Markov chain models for life prediction of composite laminates

The results of an experimental program to verify a recently proposed stochastic damage accumulation model for symmetric composite laminates subjected to fatigue loading are presented and used to support the development of a life prediction model. The model is based on the application of nonstationary Markov chains to the “critical element” approach for life prediction of composites. It is a hybrid strength/stiffness degradation model which utilizes basic probability-stress-life information (P-S-N curves) in conjunction with the evolutionary distribution of stresses on the critical load bearing plies of a laminate to determine the evolutionary probability of failure of a laminate. The applicability of the life prediction model is demonstrated through a numerical example.     

基于可拓-Markov沥青路面使用性能预测模型实现

根据目前路面管理系统路面使用性能模型以及存在的问题,提出采用可拓概念区间化路面破损状况指标PCI的优、良、中、差划分,形成沥青路面在综合作用下的Markov过程,利用最小二乘法估计一步转移概率矩阵,从而建立PCI单指标评价可拓-Markov预测模型,并通过实例研究证实了可拓一Markov预测模型的优势。     

CRTSⅡ型板式无砟轨道板局部锈胀裂耐久性寿命预测

以CRTSⅡ型无砟轨道板局部出现顺筋锈胀裂缝作为耐久性极限状态,在相关模型基础上提出假缝处钢筋锈蚀发展的"两阶段"实用模型,并按照"全年锈蚀深度等效"的原则确定不同区域温湿度谱下的锈蚀速度向标准温湿度谱、标准锈蚀速度进行转化的当量关系,为不同地区自然环境下轨道板结构中钢筋腐蚀速度及其耐久性寿命提供了较为实用的预测方法。以京沪铁路沿线具有代表性的北京、徐州、上海三大城市为例对各类环境下轨道板假缝处的钢筋锈蚀速度和局部锈胀裂耐久性寿命进行了预测,并建议:对通过假缝的上层纵向钢筋采取表面涂刷环氧树脂或沥青漆等措施进行防锈处理以延长无砟轨道结构的耐久性寿命。     

Probabilistic performance prediction model for Austrian torrent control infrastructure

Due to the growing stock of torrent control structures and decreasing investments, the protection level can be reduced in the long term. Therefore, the focus of the future investments has been shifted on efficiency improvement and maintenance of existing structures. The maintenance of the existing structures is necessary to ensure safety from natural hazards, which are increasing as a consequence of the climate change. Due to the increasing number of structures, there is a strong need to develop a good maintenance management for these infrastructure works. This study is based on data from the condition rating programme of the Austrian Service for Torrent and Avalanche Control. For the structures relevant in this work, 75,343 records were available. The data were examined for different construction type and construction materials. The reliability of the structures was determined by means of the Markov chain. The study describes a homogeneous Markov chain model formed by the data of the condition rating. The result of this study is a proposal for a time to failure (TTF) and a time to repair (TTR) for several construction types with different construction materials as well as the time-dependent use of construction materials in the sector of the Austrian torrent control infrastructure.     

基于区间分析的锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构使用寿命预测

钢筋锈蚀程度具有很大的不确定性,为体现锈蚀不确定性对结构寿命预测结果的影响,将区间分析方法引入锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的使用寿命预测。首先,对区间分析的基础知识及区间参数问题的求解方法作简单介绍,针对区间运算法则导致运算结果区间扩张的缺陷,优化方法是求解区间参数问题的有效方法;其次,基于钢筋锈蚀过程的确定性预测模型,采用区间数描述结构参数及环境参数,提出结构锈蚀损伤的区间预测方法;再根据选取的使用寿命终结标准,提出结构使用寿命的区间预测方法。工程实例分析表明,该方法分析过程简单,不需要建立不确定参数的概率模型,分析结果以区间形式给出,预测结果较概率方法更直观,易于接受。     

Evaluation of data driven models for pipe burst prediction in urban water distribution systems

ABSTRACT

The water distribution network is one of the most expensive parts of a water supply system. The fundamental variables of a network, material, diameter, length, age, and the hydraulic pressure of pipes are the factors that affect the pipe burst rate (PBR). Establishing a relationship among the burst rate and these factors is an important step to assess the conditions governing the network and preventing significant water leakage. Implementing the data-driven approach in PBR prediction is an effective method to find the relationship. In the present study, Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm-based Support Vector Regression (GOA-SVR), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) have been developed to predict PBR in an urban area. The results show that the GPR model outperforms other methods. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis indicates that the pipe age has a negative effect on PBR modeling while the pipe length is the most relevant variable.     

Time-dependent reliability method for service life prediction of reinforced concrete shield metro tunnels

Ageing and deterioration of underground tunnels is inevitable after their long-time in service. This necessitates a rigorous assessment of the probability of failure due to deterioration with a view to predicting remaining safe life. In the light of considerable research undertaken on prediction of service life of the aboveground structures, e.g. bridges, few such studies dealing with the underground structures, e.g. tunnels, have been carried out. The intention of this paper is to present a time-dependent reliability method to assess the tunnel probability failure due to different mechanisms of deterioration. Stochastic models are developed for four common failure modes of tunnel structures as identified by strength and serviceability criteria. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in a case study. It is found in the paper that the reinforcement corrosion is a key factor that affects the probability of deterioration failure and that all deterioration scenarios need to be considered in the assessment of tunnel failures and prediction of their remaining safe life. The proposed method can help the asset managers and practitioners in developing rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing tunnels with a view for better management of the valuable tunnel asset.     

Reliability-based service life assessment for deteriorating reinforced concrete buildings considering the effect of cumulative damage

Most engineering systems used in maintenance strategies must consider deterioration and seismic structural damage. To identify the effects of deterioration and earthquakes simultaneously on structural performance, this study applies an integral simulation method. Compared with that of previous studies, the feature of the proposed method is its analysis of the time-dependent structural capacity of a deteriorating reinforced concrete (RC) building and the simulation of life-cycle earthquake events within a specified service period, while considering cumulative damage induced by deterioration and earthquakes. In addition, the proposed assessment method is applied to derive the reliability-based service life of a deteriorating RC building located in a region with high seismic hazard. Briefly, for deteriorating RC buildings, the proposed reliability-based service life assessment method provides useful information related to maintenance based on both serviceability and safety.     

Service life prediction of exterior cladding components under standard conditions

An empirical method was developed for the prediction of the service life of building components, based on an evaluation of their actual performance and on the identification of failure mechanisms affecting their durability. The service life of exterior components subjected to normal service conditions is predicted. Four types of exterior claddings are exemplified: cementitious mortar, synthetic rendering, ceramic mosaic, and wet‐fixing stone cladding. The proposed prediction models yield high degrees of fit to the data (R ² in the range of 0.86 to 0.93 at a 0.0001 level of significance). Life cycle costs (LCC) analysis – following service‐life prediction results – leads to the conclusion that maintenance and replacements costs account for 10–80% of initial capital costs. Synthetic rendering exhibited the highest LCC effectiveness, reflecting durability and low capital costs. The method can be used for planning preventive maintenance, evaluating economic implications of failures, and planning service life.     

混凝土导热系数的理论模型及其应用

本文介绍了确定普通混凝土导热系数的四个理论模型,它们分别是Campbell-Allen and Thorne模型、Hamilton and Crosser模型、Kook-Han Kim模型以及朱伯芳模型。通过这几个模型计算了不同骨料体积含量及不同强度等级混凝土的导热系数,并将这些计算值与实验值比较,可以发现Kook-Han Kim模型计算值的线性拟合与实验值较为接近;虽然其它三个模型计算值的线性拟合与实验值有一定误差,但当混凝土本身的导热系数越高时,它们得到的计算值的线性拟合与实验实测值的误差越小,而且这些模型足够可以反应各个因素对混凝土导热系数的影响。     

后张法预应力混凝土大直径管桩耐久性与寿命预测研究

该文通过室内试验测试大管桩混凝土本体耐久性参数,并将其作为耐久性退化和寿命预测研究的初始边界条件。对国内几个地区服役多年的大管桩码头开展耐久性调研和现场取芯测试分析,获得在役大管桩混凝土氯离子浓度分布数据。基于对大量数据统计分析,获得在役大管桩混凝土表面氯离子浓度、氯离子扩散系数、氯离子渗透深度等耐久性状态参数,研究大管桩混凝土受氯离子侵蚀的规律。在上述研究基础上,以Fick第二定律数学模型为核心建立大管桩寿命预测模型,开发寿命预测软件。该研究为大管桩耐久性设计、使用和维护提供理论与试验依据。 关键词：     

长沙地铁混凝土抗碳化性能及使用寿命预测研究

研究多种因素对长沙地铁混凝土的抗碳化性能的影响,试验结果表明混凝土抗碳化性能随混凝土强度等级增加而增强;采用聚羧酸减水剂混凝土的抗碳化性能优于采用萘系减水剂的混凝土的抗碳化性能。依据Fick第二定律及相似理论,建立了长沙地铁混凝土抗碳化耐久性预测方法。混凝土抗碳化耐久性预测结果表明所设计的不同强度等级的长沙地铁混凝土抗碳化耐久寿命均超过了100年的设计使用寿命。     

Corrosion and capacity prediction of marine steel infrastructure under a changing environment

The deterioration of marine steel infrastructure caused by corrosion may be influenced by a changing climate and/or pollution level which may lead to its serviceability and structural failure. However, almost all corrosion research until recently assumed time-invariant environmental conditions. A structural reliability analysis is applied here to simulate steel sheet piles in sea water conditions under a changing environment. Corrosion of marine steel infrastructure is modelled as a spatial time-dependent process including sea water temperature and sea level rise due to global warming and dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration increase caused by pollution. The steel sheet piles are divided vertically into 70 elements to consider the spatial variability of different corrosion zones and sea level rise effects. Two limit states are considered: (i) stress of steel sheet piles reaches their yield stress and (ii) pitting corrosion perforation to provide an alert to repair or maintenance. The results show that ignoring the effects of a changing environment can underestimate structural capacity failure risks, and pollution will have a more significant effect on capacity of steel sheet piles than sea water temperature and sea level rise caused by global warming.     

建筑工程项目工期的影响因素与预测模型

工期目标直接影响工程项目实施效果，但是影响工程项目工期的因素众多，很难准确预测一个合理的工期。本文基于上海市2008~2015年212个建筑工程项目的实践数据，首先识别出影响项目工期的主要因素，包括总造价、总建筑面积、总层数、檐高、基础开挖深度、建筑用途、结构类型等，以及派生因素如标准层面积、单位面积造价等，然后使用多元线性回归方法得到满足假设检验条件的初步模型。经过全面对比分析，发现以对数建设速度作为工期模型的因变量更加精确。通过调整不同影响因素，得到不同预测模型。然后通过评价不同假设检验，选择最佳工期预测模型。最后验证该预测模型在不同条件变化下的稳定性和有效性，通过广泛讨论不同影响因素，提出优化后的工期预测模型和应用建议。     

基于可靠度的机场刚性道面剩余寿命预测方法

介绍了机场刚性道面疲劳破坏模型,编写了道面可靠度计算程序;基于Miner定律和可靠性理论,提出了道面疲劳损坏度的概念和计算方法,基于疲劳损坏度,提出了机场刚性道面剩余寿命预测方法,并将该方法与机场水泥混凝土道面设计规范中的方法进行了比较.     

Examining the feasibility of prediction models by monitoring data and management data for bioaerosols inside office buildings

Exposure to bioagents can cause several health problems, including acute allergies, infectious diseases, and myctoxicosis. Nevertheless, all conventional methods for measuring airborne bioaerosols have significant limitations such as high cost, prolonged measurement time, and discontinuous measurements.     

灰色马尔可夫链在混凝土疲劳寿命预测中的应用

本文在灰色预测的基础上，引入马尔可夫链预测，建立起了灰色马尔可夫链预测模型。对混凝土疲劳寿命的实验数据进行预测．得到了精度较高的预测结果。证明了利用灰色马尔可夫链对混凝土疲劳寿命进行预测是一种行之有效的新方法。     

Remaining fatigue life of steel railway bridges under enhanced axle loads

In this study, various fatigue damage models proposed by researchers have been briefly discussed and found that the models are problem specific and their efficacy needs to be checked for high cyclic fatigue cases such as in railway bridges. Towards this, field studies were conducted to obtain the strain responses from a steel bridge during the passage of scheduled trains and test train formation with enhanced axle loading. Instrumentation was carried out at critical locations to obtain the responses from the girder. Three different scenarios have been considered to avoid the influence of noise. Further, numerical simulation of the bridge subjected to train loading at different speeds was carried out using ANSYS to obtain synthetic data of strain response from the validated finite element model. Analysis was carried out for normal as well as for futuristic speed of the trains. Responses obtained from field measurements as well as from numerical investigations were used to calculate the damage indices. Based on the damage indices, remaining fatigue life of the bridge was evaluated. The present study can be helpful in assessing the health condition of the railway bridges and to check the suitability of further increase in axle load or speed of trains.