基于传统生态智慧的江南水网空间韧性机制及实践启示

传统江南水网空间是一种典型的社会—生态系统,人文社会系统和自然生态系统之间的良性互动对于其韧性构建有着重要的积极作用。基于柯林斯等人提出的压力—冲击动态(PPD)模型,以平江府为典型代表,研究传统江南水网空间如何通过生态系统服务的桥梁搭建水网物质空间与人类社区发展之间的联系,从而厘清社会—生态系统在此过程中如何培育、优化和提升江南水网空间韧性。在此基础上,创新性地从生态系统服务供需关系的角度提出社会—生态韧性构建的生态智慧,并倡导以恢复力、适应力与变革力韧性机制培育为导向的、江南地区构建现代社区实践的若干启示,旨在引导江南水网空间实现具有韧性的社会—生态系统转型发展。     

A Spatial Network Model for Civil Infrastructure System Development

Infrastructure networks play an important role in improving economic prosperity, enabling movement of resources, and protecting communities from hazards. As these networks serve population, they evolve in response to social, economic, environmental, and technological changes. Consideration of these interactions has thus far been limited by use of simplified data sets and idealized network structures, and is unable to explain the complexity and suboptimal structures displayed by real infrastructure networks. This article presents a new computational model that simulates the growth and evolution of infrastructure systems. Empirical evidence obtained from analysis of nontrivial real‐world data sets is used to identify the mechanisms that guide and govern system‐scale evolution of infrastructure networks. The model investigates the interplay of three key drivers, namely network demand, network efficiency, and network cost in shaping infrastructure network architectures. The validity of the model is verified by comparing key topological and spatial properties of simulated networks with real‐world networks from six infrastructure sectors. The model is used to develop and explore different scenarios of infrastructure network futures, and their resilience is shown to change as a result of different infrastructure management policies. The model can therefore be used to identify system‐wide infrastructure engineering strategies to reduce network costs, increase network efficiency, and improve the resilience of infrastructure networks to disruptive events.     

From fail-safe to safe-to-fail: Sustainability and resilience in the new urban world

The extent to which the 21st century world will be “sustainable” depends in large part on the sustainability of cities. Early ideas on implementing sustainability focused on concepts of achieving stability, practicing effective management and the control of change and growth – a “fail-safe” mentality. More recent thinking about change, disturbance, uncertainty, and adaptability is fundamental to the emerging science of resilience, the capacity of systems to reorganize and recover from change and disturbance without changing to other states – in other words, systems that are “safe to fail.” While the concept of resilience is intellectually intriguing, it remains largely unpracticed in contemporary urban planning and design. This essay discusses the theory of resilience as it applies to urban conditions, and offers a suite of strategies intended to build urban resilience capacity: multifunctionality, redundancy and modularization, (bio and social) diversity, multi-scale networks and connectivity, and adaptive planning and design. The strategies are discussed in the context of resilience theory and sustainability science, and are illustrated with innovative policies, projects, and programs selected from international examples.     

Guiding principles for infrastructure climate change risk and adaptation studies

As global climate mitigation actions increasingly appear to be unable to curb global emissions, there has been a corresponding increase in climate adaptation planning undertaken by governments and communities. Along with an increasing number of adaptation studies, there has been an increasing complexity of adaptation studies as practitioners attempt to plan the adaptation of whole communities, cities and in some cases nations. These studies are commonly underpinned by increasingly complex climate change vulnerability studies that also attempt to encompass concepts such as resilience and adaptive capacity. Owners and operators of infrastructure assets and networks also need to consider climate change. This need has been met by an increasing number of climate change risk and adaptation studies of major infrastructure. The approaches used for these assessments are commonly derived from assessments of whole communities and policy development studies, and apply terminology that is often inconsistent with established engineering asset management methods and approaches. As a result the uptake of these studies has been less than desirable in many cases. To this end, the work presented here proposes a set of principles for undertaking the assessment of climate changes impacts on assets and infrastructure.     

Risk and resilience: strategies for security

Traditional approaches to security and safety are being challenged by ever-increasing complexity in today's socio-economic systems. New vulnerabilities are arising for many reasons: demographic shifts, trans-boundary networks, modern business practices, new systemic risks, and reliance on closely coupled infrastructure systems, among others. In such circumstances there needs to be greater allowance for uncertainty, and a different balance of proactive and reactive risk management. Decision-makers in both governments and the private sector require more comprehensive strategies that combine active management of specific risks with enhancement of generic resilience in society. Security will depend increasingly on community attributes such as social capital, informal communication networks, and organisational culture. As a general strategy for managing complex risks, this paper recommends a multilayered approach involving systems planning, risk management, resilience building, and adaptive responses.     

Probabilistic framework for evaluating food security of households in the aftermath of a disaster

For households of all income levels, and especially for those that are food insecure, food access can be threatened by natural hazards. Extreme natural hazards can disrupt critical infrastructure systems, such as the transportation or electrical power networks, damaging the roads and bridges critical for food supply chains or electrical transmission lines providing electricity for food preservation. Interdependencies among infrastructure systems within the food supply chain make it vulnerable to unanticipated and cascading consequences. Maintaining food security in the aftermath of a natural hazard challenges a community’s resilience, recovery, and social well-being. This study introduces a methodology to consider how the interconnectedness among civil infrastructure systems impacts food-security of urban inhabitants. To this end, different infrastructure systems along with their spatial distribution are modeled to evaluate the restoration of food security within a community. Food security metrics, including food availability, accessibility, and affordability, are defined and quantified to provide risk-informed decision support to policymakers in the aftermath of an extreme natural hazard. The methodology proposed herein that considers system interconnectedness and uncertainties in demand and supply can be applied to identify practical policy interventions to hasten recovery of food systems and reduce the adverse impacts of food-insecurity on a community.     

传统城-水适应性在快速城市化背景下的转化研究——以福州江北城区为例

古代福州是中国传统城市设计与山水自然系统完美结合的典范.在山、水、城一体的城市结构下,古代福州水系的运行方式体现了城市水系作为自然水系的有机组成部分.但在近几十年快速城市化过程中,这种协调的格局发生了巨大的改变.以福州江北城区为例,通过城市水系对城市格局、城市水利、城市景观和城市文化4个方面的影响来分析清末时期城-水适...     

Real-time remote monitoring: the DuraMote platform and experiments towards future,advanced, large-scale SCADA systems

The economic and social prosperity of our society depends much on the proper functioning of structures and civil infrastructure systems. Structural health monitoring has been long recognised as a vital tool to preclude and/or mitigate degradation effects and failures of structural systems. Along this line, the DuraMote platform is presented in this paper (named after Durable and Mote) together with real-life applications, laboratory and field experiments, which promote the effort to expand the existing concept of structural monitoring into remote, real-time, continuous and permanent performance monitoring of spatially extended systems. Successful implementation of this technology can improve the resilience and sustainability of large-scale complex infrastructure systems and lead to future, advanced Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition methodology that could be routinely used in a variety of structures and networks.     

地震灾害下城市生命线体系恢复力双维度综合评估

针对现有生命线恢复力研究中单一维度评估的缺陷,引入基础设施网络均衡理论,设计综合考虑生命线网络物理状态和输送能力的体系性能时程响应函数PRF,同时构建包含灾害概率、灾害后果、恢复速率三个主要因素在内的,贯穿技术和组织双维度的生命线体系恢复力评估框架,实现地震灾害下城市生命线体系恢复力双维度综合评估。在以江苏省连云港市区供水网络为例的案例研究中,依据评估框架构建体系恢复力仿真流程,采用场景地震,对环状和网状两种供水体系的震害恢复力进行对比分析,结果显示,尽管网状供水网络的性能水平高于环状网络,但对体系恢复力的提升作用并不明显。而且城市供水体系恢复力随着恢复资源投入量的变化曲线显示,恢复资源的投入量存在最优值,能够以高效费比实现体系恢复力最大化。     

Multiagent Simulation for Complex Adaptive Modeling of Road Infrastructure Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise

Infrastructure systems in coastal areas are exposed to episodic flooding exacerbated by sea‐level rise stressors. To enable assessing the long‐term resilience of infrastructure to such chronic impacts of sea‐level rise, the present study created a novel complex system modeling framework that integrates: (i) stochastic simulation of sea‐level rise stressors, based on the data obtained from downscaled climate studies pertaining to future projections of sea level and precipitation; (ii) dynamic modeling of infrastructure conditions by considering regular decay of infrastructure, as well as structural damages caused by flooding; and (iii) a decision‐theoretic modeling of infrastructure management and adaptation processes based on bounded rationality and regret theories. Using the proposed framework and data collected from a road network in Miami, a multiagent computational simulation model was created to assess the long‐term cost and performance of the road network under various sea‐level rise scenarios, adaptation approaches, and network degradation effects. The results showed the capabilities of the proposed computational model for robust planning and scenario analysis to enhance the resilience of infrastructure systems to sea‐level rise impacts.     

Standing on the shoulders of giants: Understanding changes in urban water practice through the lens of complexity science

Scholars assert that traditional approaches to urban water management need reforming. These debates have identified the need to move toward systems and complexity thinking. The literature offers limited insight into the utility of complexity theory in enhancing urban water policy and practice. This paper aims to address this gap by: (i) synthesizing the intellectual history of complexity science, (ii) identifying key principles of complexity theory and (iii) providing insights into how complexity theory can contribute to twenty-first century urban water management. We reveal how Newtonian logic is deeply embedded in contemporary Western urban water policy and practice. We identify three insights from complexity science that could potentially yield better urban water policy and practice outcomes: system boundaries; agents and networks; and far from equilibrium. These theoretical insights offer an important contribution to scholarly debates as embedded normative frameworks need to be recognized, understood and addressed before transformative change can materialize.     

Investigation of sustainable and resilient design alternatives for water distribution networks

Nowadays there is a pronounced interest in the need for sustainable and resilient infrastructure systems to address the challenges of future infrastructure development. This paper presents a three-objective optimization model for the investigation of various sustainable and resilient design alternatives for water distribution networks. Although optimal design of water distribution networks is a thoroughly studied area, most researchers focused on efficient algorithms to solve the complex design problem. Cost has predominantly been the objective in previous studies with few models also considering resilience or environmental impacts (CO₂ emissions). This research combined all these parameters in a multi-objective model to obtain various sustainable and resilient design alternatives. The model is demonstrated on a three-loop benchmark network that was previously studied. The tradeoff between the objectives is further analyzed to identify the most beneficial solution from the pareto-optimal set of solutions. The dollar worth of enhancing resilience of the benchmark network by a unit is estimated to be in the range of $1.23 to $3.93 million, which translates to about 22% to 69% of the least possible life cycle cost. The results of this research reveal that resilience can be increased by paying a justifiable cost that will also compensate for CO₂ emissions.     

Improving resilience through vulnerability assessment and management

The increasing complexity of infrastructure systems and the possibility of severe consequences due to interdependency and uncertain demands have led to an increased emphasis on resilience. Resilience, in simple terms, is the ability of a system to withstand adverse conditions and to recover quickly from these. Its interpretations and linkages to the related concepts of vulnerability and risk are examined. It is argued that vulnerability is an inherent characteristic of any system, hard or soft, and its identification and management is essential for improving the system's resilience. A systems approach to identify the vulnerable failure scenarios uses the concepts of form, connectivity and hierarchical modelling. Modelling of interactions with social systems and assessing their consequences requires dealing with uncertainty and it remains a challenge.     

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY AND ITS APPLICATIONS IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

Geographic information system (GIS) technology is attracting interest from a broad range of civil engineering disciplines because of its potential to provide a new environment for problem solving which could lower costs, improve quality, and support multi-discipline analysis for complex projects. This paper reviews the primary components and capabilities of GIS technology and shows how it is used in many civil engineering applications, including infrastructure management, transportation, land use planning, water resources engineering, and environmental engineering.     

基于韧性景观理论的江心洲水系网络设施规划研究

近年来,极端天气导致的自然灾害频发,江心洲由于其特殊的地理位置,受自然灾害影响很大。为了构建良好的江心洲绿色基础设施系统,提出将韧性规划与江心洲的绿色基础设施相结合,以水系网络及其水岸空间为研究对象,通过韧性规划特有的"抵御""适应"与"恢复"作用过程,在面对干扰时保证绿色基础设施的正常运作。     

NbS在城市雨洪韧性规划中的应用研究

城市雨洪灾害的产生与气候变化、土地利用、防洪排涝基础设施空间布局等密切相关。大量研究证实,单一依靠市政改造雨水管网的传统做法工程成本高、改造难度大,实际效果不理想。而基于自然的解决方案(Nature-based Solutions,Nb S)倡导对生态系统的最小干预,将灰蓝绿基础设施有机结合,为城市雨洪韧性规划提供了一种新思路。采用“理论研究+应用案例”相结合的方法,首先分析了将Nb S理念应用到城市雨洪韧性规划中的切入点,提出Nb S视角下城市雨洪韧性规划的一些思考;其次,应用MIKE FLOOD模型,对场地雨洪风险进行评估;最后,结合应用案例特点,以堤防岸线、水系网络、水位管理为抓手,阐述了Nb S理念在城市雨洪韧性规划中的具体方案。结果表明,Nb S视角下的城市雨洪韧性规划方案具有可行性,以期共同推动Nb S实施行动。     

ECOLOGICAL DESIGN IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF COMPLEXITY — CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF NOMADIC LANDSCAPE IN HULUNBUIR

As ecological design gradually goes beyond environmental protection or resource conservation towards an activity of creating and managing complex systems, researchers and designers have been increasingly looking for design methods from complexity science. Currently, complexity theories have been widely applied in generating complex forms and establishing design process models. Some designers have further integrated complexity theories with design culture through metaphors. In such context, this article attempts to explore application of ecological design methods under a perspective of complexity science. This article describes a conceptual design for Hulunbuir nomadic landscape①, which reveals potential relationships between multiple factors and helps define design strategies with a kind of datascape. The design process draws on complex system design methods featuring a bottom-up process through nested hierarchies and tries to apply an alternative selecting framework and a feedback-learning system for a more tangible implementation and management.     

Incorporating resilience through adaptability and flexibility

The paper positions adaptable systems as a core concept in resilience. Through a control systems theory framework, it is shown how closed loop control selection leads to system recovery or the return to desired system states following changes in the external environment. The concepts advanced are illustrated on project performance, where system controls are adjusted in response to impacting events, in order to recover the project. The value of having adaptability and flexibility is demonstrated through economic arguments, exampled on a piece of infrastructure subjected to a changing climate.     

Deep Learning for Accelerated Seismic Reliability Analysis of Transportation Networks

To optimize mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery procedures for infrastructure systems, it is essential to use accurate and efficient means to evaluate system reliability against probabilistic events. The predominant approach to quantify the impact of natural disasters on infrastructure systems is the Monte Carlo approach, which still suffers from high computational cost, especially when applied to large systems. This article presents a deep learning framework for accelerating seismic reliability analysis, on a transportation network case study. Two distinct deep neural network surrogates are constructed and studied: (1) a classifier surrogate that speeds up the connectivity determination of networks and (2) an end‐to‐end surrogate that replaces modules such as roadway status realization, connectivity determination, and connectivity averaging. Numerical results from k‐terminal connectivity analysis of a California transportation network subject to a probabilistic earthquake event demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed surrogates in accelerating reliability analysis while achieving accuracies of at least 99%.     

城市规划应对气候变化的适应发展战略——英国等国的经验

通过分析当今国际上以英国等国为例的城市规划应对气候变化的适应发展方法与策略,论述城市规划作为发展战略的重要专业工具,需要在规划的政策管理体系、规划编制的内容与方法、场地规划的基础设施适应设计三个方面进一步深化研究适应发展战略,以提高城市系统的恢复能力。