共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
2.
主要对水文风险、水力风险、经济风险、风险决策和洪水保险五个方面的风险管理方法在防洪减灾中的研究现状进行归纳和评述 .其中水文风险的研究重点分为线型选择、参数估计、风险率计算三部分 ;水力风险的研究主要集中在水库泄洪风险及河道或洪泛区的洪水演进研究 ;经济风险分析主要集中在防洪费用效益的风险分析 ;风险决策研究通常表现为防洪问题的可靠性规划和多目标风险分析两种形式 ;洪水保险的研究主要是利用模拟模型来推导一个最优洪水保险策略 .文末阐述了防洪减灾风险管理的发展趋势 相似文献
3.
中国洪灾风险区划研究 总被引:19,自引:1,他引:18
考虑气候、地貌和流域水系作为洪水发生的影响因素,分别选取特定频率下的三日降水量、中国气候分区图、坡度图、高程图和河湖缓冲区作为洪水发生的影响因子,并兼顾历史洪水频次数据,采用成因分析法和层次分析法确定各影响因子的权重,在ArcGIS环境下制作了特定频率下的中国洪水风险区划图。分别以人口和GDP作为社会经济指标,分析并制作了中国发生特定频率洪水时的受灾人口分布图和GDP损失分布图。区划图符合历史洪水资料的统计情况,客观反映了中国洪水风险区域的空间分布情况。 相似文献
4.
在简要介绍防洪决策支持系统研究现状的基础上 ,充分考虑了洪灾风险管理的特点和目标 ,提出了具有系统结构合理、扩充性好和适应实时要求特点的洪灾风险管理决策支持系统 ,确定了系统开发的原则 ,拟定了系统的组成结构及主要框架构成 ,设计了友好、直观并且操作灵活方便的界面 相似文献
5.
6.
关于我国洪水风险图编制工作的思考 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
我国第一张洪水风险图是1984年绘制完成的,到现在,无论是在洪水风险理论、洪水风险分析方法和模型、洪水风险特征展示和绘制技术,还是在洪水风险图编制规范的制订等方面都有了长足的进步,并运用二维非恒定流的洪水分析模型陆续研究绘制了部分城市、蓄滞洪区、洪泛区和防洪保护区约10万km2的洪水风险图,形成了具有较高水平的洪水风险图技术体系和一定规模的人才队伍,一些洪水风险图成果已开始运用于实际防洪工作之中.今后还应进一步明确洪水风险图的使用对象和用途,落实洪水风险图制作的行政管理机制、编制计划和经费投入,构建若干官方认可的规范化的风险分析和风险图制作平台,不断弥补基础信息的不足. 相似文献
7.
8.
我国推进洪水风险图编制工作基本思路的探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
编制洪水风险图是推进洪水风险管理的一项重要的基础工作,也是一项技术性、政策性很强的工作."十一五"期间我国将大力加强洪水风险图的编制工作,为此迫切需要理清思路,明确怎么做.在总结近几十年国内外风险图制作经验教训的基础上,提出今后我国的洪水风险图编制工作应坚持分三步走,加强前期基础研究,并明确洪水风险图的法律地位. 相似文献
9.
洪水风险评估包括洪峰、洪量、水位和洪水过程.从安全角度来看,洪水风险评估对于水电工程、防洪工程的设计和运行是十分重要的.洪水管理旨在最大限度地减少洪泛区的洪灾损失,因此根据洪水发生的量级和频率进行洪水风险评估、制作洪水风险图对于洪水管理至关重要.目前在印度采取的主要防洪措施有:进行堤坝溃决风险分析、发布洪水预警、制作洪水风险图或洪灾风险图等.根据洪灾风险评估确定不同的保险费用,并据此推行防洪保险计划,可能非常有助于洪泛区的区划工作.地形等高线图是进行洪泛区区划的前提条件.根据这些图集和洪水风险评估,洪泛区能够按照区划进行开发活动的分类管理. 相似文献
10.
Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments were conducted in the area surrounding the new Bangkok International Airport. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the flood flow through the study area. Results show different levels of flood hazard for risk zones for 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods of rainfall. 相似文献
11.
12.
洪水保险是一项重要的非工程防洪措施。我国保险业目前没有单独设置洪水保险条款,洪水保险一直依附于企财、家财等险种,其费率按火灾危险等级来确定,没有考虑洪水风险因素。洪水保险费率、洪水保险经营、风险及实施对策的研究成果,将为洪水保险工作的开展提供可靠依据。 相似文献
13.
结合北江大堤洪水风险图试点研究工作 ,从GIS应用开发角度 ,系统阐述设计和开发洪水风险信息管理系统的步骤和技术特征 .该系统集洪水风险基础信息的处理、风险图制作以及灵活的风险信息查询、洪灾损失评估与避难设计等于一体 ,并动态建立了与洪水数值模型的关联 ,使系统能高效地完成各种核心的洪水风险信息分析工作 相似文献
14.
15.
城市洪涝风险的演变趋向、重要特征与应对方略 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
为了寻求新常态下城市防洪减灾的有效对策,通过实地调研、资料分析与国内外的比较研究,探讨了我国城市洪涝损失激增的成因,分析了风险的演变倾向与重要特征。结果表明,2006年以来,我国每年受淹城市都在百座以上,年洪涝直接经济总损失与受淹城市数量呈明显正相关,洪涝损失构成已发生显著变化;1998年我国人口城镇化率突破30%以来,城镇化进程规模空前,目前虽已过了最为迅猛的状态,但仍处于中高速发展阶段,城镇化加剧洪涝风险的压力仍将持续增大;现代城市洪涝损失的连锁性与突变性日趋凸显,亟待基于风险评估建立更为完善的应急响应机制;随着城市人口增长、规模扩张,安全保障要求显著提高,但防洪治涝基础设施建设欠账太多,达标城市数不增反降。为此必须因地制宜,基于风险评估从流域、城市、社区等不同尺度上选择与发展阶段相适宜的减灾策略。 相似文献
16.
nunes Correia Francisco Fordham Maureen da GRAča Saraiva Maria Bernardo Fátima 《Water Resources Management》1998,12(3):209-227
The understanding of how people evaluate and respond to natural hazards in an urban area, and how this knowledge can be integrated in the planning and management process, are becoming very important elements of a comprehensive and participatory approach to flood hazard management. Such an approach demands a clear comprehension of the processes of the risks perception, causal attribution, possible solutions for the problem and patterns of behaviour developed during hazard situations. The willingness of the public to participate in flood management, and the attitudes to previous initiatives also need to be addressed. The provision of structural flood defences can have a major impact on the environment and there has been an expression of concern by many members of the public for the degradation of river corridors. In this context, it is becoming a commonly accepted practice by central or local governments to submit flood management plans to public discussion. Appropriate techniques for interfacing with the public are necessary to support this upsurge of public involvement. This paper presents results from research on public perception of floods, flood management and participatory initiatives in Setúbal, Portugal. An extensive interview programme was undertaken with residents and shopkeepers – with and without flood experience, professionals responsible for dealing with flood control problems and local authorities responsible for decision-making on flood management. The paper concludes with a number of recommendations for flood hazard management policy making and processes. 相似文献
17.
18.
论抵御''98洪水与洪水风险管理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1998年长江流域发生了自1954年以来又一次全流域性大洪水,嫩江和松花江流域也发生了超历史记录的特大洪水.从抵御’98洪水中得出,必须改变单纯的抵御洪水的观念,要对洪水实行全过程风险管理.进行洪水风险管理,最主要的是制定针对洪水灾害的政策.并进一步分析了蓄滞洪区的管理,应加强以下几方面的建设:(1)控制和减少人口;(2)加强安全设施建设;(3)绘制洪水风险留,建立和完善避难的预报和预警系统;(4)建设分蓄洪控制工程;(5)严格土地利用规划及管理,调整产业结构;(6)实行洪水保险制度. 相似文献
19.
从洪水风险图发展历程看,欧洲与我国比较相似,洪水风险图的起步时间比较接近,目前也都处在一个大的发展阶段.本文从洪水风险图的发展背景、洪水风险图的种类、洪水分析计算方法、洪水风险图的制作单位和运用方式等多个方面阐述了欧洲的主要做法,对比了与我国洪水风险图编制工作的异同.为进一步适应我国洪水风险管理工作的需要,建议我国尽早开展洪水危险等级划分标准的研究以及包含风险信息的洪水风险图绘制工作,规范参与洪水风险图绘制的洪水分析计算工具,进一步明确洪水风险图的角色和使用方法等问题. 相似文献
20.
Abstract Flood losses in the north central United States are the nation's highest since 1980. Losses in Iowa rank first nationally and those in two adjacent states rank fourth (Missouri) and sixth (Illinois). Explanations were sought for this three-state regional maximum of flood losses, including geophysical, societal, and climatological conditions. Comparisons of conditions with those of surrounding areas revealed the three states had more land exposure to the major flood-prone rivers (Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio) than any other state or group of states. The region also has a higher population density than surrounding areas and contains three of the five largest metropolitan areas of the Midwest. Farm land values rank just behind those of the three states to the immediate west. Further, the region is the center of the nation's complex surface and riverine transportation systems that are highly vulnerable to flooding. The assessment of regional hydroclimatic factors on enhanced flooding in the three-state region was based on a case study of historic floods on two adjacent basins located near the center of the region. Historic flood data showed systematic, long-term increases in both flood incidence and magnitude. Certain precipitation conditions on the basins also showed systematic temporal increases since the 1920s, including annual precipitation, number of seven-day heavy rain events, and the number of days with precipitation. This climatic shift to more multi-day periods of heavy rain appears to be the major reason that hydrologic flooding in the three states has increased since the 1920s. Analysis of the individual major hydrologic floods revealed five different types of precipitation conditions, including snow-melt situations that produced major floods. The primary cause of major floods was prolonged periods of four- to 13-day durations with intermittent moderate to heavy rains, and these events often included heavy, 15-centimeter rainstorms capable of producing flash floods. Climatic data reveal that the three states experience more heavy rain-producing synoptic weather conditions, cyclonic activity, and intense rainfalls than do most surrounding states. Collectively, these geophysical, hydroclimatic, and societal factors combine to cause the high flood losses in the nation's central region 相似文献