Russian gas price reform and the EU–Russia gas relationship: Incentives,consequences and European security of supply

In order to provide a comprehensive picture on the relationship between Russia and the EU, the focus should be on both the external energy relationship as well as Russia's internal organization. This paper sets out to do this by combining both strands of research in order to arrive at recommendations for Europe on the way to adjust its energy policy towards Russia. The emphasis is on whether or not Russia should impose unified gas pricing. Main conclusions are that the perceived advantages of unified Russian gas pricing to Russia as well as Europe are in fact overstated and that EU security of supply might worsen under unified gas prices. Three policy recommendations are that EU policy should (1) more explicitly acknowledge the interdependence between Russia and Europe; (2) not push Russia towards unified gas pricing; and (3) not take for granted any increase in Russian exports flowing to Europe.     

Soviet gas and European security

This article probes the energy security issues associated with Western Europe's imports of Soviet gas. The prime focus is on France, but the situations of FR Germany and Italy are also examined. The analysis suggests that growing West European dependence on natural gas from sources judged politically unreliable will not entail dire or immediate vulnerability to supply cut-offs. At the same time, the article concludes that by the early 1990s imported natural gas from politically unreliable sources may have assumed as large a role as is prudent in coping with the European energy problem.     

Institutional change in European natural gas markets and implications for energy security: Lessons from the German case

This article focuses on institutional change in the German gas market driven by EU internal market and climate policies. It argues that institutional change has functional externalities for energy security. The German gas market provides a useful case study, as Germany is the biggest continental gas market, a major hub and transport country which has largely privatised, unbundled and separated its natural gas undertakings. Transition is ongoing, tending towards an internal market. Inter/national natural gas economics is in flux. Institutional evolution has repercussions for corporate and market structures, the operating of the system and the realization of transactions. Changes in the institutional framework crucially affect energy security, which is often associated with institutional stability. On the basis of this case study, it is argued herein that the security of natural gas supplies should be reexamined in the context of the developments described above, since overall the institutional changes in natural gas security lag behind the EU’s internal natural gas market development.     

Auction design for gas pipeline transportation capacity—The case of Nabucco and its open season

As a response to the Russian dominance of the EU's natural gas supplies and the EU's increasing gas demands, major gas pipeline projects are currently under way to enhance the EU's energy supply security. Oftentimes to raise financing and to allocate gas transportation capacities, auctions are carried out to allow gas shippers to book transportation rights.     

我国从俄罗斯引进天然气工程的多目标模糊决策分析

介绍了一种新的模糊多目标决策解法－隶属度离异决策法。应用该方法 以投资总额、总成本、还贷年限、销售气量等作为考核指标,对我国从俄罗斯引进 天然气工程方案进行了决策分析。实践表明,本文提出的隶属度离异决策法对于 解决两级多目标模糊决策问题具有很好的适用性。     

European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production

The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25–40% from today's level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20–25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94–78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124–135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96–115 bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20 bcm lower than today's level.     

Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East

This paper addresses issues of natural gas which raise questions about European energy security. It first focuses on the rising gas demand of the EU27 and elaborates alleged risks of dependence on Russia such as Gazprom's disagreement with Ukraine, which became an international gas crisis in January 2006 and also more recently in January 2009. Incentives and barriers of Europe's further cooperation with selected Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and Middle Eastern (Iran, Iraq and Egypt) countries are discussed. Supplies from Caspian are analyzed with a particular focus on Russia's role and the vested interests in the region. Supplies from the Middle East are elaborated with regard to Iran's huge and Iraq's emerging potentials in terms of natural gas reserves and foreign direct investments in the energy sector. The geopolitical analysis leads to a conclusion that the best strategy, and what seems more likely, for the EU is to include at least two countries from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq within its natural gas supply system.     

European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports

The widening gap between EU gas production and consumption may require an 87% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030, and there are great uncertainties regarding the amounts of gas that can be expected from new suppliers. The potential of increased production from Norway and Algeria is limited; hence, Russia is likely to play a crucial part of meeting the anticipated growing gas demand of the EU. A field-by-field study of 83 giant gas fields shows that the major producing Russian gas fields are in decline, and by 2013 much larger supplies from the Yamal Peninsula and the Shtokman field will be needed in order to avoid a decline in production. Gas from fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will mainly be directed to the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, thereby limiting its relevance to the European and CIS markets. As a result, the maximum export increase to the European and CIS markets amounts only to about 45% for the period 2015–2030. The discourse surrounding the EU’s dependence on Russian gas should thus not only be concerned with geopolitics, but also with the issue of resource limitations.     

Eastern Canadian crude oil supply and its implications for regional energy security

Canada has been blessed with immense energy resources; however, their distribution is not uniform. One such example is crude oil, which is found primarily in western Canada. Eastern Canada, consisting of the six eastern-most provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Quebec), produce limited quantities of crude oil, most of which is exported to the United States. Ideally, western Canadian crude oil would meet the demands of eastern Canada; however, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the absence of oil pipelines means that eastern Canada increasingly relies on supplies of crude oil from a small number of oil exporting countries, many with declining production.     

Global energy security and the implications for the EU

The following article will analyse the global and geopolitical dimensions of the future international energy security and its implications for Europe and the EU-27. In this context, I will discuss to which extent the EU's newly proclaimed “Energy Action Plan” of the EU Spring summit of 2007 and its declared common energy (foreign) policy are a sufficient strategy to cope with the new global and geopolitical challenges. The article concludes the following: (1) The interlinkage between globally designed traditional energy security concepts – that rely just on economic factors and “market-strategies” – and domestic as well as regional political stability demands new thinking with regard to both energy supply security and foreign and security policies. (2) Although after the Russian–Ukrainian gas conflict in January 2006, energy security has forced its way up the European energy and foreign policy agendas, the EU-27 member states have largely failed to forge a coherent European energy security and energy foreign policy strategy after their Spring summit of 2007 because its declared political solidarity has been still lacking. But the 2nd Strategic Energy Review of November 2008 has recommended new initiatives to overcome this lack by promoting concrete infrastructure and other projects for enhancing Europe's supply security and its political solidarity as part of a common energy (foreign) policy. If the EU is able to implement the March 2007 and November 2008 decisions, the EU oil and gas demand will drastically reduce and freeze at current levels. In this case, Putin's energy policies by using Russia's energy resources and pipeline monopolies as a political instrument to enforce its economic and geopolitical interests will be proved as self-defeating in Russia's long-term strategic interests. It will reduce Gazprom's gas exports to a much smaller EU gas market than originally forecasted as the result of a deliberate EU policy of decreasing its overall gas demand and by diversifying its gas imports.     

Russian natural gas exports—Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply?

In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical tools to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from different Russian domestic gas prices and production capacities in 2015. We also investigate whether a fully competitive European gas market may provide incentives for Gazprom, the dominant Russian gas company, to change its export behaviour. Our main findings suggest that both increased domestic gas prices and sufficient production capacities are vital to maintain Gazprom's market share in Europe over the next decade. In fact, Russia may struggle to carry out its current long-term export commitments if domestic prices are sufficiently low. At the same time, if Russian prices approach European net-back levels, Gazprom may reduce exports in favour of a relatively more profitable domestic market.     

Energy supply security and geopolitics: A European perspective

The security of energy supply to the EU is examined in the context of two storylines. Markets and Institutions exemplifies an economically and politically integrated, multilateral world with effective institutions and markets. Regions and Empires involves a world broken up in rival political and economic blocks, competing for resources and markets via political, economic and military power. It is shown that these storylines have a significant impact on the development of the energy market, on the way in which energy supply may be secured and on the effect and applicability of the several types of instruments available. The current EU is geared towards enlargement and a deepening of economic integration, based on the tenets of the post-1945 multilateral world system. The present world tends towards Regions and Empires and suggests that the EU may have to reorient its energy security policy. Energy policy must become an integral part of EU external trade and foreign relations and security policy. The EU should develop its own strategy, actively investing in dialogues with producer countries in the Persian Gulf and Africa and with Russia. Sustainable prosperity and governance in these regions will support EU energy security.     

垃圾填埋气发电项目的经济评价及其政策建议

综合分析了垃圾填埋气发电项目经济性，并通过对比分析此类项目国民经济评价和项目财务评价的结果，提出了政府鼓励支持这类项目的方式和建议。     

Serbian gas sector in the spotlight of oil and gas agreement with Russia

The Russian natural gas industry is the world's largest producer and transporter of natural gas. This paper identifies the benefits for Serbia as transient country to European Union for Russian natural gas through South Stream gas-line in the current political context of implementation of gas agreement. On the other hand, according to the Agreement on Stabilization and Integration to European Union, Serbia is obligatory to implement reforms in energy sector and its energy policy must be in accordance with the European Union policy. Republic of Serbia has produced and consumed natural gas domestically since 1952, but has always been net importer. Strategy of Energy Development in Serbia and especially, National Action Plan for the gasification on the territory of Republic of Serbia dedicated special attention to gas economy development in respect with expected contribution in efficient energy use and environmental policy protection in the country.     

Mexican natural gas implications for the US market

Despite the current glut of natural gas in the USA, much future demand may not be met unless supplementary sources of supply are developed. Mexico is not now an important supply source but a September 1979 agreement may mean that large volumes of Mexican gas will be exported to the USA in the future. This paper presents a modified version of the out-of-kilter algorithm used to examine the possible impacts of this gas, with particular attention given to identification of those areas most likely to benefit from these supplemental supplies. The results indicate that if Mexican natural gas is introduced to the US pipeline network in either southern Texas or southern New Mexico in large quantities, serious pipeline capacity problems may inhibit the use of Mexican supplies as a supplementary source.     

Should Russia increase domestic prices for natural gas?

Previous analyses of Russia's dual pricing system and hidden subsidies for natural gas, have neglected to assess the dual pricing system as a domestic environmental policy. If dual pricing is considered as a policy to reduce conventional air pollutants, it is more than economically justified in Russia on the basis of avoided health risks. In the short term, the substitution of coal for natural gas may result in significant additional human health risk, which translates into economic damage. An alternative abatement possibility is expensive and unlikely enforceable, due to weak environmental regulation. The authors conclude that while the price differential can be expected to diminish over time, as Russia increasingly moves to a market economy, in the near-term, dual pricing of natural gas remains the most efficient environmental policy for Russia.     

The European ALABC IMPLAB project: final results and conclusions

This paper describes a project aimed at improving the performance and life of lead-acid batteries for electric vehicle applications and carried out by the European members of the Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium. The project was divided into three principle tasks. The first concentrated on separator design and compression in order to improve cycle life. The second task sought to improve the specific energy of tubular plate designs, which traditionally have good life in traction applications. Additionally work was carried out to see the effects of rapid charging techniques on these improved designs. The third task sought to improve negative-plate performance by the characterization and evaluation of improved expanders.     

A complementarity model for the European natural gas market

In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call “traders”, pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, liquefiers and regasifiers is modeled via optimization problems whose Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions in combination with market-clearing conditions form the complementarity system. The LNG tankers, marketers and consumption sectors are modeled implicitly via appropriate cost functions, aggregate demand curves, and ex post calculations, respectively. The model is run on several case studies that highlight its capabilities, including a simulation of a disruption of Russian supplies via Ukraine.     

Efficiency of European emissions markets: Lessons and implications

While prior studies have shown that emission rights and futures contracts on emission rights are efficiently priced, there are no studies on the efficiency of the options market. Therefore, this study fills the gap. We examine empirical evidence regarding the efficiency of the options market for emissions rights in Europe. We employ the put-call parity approach to test the efficiency of options on emission rights traded in the European market. This implies that firms can trade options on emission rights in addition to other existing strategies in order to manage their greenhouse gas emissions.