Biofuels and their potential to aid the UK towards achieving emissions reduction policy targets

The potential of biofuels contributing to the UK emission reduction targets in the formulated UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (LCTP) and the UK’s obligation in the wider EU emissions reduction targets are assessed using four scenarios. The scenarios were evaluated using hybrid lifecycle assessment developed in a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) framework. In the hybrid MRIO LCA framework, technology-specific processes in the biofuels and fossil fuels LCA systems are integrated into a generalised 2-region (UK and Rest of the World) environmental-economic input–output framework in order to account for economy-wide indirect GHG emissions in the biofuels and fossil fuels LCA systems in addition to other indirect impacts such as indirect land use change. The lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of biodiesel (soybean, palm, rape, waste cooking oil) and bio-ethanol (sugarcane, sugarbeet, corn) were assessed and compared to fossil fuel (diesel and petrol) baseline. From one of the scenarios, biodiesel production from waste cooking oil and bioethanol from sugarbeet offer the biggest potential for emissions savings relative to fossil fuel equivalent and offering a maximum emission savings of 4.1% observed with a biofuel market share of 10% reached in 2020. It was also established that under current biofuel feedstock mix, to achieve the 6% emissions saving primarily from biofuels as proposed in the LCTP, 23.8% of the transport fuels market would be required to be held by biofuels by 2020.     

Current status and policies on biodiesel industry in Malaysia as the world's leading producer of palm oil

This article discusses current status of palm oil-based biodiesel industry in Malaysia, the policies introduced and strategies for its implementation. Due to renewability, high production rate, technical feasibility and role in reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emission, palm oil is in the right position to supply the energy needs by the incorporation into the diesel supply. As a leading producer of palm oil, Malaysia has embarked on a comprehensive palm biofuel program since 1982. It has successfully established the use of palm biodiesel blend (B5) as a suitable fuel for the transport and industrial sectors through the introduction of the National Biofuel Policy. The current scenario of biodiesel program in Malaysia, as well as biofuel policies with respect to its use, technology, export, environmental issues and implementation aspects are thoroughly discussed. The roles of the policy towards the prosperity of the stakeholders, oil price and the reduction of greenhouse gasses are also highlighted.     

Competition and environmental policies in an electricity sector

We study the impact of competition and environmental policy (feed-in tariff vs. the EU ETS) on investment, CO₂ emissions and welfare in an electricity sector. We consider different market structures (a planner who maximises social welfare vs. duopoly) and two types of consumers (those whose behaviour depends on the weather vs. those whose behaviour does not). The demand specification is innovative and takes incompressible consumption into account.Given the costs and demand functions, we find that competition can increase CO₂ emissions, as is highlighted by Mansur (2007). In duopoly, the EU ETS seems to be the only efficient policy for reducing CO₂ emissions but also to increase the share of production based on renewable energy sources. The retained feed-in tariff policy seems to be the most expensive policy in terms of “social welfare”. Even if this policy seems to increase “social welfare”, feed-in tariffs increase the CSPE, which is paid for by consumers in the form of higher electricity prices and only benefits new entrants. It is also less effective in terms of emission reduction.     

Socio-economic aspects of different biofuel development pathways

There are several policy drivers for biofuels on a larger scale in the EU transport sector, including increased security of energy supply, reduced emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), and new markets for the agricultural sector. The purpose of this socio-economic cost analysis is to provide an overview of the costs of meeting EU biofuels targets, taking into account several external costs and benefits. Biofuels are generally more expensive than traditional fossil fuels, but the expected increasing value of GHG emission reductions will over time reduce the cost gap. High crude oil prices significantly improve the economic benefit of biofuels, but increased demand for biomass for energy purposes is likely to increase the price of biofuels feedstock and biofuels costs. The key question is to what extent increasing oil prices will be passed on to biofuels costs. Socio-economic least costs for biofuels production require a market with a clear pricing of GHG emissions to ensure that this factor is included in the decision-making of actors in all links of the fuel chain.     

Who pays and who gains from fuel policies in Brazil?

Brazil has pursued a mix of policy interventions in the fuel sector to achieve multiple objectives of economic and social development, promoting biofuels and reducing dependence on oil. We develop an economic framework to provide insight on the fuel policy choices in Brazil and to analyze the trade-offs they have engendered in the fuel and sugar sectors. We also examine their distributional impacts on producers and consumers in the sugar, oil and biofuel sectors and on government revenues. Additionally, we undertake a normative analysis for the purpose of comparing the welfare and environmental impacts of existing policies with those justified by the goal of maximizing social welfare and addressing market failure. The ex-post analysis of the outcomes for different stakeholders in the fuel and sugar sectors provides insights on the likely political-economic factors guiding policy choices. We find that the status quo policies are likely to have been motivated by the objectives of increasing oil exports, raising government revenue and promoting rural development through the sugarcane sector and have had a significant adverse effect on fuel and sugar consumers, aggregate social welfare and greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil.     

Retro-analysis of liquid bio-ethanol and bio-diesel in New Zealand

This paper uses a new approach of retro-analysis. Typically policy is informed by forward-looking analysis of potential for alternative energy technologies. But historical knowledge of energy and processing requirements and greenhouse effects is more reliable for engineering evaluation of biofuel production systems. This study calculates energy inputs and greenhouse gas emissions for the most efficient biomass feedstocks in New Zealand if the policy had been implemented to maximize liquid biofuel production in the year 2004/2005. The study uses existing processing technologies and agricultural statistics. Bioethanol production is calculated from putrescible wastes and starch crops, and biodiesel production from rapeseed, tallow, wood and waste paper. Each production system is further evaluated using measures of land use, energy input, crop production related to the energy product, plus relative measures of efficiency and renewability. The research findings are that maximum biofuel production in 2004/2005 would have provided only a few per cent of demand, and would not have reduced dependence on foreign imported oil or exposure to fuel price rise. Finally, we conclude that demand management and efficiency are more effective means of meeting policy objectives.     

Stimulating the use of biofuels in the European Union: Implications for climate change policy

The substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels has been proposed in the European Union (EU) as part of a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from road transport, increase security of energy supply and support development of rural communities. In this paper, we focus on one of these purported benefits, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of subsidising the price difference between European bioethanol and petrol, and biodiesel and diesel, per tonne of CO₂ emissions saved are estimated. Without including the benefits from increased security of energy supply and employment generation in rural areas, the current costs of implementing European domestic biofuel targets are high compared with other available CO₂ mitigation strategies. The policy instrument of foregoing some or all of the excise duty and other taxes now applicable to transport fuels in EU15 on domestically produced biofuels, as well as the potential to import low-cost alternatives, for example, from Brazil, are addressed in this context.     

Investments into forest biorefineries under different price and policy structures

Increasing scarcity of oil reserves and the high CO₂ emissions from using oil have contributed to the development of renewable biofuels. Pulp and paper mill integrated forest biorefineries offer one important means to increase biofuel production. This study analyzes the effects of policies to support biofuel production in the pulp and paper sector. We study the relative effectiveness of three biofuel supporting policy instruments, namely production subsidy, input subsidy and investment subsidy. We present a partial equilibrium pulp and paper market model with a biorefinery investment option. A numerical model is used to evaluate the impacts of policy instruments on wood prices, as well as input choices and investment strategies of pulp and paper industries. The data represent the Finnish pulp and paper sector. We evaluate the values and direct costs of the policy instruments in a situation of exogenous biofuel production targets. The direct costs of input and investment subsidies are higher than those of a production subsidy. With all the policy instruments, Finnish pulp and paper mills would invest in wood-gasifying technology, instead of black liquor based one. The number of biorefinery units is dependent on the subsidy type — investment and input subsidies are likely to result in more numerous but smaller biofuel production units than a production subsidy. With all the policy instruments the demand for wood increases in Finland leading to higher wood prices. This, in turn, could reflect negatively on the profitability of the pulp and paper industries. To a significant degree, the model and the results can be generalized to other countries and markets where integrated pulp and paper mills are operating.     

Is it better to import palm oil from Thailand to produce biodiesel in Ireland than to produce biodiesel from indigenous Irish rape seed?

The proposed EU Directive on the promotion of Renewable Energy stipulates that only biofuels that achieve greenhouse emissions savings of 35% will be eligible for inclusion with respect to meeting the 2020 target of 10% for the share of biofuels. This paper examines biodiesel for use in Ireland, produced from two different sources: indigenous rape seed and palm oil imported from Thailand. The palm oil system generates more biodiesel per hectare than the rape seed system, and has less parasitic demand. Greenhouse-gas reductions of 29% and 55%, respectively were calculated for the rape seed and palm oil systems.     

The EU Decarbonisation Roadmap 2050—What way to walk?

We carry out a detailed computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the EU Decarbonisation Roadmap 2050 on a macroeconomic and on a sectoral level. Herein, we study a Reference scenario that implements existing EU policies as well as 3 unilateral and 3 global climate action scenarios. We identify global climate action with international emissions trading and the full equalisation of CO₂ prices across all (EU) sectors as an economically reasonable policy option to avoid additional costs of the Decarbonisation Roadmap to a large extent. This policy option may include CDM (Clean Development Mechanism in the sense of ‘where’-flexibility) in an extended form if there are countries without emissions caps. Moreover, we identify diverse sectoral effects in terms of output, investment, emissions and international competitiveness. We conclude that the successful realisation of the EU Decarbonisation Roadmap probably requires a wise and joint consideration of technology, policy design and sectoral aspects.     

Greenhouse impact assessment of peat-based Fischer–Tropsch diesel life-cycle

New raw materials for transportation fuels need to be introduced, in order to fight against climate change and also to cope with increasing risks of availability and price of oil. Peat has been recognised suitable raw material option for diesel produced by gasification and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) synthesis. The energy content of Finnish peat reserves is remarkable. In this study, the greenhouse impact of peat-based FT diesel production and utilisation in Finland was assessed from the life-cycle point of view. In 100 year's time horizon the greenhouse impact of peat-based FT diesel is likely larger than the impact of fossil diesel. The impact can somewhat be lowered by producing peat from the agricultural peatland (strong greenhouse gas emissions from the decaying peatlayer are avoided) with new peat production technique, and utilising the produced biomass from the after-treatment area for diesel also. If diesel production is integrated with pulp and paper mill to achieve energy efficiency benefits and if the electricity demand can be covered by zero emission electricity, the greenhouse impact of peat-based FT diesel reduces to the level of fossil diesel when agricultural peatland is used, and is somewhat higher when forestry-drained peatland is used as raw material source.     

Indirect fuel use change (IFUC) and the lifecycle environmental impact of biofuel policies

A common assumption in lifecycle assessment (LCA) based estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits (or costs) of renewable fuel such as biofuel is that it simply replaces an energy-equivalent amount of fossil fuel and that total fuel consumption remains unchanged. However, the adoption of renewable fuels will affect the price of fuel and therefore affect total fuel consumption which, may increase or decrease depending on the policy regime and market conditions. Using a representative two-region model of the global oil market in which, one region implements a domestic biofuel mandate and the other does not, we show that the net change in global fuel consumption due to the policy, which we term indirect fuel use change (IFUC), can have a significant impact on the net GHG emissions associated with biofuel. If LCA-based regulations are designed to account for indirect emissions such as indirect land use change, then we argue that IFUC emissions cannot be ignored. Our work also shows how different policies can affect the environmental impact from adopting a given clean technology differently.     

我国生物质能源现代化应用前景展望(四)——生物质能源转化生命周期分析

生物质种类不同,转化为运输燃料的途径也是多种多样,生命周期排放的温室气体和能耗也不相同。总结对比主要生物质转化途径的全生命周期分析(LCA)结果,有助于明确需要进一步改进的技术难题和方向。生物质转化为醇类燃料时,使用E85比使用传统汽油的碳排放明显下降,纤维素生化转化途径排放的二氧化碳当量值约为传统汽油的0.2~0.7倍,热化学途径约为传统汽油的0.6~0.9倍,玉米干法为传统汽油的0.8~1倍。油脂类生物质转化为酯类燃料时,生物柴油减排温室气体的效果,动物油脂地沟油、棕榈油豆油、椰子油菜籽油。动物油脂、地沟油生产生物柴油可减排温室气体70%~90%,以植物为原料的生物柴油可减排10%~90%。生物质转化为烃类燃料时,菜籽油基喷气燃料可减排温室气体13%~55%,F-T合成油比油脂加氢具有更好的减排效果,BTL通常可减排80%以上的温室气体,CBTL的减排效果与掺入生物质的比例有关,热解汽柴油的温室气体减排率为58%~70%。对于微藻生物燃料工艺过程,在微藻产率和含油量不太低的情况下,池子系统的温室气体排放低于石油柴油。     

Evaluation of greenhouse gas emission risks from storage of wood residue

The use of renewable energy sources instead of fossil fuels is one of the most important means of limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the near future. In Finland, wood energy is considered to be a very important potential energy source in this sense. There might, however, still be some elements of uncertainty when evaluating biofuel production chains. By combining data from a stack of composting biodegradable materials and forest residue storage research there was an indication that rather great amounts of greenhouse gases maybe released during storage of wood chip, especially if there is rapid decomposition. Unfortunately, there have not been many evaluations of greenhouse gas emissions of biomass handling and storage heaps. The greenhouse gas emissions are probably methane, when the temperature in the fuel stack is above the ambient temperature, and nitrous oxide, when the temperature is falling and the decaying process is slowing down. Nowadays it is still rather unusual to store logging residue as chips, because the production is small, but in Finland storage of bark and other by-products from the forest industry is a normal process. The evaluations made indicate that greenhouse gas emissions from storage can, in some cases, be much greater than emissions from the rest of the biofuel production and transportation chain.     

Environmental aspects and challenges of oilseed produced biodiesel in Southeast Asia

Research on alternative fuel for the vehemently growing number of automotivesis intensified due to environmental reasons rather than turmoil in energy price and supply. From the policy and steps to emphasis the use of biofuel by governments all around the world, this can be comprehended that biofuel have placed itself as a number one substitute for fossil fuels. These phenomena made Southeast Asia a prominent exporter of biodiesel. But thrust in biodiesel production from oilseeds of palm and Jatropha curcas in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand is seriously threatening environmental harmony. This paper focuses on this critical issue of biodiesels environmental impacts, policy, standardization of this region as well as on the emission of biodiesel in automotive uses. To draw a bottom line on feasibilities of different feedstock of biodiesel, a critical analysis on oilseed yield rate, land use, engine emissions and oxidation stability is reviewed. Palm oil based biodiesel is clearly ahead in all these aspects of feasibility, except in the case of NO_x where it lags from conventional petro diesel.     

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions impacts of the adoption of the EU Directive on biofuels in Spain. Effect of the import of raw materials and land use changes

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impacts of the use of different alternative biofuels in passenger vehicles in Spain in order to meet EU biofuel goals. Different crop production alternatives are analysed, including the possible import of some raw materials. Availability of land for national production of the raw materials is analysed and indirect land use changes and associated GHG emissions are quantified.There are important differences in GHG emissions of biofuels depending on the raw material used and whether this is domestically produced or imported. Ethanol production using imported cereals and FAME production using domestic rapeseed have the highest GHG emissions per kilometre driven. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) production from sunflower has shown the lowest emissions. When taking into account the results of GHG emissions savings per hectare, these findings are somehow reversed. Production of ethanol and around 12% of FAME can be done domestically. The rest will need to be imported and will cause indirect land use change (ILUC). Therefore, ethanol production will not displace any land, whereas FAME production will displace some amounts of land. Calculated ILUC factors are 29%-34%. The additional GHG emissions due to these indirect land use changes are significant (67%-344% of life cycle GHG emissions).Standalone, the EU biofuel targets can have important benefits for Spain in terms of global warming emissions avoided. However, when considering the impact of land use change effects, these benefits are significantly reduced and can even be negative.     

Multi-objective regulations on transportation fuels: Comparing renewable fuel mandates and emission standards

We compare two types of fuel market regulations — a renewable fuel mandate and a fuel emission standard — that could be employed to simultaneously achieve multiple outcomes such as reduction in fuel prices, fuel imports and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We compare these two types of regulations in a global context taking into account heterogeneity in carbon content of both fossil fuels and renewable fuels. We find that although neither the ethanol mandate nor the emission standard is certain to reduce emissions relative to a business-as-usual baseline, at any given level of biofuel consumption in the policy region, a mandate, relative to an emission standard, results in higher GHG emissions, smaller expenditure on fuel imports, lower price of ethanol-blended gasoline and higher domestic fuel market surplus. This result holds over a wide range of values of model parameters. We also discuss the implications of this result to a regulation such as the US Renewable Fuel Standard given recent developments within the US such as increase in shale and tight oil production and large increase in average vehicle fuel economy of the automotive fleet.     

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.     

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO₂ mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO₂ mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.     

Biofuel market and carbon modeling to analyse French biofuel policy

In order to comply with European Union objectives, France has set up an ambitious biofuel plan. This plan is evaluated on the basis of two criteria: tax exemption on fossil fuels and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission savings. An economic marginal analysis and a life cycle assessment (LCA) are provided using a coupling procedure between a partial agro-industrial equilibrium model and an oil refining optimization model. Thus, we determine the minimum tax exemption needed to place on the market a targeted quantity of biofuel by deducting the biofuel long-run marginal revenue of refiners from the agro-industrial marginal cost of biofuel production. With a clear view of the refiner's economic choices, total pollutant emissions along the biofuel production chains are quantified and used to feed an LCA. The French biofuel plan is evaluated for 2008, 2010 and 2012 using prospective scenarios. Results suggest that biofuel competitiveness depends on crude oil prices and demand for petroleum products and consequently these parameters should be taken into account by authorities to modulate biofuel tax exemption. LCA results show that biofuel production and use, from “seed to wheel”, would facilitate the French Government's compliance with its “Plan Climat” objectives by reducing up to 5% GHG emissions in the French road transport sector by 2010.