Peak CO2 emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries: a case study of Dezhou city in China

This paper studies the pathways of peaking CO₂ emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing a bottom-up sector analysis model and considering future economic growth, the adjustment of the industrial structure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO₂ mitigation scenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at 25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growth versus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the final energy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versus peak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energy consumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) and decrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively, compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO₂ emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), and subsequently decrease gradually in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014, and 60 MtCO₂ will be emitted in 2030. Active policies including restructuring the economy, improving energy efficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low-carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou city peaked CO₂ emission as early as possible.     

The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for the Fiji Islands

Fiji is a small open island economy dependent on energy for its growth and development; hence, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is crucial for Fiji's development. In this paper, we investigate the nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth for Fiji within a multivariate framework through including the labour force variable. We use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that electricity consumption, GDP and labour force are only cointegrated when GDP is the endogenous variable. We use the Granger causality F-test and find that in the long-run causality runs from electricity consumption and labour force to GDP, implying that Fiji is an energy dependent country and thus energy conservation policies will have an adverse effect on Fiji's economic growth.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971–2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector.     

CO2 emission and economic growth in Algeria

Algeria is one of the most important CO₂ emitters among developing countries and the third among African countries. It pledged to curb carbon emissions by at least 7% by 2030. However, complying with this target may be a difficult task without compromising economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth in Algeria, taking into account energy use, electricity consumption, exports and imports. The validity of the EKC hypothesis, throughout the period from 1970 to 2010, is tested by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model extended to introduce the break points. Results confirm the EKC for Algeria. Nevertheless, the turning point is reached for a very high GDP per capita value, indicating that economic growth in Algeria will continue to increase emissions. Results also indicate that an increase in energy use and electricity consumption increase CO₂ emissions, and that exports and imports affect them negatively and positively, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to promote renewable energies and energy efficiency policies. Regulatory reforms are needed to facilitate foreign investments with which to carry out these policies. Likewise, it may be appropriate to decrease subsides in energy prices to encourage energy efficiency.     

Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.     

The renewable energy,CO2 emissions,and economic growth: VAR model

This paper provides an empirical analysis of CO₂ emissions and economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and energy consumption over the period 1975–2014 in Germany. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models. The unit root and cointegration tests show that the long-run relationship between CO₂ emissions and its determinants. The empirical results show that the findings do not support the environmental Kuznets curve between real GDP and CO₂ emissions. To estimate the shocks of renewable energy consumptions, the study applies the dynamic test of Impulse Response Function (IRF) under the VAR method. The increasing portion of renewable energy consumption in electricity generation would have no impacts on the environment. However, the hikes of renewable energy sources would incur more cost to electricity producers and shrivel up the growth of economies through the expansionary effect of industry’s consumption and private capital spending in the Germany’s economy.     

Energy needs for Morocco 2030, as obtained from GDP-energy and GDP-energy intensity correlations

We present forecasts of the energy consumption of Morocco towards 2030. Two models have been developed and their results compared: one based on the energy intensity (IE) and another one on a link with the country urbanization rate (URB). The IE model allowed to segment energy consumption in four posts while the URB model only in two posts. For the sensitivity analysis to economic growth, three future GDP evolution scenarios are proposed. The retrospective correlations of both models are excellent but their future extrapolations finish in slightly different results. Through their correlation to electricity consumption, peak power forecasts are also presented. A forecast of the country energy intensity is commented. As the average yearly increase of electricity should still be between 4.9% and 7.1% during 2020–2030, the electric equipment program continuation after 2020 must soon be clarified and avoid the former implementation delays. As the white combustibles needs should yearly increase between 6.3% and 7.8% in 2020–2030, electrical equipment programs should also make provisions for the case of deployment of electric cars. Butane subsidies widen the gap with other fuels and must be removed very soon possible to reduce the growth of its consumption and energy intensity.     

经济和能源地缘格局变化及中美战略对策

本世纪头10年世界经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移,转向东亚—南亚弧形地带,其中中国和印度成为领跑者,这一趋势将至少持续到本世纪30年代。中国和印度占世界GDP的份额分别从2000年的3.72%和1.49%上升到2010年的9.34%和2.44%。2000～2010年间世界能源消费总量年均增长率为2.67%,而中国和印度则分别为11.54%和5.18%。2001～2010年间,北美、日本的石油进口量呈下降趋势,欧洲呈微弱增长态势;而同期中国石油进口量年均增长率达16.29%,印度2000～2009年间石油进口量年均增长率为6.32%。2000～2010年间世界煤炭消费量年均增长率为4.84%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的30%;而中国10年间煤炭消费量的年均增长率为13.21%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的70.3%。中国能源消费总量增长过快、能源构成不合理的问题相当突出,必须加大对能源消费总量的控制,大力调整能源结构,坚决扭转煤炭占能源构成比例持续升高的局面。与经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移相应的是中美两国战略思维的变化。美国战略重点东移、"重返亚洲"的目的是遏制中国,这不过是冷战时期围堵的老思维;但美国同时又必须与中国合作,双方的相互渗透、相互依存已经达到相当的程度。而中国必须看到国内外经济形势的变化,形成新的战略思维,改变发展方式,坚定不移地以改革促稳定,以结构调整保发展。     

Economic growth and electricity consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from time series analysis

This paper examines the causal relationship between the electric power industry and the economic growth of Cote d'Ivoire. Using the data from 1971 to 2008, a test was conducted for the cointegration and Granger causality within an error correction model. Results from these tests reveal a bidirectional causality between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP. A unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to industry value added appears in the short run. Economic growth is found to have great effects on electricity consumption and a reverse causality from electricity to economic growth may also appear. In the long run, there is a unidirectional causality between electricity and both GDP and industry value added. From these findings, we conclude that the country will be energy dependent in the long run and must therefore secure the production network from shortfalls to ensure a sustainable development path. Accordingly, government should adopt policies aimed at increasing the investment in the sector by stepping up electricity production from existing and new energy sources.     

The causal relationship between energy use and economic growth in Switzerland

This paper investigates the relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in Switzerland over the period 1950–2010. We apply bounds testing techniques to different energy types separately. Robustness tests are performed by including additional variables and restricting the analysis to the period after 1970. The results show that there exist robust long-run relationships going from real GDP toward heating oil and electricity consumption. The relationship between heating oil and GDP is in fact bidirectional, although weaker from heating oil toward GDP than in the reverse direction. When investigating the period 1970–2010 only, the estimate of the long-run income elasticity of electricity consumption loses statistical significance and that for heating oil becomes negative. Those results imply a possible decoupling between GDP growth and energy consumption, so that energy conservation policies are not necessarily expected to have a negative impact on Swiss economic growth.     

Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the economic community of West African States (ECOWAS)

Access to modern energy is believed to be a prerequisite for sustainable development, poverty alleviation and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.However, theoretical models and empirical results offer conflicting evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth that we remain largely unsure of the cause-and-effect nature of this relationship, if indeed a relationship exists at all.This paper tests, in a panel context, the long-run relationship between energy access, and economic growth for fifteen African countries from 1980 to 2008 by using recently developed panel cointegration techniques.We adopt a three-stage approach, consisting of panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality tests to study the dynamic causal relationships between energy consumption, energy prices and growth as well as relationship between electricity consumption, prices and growth.Results show that GDP and energy consumption as well as GDP and electricity move together in the long-run. By estimating these long-run relationships and testing for causality using panel-based error correction models, we found unidirectional long-run and short-run causality. The causality is running from GDP to energy consumption in the short-run, and from energy consumption to GDP in the long-run. There is also evidence of unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to GDP in the long-run.This study thus provides empirical evidence of long-run and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth for our sample of fifteen countries; suggesting that lack or limited access to modern energy services could hamper economic growth and compromise the development prospects of these countries.     

Electricity demand,GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

This paper applies time series methodologies to examine the causal relationship among electricity demand, real per capita GDP and total labor force for Italy from 1970 to 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is reported, before discussing the data and introducing the econometric techniques used. The results of estimation indicate that one cointegrating relationship exists among these variables. This equilibrium relation implies that, in the long-run, GDP and labor force are correlated negatively, as well as GDP and electricity. Moreover, there is a bi-directional Granger causality flow between real per capita GDP and electricity demand; while labor force does not Grangercause neither real per capita GDP nor electricity demand. This implies that electricity demand and economic growth are jointly determined at the same time for the Italian case. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that forecast errors in real per capita GDP are mainly caused by the uncertainty in GDP itself, while forecast errors in labor force are mainly resulted from the labor force itself, although aggregate income and electricity are important, too.     

ENERGY AND GDP

Understanding of the role of energy use at the national level requires the understanding of the relationship of energy use to economic activity and social well-being. Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in a country in one year. There is a close relationship between energy supply, energy consumption, and GDP, which indicates the economic development of a country. The living standard of a country is often measured by the per capita GDP. This article presents the evaluations and future projections of energy and energy resources of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The total primary energy supply, total final energy consumption, and energy intensities for supply and consumption are analysed. The energy data for all OECD countries are presented and analyses of the differences in energy and GDP ratios are conducted at an aggregate level by examining differences in the factors that affect the energy intensities. To provide accurate projections for the future, new correlations are developed between average GDP, total primary energy supply, total final consumption, total per capita primary energy supply, total per capita final consumption and total OECD population. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Residential and non-residential electricity dynamics

This paper uses U.S. panel data to instrument and examine the dynamics of electricity within the world market while separating between both residential and non-residential electricity consumptions during the time period of 1990–2014. To better assess the true differences within each causal relationship, all panel data has been separated into one Full panel and three subpanels of High, Middle, and Low income. The empirical framework used consists of various tests that identify the existence of cross-sectional dependency, a Pesaran panel unit root test, a Westerlund panel cointegration test, and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin method of the Granger causality test. Furthermore, this paper utilizes DOLS to estimate any long-run elastic relations between real GDP and residential or non-residential electricity consumption. Based on the results, this paper determines that no long-run relationship exists between non-residential electricity consumption and economic growth throughout and that the relationship between residential electricity consumption and economic growth possesses unit elastic behavior in the long run. Other findings throughout imply causality moves from economic growth in the direction of residential electricity consumption for all panels.     

Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption,exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption, exports and gross domestic product (GDP) for a panel of Middle Eastern countries. We find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables. A 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases GDP by 0.04 per cent, a 1 per cent increase in exports increases GDP by 0.17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in GDP generates a 0.95 per cent increase in electricity consumption. The policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth. Further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports, particularly non-oil exports, is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies.     

我国节能减排形势和面临的严峻挑战

我国近几年节能减排取得巨大成就,与2005年比较,2009年全国单位GDP能耗降低15.56%;"十一五"前4年节能率为4.14%,节能量达到56511×104t标煤;环境污染物增长率和单位GDP污染物产生量明显下降。但节能减排形势依然严峻,目前完成"十一五"能源强度降低20%左右的目标任务十分艰巨。同时,能源资源相对短缺、节能压力巨大、能源开发利用效率不高、环境污染严重、节能管理体制改革明显滞后等问题依然存在。其原因主要是经济增长过快、产业结构调整十分艰难、节能降耗步履维艰、能源结构调整进展较慢、能源消费量增长迅速等。为了保持资源和环境的可持续发展,必须控制能源需求总量的增长,优化能源结构,2020年能源消费总量不应超过42×108t标煤,特别要抑制煤炭生产量和消费量的快速增长。同时今后10年经济增长速度最好保持在7%～8%之间。改变经济增长模式的重点在于转变发展方式,要由生产型大国向消费型大国转型、由投资主导型转向消费主导型,到2020年第三产业的比重应达到50%左右。要加大节能力度,提高能源利用效率,"十二五"和"十三五"期间,单位GDP能耗应分别下降20%。另外,应积极发展各种非化石能源,深化能源体制改革,进一步加强国际合作。     

1999～2009年世界煤炭消费量变化分析及启示

分析近10年煤炭消费量的变化,对认识在经济困难背景下不同国家能源构成的走向会有重要启发。国际油价从20世纪末开始攀升,这种影响在1999～2005年间并未使GDP增速明显下降,但还是迫使某些竞争力较弱和/或高耗能企业采用煤炭替代成本较高的石油,经济发展程度较低的国家以煤代油的倾向更明显,煤炭消费年均增长率高达7.60%,使得世界煤炭消费年均增长率比一次能源高出1.7个百分点,而亚太地区竟高出2.31个百分点。油价的持续大幅攀升在2005～2007年间仍未能使GDP增长率下降,但却迫使全球都增加了对煤炭的需求,导致煤炭消费量年均增长率略有上升,与一次能源年均增长率之差增至2.1个百分点。金融危机爆发后,全球GDP增长明显下降,2007～2009年全球一次能源年均增长率为0.18%,煤炭消费年均增长率为1.47%。但新兴市场经济体GDP增速普遍高于OECD国家,同时煤炭消费年均增长率达到6.82%。其中中国和印度在经济较快发展的同时,2007～2009年煤炭消费年均增长率也分别达到8.14%和8.11%。韩国由于高耗能基础工业仍占据重要地位,也加大了煤炭的消费量。中、印、韩等国更多地使用煤炭是在经济困难时保障经济较快发展而被迫采取的重要措施,是正确的能源对策。     

中国及世界一次能源消费结构现状分析

根据《2012年BP世界能源统计年鉴》的数据,按照能源种类,分析研究了世界和中国的石油、天然气、煤炭等传统一次能源消费情况,同时对核能、水电、可再生能源的消费量进行了统计分析.通过分析比较,对中国能源消费趋势作出了预测.预计到2030年,中国能源消费占世界能源总消费量的比重将上升至27%.为了缓解中国目前巨大的能源和环境压力,提出了几点建议,包括:研究煤炭的清洁利用技术,开发非常规油气资源和发展可再生能源.     

低碳发展时代的世界与中国能源格局

哥本哈根会议认定了"2℃"和"在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半",到2050年,碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2.5t标煤/a。能源碳强度ω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标,利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率γ的关联式ω=2.4γ进行推算:按照450情景方案,二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年,而能耗峰值在2030年左右;按照丹麦方案,二氧化碳排放峰值320×108t出现在2025年,能耗峰值也大约在2030年,将达到273×108t标煤/a,人均3.3t标煤/a。碳排放峰值年越推迟,达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案,2030~2050年的20年间,需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳,同时与450情景方案相比,大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010~2020年的减排目标推算,2020年能耗为41×108t标煤,二氧化碳排放约74×108t,中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20%,就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效,这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。     

Electricity consumption and economic growth in seven South American countries

This paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among seven South American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela using widely accepted time-series techniques for the period 1975–2006. The results indicate that the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth varies across countries. There is a unidirectional, short-run causality from electricity consumption to real GDP for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, and Ecuador. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth in those countries. In Venezuela, there is a bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. This implies that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in that country. However, no causal relationships exist in Peru. The documented evidence from seven South American countries can provide useful information for each government with regard to energy and growth policy.