Support for real-time decision making in mobile financial applications

Mobile users making real-time decisions based on current information need confidence that their context has been taken into consideration in producing the system’s recommendations. This chapter reviews current use of mobile technologies for context-aware real-time decision support. Specifically, it describes a framework for assessing the impact of mobility in decision making. The framework uses dynamic context model of data quality to represent uncertainties in the mobile decision-making environment. This framework can be used for developing visual interactive displays for communicating to the user relevant changes in data quality when working in mobile environments. As an illustration, this chapter proposes a real-time decision support procedure for on-the-spot assistance to the mobile consumer when choosing the best payment option to efficiently manage their budget. The proposed procedure is based on multi-attribute decision analysis, scenario reasoning, and a quality of data framework. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated with a mobile decision-support system prototype implementation. This article is part of the “Handbook on Decision Support Systems” edited by Frada Burstein and Clyde W. Holsapple (2008) Springer.     

Some principles of coordinated decision making in distributed systems

Conclusion The proposed approach leads to flexible decision support algorithms and procedures that easily adapt to changing requirements. The application of the proposed principles is illustrated in [12] with the object of allowing for the specific features of the problem and accelerating convergence of distributed decision support systems. The application of these principles to the construction of various control procedures and decision support scheme is demonstrated in [13–19]. At the present time, in connection with active transition to the market and operation in a rapidly changing reality, we can expect an increase in demand for algorithms, procedures, and schemes that divide the domains of competence, sharply delineate the domains of responsibility, and clearly separate the fields of action of the “center” and the “periphery” [11]. The need for such procedures will also be felt in financial management support [26–27] and in macro/micro economic modeling and forecasting [20–26]. This is due to the fact that in our rapidly changing world we are often unable to identify several separate criteria for optimization. We are often forced to look for a decision which is admissible by a whole range of formal and informal criteria and is stable under small perturbations of both the criteria and the external conditions [28–30]. Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 2, pp. 161–175, March–April, 1996.     

SoftPM: a software process management system reconciling formalism with easiness

Various formal approaches to process modeling and analysis have been proposed. With the emerging importance of practicality in this field, easiness in adopting formal technology should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a PSEE called SoftPM that is based on a high level Petri net formalism for process modeling. To overcome the difficulty in using this formalism, SoftPM exploits a multi-level modeling mechanism for the representation of software processes. SoftPM supports three different levels for process representation. They are cognitive, MAM net, and Pr/T net. Each level has different roles in SoftPM. The cognitive-level modeling provides the means of getting free from difficulties in manipulating the modeling formalism. MAM net takes the role of core modeling formalism in SoftPM. Finally, Pr/T nets support the low-level modeling formalism as an existing Petri-net class. Moreover, SoftPM offers various analysis techniques to aid managerial decision making, as well as conventional Petri-net analysis techniques. Using a Java-based thin client/server architecture, SoftPM smoothly supports execution at distributed heterogeneous platforms over the Internet.     

Experience-Driven Model of Decision-Making Processes in Project Teams

This article presents a model of decision-making processes in project teams. Project teams constitute a specific type of organization appointed to implement a project. Decisions made by project teams result from the methods of project management and best management practices. The authors have undertaken the task of formalizing these processes using the classical method of constructing decision trees. It has been established that this method cannot be fully exploited because the decision-making paths need changing (the decision tree must be dynamically generated after every decision). Therefore, the authors applied a method for collecting experiences, the Set of Experience Knowledge Structure (SOEKS), to support the structure of a decision tree. This method was used to support decision-making processes regarding the selection of methods and technologies of project management and to classify the location decisions resulting from exceeding levels of particulate matter.     

一般军事决策过程的协调理论模型

联合作战要求参战各方克服组织、经验、资源和技能的差异,共同协作。基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模有助于理解作战活动的共同结构,有助于识别作战活动的差异及其形成差异的原因。在分析协调理论应用的基础上,根据基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法,使用UML2.0建立了一般军事决策过程的协调理论模型,并着重考虑了协调活动及其依赖、协调机制及其异常处理等方面的内容。模型的建立有利于分析军事决策过程中的核心任务及其依赖属性,为指挥员准确地制订和确定作战方案提供依据,从而提高军事决策过程的适应性。     

Situational influences on ethical decision-making in an IT context

Processes of ethical decision-making are thought to depend on the issue faced when making the decision. We examined the processes by examining student's reactions to five scenarios involving IT use. Data were collected using a questionnaire following a group discussion. The results showed that ethical decision-making processes did indeed vary by scenario, suggesting that a single-issue approach is inadequate for studying ethical decision-making. Perceived importance of the ethical issue was a factor in the scenarios, but it did not have an all-inclusive influence on the decision-making of the participants. The results were considered in the context of theories and Mason's ethical issues of the information age. We offer advice to managers on how to limit unethical behavior.     

An interactive computer-based interface to support the discovery of individuals’ mental representations and preferences in decisions problems: An application to travel behavior

Growing emphasis is currently given in decision modeling on process data to capture behavioral mechanisms that ground decision-making processes. Nevertheless, advanced applications to elicit such data are still lacking. The Causal Network Elicitation Technique interview and card-game, both face-to-face interviews, are examples of a behavioral process method to obtain individuals’ decision-making by eliciting temporary mental representations of particular problems. However, to portray and model these representations into formal modeling approaches, such as Bayesian decision networks, an extensive set of parameters has to be gathered for each individual. Thus, data collection procedures for large sample groups can be costly and time consuming. This paper reports on the methodological conversion and enhancement of the existing elicitation methods into a computer-based interface that allows to not only uncover individuals’ mental representations but also to automate the generation of preference parameter elicitation questions. Results of such studies can be used to understand individuals’ constructs and beliefs with respect to decision alternatives, predict individuals’ decision behavior at a disaggregate level, and to assess behavioral changes due to differences in contexts and constraints.     

Development of agent system based on decision model for creating an ambient space

This paper describes a decision model for an autonomous agent that provides an inhabitant with comfort based on information network technologies that connect home electric appliances with household equipment. The inhabitant enjoys the benefit of comfort, while he pays the cost for keeping that comfort. The autonomous agent should decide and control household equipment considering that cost from the inhabitant’s viewpoint. Thus, we utilized a representation scheme called an “influence diagram” that enabled us to model the decision-making process of the agent from the inhabitant’s point of view. First, decision modeling using the influence diagram is presented via an example. The presented model consists of three information-processing modules: a module for estimating the situation of an inhabitant based on information from home networks, a module for evaluating comfort of the inhabitant, and a module for making decisions that maximize the utility of the inhabitant from both the viewpoints of comfort and the cost paid for that comfort. Next, an experiment for verifying whether the presented model is effective or not, and its results are described. Finally, our model of the agent is discussed in relation to social intelligence design by investigating the interactive processes between the agent and the inhabitant.     

The effect of system feedback and decision context on value-based decision-making behavior

Relatively few studies in MIS research have examined systems to support value-based decision-making behavior. The increasing complexity of the decision environment necessitates more reliance on personal values by decision-makers, thus making it an important component to study when considering the design of systems to aid decision-making. This paper describes an exploratory experiment that was conducted to determine how individual value-based decision-making behavior can be influenced by an information system through the use of value specific feedback. It also examines the role of decision context on value-based decisions. The results indicate that value-based decision-making behavior can be influenced and discusses operant theory and reactance theory as useful predictors of decision-maker response to feedback in different decision contexts.     

A Lack of Insight: An Experimental Analysis of R&D Managers’ Decision Making in Innovation Portfolio Management

This study analyses the decision to exploit an innovation project and investigates differences in individuals’ evaluations of project attributes in the context of innovation project portfolio management. A conjoint field experiment was used to collect data on exploitation decisions made by 126 research and development (R&D) managers to test how managers evaluate specific project attributes in the context of innovation project portfolio management. I analyse the relative power and popularity of profitability, strategy, uncertainty and social dimensions of the portfolio while R&D managers exploit an innovation project. Moreover, using social judgement theory, I analyse actual exploitation processes (i.e., the innovation attributes an R&D manager considers while he or she is making an exploitation decision) and self‐reported decision‐making attributes (i.e., managers’ self‐reported data). The data underline that R&D managers value specific project attributes more and others less, and therefore find disparities in innovation project portfolio decision making. Based on this study's results, decision makers are better able to reflect and understand the influence of specific project attributes. Therefore, they should investigate established decision‐making processes which can help them to improve portfolio performance.     

Introducing decision-aware business processes

Business processes are designed to smoothly operate under multiple contexts (or business situations). Each context technically implies taking a different course of action. Be that as it may, going for the most appropriate action is still left up to the business process participant without any kind of assistance. Such a situation demonstrates that there is a lack of a context-aware decision-making feature. This paper addresses the issue of enabling a context-aware decision-making within the frame of business processes. We combine the concepts of business process, context-awareness and decision-making to introduce a new concept of Decision-Aware Business Processes in which decision partitions are the cornerstones. A decision partition reacts to the collected contextual parameters by selecting or recommending the most appropriate decision(s). In fact, the focus of this research is to introduce a new formalism for designing these partitions by means of patterns. Throughout our approach, each proposed pattern leads to building decision partitions in a straight-forward fashion. An overall example is proposed to illustrate our approach. It is inspired from the banking industry and introduces a decision-aware business process that handles loan applications. To sum up, whether seasoned, novice or in-between, business process participants will be able to save time in taking action(s). Moreover, the workflow becomes no longer stagnant across the business process. Instead, it dynamically adapts itself to each new set of business requirements imposed by the collected contextual input(s).     

Decisions in software development projects management. An exploratory study

Given the importance of software in today's world, the development of software systems is a key activity that requires complex management scenarios. This article explores the implications of hard decisions in the context of software development projects (SDPs). More in deep, it focuses on the emotional consequences of making hard decisions in IT organisations. Complex SDPs involve a great variety of actors. This fact entails morale, feelings and emotions, which play an important role for communication, interaction and, ultimately, decision making. The aim of the article is twofold. First (Study 1), to identify which are the most important hard decisions in SDPS. Second (Study 2), to study the influence of emotions on decision-making processes (Study 2). Findings show the complex emotional consequences and difficulties that managers must face in hard decision-making processes.     

Decision making with multiple objectives using GAI networks

This paper deals with preference representation on combinatorial domains and preference-based recommendation in the context of multicriteria or multiagent decision making. The alternatives of the decision problem are seen as elements of a product set of attributes and preferences over solutions are represented by generalized additive decomposable (GAI) utility functions modeling individual preferences or criteria. Thanks to decomposability, utility vectors attached to solutions can be compiled into a graphical structure closely related to junction trees, the so-called GAI network. Using this structure, we present preference-based search algorithms for multicriteria or multiagent decision making. Although such models are often non-decomposable over attributes, we actually show that GAI networks are still useful to determine the most preferred alternatives provided preferences are compatible with Pareto dominance. We first present two algorithms for the determination of Pareto-optimal elements. Then the second of these algorithms is adapted so as to directly focus on the preferred solutions. We also provide results of numerical tests showing the practical efficiency of our procedures in various contexts such as compromise search and fair optimization in multicriteria or multiagent problems.     

Intelligent multi-criteria fuzzy group decision-making for situation assessments

Organizational decisions and situation assessment are often made in groups, and decision and assessment processes involve various uncertain factors. To increase efficiently group decision-making, this study presents a new rational–political model as a systematic means of supporting group decision-making in an uncertain environment. The model takes advantage of both rational and political models and can handle inconsistent assessment, incomplete information and inaccurate opinions in deriving the best solution for the group decision under a sequential framework. The model particularly identifies three uncertain factors involved in a group decision-making process: decision makers’ roles, preferences for alternatives, and judgments for assessment-criteria. Based on this model, an intelligent multi-criteria fuzzy group decision-making method is proposed to deal with the three uncertain factors described by linguistic terms. The proposed method uses general fuzzy numbers and aggregates these factors into a group satisfactory decision that is in a most acceptable degree of the group. Inference rules are particularly introduced into the method for checking the consistence of individual preferences. Finally, a real case-study on a business situation assessment is illustrated by the proposed method.     

一种面向主动服务的情境觉察计算方法

We focus on modeling and computing of aware context with uncertainty for making dynamic decision during seamless mobile service. We re-examine formalism of random set, which is not finite-set statistics (FISST), argue the limitations of the direct numerical approaches, give new modeling mode based on random sets theory (RST) for aware context, and propose our computing approach of modeled aware context. In addition, we extend classic D-S evidence theory after considering reliability, time efficiency, relativity of context, and compare these two kinds of relative computing methods for uncertain context. By comparing, the validity of new context-aware computing approach based on improved random set theory (IRST) or extended D-S evidence theory (EDS) for proactive service has been tested.     

一种在线建模方法的研究

针对一类系统提出了一种通用性较强的建模与决策方法以及在线生成系统模型的 途径.该法可广泛用于静态、动态、线性与非线性系统的建模与决策.     

一种面向主动服务的情境觉察计算方法

We focus on modeling and computing of aware con- text with uncertainty for making dynamic decision during seam- less mobile service.We re-examine formalism of random set, which is not finite-set statistics (FISST),argue the limitations of the direct numerical approaches,give new modeling mode based on random sets theory (RST) for aware context,and propose our computing approach of modeled aware context.In addition, we extend classic D-S evidence theory after considering relia- bility,time efficiency,relativity of context,and compare these two kinds of relative computing methods for uncertain context. By comparing,the validity of new context-aware computing ap- proach based on improved random set theory (IRST) or extended D-S evidence theory (EDS) for proactive service has been tested.