Consequently policy decisions affecting development or demonstration projects and policy approaches concerning low-carbon generation are not fully informed. This paper highlights that policy structures exist militating against the development and introduction of GIES systems-probably to the detriment of overall system good.     

我国新能源发电发展思路探析

我国新能源资源储量丰富。积极发展新能源发电,是我国调整能源结构、保护环境、应对气候变化、转变经济发展方式和实现可持续发展的战略选择。本文通过对我国新能源发电发展情况分析,提出我国新能源发电的指导思想及发展思路。     

核电在中国低碳发展中的地位与作用分析

发展核电在中国低碳发展中具有重要的战略意义,是优化能源结构,提高非化石能源比例的可靠保证,是满足能源需求,保障能源安全的战略选择。然而日本福岛核事故引发了国际社会对核电安全性的质疑,本文在通过对比核电与化石能源和非化石能源对环境的影响和安全性等基础上,论证发展核电在低碳发展中的战略地位和作用意义重大。     

A review on existing and future energy sources for electrical power generation in Malaysia

As the electricity demand is affected by population growth, Malaysia towards an industrialized nation is considering the options for future energy sources for its power generation. Besides the conventional four-fuel mix, the five-fuel mix strategy under several national policies are introduced to diversify and expanding the resources to incorporate renewable energy and nuclear. In view of Malaysia will become a net energy importer by 2020, the increase in alternative energy shares at least will provide stable energy security, more economical and greener environment. In this paper, present and future energy sources are discussed to emphasis on the constraints and barriers facing Malaysia towards energy security and sustainability. Several preferences on future energy sources are under serious consideration where renewable energy (RE) is becoming one of the popular choices as Malaysia recognizes the potential of RE as sustainable and greener option.     

中国核电发展战略研究

中国能源资源品种丰富,人均占有量较少;能源资源结构不尽合理;能源资源分布与生产力布局不平衡。核电作为清洁能源,其基本特性决定了在应对能源挑战中有能力发挥无可替代的重要作用,我国在现阶段发展核电是调整能源布局的有效途径。中国核电已形成规模化批量化发展格局。二代改进型压水堆核电站随着技术的发展和运行经验的反馈．逐步引入新的成熟技术,使核电站的安全性得到进一步的提高。更应积极消化吸收第三代核电技术,使其安全目标更高、技术更先进。加快开发快中子增殖堆核电站、构建核燃料循环体系．可以将铀资源的利用率由普通的热堆的不足1％。提高到60％～70％,从而有效防止铀资源枯竭的威胁。     

塔式熔盐太阳能光热发电技术

我国太阳能光热资源丰富,市场潜力巨大。通过对各种光热发电技术的特点及其在国内外发展现状的介绍,指出了塔式熔盐吸热加储热系统是未来国内最具发展前景的光热发电技术,并分析了该技术的特点和潜在运行风险。最后,通过对比国际光热电价,指出未来国内光热发电成本下降空间很大。     

江西核电与鄱阳湖生态经济区建设

"十一五"期间国家确立了积极发展核电的战略方针,这也为江西省的核电发展提供了契机。目前江西几个核电厂址的前期工作已陆续展开,且均在环鄱阳湖生态经济区。江西省一次能源相对匮乏,仅占华中地区的3.3%,水能资源理论蕴藏量和煤炭资源储量仅占全国的0.98%和0.137%,只有大力发展核电等清洁能源。核电项目投产可提高电力供应水平,也可对各个产业的产出起到推动作用,从而促进江西整体经济的发展。国务院已将鄱阳湖生态经济区建设提升为国家战略,核电将为该区域乃至全省的低碳经济发展,以及江西在中部地区的绿色崛起提供强有力的能源保障。江西省水系较发达,大小水库近万座,核电取水排水条件优越。省内交通运输条件能满足核电运输要求,可供核电选址的地域较广,人口分布也有利于核电选址。此外,江西是我国重要的铀资源基地,铀资源储量和开采量占全国的1/3和1/2,这对江西发展核电极为有利。建议国家和各级地方政府应着重保护好江西省核电厂址资源。     

Basic concepts for designing renewable electricity support aiming at a full-scale transition by 2050

Renewable electricity supply is a crucial factor in the realization of a low-carbon energy economy. The understanding is growing that a full turn-over of the electricity sectors by 2050 is an elementary condition for avoiding global average temperature increase beyond 2 °C. This article adopts such full transition as Europe's target when designing renewable energy policy. An immediate corollary is that phasing-in unprecedented energy efficiency and renewable generation must be paralleled by phasing-out non-sustainable fossil fuel and nuclear power technologies. The double phasing programme assigns novel meaning to nearby target settings for renewable power as share of total power consumption. It requires organizing in the medium term EU-wide markets for green power, a highly demanding task in the present context of poorly functional markets in brown power. The EU Commission's 2007/2008 proposals of expanding tradable certificates markets were not based on solid analysis of past experiences and future necessities. The keystone of sound policies on renewable electricity development is a detailed scientific differentiation and qualification of renewable electricity sources and technologies, for measuring the huge diversity in the field. We provide but structuring concepts about such qualification, because implementation requires extensive research resources.     

中国太阳能资源评估及其利用效率研究进展与展望

围绕太阳能资源分布特征、资源潜力评估和太阳能利用效率的研究,从中国太阳能资源估算及其分布特征、中国太阳能资源潜力评估、太阳能利用方式及其太阳能利用效率研究、光伏发电效率评估、气候变化因子对光伏发电效率的影响等方面,归纳凝练了太阳能资源评估及其利用效率研究的主要成果。结合相关研究的国际前沿、热点问题和社会经济发展需求,剖析了研究中存在的不足和问题;提出加强气候变化背景下太阳能高辐射区光能资源变化新特征研究、深化太阳能高辐射区太阳能发电效率评估研究、深入开展气候变化因子对光伏发电效率的影响及其机制的研究、细化光能开发潜力评估、进一步完善光伏发电效率预测系统、推动绿色低碳社会经济发展等中国未来太阳能资源评估及利用研究需要重点关注的方向。     

对我国发展纯电动汽车的质疑与思考

近年来国家对纯电动汽车的扶持力度正在不断加大。然而纯电动汽车、混合动力汽车等以电力作燃料,并非真正意义上的新能源汽车。纯电动汽车所消耗的电力需要由发电厂提供,相当于以煤代油,其外部负效应表现在燃煤电厂的负效应上。燃油汽车和纯电动汽车每辆车每年的能耗折算成标煤分别为1.53t和1.6t,基本上相等,但燃油排放的二氧化碳比燃煤少,所以纯电动汽车并不是低碳汽车。用纯电动汽车替代燃油汽车,很可能是减少了石油进口,但却要增加煤炭进口,并不能从根本上提高我国能源的安全性。发展纯电动汽车需要大量投资,再加上环境污染,经济性很差。鉴于此,建议我国应重新定义新能源汽车,要真正利用新能源作为汽车的动力,寻找适合我国能源资源条件的真正的新能源汽车或替代能源汽车;中国在相当长的时间里节能减排还是主要依靠传统燃油汽车,在重视研发新能源汽车、研究替代燃油汽车的同时,应重视传统燃油汽车的节能降耗;控制汽车消费是最有效的节油措施;节能减排必须要从一次能源算起,我国电源结构以煤电为主,并不适宜发展纯电动汽车。中国要等到第一次和第二次能源大转换完成之后,当天然气、水电、核电在电源结构中占据主体地位时,纯电动汽车才会有广阔的发展前景。     

Chinese nuclear energy politics: Viewpoint on energy

Since nuclear power is able to produce significant amounts of energy for a small amount of fuel, this method has recently attracted attention of most countries. In the present study, we seek to investigate the problems associated with nuclear energy in China. China is ranked 11th in terms of nuclear power generation, and it is currently producing 8587 MW of nuclear power with its 11 nuclear reactors. However, China supplies only 1.9% of its electricity from nuclear energy and it is much lower than the global average of 16%, because less than 1% of world’s uranium reserve exists in China. Currently, China is heavily dependent on imports from countries such as Russia and Australia to achieve primary fuels.     

低碳背景下我国电力系统发展模式及实施路径

针对低碳发展已成为时代的需求和提高生活质量的渴求,提出了我国低碳电力系统发展模式,从优化能源结构、加强电煤运输管理、发展节能输配电技术、加强电力需求侧管理及完善节能减排机制等5方面探讨了我国低碳电力系统发展具体实施路径,并给出了我国低碳电力系统的发展保障措施。     

The role of renewable and sustainable energy in the energy mix of Malaysia: a review

Energy consumption has risen in Malaysia because of developing strategies and increasing rate of population. Depletion of fossil fuel resources, fluctuation in the crude oil prices, and emersion of new environmental problems due to greenhouse gasses effects of fossil fuel combustion have convinced governments to invest in development of power generation based on renewable and sustainable energy (RSE) resources. Recently, power generation from RSE resources has been taken into account in the energy mix of every country to supply the annual electricity demand. In this paper, the scenario of the energy mix of Malaysia and the role of RSE resources in power generation are studied. Major RSE sources, namely biomass and biogas, hydro‐electricity, solar energy, and wind energy, are discussed, focusing more toward the electrical energy demand for electrification. It is found that power generation based on biomass and biogas utilization, solar power generation, and hydropower has enough spaces for more development in Malaysia. Moreover, minihydropower and wind power generation could be effective for rural regions of Malaysia. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

煤电关乎中国能源安全刍议

我国一次能源消费结构中煤炭的比重高达70％,我国的电力结构中煤电的比重高达80％.对于中国的能源问题,一直以来认为煤炭在一次能源和电力结构中所占比例过大,为此正在大力发展水电、核电、风电、太阳能发电,以降低煤电的比例,但收效甚微.我国煤炭在一次能源消费结构中的比例,1978年为70.7％,到2010年为70.9％;煤电在全国发电量中的比例,1978年为82.6％,2010年为80.8％.中国的能源安全必须实现能源独立,不能依赖国际市场,为此在未来很长时间内我国的能源安全应立足于煤炭.因此中国应下决心推行一次能源结构以煤为主、电力结构以煤电为主的能源战略,这是基于我国煤炭资源比石油、天然气丰富;我国2010年煤炭产量占全球48％,煤炭进口依存度仅为4.3％;国际煤炭市场价格比石油、天然气低许多所确定的.美国将94％的煤炭用于发电,我国目前还只有50％左右用于发电,因此建议应该继续提高煤炭用于发电的比例.     

Resource potential for wind-hydrogen power in Ukraine

The paper provides an assessment of the current wind energy potential in Ukraine, and discusses developmental prospects for wind-hydrogen power generation in the country. Hydrogen utilization is a highly promising option for Ukraine's energy system, environment, and business. In Ukraine, an optimal way towards clean zero-carbon energy production is through the development of the wind-hydrogen sector. In order to make it possible, the energy potential of industrial hydrogen production and use has to be studied thoroughly.Ukraine possesses huge resources for wind energy supply. At the beginning of 2020, the total installed capacity of Ukrainian wind farms was 1.17 GW. Wind power generation in Ukraine has significant advantages in comparison to the use of traditional sources such as thermal and nuclear energy.In this work, an assessment of the wind resource potential in Ukraine is made via the geographical approach suggested by the authors, and according to the «Methodical guidelines for the assessment of average annual power generation by a wind turbine based on the long-term wind speed observation data». The paper analyses the long-term dynamics of average annual wind speed at 40 Ukrainian weather stations that provide valid data. The parameter for the vertical wind profile model is calculated based on the data reanalysis for 10 m and 50 m altitudes. The capacity factor (CF) for modern wind turbine generators is determined. The CF spatial distribution for an average 3 MW wind turbine and the power generation potential for the wind power plants across the territory of Ukraine are mapped.Based on the wind energy potential assessment, the equivalent possible production of water electrolysis-derived green hydrogen is estimated. The potential average annual production of green hydrogen across the territory of Ukraine is mapped.It is concluded that Ukraine can potentially establish wind power plants with a total capacity of 688 GW on its territory. The average annual electricity production of this system is supposed to reach up to 2174 bln kWh. Thus, it can provide an average annual production of 483 billion Nm³ (43 million tons) of green hydrogen by electrolysis. The social efficiency of investments in wind-hydrogen electricity is presented.     

Australia: Approaching an energy crossroads

This paper considers energy policy in Australia in the context of its considerable energy resources, climate change and a recent change in government. It examines the possible paths that future energy use and policy in Australia could take, including published projections based largely on a “business as usual” approach and projections based on a dramatic shift towards more efficient use of energy and renewable energy technologies. It also considers the various factors affecting future policy direction, including energy security, the advocacy in Australia for establishing nuclear electricity generation and other parts of the nuclear fuel-cycle, responses to climate change, and carbon sequestration. It concludes that while the Australian Government is currently reluctant to move away from a dependence on coal, and unlikely to adopt nuclear energy generation, a low-emissions future without waiting for the deployment of carbon capture and storage and without resorting to nuclear power is within reach. However, in the face of strong pressure from interest groups associated with energy intensive industry, making the necessary innovations will require further growth of community concern about climate change, and the development of greater understanding of the feasibility of employing low carbon-emissions options.