The relationship between international crude oil prices and China’s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China’s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China’s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a significant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheritance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.     

HEAVY OIL DEVELOPMENT KEY TO CHINA＇S OIL PRODUCTION GROWTH

How to raise the heavy oil production rate has long been a difficult research project focused by international oil giants while the super-heavy oil development is particularly a world-class bottleneck for many oil producers. However, China＇s main oil companies will give priority to heavy oil exploration and production in the next decade to meet China＇s increasing energy needs.     

Micro-mechanisms of residual oil mobilization by viscoelastic fluids

Four typical types of residual oil, residual oil trapped in dead ends, oil ganglia in pore throats, oil at pore corners and oil film adhered to pore walls, were studied. According to main pore structure characteristics and the fundamental morphological features of residual oil, four displacement models for residual oil were proposed, in which pore-scale flow behavior of viscoelastic fluid was analyzed by a numerical method and micro-mechanisms for mobilization of residual oil were discussed. Calculated results indicate that the viscoelastic effect enhances micro displacement efficiency and increases swept volume. For residual oil trapped in dead ends, the flow field of viscoelastic fluid is developed in dead ends more deeply, resulting in more contact with oil by the displacing fluid, and consequently increasing swept volume. In addition, intense viscoelastic vortex has great stress, under which residual oil becomes small oil ganglia, and finally be carried into main channels. For residual oil at pore throats, its displacement mechanisms are similar to the oil trapped in dead ends. Vortices are developed in the depths of the throats and oil ganglia become smaller. Besides, viscoelastic fluid causes higher pressure drop on oil ganglia, as a driving force, which can overcome capillary force, consequently, flow direction can be changed and the displacing fluid enter smaller throats. For oil at pore corners, viscoelastic fluid can enhance displacement efficiency as a result of greater velocity and stress near the corners. For residual oil adhered to pore wall, viscoelastic fluid can provide a greater displacing force on the interface between viscoelastic fluid and oil, thus, making it easier to exceed the minimum interfacial tension for mobilizing the oil film.     

Diffusion coefficients of natural gas in foamy oil systemsunder high pressures

The diffusion coefficient of natural gas in foamy oil is one of the key parameters to evaluate the feasibility of gas injection for enhanced oil recovery in foamy oil reservoirs.In this paper,a PVT cell was used to measure diffusion coefficients of natural gas in Venezuela foamy oil at high pressures,and a new method for determining the diffusion coefficient in the foamy oil was developed on the basis of experimental data.The effects of pressure and the types of the liquid phase on the diffusion coefficient of the natural gas were discussed.The results indicate that the diffusion coefficients of natural gas in foamy oil,saturated oil,and dead oil increase linearly with increasing pressure.The diffusion coefficient of natural gas in the foamy oil at 20 MPa was 2.93 times larger than that at 8.65 MPa.The diffusion coefficient of the natural gas in dead oil was 3.02 and 4.02 times than that of the natural gas in saturated oil and foamy oil when the pressure was20 MPa.However,the gas content of foamy oil was 16.9times higher than that of dead oil when the dissolution time and pressure were 20 MPa and 35.22 h,respectively.     

Review and Outlook of China＇s Oil Market in 2013

The growth rate of China＇s oil demand dropped considerably in the first half of 2013, and that ofoil products demand varied a lot. The growth rate of domestic crude oil output, processed crude oil and product oil output rose again. Both net imports and dependence of crude oil and oil on foreign trade declined. Exports of gasoline, kerosene and diesel grew on a large scale. Basically the State timely adjusted domestic product oil prices according to the new pricing mechanism and ensured rich supply.     

The evolution and present status of the study on peak oil in China

Peak oil theory is a theory concerning long-term oil reserves and the rate of oil production. Peak oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil or gas in any area under consideration. Its inevitability is analyzed from three aspects. The factors that influence peak oil and their mechanisms are discussed. These include the amount of resources, the discovery maturity of resources, the depletion rate of reserves and the demand for oil. The advance in the study of peak oil in China is divided into three stages. The main characteristics, main researchers, forecast results and research methods are described in each stage. The progress of the study of peak oil in China is summarized and the present problems are analyzed. Finally three development trends of peak oil study in China are presented.     

Analysis on China’s Petroleum Imports and Exports in 1st Half of 2005

In the first half of 2005, the import of crude oil increased 4% up of the same period, but the net import of petroleum products including crude oil, oil products, lique?ed petroleum gas (LPG) and others declined 7% of the same period last year. As the oil price in international market continuously climbs up and creates new records, and the oil products price is under control by domestic market, as a result of that, the import of other oil products except crude oil has been substantially reduce…     

Review of China＇s Oil Market in the First Half

Market demand and supply
（1） Crude oil production continued to rise slowly, while the output of most oil products decreased increasingly.
① Domestic crude oil production increased slowly. Bases the limited domestic resources, combined with the purchasing price of crude oil being higher than the selling price of product oil as at present in China, the output of crude oil increased slowly from April to June in 2008.     

China’s Oil & Gas Imports and Exports in 2011

Average oil price in international market exceeded 110 US dollars and hit historic high in 2011,but China’s crude oil imports still rose to 273.78 million tons.Net imports of crude oil,refined oil,liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)and other oil products created another historic high.Oil dependency,i.e.the proportion of net oil imports to domestic consumption went on rising and rose to about 59.8% in 2011. Net imports of refined oil rose by 46% remarkably, indicating that the growth of processing capacity of domestic refineries lagged behind consumption of oil products.     

Current State and Development Trend of Oil Refining Industry in China

Generally, oil refining industry maintained steady growth in China in 2013, oil refining capacity continued to grow rapidly, growth rate of processed crude oil slowed down, and operating rate of refineries declined slightly： average scale of oil refining units was increased continuonsly, upgrading of oil quality sped up, and structure of refining units went on being adjusted; oil refining layout continued to be upgraded, and diversified market entity developed further： a batch of large newly- built and expanded oil refining projects were promoted further, and China became a hotspot and lightspot for construction and development of world oil refining industry.     

俄罗斯油气资源勘探开发发展战略

近年来,俄罗斯油气储量增速缓慢,石油产量增长迅速,天然气产量基本保持稳定,2010年,俄罗斯石油产量达到了近20年来的最高水平。文章在对俄罗斯区域性油气产量现状、俄罗斯油气田发现情况,以及俄罗斯大型油气公司在国家油气工业发展历程中所起的重要作用剖析的基础上,介绍了未来20年中,俄罗斯油气勘探开发长期发展战略的主要任务,以及2030年俄罗斯油气储量、产量长期规划,油气勘探开发投资长期规划及俄罗斯向亚太地区和中国油气出口长期规划。     

薄层底水油藏排水采油技术影响因素研究

系统研究了油藏地质参数与排采工艺参数对薄层底水油藏排水采油技术的影响,定量分析了各因素的作用机理及影响规律。研究表明,排水采油技术对于垂直水平渗透率比较小、底水能量较弱的薄层底水油藏适用性较强;隔夹层从距离油水界面-7.5~7.5 m变化时,排水采油累计产油量呈现缓慢增加—迅速减少—逐渐增加的变化规律,而累计增油量则呈现缓慢增加—迅速减少—迅速增加—逐渐降低的变化规律;当隔夹层中部位于排水井射孔位置时,隔夹层半径的增加有利于排水采油井控水产油,但位于排水井射孔位置以上时,累计产油量先减少后增加,排水采油增油量不断降低;采油井射孔位置越接近油水界面,排水采油增油量越大,产油量越小;最佳射孔打开程度为50%左右;排水层位距离油水界面不宜太远;排水速度与产液速度并非越大越好。研究结果可为现场合理实施排水采油技术提供参考依据。     

Changqing Becomes China’s Second Largest Oil and Gas Field

By December 19 2009, annual output of Changqing Oilfield located in western China surpassed 30 million tons oil equivalent, only second to Daqing Oilfield. Changqing Oilfield has the most late-development advantage in oil and gas growth and it has become China’s important strategic energy replacement area and the hub of onshore natural gas network. So it is irreplaceable in ensuring national energy security and developing the western region. After 40 years of hard work, Changqing Oilfield Company has tackle...     

稠油冷采泡沫油溶解气驱油藏开发动态数值模拟

稠油注蒸汽等热采开发方式面临着油层出砂、气窜和采油成本高等问题,而稠油冷采过程中形成的泡沫油,则使稠油油藏具有采油速度快、采收率高和生产气油比低等特点。在论述STARS模拟泡沫油机理及模型局限性的基础上,建立了稠油冷采泡沫油溶解气驱油藏模型。模拟结果表明,与常规溶解气驱油藏相比,泡沫油溶解气驱油藏具有生产气油比上升缓慢、累积产油量高等特点;在油相中气泡形成频率一致的情况下,气泡破裂速度越快,生产气油比越大,产油量越低;原油粘度越高,地层渗透率越低,开发效果越好,稳产时间越长。     

超稠油注气次生泡沫油生成机理及渗流特征

为探索泡沫油在超稠油油藏中的形成机理、渗流特征及驱油效果，采用准噶尔盆地西北缘乌夏断裂带侏罗系齐古组原油及油藏参数，进行注气形成泡沫油介质筛选及原油泡点压力测定实验，并开展注气微观可视化和填砂管驱油实验，深入解析注气形成泡沫油过程中的渗流特征，评价了注气泡沫油驱油效果。研究结果表明：①准噶尔盆地西北缘乌夏断裂带侏罗系齐古组原油泡点压力为9.7 MPa，拟泡点压力随着注气量的增加而增加，随温度的上升而上升，50℃的拟泡点压力随着CO₂注入量的增加而增大，压力上升速度较缓，储层具有较好的注气特性。②研究区的泡沫油渗流可分为5个阶段：无气泡阶段、气泡析出阶段、气泡扩张阶段、气泡聚并阶段和气泡消亡阶段。③研究区蒸汽+CO₂方式驱油开采过程较纯蒸汽填砂管驱的采收率可提升13.3%，开采过程中随着压力的释放，气泡数目逐渐增多，产油量逐步缓慢上升；当压力降至泡点压力后，气泡数目趋于平稳，形成较稳定的泡沫油，产油量大幅提升，为主力产油期；当压力释放至拟泡点压力后，气泡数目迅速下降，泡沫油逐渐消亡，产油量缓慢下降。     

泡沫油油藏数值模拟研究

泡沫油是一种含有大量分散性小气泡的稠油,衰竭开发泡沫油具有产量高、气油比低、地层压力下降缓慢和采收率高等特点。提出了利用数值模拟技术模拟泡沫油的关键方法,并建立了泡沫油数值模型。通过与常规溶解气驱数值模拟结果的比较以及与室内实验结果的拟合,从定性和定量2个方面证明了所建立模型的可靠性,并利用该模型进一步研究了泡沫油的驱油机理。泡沫油油藏开发过程中产生的分散气,一方面增加了原油的流动能力,当平均地层压力降低到泡点压力以下后仍然能够以初始产量生产1a以上;另一方面增加了体系的膨胀能,减缓了地层压力下降速度,地层压力从6.0MPa降低到5.1MPa的时间接近于从10.0MPa降低到6.0MPa的时间。     

Review and Outlook of China's Oil Market in 2015

Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil imports increased rapidly, and external dependence of crude oil and oil broke through 60% separately. The State adjusted the prices of gasoline and diesel timely and frequently, based on pricing mechanism. Price hike was higher than reduction. Oil market got weak, yet more stable. China increased the pace of reforms in marketization. In the second half, oil demand will increase continuously but with lower growth rate, oil production will rise more slowly, imports of crude oil and oil will keep on rising rapidly, gasoline and kerosene as well as diesel will witness a net import, and the market of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will be more stable.     

孤东油田馆陶组储层射孔过程伤害机理研究

储层在钻井、完井、采油、增产和修井的各个作业环节都有可能受到不同程度的污染和伤害，尤其是与地层配伍性差的各种入井液，将会造成地层污染，从而使油井产量下降，采收率降低，因此加强入井液的研究是保护油层、防止伤害的重要环节。为了能够在油气层和井筒之间产生一条清洁的通道，增加油气井的产能，加强了射孔液、射孔工艺、射孔损害机理、射孔参数的研究，尽量避免或减少射孔过程中对油气层的伤害，保护馆陶组砂岩油气藏，重点分析了孤东油田馆陶组储层在射孔过程中的损害机理和保护措施。     

物质平衡原理在特低渗透M油藏中的应用

特低渗透M油藏原始含水饱和度较高,弹性开采一段时间后,单井含水率呈现缓慢上升趋势.基于此生产特点,利用物质平衡原理,考虑岩石孔隙体积、流体体积以及高压物性参数随地层压力的变化,并结合油水相渗曲线,建立M油藏不同单井控制储量条件下的累计产水量增量与累计产油量、地层压力与累计产油量2套理论关系图版.文中以3口油井为例,实现...     

高渗透稀油强边水驱油藏含水井开采对策

春光油田具有埋藏浅、高孔、高渗、稀油、边水活跃的特点,开采关键是用好边水。应用矿场生产资料、系统试井资料、同类型油藏类比、油藏工程方法、数值模拟方法、渗流力学理论建立了动态监测系统,采取油藏工程方法监控边水推进速度和水线推进状况,不断调整优化工作制度,对见水井排8-20、排8-C3井实施干灰堵水,取得好效果。春光油田2005年开发以来产量稳步上升,保持自喷开采,边水水线缓慢、均匀推进,采油速度、采收率同创新水平。