Another hurricane, high prices and more chaos in Iraq

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Another hurricane, this time called Rita, battered the US Gulf Coast, sending oil prices up worldwide, though not to the heights seen when its predecessor, Katrina, arrived. As before, a large swathe of US refinery capacity was temporarily put out of action: this time mainly in Texas. For around a week in late September, when Rita arrived, nearly 4.1 mn bpd of crude distillation capacity was taken off-line. At the same time, some 0.9 mn bpd was still unusable as a result of the depredations of Katrina in late August, leaving the US briefly minus nearly one third of its refinery capacity. The situation improved as some capacity was brought slowly back on-line, but by the beginning of October around 3.0 mn bpd was still not back in operation. The main price effects of Katrina were on gasoline, prompting demands in the Congress and elsewhere for investigations into overcharging by refiners and retailers ( see 'Focus'). A record weekly increase in the first week of September propelled the average price of regular gasoline across the US to $3.07/gall. Rita's principal effect was on heating oil, which went up in the last week of September by nearly 20% to $2.51/gall in the US Gulf. US crude oil prices remained below their immediate post-Katrina record highs ( see 'The Month in Brief', September 2005 ) despite the loss of the entire 1.5 mn bpd production in the Gulf of Mexico following Rita's arrival.     

Even more price records, new refineries and a technical hitch at the IPE

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
In a final burst before retreating, oil prices once again entered record territory. WTI went to $58.28 a barrel, while Brent shot up to $57.65. In Asia, meanwhile, Malaysia's benchmark Tapis grade climbed above $61.00. The scramble to buy crude oil finally began to show up in stock levels, however, and US inventory figures showing an 8% year-on-year rise at the start of April suggested that fears of a crude oil shortage were overplayed. Prices fell sharply leaving Brent and WTI just above $51.00 a barrel. An announcement by OPEC's president, Ahmad Fahad Al Sabah, that the cartel would produce an additional 500,000 bpd in May helped to relax fears further. Product prices remained relatively more robust on a combination of high demand in the US and Asia and unscheduled refinery maintenance in the US.     

More price records, Iraqi tensions and oil companies in court

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices ended October at record levels. Spot month Brent futures hit $91.18/bbl before settling at a record $90.63/bbl on 31st October. WTI went as high as $95.28/bbl before settling-again at a record-of $94.53/bbl. Traders were worried about political tensions in the Middle East and US markets were spooked by a fall in crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex crude. Product prices rose sharply, boosted by a fire at the Coryton refinery in England. Gasoline barges rose above $800/t in North West Europe. Across the world in Asia, jet fuel went above $100/bbl for the first time in Singapore, just as the first Airbus 380 airliner completed its maiden flight from Singapore to Sydney.     

Hurricane in US, chaos in Iraq and even more price records

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
A hurricane named Katrina devastated oil installations along the US Gulf Coast as well as the city of New Orleans, sending oil prices to new record levels. Nearly 1.4 mn bpd of offshore oil production was shut-in, along with 8.3 bn cfd of the Gulf's natural gas. More production was closed down onshore along with nearly 2.4 mn bpd of refining capacity. Crude and product prices shot up worldwide. The 30th August saw October WTI close at a record $69.81/bbl, having traded earlier in the day up to $70.85/bbl. On 31st August, Nymex gasoline closed at a new high of $2.6145/gall as the Gulf Coast's refineries remained off-line. Gulf spot prices rose above $3/gall. The following day, October heating oil set a new record by closing at $2.1985/gall. Records fell outside the US, with Tapis at $70.97 on 31st August. The previous day saw IPE October Brent settle at a record $67.57, whilst the November and December contracts both saw trades above $69.00/bbl. Natural gas prices also moved into record territory in the US, topping $12 per mn BTU on Nymex during the morning of 30th August.     

Bombs, hurricanes and more chaos in Iraq

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The oil market's roller-coaster continued into July with rising prices for US gasoline ahead of the 4th July holiday and a jump in prices for WTI on fears of hurricane damage to US Gulf production. August Nymex gasoline settled at a record $1.8056/gall on the 7th July as figures were released showing US demand at record weekly levels. On the same date, a series of fatal terrorist bomb attacks in London propelled IPE Brent to its highest-ever level of $60.70/bbl whilst, in Asia, Dubai traded at an all-time high of $55.80/bbl. The market's strength rapidly proved to be evanescent. Within hours of the London bombings, Brent had given up $5.00/bbl. Crude oil and gasoline prices eased in subsequent days and middle distillate lost some of its recent strength relative to gasoline as US stock figures showed a steady improvement in inventory levels. Volatility returned towards the end of the month on worries about gasoline shortages in both the US and Europe and more price records fell on 1st August on news of the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia. WTI gained $1.00 on the day, settling at a record $61.57/bbl on Nymex, having been even higher during the day's trading, at $62.30/bbl. On the IPE in London, Brent rose to its highest-ever intra-day level of $60.98/bbl, before settling slightly lower. Some product prices also went into previously uncharted territory: notably jet fuel in North West Europe, which went above $600/t.     

Record prices

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications ( see 'Focus', March 2006 ) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state.     

No OPEC increase, Iraqi output up and Mexican exports down

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices fell back early in December as fears grew that high prices were about to push the US and other markets into recession. Brent fell back below $90/bbl ( see 'Oil Price Review') but the fall proved only temporary and prices began to rise sharply towards the end of the year. OPEC ministers did nothing to ease market fears when, at their meeting on 5th December in Abu Dhabi, they decided to leave the organization's output ceiling unchanged at 27,253,000 bpd. The ministers rejected calls from consuming countries to produce more oil, declaring in their communiqué that the market was "well-supplied", with stocks at "comfortable levels". The high level of prices was blamed on what the communiqué called "speculative activity" by financial funds and others. Angola and Ecuador were brought into the production-sharing system, being given output quotas respectively of 1.9 mn bpd and 520,000 bpd.     

Violence in Iraq and Nigeria, OPEC cuts output, admits Angola

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Iraq ended 2006 with its crude oil exports at zero, its oil industry in need of "urgent attention", according to a report delivered to the US President and Congress, and its domestic security situation spiralling out of control. The execution of former President Saddam Hussain on 30th December failed to pacify the country, as the government appears to have hoped, as more than 2,000 Iraqi civilians died during the month of December and US military casualties passed the 3,000 mark. Crude oil exports ceased as bad weather closed the Persian Gulf terminals of Basrah and Khor al-Amaya. Exports via Ceyhan were already at a standstill, following recent attacks on the pipeline from Kirkuk. The country's main refinery, at Baiji was closed for part of December following threats to workers there and an attack on its main supply pipeline from Kirkuk. The government tried to relieve the resulting shortage of refined products by arranging to import some 6,300 bpd of fuel from Iran. The black-market prices of some refined products were reported by the Arabic newspaper, al-Hayat to have reached record levels. The Oil Ministry estimated that Iraq's oil exports were 1.6 mn bpd during 2006. Iraq has agreed to supply Jordan with 10,000 bpd of crude oil at a discount of around $18/bbl.     

OPEC quotas unchanged, Nigeria won't sell crude and Iran can't

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices approached record levels as fears grew of a cut in production by OPEC. Partly in response to such fears, OPEC's ministers agreed in Vienna on 31st January to leave output quotas unchanged at 28 (for details of individual country quotas, see GER 'Latest Developments', July 2005). Prices fell on OPEC's decision, but futures prices for the outer months of Brent and WTI remained firm on continuing concerns of tight supplies. Market fears were primarily concentrated on Nigeria and Iran. In Nigeria, a series of incidents, including sabotage to oil installations and the killing of oil workers, led to the interruption of exports ( see 'Focus'). There were further fears of an interruption to Iranian oil exports as a result of the growing tension over Iran's nuclear programme. US President, George W Bush increased the tension when, in his State of the Union Message, he called the government there repressive. He also called on the US to make itself less dependent on Middle Eastern oil ( see GER 'Latest Developments'). Iran was reported to have assured the rest of OPEC that there would be no interruption to its oil exports as part of its dispute with the US and others; but many traders remained nervous. Some oil ministers added to market fears by calling for OPEC to cut production in support of oil prices at the cartel's next meeting, which is due on 8th March. For all the fears of oil shortages, Iran was forced to place 19of oil in storage, having failed to sell it on the international market.     

Price records, violence and dollar weakness (the usual mix)

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices went to new record levels in mid-March as traders contemplated the usual mix of violence in Iraq and Nigeria along with a falling US dollar, allied in this instance with a rise in the gold price above $1,000 an ounce and the paradoxical combination of fears of a world recession and high demand for oil products. The result was WTI front-month futures at an intra-day high of $111.80/bbl on 17th March, following a record $110.30/bbl in the cash market for prompt barrels set four days earlier. The 13th of March also saw Dated North Sea at a record $108.93/bbl, with prompt Brent some $2/bbl above this level. OPEC's price-basket also rose above $100/bbl for the first time. Many product prices also moved into record territory, including an intra-day high of $3.22/gall for Nymex spot heating oil on 14th March. The increases proved too much in the end and crude markets were back below $100/bbl by the end of the month.     

Iraq goes to polls, China seeks more oil and UK worries about petrol

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Following a month in which US and British forces suffered their heaviest daily casualties, the Iraqi people voted in large numbers for a new national assembly ( see 'Focus'). Violence, however, continued after the election and oil installations were reported damaged, including a pipeline linking the Kirkuk oil field to the Baiji refinery and a further line between Baiji and the refinery at Daurah. The export line connecting Kirkuk to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan was also hit. Sabotage to electricity installations affected oil pumping stations in the south of the country cutting production and forcing the Iraqis to announce a 10% cut in contract volumes of Basrah Light until the middle of the year. An official investigation into the UN-administered Oil-for-Food Programme concluded that the man in charge, Benon Sevan "repeatedly solicited" oil for a company called Africa Middle East Petroleum. A further report into other allegations of corruption in connection with the programme, which supervised export sales of Iraqi petroleum from 1993 to 2003, is due later this year. Relief at the apparent success of the Iraqi election caused crude oil prices to fall by about $3 a barrel. OPEC ministers did their bit for oil prices by agreeing not to cut output at their meeting on 30th January. Quotas remain unchanged at 27 mn bpd. The organization's target price band of $22-28 a barrel, however, has been suspended. A new one will be discussed in March. Kuwait announced it was to increase security at its oil installations following an attack by armed men in an area close to the emirate's largest refinery, at Mina al-Ahmadi.     

Nymex entertains; Iraq, Nigeria, Kenya and Gaza disappoint

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
After a series of false starts when WTI traded above $100/bbl but failed to remain there ( see 'The Month in Brief', February 2007 ), front-month WTI futures settled above $100 for the first time ever, on 19th February, at a price of $100.01/bbl. The new record was prompted by a continuing fall in the value of the US dollar and rising tensions in Nigeria ( see below). Other records followed. The following day, prompt WTI futures reached $101.32 in day-trading before easing by the close.     

In Market Review,FERC Believes Prices Stay Down,Increasing Usage

Fundamental changes in the North American natural gas market substantially drove down US natural gas spot prices in 2015 ( Exhibit 1 ). Production and storage reached record levels, while demand rose modestly, tempered by the El Niño warm weather during the 2015–16 winter. Natural gas demand increases came from the addition of new gas-fired generation and increasing utilization rates at existing gas-fired plants. Despite a warmer-than-average summer, nonwinter prices fell to their lowest levels in 20 years, which in turn led to lower wholesale electricity prices, as gas-fired generation set the price in many power markets.     

More price records, OPEC produces more and Iraq exports less

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices surged to new highs as Norwegian oil workers threatened to strike. WTI futures settled at a record $60.54/bbl on 27th June while, on the same day, heating oil broke through all previous records on Nymex to reach $1.6761/gall. August IPE Brent remained just below the $60 mark, but the October and November contracts both closed above $60/bbl for the first time, with November the higher of the two at $60.58/bbl. These new price levels proved unsustainable as many traders cashed-in their profits to close-out the second quarter. The record prices appeared not to indicate any actual shortage of crude oil. US imports touched 10.97 mn bpd in the week-ending 24th June: the second-highest on record. As if accepting this as proof that it was producing sufficient crude oil, OPEC shelved plans to discuss a possible 0.5 mn bpd increase in quotas to 28.5 mn bpd. The cartel had earlier decided that it would raise its output ceiling from 27.5 mn bpd to 28.0 mn bpd with effect from 1st July, at its meeting in Vienna on 15th June.     

Markets panic, crude goes above $80, more trouble in Nigeria

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The capture of two Israeli soldiers by Iranian-backed Hizbollah guerrillas operating out of Lebanon flared-up into a full-scale military confrontation, with Israeli attacks on Lebanon's energy infrastructure ( see 'Looking Ahead'). Oil traders, fearing a wider Middle Eastern conflagration, bid-up the price of crude oil to new record levels. Prompt WTI futures hit $78.40/bbl on 14th July and three days later, prompt IPE Brent went to a record $78.18/bbl. The outer months rose even higher, with March, April and May WTI all above $80/bbl. Iran tried to dampen the markets by saying it would not use the oil weapon in support of its Hizbollah allies, and prices eventually eased. The seaborne trade in oil in the Eastern Mediterranean was disrupted by the closure of ports in Israel and Lebanon and a rise in insurance premiums for voyages to ports nearby. Outside the Levant, markets remained well-supplied with oil.     

Refining crisis deepens as capacity is lost on both sides of Atlantic

The devastation by the arrival of hurricanes in rapid succession on the US Gulf Coast highlights how finely balanced the world's refined product supply chain is. Gasoline prices hit record highs around the world as the first of the two hurricanes, Katrina, moved onshore into Louisiana and Mississippi, knocking out some 2.4 mn bpd of refinery capacity. The arrival of its sister storm, Rita, put a further 4.1 mn bpd out of action in Texas whilst nearly 0.9 m bpd remained closed in the aftermath of Katrina. Refiners across the world strove to make up the shortfall in gasoline and other light distillates from the US, only to find in many cases there were insufficient clean tankers to ship the product to the US Gulf.     

Energy security rises to top of agenda in 2006

A dispute over gas prices between two former Soviet republics has spread alarm across Europe and caused the EU to reassess its energy security. Natural gas supplies are a long term concern for many European countries, but of much more immediate concern is the supply of crude oil and refined products. Last year saw record prices for both ( see 'Oil Price Review', October 2005 ), caused by a combination of high demand in the US and Asia, a shortage of light, sweet crudes worldwide and damage by hurricanes to a large number of refineries along the US Gulf.     

Still more records, Iraqi violence and Caspian exports

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices set further records at the start of May before falling back. December WTI hit an all-time high of $78.00/bbl on Nymex on 3rd May. IPE November Brent went up to a record $76.45/bbl. Both contracts eventually settled lower and prices in general weakened before staging a minor rally at the end of the month. Other price records were broken early in the month. In Asia, the Indonesian marker grade, Minas, was recorded at $74.04/bbl on 2nd May, whilst Malaysia's Tapis went above $76.70/bbl. Strong Asian demand also boosted the prices of West African crudes. The markets appeared to be reacting to growing tensions in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria. These considerations returned to haunt the markets later in the month. All crude oil loadings at Iraq's Persian Gulf marine terminal were suspended following a fire, though the main Gulf terminal at Basrah continued to operate. The Ceyhan terminal remained out of action. Tensions between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme gave rise to fears of an embargo on Iranian oil exports. Several foreign oil workers were kidnapped following an armed attack on oil installations in Nigeria. OPEC ministers kept their production ceiling unchanged at 28 mn bpd at a meeting in Caracas.     

Prices high, tensions ease and a new OPEC is formed

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices rose on news that BP was to shut-in its 400,000 bpd Prudhoe Bay field, following the discovery of corrosion in a pipeline serving the field. Dated BFO went to a record high of $78.72/bbl on 8th August. Speculation that refiners on the US West Coast would seek to replace the lost Alaska North Slope crude with supplies from the Asia/Pacific region caused prices to rise there as well. US crude prices were rather less affected than elsewhere by events in Alaska as it rapidly became clear that stock levels were sufficient to deal with any loss of production. It also emerged that BP was able to keep about half of Prudhoe Bay in production. By that time, however, oil markets had latched on to an entirely different source of worry. The announcement in London that police had uncovered a plot to blow-up aeroplanes crossing the Atlantic led to concerns of a sharp fall in passenger travel. Traders were not simply worried about the effect of this on the demand for jet fuel, but expressed concerns of a more general loss of business confidence across the world. Fears over a fall in jet fuel consumption did not appear to have spread to Singapore, where jet kerosine traded at an all-time high of $91.75/bbl early in August.     

More price records, more Nigerian troubles and privatization woes

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices rose steadily during July, establishing new records in some instances. Dated BFOE went above $78.90/bbl for the first time, whilst on 1st August, September WTI futures hit a record $78.77/bbl after US crude oil inventories recorded a sharp drop. North Sea markets were affected by the shut-down of a gas pipeline which threatened production of more than 100,000 bpd of NGL. OPEC declined to come to the market's rescue by producing more oil, claiming that the high price levels were caused by geopolitical factors and shortages of refined products rather than insufficient supplies of crude. Demand for oil was boosted in Asia by the shut-down of Japan's largest nuclear power station.