地下水动态预测的自记忆性模型及其应用研究

地下水位动态变化是一个复杂的水文过程，准确地预测地下水位变化情况在水资源开发利用中有着重要意义。本文运用反演建模和自记忆性方程相结合的方法，建立了地下水位动态预测模型。实例表明，该模型具有简洁实用的优点，且有显著的拟合精度和预报准确率。     

Processing Modflow在地下水位预测中的应用

数值模拟软件逐渐成为预测地下水演化更普遍的工具,并且广泛应用于地下水动态变化研究.以乌苏市平原区为例,结合区域水文地质条件及钻井资料,利用Processing Modflow建立三维水流数值模拟模型,并对该模型进行平面流场拟合,验证出模拟值基本符合2018年实测地下水位,通过模型模拟2018—2027年不同条件地下水位...     

时间序列分析在地下水位预报中的应用

依据北京市地下水位观测井月平均水位资料,运用逐步自回归模型、指数平滑模型、季节性模型3种时间序列模型分别建立地下水位动态模拟和预测模型,并对模型的模拟和预测精度进行对比分析。通过应用实例分析反映,时间序列模型可较全面地反映地下水位动态变化规律,且计算简单,所需资料较少且易于获得,可以作为一种简易快速的地下水位模拟预测模型,能为地下水资源合理开发利用和科学管理提供参考依据。     

地下水位监测系统及其应用探讨

地下水是水资源的重要组成部分,在现代供水中发挥着不可替代的作用。地下水位监测系统通过对地下水位的动态监测,为区域水资源的科学管理、合理开发利用及水资源的保护提供了基础。文中阐述了地下水水位监控系统的工作原理、功能特点、应用效果,并对其发展提出了建议。     

Optimum Abstraction of Groundwater for Sustaining Groundwater Level and Reducing Irrigation Cost

Adaptation to increasing irrigation cost due to declination of groundwater level is a major challenge in groundwater dependent irrigated region. The objective of this study is to estimate the optimum abstraction of groundwater for irrigation for sustainable management of groundwater resources in Northwest Bangladesh. A data-driven model using a support vector machine (SVM) has been developed to estimate the optimum abstraction of groundwater for irrigation and a multiple-linear regression (MLR)-based model has been developed to estimate the reduction of the irrigation cost due to the elevation of the groundwater level. The application of the SVM model revealed that the groundwater level in the area can be kept within the suction lift of a shallow tube-well by reducing pre-monsoon groundwater-dependent irrigated agriculture by 40%. Adaptive measures, such as reducing the overuse of water for irrigation and rescheduling harvesting, can keep the minimum level of groundwater within the reach of shallow tube-wells by reducing only 10% of groundwater-based irrigated agriculture. The elevation of the groundwater level through those adaptive measures can reduce the irrigation cost by 2.07 × 10³ Bangladesh Taka (BDT) per hectare in Northwest Bangladesh, where the crop production cost is increasing due to the decline of the groundwater level. It is expected that the study would help in policy planning for the sustainable management of groundwater resources in the region.     

BP网络模型在灌区地下水位动态模拟中的应用

采用误差反传算法的神经网络模型（简称BP网络）,建立了某井灌区地下水位动态BP网络模型,模拟了不同灌水量条件下地下水位的动态变化,研究结果表明模型具有较高精度,能较好地表征研究区域的地下水水位动态变化特征。     

A Comparative Study of Data-driven Models for Groundwater Level Forecasting

Water Resources Management - Irregular rainfall patterns and limited freshwater availability have driven humans to increase their dependence on groundwater resources. An essential aspect of...     

多种渠道防渗技术在大洼灌区的应用

我们对大洼县新兴农场灌溉渠系进行了多种形式防渗处理并进行了渠道过流能力的连续观测和对比分析后证明 ,渠道防渗工程建成 3年 ,运行稳定 ,综合节水效果显著。     

Feasibility Assessment of Data-Driven Models in Predicting Pollution Trends of Omerli Lake,Turkey

Data-driven models are commonly used in a wide range of disciplines, including environmental engineering. To analyze Omerli Lake’s historic water pollution status, this study monitors data for dissolved oxygen, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, ammonium nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, and ortho phosphate. The quality of the lake water is assessed based on measurements of dissolved oxygen. The collected data are analyzed using regression analysis and artificial neural network models. The main goal of this paper is to reveal the best applicable data-driven model in order to gain forward-looking information regarding the dissolved oxygen level of the lake using other pollution parameters. In order to ascertain eutrophic status, total phosphorus loads for each year are represented on a Vollenweider diagram. Results designate an increasing risk of eutrophication for Omerli Lake in recent years. Results of the data-driven models show that the artificial neural networks model constitutes the best relationship between the dissolved oxygen and other parameters.     

黄河三角洲地下水生态水位确定的风险分析

在地下水生态水位的确定过程中,存在着大量的不确定性因素,它们直接影响着地下水生态水位计算结果的可靠性。基于地下水生态水位计算的不确定性因素分析,给出了计算地下水生态水位风险的蒙特卡罗方法。对各参数进行灵敏度分析,并以黄河三角洲为例,给出了潜水蒸发强度E、潜水埋深Δ服从不同分布时,地下水生态水位的风险率和频率分布特征。研究结果表明地下水生态水位受参数E、Δ空间分布变化的影响,呈现出明显的不确定性。     

远程分布式地下水位监测系统

地下水、水库等水位的变化情况直接和人类生活息息相关。目前一般采用水尺或水位计进行水位测定,很多时候只能在现场进行人工水位测量,往往造成观测结果不准确等问题。为解决人工操作带来的不利影响,通过采用嵌入式系统搭建B/S架构的远程水位监测系统,能实现24 h水位实时监测和数据存储,可远程进行数据下载和查看,系统测量分辨率可达1 mm,测量精度在2 cm以内,既可用于单点的监测,也可用于多点区域性分布式监测。经试验证明,该水位监测系统能实现长期稳定的水位观测,能满足大部分水位监测领域的需求。     

疏勒河流域地下水位变化分析

本文在疏勒河流域近几年地下水实测数据基础上,通过对地下水的影响因素分析,探索地下水水位变化、运动规律,为地下水资源科学利用和有效保护提供参考。     

石家庄平原区浅层地下水位变化研究

通过对石家庄平原区浅层地下水位动态特征分析,揭示了地下水位年际及年内变化规律及其主要影响因素(开采和降水)。结果表明,石家庄平原区地下水位年际下降明显,但不同月份的地下水位年际下降速率不等,雨季前的1月-5月年际平均下降幅度比雨季及其之后的6月-12月年际平均下降幅度大。地下水位的变化主要是受到开采量和降水量的共同作用。在年际变化上,开采量增大导致地下水位下降;而降水量对地下水位的年际影响主要表现在丰水年时地下水位出现回升或下降速度减缓,枯水年时地下水位下降速度增加。在年内变化上,3月份之后开采量增加和降水量较小导致地下水位下降较快,而从6月份开始降水量增大和开采量减小导致地下水位开始回升。     

A Wavelet-ANFIS Hybrid Model for Groundwater Level Forecasting for Different Prediction Periods

Artificial neural network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) have an extensive range of applications in water resources management. Wavelet transformation as a preprocessing approach can improve the ability of a forecasting model by capturing useful information on various resolution levels. The objective of this research is to compare several data-driven models for forecasting groundwater level for different prediction periods. In this study, a number of model structures for Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Wavelet-ANN and Wavelet-ANFIS models have been compared to evaluate their performances to forecast groundwater level with 1, 2, 3 and 4 months ahead under two case studies in two sub-basins. It was demonstrated that wavelet transform can improve accuracy of groundwater level forecasting. It has been also shown that the forecasts made by Wavelet-ANFIS models are more accurate than those by ANN, ANFIS and Wavelet-ANN models. This study confirms that the optimum number of neurons in the hidden layer cannot be always determined by using a specific formula but trial-and-error method. The decomposition level in wavelet transform should be determined according to the periodicity and seasonality of data series. The prediction of these models is more accurate for 1 and 2 months ahead (for example RMSE?=?0.12, E?=?0.93 and R ²?=?0.99 for wavelet-ANFIS model for 1 month ahead) than for 3 and 4 months ahead (for example RMSE?=?2.07, E?=?0.63 and R ²?=?0.91 for wavelet-ANFIS model for 4 months ahead).     

基于循环神经网络的水库水位预测方法

大型水库重要站点的水位预测是水库防洪中的重要问题,目前主要采用水动力学方法计算.但是由于该方法对输入边界条件的准确性要求较高,而实时调度情况下又很难完全满足此条件,因此容易造成较大的水位计算误差.对此,提出了循环神经网络模型,从水库运行的历史数据中挖掘知识,学习入库流量和坝前水位到目标站点水位的映射关系,不需要使用地形...     

吐鲁番盆地地下水埋深的时空变异特征

根据吐鲁番盆地绿洲内布设的34眼长期观测井2007—2013年的地下水埋深监测数据,在ArcGIS10.1的支持下,运用地统计学方法研究了地下水埋深的时空变异特征,利用普通克里格插值法分别绘制了2007年和2013年地下水埋深的空间分布图,并进行了比较分析。结果表明:半变异函数的指数理论模型所预测的指标完全反映了吐鲁番盆地地下水的空间结构和变异特征;2007年具有中等强度的空间相关性,而2013年具有较强的空间相关性;吐鲁番盆地地下水埋深在空间上东西方向具有明显的变化趋势;从整体上看,吐鲁番盆地地下水位具有继续下降趋势,主要受自然环境因素和人为因素的影响。     

Exploring the Mechanism of Surface and Ground Water through Data-Driven Techniques with Sensitivity Analysis for Water Resources Management

The over extraction of groundwater in central-western and southwestern Taiwan has resulted in serious land subsidence for decades. For making countermeasures in response to land subsidence, this study collects long-term hydrological data to explore the relationships between surface water and groundwater in various monitoring stations, and then constructs one-month-ahead forecast models by using data-driven techniques for the water resources management of the Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan. The results demonstrate that the constructed models can accurately forecast monthly groundwater levels. The sensitivity analysis is next conducted on the input variables of the constructed models by using the partial derivative method. The analysis results reveal that streamflow is a predominant factor for groundwater level variation, and therefore streamflow management made by the upstream weir of the river would influence groundwater level variations. This study further implements several scenario analyses based on the interactive mechanism between groundwater and surface water in response to future climatic conditions and weir discharge management, respectively. The results of scenario analyses indicate that the groundwater recharge zone spreads along the Zhuoshui River while lateral and vertical recharge sources would cause different quantities and distribution patterns of groundwater recharge. Besides, an increase in weir discharge would improve groundwater recharge quantities with groundwater level variations at 0.12 m and 0.06 m in wet and dry seasons, respectively. As a consequence, the operation of weir discharge would play an import role in sustainable development of water resources management in the study area.     

几种防渗处理技术在惠州大堤加固工程中的应用

文中介绍了三种防渗处理技术的基本原理、适用范围以及在惠州大堤加固工程中的应用情况 ,可供相关工程参考