The impact of climate variability on water and energy demand: the case of South African local governments

There is a growing need to understand how climate change impacts not only on people's livelihoods but also on the level and cost of local government infrastructure required to provide basic commodities such as water and energy. In South Africa, few studies have examined the impact of climate change on operations of local governments. This paper examines the impact of rainfall variability on municipalities’ water and energy demand. A non‐linear relationship between water and energy demand and rainfall variability was found. The results suggest that, by influencing the operations and budgets of local governments, climate change is a real threat to local governments. The local governments need to be proactively involved in the efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change. This is particularly important in developing countries where the impact of climate change is more severe than in developed countries, yet adaptation and mitigation capabilities in these countries are weak.     

Evaluating the effects of climate change on the water resources for the city of Birmingham,UK

Climate change is expected to affect precipitation patterns and may therefore impact upon water resource availability. The city of Birmingham in central England receives its public water supply from a catchment in the Elan Valley, mid‐Wales. Baseline and future climate projections generated from a stochastic weather generator within the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2009 and a daily soil water balance model (WaSim) were used to determine the potential impacts of climate change on hydrologically effective rainfall (HER). Annual HER is likely to decrease from baseline conditions (> 90% likelihood that HER will be reduced), with more frequent and persistent very dry spells and increasing seasonality. It is concluded that climate change will put additional stress on water resources for the city of Birmingham so that, coupled with expected increases in demand, adaptation measures to increase supply and/or reduce demand are likely to be needed.     

Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts

This study developed a new framework to quantify spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. Four hydrologic vulnerability indices - potential flood damage (PFDC), potential drought damage (PDDC), potential water quality deterioration (PWQDC), and watershed evaluation index (WEIC) - were modified to quantify flood damage, drought damage, water quality deterioration, and overall watershed risk considering the impact of climate change, respectively. The concept of sustainability in the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was applied in selecting all appropriate indicators (criteria) of climate change impacts. In the examination of climate change, future meteorological data was obtained using CGCM3 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model), and future stream run-off and water quality were simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program — Fortran). The four modified indices were then calculated using TOPSIS, a multi-attribute method of decision analysis. As a result, the ranking obtained can be changed in consideration of climate change impacts. This study represents a new attempt to quantify hydrologic vulnerability in a manner that takes into account both climate change impacts and the concept of sustainability.     

The water‐energy nexus: future water resource availability and its implications on UK thermal power generation

An increasing population coupled with the uncertain, but increasingly likely, impacts of climate change have led to a heightened level of global academic attention to the interdependencies that exist between the water and energy infrastructure networks. However, to date there has been limited research considering the water‐energy nexus within a UK context. This article reviews the global and national literature to identify how a future lack of available water resource will impact upon the UK thermal power generation fleet, both in terms of freshwater resource and environmental constraints. It concludes that a combination of freshwater resource management and adaptation to use alternative water sources will be key in mitigating and adapting to climate impacts.     

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation—The importance of an integrated approach

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices.The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate” the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects.     

水库大坝退役拆除及对生态环境影响研究

尽管国内外的水库工程在防洪、灌溉、发电、供水、航运、水产养殖等方面发挥了巨大作用,但随着使用寿命、功能退化、加固维修费用高等,部分水库大坝将退役或被拆除。了解关于拆坝带来的潜在影响的一条途径是回顾在本河流系统上修建大坝所造成的后果。首先从水库大坝对气候、水质、生物、水库淤积等方面的影响综述了水库大坝的修建及其环境影响。结合国内外实际,综述了我国和美国的拆坝现状,分析了大坝拆除的原因以及拆坝对生态环境影响的时空影响,综述了拆坝后评估生态环境影响的方法,并首次对国内某水库进行了河流生境评估调研。结果表明,水库大坝的兴建与退役拆除均是复杂的系统工程,水库大坝退役拆除及对生态环境影响研究具有重要的意义,我国在这方面刚刚起步。     

Farmers’ willingness‐to‐pay towards soil and water conservation measures in agro‐ecosystems of Chotanagpur Plateau,India

Lack of importance given to farmers’ knowledge and perceptions towards soil and water conservation (SWC) is a major factor responsible for failure of conservation programs. The study explores farmers understanding of SWC and further adds to the limited empirical evidence towards farmers’ willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for SWC. Contingent valuation survey conducted to elicit the WTP (cash and labor days) for SWC draws attention to the importance of adopting SWC to ensure year‐round water availability. The willing households of the area could generate US$1302.2 and/or 1207 labor days monthly. The WTP (cash) showed strong positive influence by qualification, total income, off‐farm income and previous irrigation farming experience; while WTP (labor days) showed strong negative influence by age, qualification, dependency ratio, market access and livestock holding. The study will be useful for decision makers regarding investments and policy purposes for soil–water conservation measures in agricultural lands of developing countries.     

Treatment of drinking water residuals: comparing sedimentation and dissolved air flotation performance with optimal cation ratios

Spent filter backwash water (SFBW) and clarifier sludge generally comprise the majority of the waste residual volume generated and in relative terms, these can be collectively referred to as combined filter backwash water (CFBW). CFBW is essentially a low-solids wastewater with metal hydroxide flocs that are typically light and slow to settle. This study evaluates the impact of adding calcium and magnesium carbonates to CFBW in terms of assessing the impacts on the sedimentation and DAF separation processes. Representative CFBW samples were collected from two surface water treatment plants (WTP): Lake Major WTP (Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada) and Victoria Park WTP (Truro, Nova Scotia, Canada). Bench-scale results indicated that improvements in the CFBW settled water quality could be achieved through the addition of the divalent cations, thereby adjusting the monovalent to divalent (M:D) ratios of the wastewater. In general, the DAF process required slightly higher M:D ratios than the sedimentation process. The optimum M:D ratios for DAF and sedimentation were determined to be 1:1 and 0.33:1, respectively. It was concluded that the optimisation of the cation balance between monovalent cations (e.g., Na(+), K(+)) and added divalent cations (i.e., Ca(2+), Mg(2+)) aided in the settling mechanism through charge neutralisation-precipitation. The increase in divalent cation concentrations within the waste residual stream promoted destabilisation of the negatively charged colour molecules within the CFBW, thereby causing the colloidal content to become more hydrophobic.     

Modelling the Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Grande Dixence Hydro-Electricity Scheme, Switzerland

For mountain communities which depend upon glacierfed hydro-electric power schemes as an important source of energy, climate change poses a considerable threat. However, relatively few studies have examined this threat by investigating the joint impacts on meltwater production and energy use. In this paper, a simple water-balance model is used to combine the results of ice-melt and energy-demand models to estimate the water level for the Grande Dixence reservoir, Switzerland. The potential impact of climate change on the scheme is also assessed using a regional climate-change scenario.     

Moderating effects of the geometry of reservoirs on the relation between urban land use and water quality

Edges mediate the material flux between adjacent systems. This mediating effect of edges is strongly tied to the complexity of the adjacent shapes. Land use within a watershed has a direct impact on the water quality of adjacent aquatic systems. Hydrological processes carry material produced by land-use activities into aquatic ecosystems through the edges of the ecosystem. Therefore, the geometry of aquatic ecosystems theoretically affects the relationship between land use and water quality. This study investigates whether the shape complexity of reservoirs moderates the direct impact of land use on the water quality of adjacent reservoirs. A moderation model was adopted to measure the shape effects, and 153 reservoirs were randomly sampled with a consideration of reservoir size (surface area), geographic location, and data availability. With a focus on urban land use, we used GIS to measure land-use types within a 1 km buffer of reservoir boundaries. The shape complexity of sampled reservoirs was measured using fractal dimensions. Land uses and shape complexity were then regressed to measure water quality parameters such as chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). Correlation analysis revealed that the shapes of reservoirs are likely to be simple where urban land use dominates the areas close to reservoirs. Use of the standard regression model indicated that the increasing shape complexity of reservoirs significantly reduces the concentration of BOD, COD, and TP within reservoir water. Moderation models for BOD, COD, TN, and TP suggest that shape complexity can considerably relieve the negative impacts on water quality of urban land use in areas adjacent to reservoirs. The results of this study highlight the need to focus on shoreline management in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of land use on lakes and reservoirs.     

Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens

Herbivores and pathogens impact the species composition, ecosystem function, and socioeconomic value of forests. Herbivores and pathogens are an integral part of forests, but sometimes produce undesirable effects and a degradation of forest resources. In the United States, a few species of forest pests routinely have significant impacts on up to 20 million ha of forest with economic costs that probably exceed $1 billion/year. Climatic change could alter patterns of disturbance from herbivores and pathogens through: (1) direct effects on the development and survival of herbivores and pathogens; (2) physiological changes in tree defenses; and (3) indirect effects from changes in the abundance of natural enemies (e.g. parasitoids of insect herbivores), mutualists (e.g. insect vectors of tree pathogens), and competitors. Because of their short life cycles, mobility, reproductive potential, and physiological sensitivity to temperature, even modest climate change will have rapid impacts on the distribution and abundance of many forest insects and pathogens. We identify 32 syndromes of biotic disturbance in North American forests that should be carefully evaluated for their responses to climate change: 15 insect herbivores, browsing mammals; 12 pathogens; 1 plant parasite; and 3 undiagnosed patterns of forest decline. It is probable that climatic effects on some herbivores and pathogens will impact on biodiversity, recreation, property value, forest industry, and even water quality. Some scenarios are beneficial (e.g. decreased snow cover may increase winter mortality of some insect pests), but many are detrimental (e.g. warming tends to accelerate insect development rate and facilitate range expansions of pests and climate change tends to produce a mismatch between mature trees and their environment, which can increase vulnerability to herbivores and pathogens). Changes in forest disturbance can produce feedback to climate through affects on water and carbon flux in forest ecosystems; one alarming scenario is that climate warming may increase insect outbreaks in boreal forests, which would tend to increase forest fires and exacerbate further climate warming by releasing carbon stores from boreal ecosystems. We suggest a list of research priorities that will allow us to refine these risk assessments and adopt forest management strategies that anticipate changes in biotic disturbance regimes and mitigate the ecological, social, and economic risks.     

Drought disturbance from climate change: response of United States forests

Predicted changes in climate have raised concerns about potential impacts on terrestrial forest ecosystem productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and the availability of water resources. This review summarizes characteristics of drought typical to the major forest regions of the United States, future drought projections, and important features of plant and forest community response to drought. Research needs and strategies for coping with future drought are also discussed. Notwithstanding uncertainties surrounding the magnitude and direction of future climate change, and the net impact on soil water availability to forests, a number of conclusions can be made regarding the sensitivity of forests to future drought. The primary response will be a reduction in net primary production and stand water use, which are driven by reductions in stomatal conductance. Mortality of small stature plants (i.e. seedlings and saplings) is a likely consequence of severe drought. In comparison, deep rooting and substantial reserves of carbohydrates and nutrients make mature trees less susceptible to water limitations caused by severe or prolonged drought. However, severe or prolonged drought may render even mature trees more susceptible to insects or disease. Drought-induced reductions in decomposition rates may cause a buildup of organic material on the forest floor, with ramifications for fire regimes and nutrient cycling. Although early model predictions of climate change impacts suggested extensive forest dieback and species migration, more recent analyses suggest that catastrophic dieback will be a local phenomenon, and changes in forest composition will be a relatively gradual process. Better climate predictions at regional scales, with a higher temporal resolution (months to days), coupled with carefully designed, field-based experiments that incorporate multiple driving variables (e.g. temperature and CO2), will advance our ability to predict the response of different forest regions to climate change.     

Estimating the impacts of climate change and urbanization on building performance

Over the past 15 years, much scientific work has been published on the potential human impacts on climates. For their Third Assessment Report in 2001, the United Nations International Programme on Climate Change developed a set of economic development scenarios, which were then run with the four major general circulation models (GCM) to estimate the anthropogenesis-forced climate change. These GCMs produce worldwide grids of predicted monthly temperature, cloud, and precipitation deviations from the period 1961–1990. As this period is the same used for several major typical meteorological year data sets, these typical data sets can be used as a starting point for modifying weather files to represent predicted climate change. Over the past 50 years, studies of urban heat islands (UHI) or urbanization have provided detailed measurements of the diurnal and seasonal patterns and differences between urban and rural climatic conditions. While heat islands have been shown to be a function of both population and microclimatic and site conditions, they can be generalized into a predictable diurnal and seasonal pattern. Although the scientific literature is full of studies looking at the impact of climate change driven by human activity, there is very little research on the impact of climate change or urban heat islands on building operation and performance across the world. This article presents the methodology used to create weather files which represent climate change scenarios in 2100 and heat island impacts today. For this study, typical and extreme meteorological weather data were created for 25 locations (20 climate regions) to represent a range of predicted climate change and heat island scenarios for building simulation. Then prototypical small office buildings were created to represent typical, good, and low-energy practices around the world. The simulation results for these prototype buildings provide a snapshot view of the potential impacts of the set of climate scenarios on building performance. This includes location-specific building response, such as fuel swapping as heating and cooling ratios change, impacts on environmental emissions, impacts on equipment use and longevity comfort issues, and how low-energy building design incorporating renewables can significantly mitigate any potential climate variation. In this article, examples of how heat island and climate change scenarios affect diurnal patterns are presented as well as the annual energy performance impacts for three of the 25 locations. In cold climates, the net change to annual energy use due to climate change will be positive – reducing energy use on the order of 10% or more. For tropical climates, buildings will see an increase in overall energy use due to climate change, with some months increasing by more than 20% from current conditions. Temperate, mid-latitude climates will see the largest change but it will be a swapping from heating to cooling, including a significant reduction of 25% or more in heating energy and up to 15% increase in cooling energy. Buildings which are built to current standards such as ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2004 will still see significant increases in energy demand over the twenty-first century. Low-energy buildings designed to minimize energy use will be the least affected, with impacts in the range of 5–10%. Unless the way buildings are designed, built, and operated changes significantly over the next decades, buildings will see substantial operating cost increases and possible disruptions in an already strained energy supply system.     

Impact of climate change on meteorological,hydrological and agricultural droughts in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Srepok Basin,Vietnam

The objective of this study is to assess future changes in meteorological, hydrology and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Srepok River Basin, a subbasin of LMB, using three drought indices; standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI). The well‐calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as a simulation tool to estimate the features of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts. The climate data for the 2016–2040 period is obtained from four different regional climate models; HadGEM3‐RA, SNU‐MM5, RegCM4 and YSU‐RSM, which are downscaled from the HadGEM2‐AO GCM. The results show that the severity, duration and frequency of droughts are predicted to increase in the near future for this region. Moreover, the meteorological drought is less sensitive to climate change than the hydrological and agricultural droughts; however, it has a stronger correlation with the hydrological and agricultural droughts as the accumulation period is increased. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin.     

Modelling the impacts of climate change on surface runoff in small Mediterranean catchments: empirical evidence from Greece

During the last decades, a major factor that analysts and policy makers take into account in the assessment of the environment is climate change. This global physical process is expected to cause problems in natural and human environment. Thus, modelling climate change impacts may lead to prevention policies to minimize the degradation of life quality because of lack of water resources in the future. This study implicates Geographical Information System (GIS) and hydrological modelling tools to various scenarios of climate change such as the increase of temperature the decrease of rainfall, or even both of them, to estimate the potential impact of climate change on surface runoff in a typical catchment in Andros Island, Greece. Primary results indicate a proportional runoff decrease in the next 50 years because of global climate changes.     

Sustainability of Scottish water quality in the early 21st century

This paper reviews some of the current water quality issues relating to the surface waters of Scotland and highlights some of the key issues likely to be significant over the next decade. The sustainable management of water quality requires an appreciation of the temporal and spatial assessment of the resource, together with an identification of reference or natural conditions from which to determine change, and the elucidation of the drivers of change. Only through this integrated approach, can appropriate management strategies be developed and prioritised, bearing in mind that impacts may be decoupled from sources in both time and space. This paper highlights recent trends in water quality (from a hydrochemical perspective) with separation into three broad groups: rivers, lochs and estuaries. For rivers, a general reduction in concentration of determinants that are more indicative of urban point sources (phosphorus, ammonium, suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand etc.) is apparent, while in more agriculturally-dominated areas, an increase in concentration of solutes that are considered more diffuse in origin, (e.g. nitrate) is reported. The increasing contribution to total loads from diffuse pollutants is a priority area for both research and policy. Current scientific challenges are to define the most appropriate spatial context within which regional water quality issues can be monitored and managed. It is likely that future emphasis will be placed on making an initial ecoregion based grouping in conjunction with physically defined catchment, which will be used to quantify site-specific impacts. Such an organisational approach will provide a mechanism that enables a targeted monitoring strategy to be developed. This will allow the establishment of ecologically based targets for water quality, and an improved understanding the biogeochemistry of pollution reversibility and ecosystem recovery. It is also fundamental to the development of tools through which to predict the time scale and magnitude of any recovery, such that environmental benefit can be optimised against realistic socio-economic constraints. The inter-relations between water quality objectives and the development of legislation for water resources management in Europe are discussed.     

Biostability and disinfectant by-product formation in drinking water blended with UF-treated filter backwash water

The overall objective of this study was to investigate the impact of blending membrane-treated water treatment plant (WTP) residuals with plant-filtered water on finished water quality in terms of biostability and disinfectant by-product (DBP) formation. Filter backwash water (FBWW) was treated with a pilot-scale ultrafiltration (UF) membrane to produce permeate that was blended with plant-finished water. The batch studies involved storing samples for a specified time with a disinfectant residual to simulate residence time in the distribution system. Both chlorinated and non-chlorinated FBWW streams were evaluated, and the experimental design incorporated free chlorine, monochloramine, and chlorine dioxide in parallel to a model system that did not receive a disinfectant dose. The results of the study found that blending 10% UF-treated FBWW with plant-filtered water did not have an impact on water biostability as monitored with heterotrophic plate counts (HPCs) or DBP concentrations as monitored by TTHM and HAA5 concentrations. However, the presence of preformed THM and HAA species found in chlorinated FBWW streams may result in higher levels of initial DBP concentrations in blended water matrices, and could have a significant impact on finished water quality in terms of meeting specific DBP guidelines or regulations.     

Effects of climate events driven hydrodynamics on dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir in Taiwan

The seasonal concentrations of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir were studied over a period of one year. The study site was the Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan. It is a dam-constructed reservoir with a surface area of 10.24 km(2) and a mean depth of 39.6 m, with a maximum depth of 113.5 m near the dam. It was found that certain weather and climate events, such as typhoons in summer and autumn, as well as cold fronts in winter, can deliver oxygen-rich water, and consequently have strong impacts on the dissolved oxygen level. The typhoon turbidity currents and winter density currents played important roles in supplying oxygen to the middle and bottom water, respectively. The whole process can be understood by the hydrodynamics driven by weather and climate events. This work provides the primary results of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir, and the knowledge is useful in understanding water quality in subtropical regions.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100. These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change.