基于变结构径向基函数网络的船舶运动预测PID控制

针对船舶在海上运动的大时滞和动态时变等特点,提出基于一种变结构径向基函数(RBF)神经网络的预测PID控制器.通过建立反映系统动态变化的滑动数据窗口,在线序贯学习窗口内的数据,动态调整隐层节点与隐层至输出层的连接权值,得到结构可自适应变化的RBF网络.将该变结构RBF网络用于预测PID控制器中系统状态的在线多步预测,通过得到的预测模型灵敏度信息在线调整PID控制器参数以控制系统的输出.将该控制器用于船舶航向跟踪控制的仿真实验,结果表明该控制器具有良好的的适应性和鲁棒性.     

基于RBF神经网络的非线性系统的预测

对于非线性系统的预测辨识,提出用动态节点生成构造性RBF神经网络作为预测模型,且RBF神经网络的学习算法采用一种新的全监督式学习算法,即神经网络隐层引入新节点时,通过使新节点的输出尽可能逼近残差序列的方向来获取网络参数,从而减少学习误差,使网络输出能够较好的跟踪系统输出。仿真表明该学习算法的有效性。     

基于RBF神经网络的非线性时间序列在线预测

针对非线性非高斯时间序列, 提出观测噪声服从隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)的径向基函数(RBF)神经网络(RBF-HMM)预测模型, 其特点在于模型输入包含误差反馈项、RBF网络隐含层节点数的可变性和观测噪声的隐马尔可夫性; 并采用序列蒙特卡罗(SMC)方法实现基于RBF-HMM模型的时间序列在线预测. 最后采用太阳黑子数平滑月均值数据和CRU国际钢材价格指数月数据进行实证研究, 结果表明该模型的有效性.     

基于混沌RBF神经网络的汽油机进气流量预测研究

针对汽油机进气流量的多维非线性特性,提出了一种混沌径向基（RBF）神经网络的汽油机进气流量预测模型。证明了汽油机进气流量时间序列具有混沌特性,对采集的原始数据进行相空间重构,利用RBF神经网络对重构后的数据进行训练和预测,并利用混沌算法确定输出层连接权值和隐含层高斯函数径向基中心,使其达到全局最优,加快了RBF神经网络的收敛速度。仿真结果表明,与空气进气流量平均值模型、RBF神经网络预测模型比较,该模型具有更高的预测精度,为精确及时测试汽油机进气流量提供了一种全新的软件测量方法。     

改进的RBF神经网络算法在金融时序列预测中的应用①

在混沌理论的基础上,利用改进的RBF神经网络算法对金融时序列数据进行预测,训练过程中采用动态方法调整径向基函数的中心点和宽度。最后通过对股票数据进行多日滚动预测证明该算法较改进前提高了预测的准确度,缩短了训练时间。     

基于径向基函数神经网络的网络流量识别模型

提出了一种基于径向基函数神经网络的网络流量识别方法。根据实际网络中的流量数据,建立了一个基于RBF神经网络的流量识别模型。先介绍了RBF神经网络的结构设计及学习算法,针对RBF神经网络在隐节点过多的情况下算法过于复杂的缺点,采用了优化的算法计算隐含层节点。仿真实验证明,该模型具有较好的准确率、低复杂度、高识别效果和良好的自适应性。     

基于QPSO-RBF NN的混沌时间序列预测

提出一种基于量子粒子群优化算法训练径向基函数神经网络进行混沌时间序列预测的新方法.在确定径向基函数网络的隐层节点数后,将相应网络的参数,包括隐层基函数中心、扩展常数,以及输出权值和偏移编码成学习算法中的粒子个体,在全局空间中搜索具有最优适应值的参数向量.实例仿真证实了该方法的有效性.     

一种改进PSO优化RBF神经网络的新方法

为了克服神经网络模型结构和参数难以设置的缺点,提出了一种改进粒子群优化的径向基函数(RBF)神经网络的新方法.首先将最近邻聚类用于RBF神经网络隐层中心向量的确定,同时对引入适应度值择优选取的原则对基本粒子群算法进行改进,采用改进粒子群(IMPSO)算法对最近邻聚类的聚类半径进行优化,合理的确定了RBF神经网络的隐层结构.将改进PSO优化的RBF神经网络应用于非线性函数逼近和混沌时间序列预测,经实验仿真验证.与基本粒子群(PSO)算法,收缩因子粒子群(CFA PSO)算法优化的RBF神经网络相比较,其在识别精度和收敛速度上都有了显著的提高.     

改进递归最小二乘RBF神经网络溶解氧预测

为提高溶解氧预测的准确性,将基于改进型递归最小二乘算法优化的径向基函数（ RBF）神经网络方法应用于溶解氧预测。利用K均值聚类算法进行隐层单元中心选择;利用改进型递归最小二乘算法优化RBF神经网络隐含层到输出层的权值。仿真结果表明：该方法对溶解氧的预测具有较好的非线性拟合能力,预测精度优于RBF神经网络和递归最小二乘算法优化的RBF神经网络。     

基于混沌映射的非径向对称基函数的神经网络模型

为提高神经网络模型的预测精度,构建了非径向对称基函数神经网络模型结构。为确定非径向对称基函数神经网络模型参数,采用Ulam-von Neumann映射规则确定混沌变量,利用混沌变量的遍历性获得不同网络结构参数下的最优网络输出,以减少所构建网络模型的实际输出与期望输出的差值,并利用模型输出的误差变化率以决定是否增加新的隐层节点。给出基于混沌映射的非径向对称基函数的网络模型构建步骤。采用基于Mackey-Glass时滞微分方程的混沌时间序列预测问题验证该模型的预测精度,并同其他文献对该序列预测的精度以及所需隐层节点数作对比。比较结果表明,采用该设计模型具有对时间序列预测精度高且所需网络结构规模小等优点。     

A variable‐structure gradient RBF network with its application to predictive ship motion control

The prediction of dynamic behavior of the nonlinear time‐varying process plays an important role in predictive control applications. Although neural network algorithms have been intensively researched in modeling and controlling nonlinear systems in recent years, most of them mainly focused on the static dynamics. In this paper, a variable‐structure gradient radial basis function (RBF) network is implemented for nonlinear real‐time model predictive control, which is achieved by the proposed gradient orthogonal model selection (GOMS) algorithm. By learning the gradient message of real‐time updated data in a sling window, the structure and the connecting parameters of the network can be adaptively adjusted to adapt to the time‐varying dynamics. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with Mackey‐Glass chaotic time series prediction. Moreover, the variable structure network achieved by GOMS algorithm is applied as a multi‐step predictor in a ship course‐tracking control study, results demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed GOMS algorithm and the variable‐RBF‐network based predictive control strategy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley and Sons Asia Pte Ltd and Chinese Automatic Control Society     

Predicting Chaotic Time Series Using Neural and Neurofuzzy Models: A Comparative Study

The prediction accuracy and generalization ability of neural/neurofuzzy models for chaotic time series prediction highly depends on employed network model as well as learning algorithm. In this study, several neural and neurofuzzy models with different learning algorithms are examined for prediction of several benchmark chaotic systems and time series. The prediction performance of locally linear neurofuzzy models with recently developed Locally Linear Model Tree (LoLiMoT) learning algorithm is compared with that of Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network with Orthogonal Least Squares (OLS) learning algorithm, MultiLayer Perceptron neural network with error back-propagation learning algorithm, and Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System. Particularly, cross validation techniques based on the evaluation of error indices on multiple validation sets is utilized to optimize the number of neurons and to prevent over fitting in the incremental learning algorithms. To make a fair comparison between neural and neurofuzzy models, they are compared at their best structure based on their prediction accuracy, generalization, and computational complexity. The experiments are basically designed to analyze the generalization capability and accuracy of the learning techniques when dealing with limited number of training samples from deterministic chaotic time series, but the effect of noise on the performance of the techniques is also considered. Various chaotic systems and time series including Lorenz system, Mackey-Glass chaotic equation, Henon map, AE geomagnetic activity index, and sunspot numbers are examined as case studies. The obtained results indicate the superior performance of incremental learning algorithms and their respective networks, such as, OLS for RBF network and LoLiMoT for locally linear neurofuzzy model.     

基于在线减法聚类的RBF神经网络结构设计

以设计最小径向基函数（RBF）神经网络结构为着眼点,提出一种在线RBF网络结构设计算法.该算法将在线减法聚类能实时跟踪工况的特性与RBF网络参数学习过程相结合,使得网络既能在线适应实时对象的变化又能维持紧凑的结构,有效地解决了RBF神经网络结构自组织问题.该算法只调整欧氏距离距实时工况最近的核函数,大大提高了网络的学习速度.通过对典型非线性函数逼近和混沌时间序列预测的仿真,表明所提出的算法具有良好的动态特性响应能力和逼近能力.     

基于径向基函数神经网络的混沌背景谐波提取

为提高强混沌背景下谐波信号的提取能力,给出混沌系统的单步预测模型,提出了一种新的径向基函数神经网络模型.由混沌吸引子的维数来确定网络的输入,并给出了基于卡尔曼滤波器的动态学习算法,利用学习算法可以在网络训练时同时确定径向基神经网络隐层中心和输出层权值,提高了网络的收敛速度和预测性能.通过对Bossler混沌背景下低信噪比谐波信号的提取进行计算机认真实验,并且实验表明信噪比最低达一27dB时,仍能有效提取出谐波信号,验证了算法的有效性和可行性.     

Prediction of noisy chaotic time series using an optimal radialbasis function neural network

This paper considers the problem of optimum prediction of noisy chaotic time series using a basis function neural network, in particular, the radial basis function (RBF) network. In the noiseless environment, predicting a chaotic time series is equivalent to approximating a nonlinear function. The optimal generalization is achieved when the number of hidden units of a RBF predictor approaches infinity. When noise exists, it is shown that an optimal RBF predictor should use a finite number of hidden units. To determine the structure of an optimal RBF predictor, we propose a new technique called the cross-validated subspace method to estimate the optimum number of hidden units. While the subspace technique is used to identify a suitable number of hidden units by detecting the dimension of the subspace spanned by the signal eigenvectors, the cross validation method is applied to prevent the problem of overfitting. The effectiveness of this new method is evaluated using simulated noisy chaotic time series as well as real-life oceanic radar signals. Results show that the proposed method can find the correct number of hidden units of an RBF network for an optimal prediction.     

MULTI-LAYER CORRECTIVE CASCADE ARCHITECTURE FOR ON-LINE PREDICTIVE ECHO STATE NETWORKS

An architecture for on-line learning of time series prediction is presented which uses a series of echo state networks (ESNs). Each ESN learns to predict an error correction term for the previous ESN. This technique is demonstrated to improve prediction accuracy for on-line learning of the Mackey-Glass chaotic oscillator. The results are compared to other architectural configurations to show that the improved performance emerges from sequential ESN error correction. A new recurrent network structure is shown to be a useful simplification of the usual ESN reservoir.     

高速公路RBF神经网络限速控制

针对高速公路限速控制是一个非线性时变系统、难以用数学模型准确建模这一特点,提出了RBF神经网络控制方法。阐述了RBF神经网络的结构和训练方法,根据高速公路主线上车辆数目以及路面状况、气象条件等信息,建立交通流速度控制RBF神经网络模型,并进行了仿真研究。该网络学习速度快、自适应强,泛化能力好,对交通流限速控制的在线建模具有重要意义。     

基于云遗传的RBF神经网络的交通流量预测

以神经网络和混沌时间序列理论为基础,提出了一种基于云遗传的RBF神经网络优化算法。该算法利用云模型云滴的随机性和稳定倾向性的特点,由正态云模型的Y条件云发生器实现交叉操作,由基本云发生器实现变异操作,提高了遗传搜索的效率,精简了网络结构。将该算法应用到Logistic混沌时间序列和实测交通流时间序列进行算法的有效性验证,并与传统的RBF算法和遗传算法优化的RBF算法（GARBF）进行比较。仿真结果表明该算法对混沌时间序列和交通流预测的精度有较大提高,从而证明该算法在交通流时间序列预测领域的可行性和有效性。     

基于支持向量机的混沌时间序列预测分析

混沌的特性决定了混沌系统很难长期预测,支持向量机有强大的学习能力,根据相空间重构理论用支持向量机建立预测模型对混沌时间序列进行短期预测。预测输出构建混沌吸引子来定性评价预测模型性能,同时与BP神经网络RBF神经网络构建的预测模型比较,计算预测模型的均方根误差定量地评价模型的性能。仿真结果表明,该方法具有较高的预测精度和泛化能力。