Characterizing model uncertainties in the life cycle of lignocellulose-based ethanol fuels

Renewable and low carbon fuel standards being developed at federal and state levels require an estimation of the life cycle carbon intensity (LCCI) of candidate fuels that can substitute for gasoline, such as second generation bioethanol. Estimating the LCCI of such fuels with a high degree of confidence requires the use of probabilistic methods to account for known sources of uncertainty. We construct life cycle models for the bioconversion of agricultural residue (corn stover) and energy crops (switchgrass) and explicitly examine uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. Using statistical methods to identify significant model variables from public data sets and Aspen Plus chemical process models,we estimate stochastic life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the two feedstocks combined with two promising fuel conversion technologies. The approach can be generalized to other biofuel systems. Our results show potentially high and uncertain GHG emissions for switchgrass-ethanol due to uncertain CO? flux from land use change and N?O flux from N fertilizer. However, corn stover-ethanol,with its low-in-magnitude, tight-in-spread LCCI distribution, shows considerable promise for reducing life cycle GHG emissions relative to gasoline and corn-ethanol. Coproducts are important for reducing the LCCI of all ethanol fuels we examine.     

Bioethanol production from sugar beet molasses and thick juice by free and immobilised Saccharomyces cerevisiae

The aim of this study was the investigation and comparison of the potential of sugar beet molasses and thick juice as raw materials for bioethanol production, as renewable and sustainable energy sources. Ethanol fermentation of a wide range of initial sugar concentrations (100–300 g/L) was performed using either free or immobilised Saccharomyces cerevisiae in calcium alginate beads in the absence of any added nutrients. In general, immobilised cells showed better fermentative performance, enhanced ethanol productivity, stability and cell viability compared with free cells, under the same fermentation conditions. The high concentration of non‐sugar components contained in molasses affected yeast fermentation performance and viability. Maximum ethanol concentration in fermented media of 84.6 and 109.5 g/L were obtained by immobilised cells for initial sugar concentrations of 200 and 250 g/L for molasses and thick juice, respectively. However, the highest ethanol yields of 31.7 L per 100 kg of molasses and 37.6 L per 100 kg of thick juice were obtained by immobilised cells at an initial sugar concentration of 175 g/L. In the high gravity fermentation process, thick juice resulted in a higher ethanol yield per mass of raw material compared with molasses. This study shows the advantage of immobilised yeast for the efficient production of high gravity bioethanol from thick juice, which was a more favourable raw material than molasses. © 2018 The Institute of Brewing & Distilling     

Greenhouse gas emission reductions from domestic anaerobic digesters linked with sustainable sanitation in rural China

Anaerobic digesters provide clean, renewable energy (biogas) by converting organic waste to methane, and are a key part of China's comprehensive rural energy plan. Here, experimental and modeling results are used to quantify the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction from substituting a household anaerobic digester for traditional energy sources in Sichuan, China. Tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy and radial plume mapping were used to estimate the mass flux of fugitive methane emissions from active digesters. Using household energy budgets, the net improvement in GHG emissions associated with biogas installation was estimated using global warming commitment (GWC) as a consolidated measure of the warming effects of GHG emissions from cooking. In all scenarios biogas households had lower GWC than nonbiogas households, by as much as 54%. Even biogas households with methane leakage exhibited lower GWC than nonbiogas households, by as much as 48%. Based only on the averted GHG emissions over 10 years, the monetary value of a biogas installation was conservatively estimated at US$28.30 ($16.07 ton(-1) CO(2)-eq), which is available to partly offset construction costs. The interaction of biogas installation programs with policies supporting improved stoves, renewable harvesting of biomass, and energy interventions with substantial health cobenefits are discussed.     

Environmental implications of municipal solid waste-derived ethanol

We model a municipal solid waste (MSW)-to-ethanol facility that employs dilute acid hydrolysis and gravity pressure vessel technology and estimate life cycle energy use and air emissions. We compare our results, assuming the ethanol is utilized as E85 (blended with 15% gasoline) in a light-duty vehicle, with extant life cycle assessments of gasoline, corn-ethanol, and energy crop-cellulosic-ethanol fueled vehicles. We also compare MSW-ethanol production, as a waste management alternative, with landfilling with gas recovery options. We find that the life cycle total energy use per vehicle mile traveled for MSW-ethanol is less than that of corn-ethanol and cellulosic-ethanol; and energy use from petroleum sources for MSW-ethanol is lower than for the other fuels. MSW-ethanol use in vehicles reduces net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 65% compared to gasoline, and by 58% when compared to corn-ethanol. Relative GHG performance with respect to cellulosic ethanol depends on whether MSW classification is included or not. Converting MSW to ethanol will result in net fossil energy savings of 397-1830 MJ/MT MSW compared to net fossil energy consumption of 177-577 MJ/MT MSW for landfilling. However, landfilling with LFG recovery either for flaring or for electricity production results in greater reductions in GHG emissions compared to MSW-to-ethanol conversion.     

Beef production in balance: considerations for life cycle analyses

Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) are useful tools to analyze a product's "carbon footprint" (e.g., the net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions expressed as standardized carbon dioxide equivalents per unit of product) considering all phases of the production chain. For beef, an LCA would include the GHG emissions from feed production, from the enteric fermentation of the cattle, from the cattle's waste, and from processing and transportation. Identifying the scope and scale of the LCA is critical and key to preventing inappropriate applications of the analysis (e.g., applying a global LCA for beef to the regional or national scale). Ideally, a LCA can integrate the complex biogeochemical processes responsible for GHG emissions and the disparate animal and agricultural management techniques used be different phases of the beef production chain (e.g., feedlot vs. cow-calf) and different production systems (e.g., conventional vs. organic).     

Assessing GHG emissions, ecological footprint, and water linkage for different fuels

Currently, transport is highly dependent on fossil fuels and responsible for about 23% of world energy-related GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. Ethanol from sugar cane and corn emerges as an alternative for gasoline in order to mitigate GHG emissions. Additionally, deeper offshore drilling projects such as in the Brazilian Pre-Salt reservoirs and mining projects of nonconventional sources like Tar Sands in Canada could be a solution for supplying demand of fossil fuels in the short and midterm. Based on updated literature, this paper presents an assessment of GHG emissions for four different fuels: ethanol from sugar cane and from corn and gasoline from conventional crude oil and from tar sands. An Ecological Footprint analysis is also presented, which shows that ethanol from sugar cane has the lowest GHG emissions and requires the lowest biocapacity per unit of energy produced among these fuels. Finally, an analysis using the Embodied Water concept is made with the introduction of a new concept, the "CO(2)-Water", to illustrate the impacts of releasing carbon from underground to atmosphere and of the water needed to sequestrate it over the life cycle of the assessed fuels. Using this method resulted that gasoline from fossil fuels would indirectly "require" on average as much water as ethanol from sugar cane per unit of fuel energy produced.     

Life cycle assessment of switchgrass- and corn stover-derived ethanol-fueled automobiles

Utilizing domestically produced cellulose-derived ethanol for the light-duty vehicle fleet can potentially improve the environmental performance and sustainability of the transport and energy sectors of the economy. A life cycle assessment model was developed to examine environmental implications of the production and use of ethanol in automobiles in Ontario, Canada. The results were compared to those of low-sulfur reformulated gasoline (RFG) in a functionally equivalent automobile. Two time frames were evaluated, one near-term (2010), which examines converting a dedicated energy crop (switchgrass) and an agricultural residue (corn stover) to ethanol; and one midterm (2020), which assumes technological improvements in the switchgrass-derived ethanol life cycle. Near-term results show that, compared to a RFG automobile, life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are 57% lower for an E85-fueled automobile derived from switchgrass and 65% lower for ethanol from corn stover, on a grams of CO2 equivalent per kilometer basis. Corn stover ethanol exhibits slightly lower life cycle GHG emissions, primarily due to sharing emissions with grain production. Through projected improvements in crop and ethanol yields, results for the mid-term scenario show that GHG emissions could be 25-35% lower than those in 2010 and that, even with anticipated improvements in RFG automobiles, E85 automobiles could still achieve up to 70% lower GHG emissions across the life cycle.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels' indirect land use change are uncertain but may be much greater than previously estimated

The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions induced by increased biofuel consumption are highly uncertain: individual estimates vary from each other and each has a wide intrinsic error band. Using a reduced-form model, we estimated that the bounding range for emissions from indirect land-use change (ILUC) from US corn ethanol expansion was 10 to 340 g CO(2) MJ(-1). Considering various probability distributions to model parameters, the broadest 95% central interval, i.e., between the 2.5 and 97.5%ile values, ranged from 21 to 142 g CO(2)e MJ(-1). ILUC emissions from US corn ethanol expansion thus range from small, but not negligible, to several times greater than the life cycle emissions of gasoline. The ILUC emissions estimates of 30 g CO(2) MJ(-1) for the California Air Resources Board and 34 g CO(2)e MJ(-1) by USEPA (for 2022) are at the low end of the plausible range. The lack of data and understanding (epistemic uncertainty) prevents convergence of judgment on a central value for ILUC emissions. The complexity of the global system being modeled suggests that this range is unlikely to narrow substantially in the near future. Fuel policies that require narrow bounds around point estimates of life cycle GHG emissions are thus incompatible with current and anticipated modeling capabilities. Alternative policies that address the risks associated with uncertainty are more likely to achieve GHG reductions.     

125th Anniversary Review: Fuel Alcohol: Current Production and Future Challenges

Global research and industrial development of liquid transportation biofuels are moving at a rapid pace. This is mainly due to the significant roles played by biofuels in decarbonising our future energy needs, since they act to mitigate the deleterious impacts of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere that are contributors of climate change. Governmental obligations and international directives that mandate the blending of biofuels in petrol and diesel are also acting as great stimuli to this expanding industrial sector. Currently, the predominant liquid biofuel is bioethanol (fuel alcohol) and its worldwide production is dominated by maize‐based and sugar cane‐based processes in North and South America, respectively. In Europe, fuel alcohol production employs primarily wheat and sugar beet. Potable distilled spirit production and fuel alcohol processes share many similarities in terms of starch bioconversion, fermentation, distillation and co‐product utilisation, but there are some key differences. For example, in certain bioethanol fermentations, it is now possible to yield consistently high ethanol concentrations of ˜20% (v/v). Emerging fuel alcohol processes exploit lignocellulosic feedstocks and scientific and technological constraints involved in depolymerising these materials and efficiently fermenting the hydrolysate sugars are being overcome. These so‐called second‐generation fuel alcohol processes are much more environmentally and ethically acceptable compared with exploitation of starch and sugar resources, especially when considering utilisation of residual agricultural biomass and biowastes. This review covers both first and second‐generation bioethanol processes with a focus on current challenges and future opportunities of lignocellulose‐to‐ethanol as this technology moves from demonstration pilot‐plants to full‐scale industrial facilities.     

Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts

Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.     

Methods to determine the relative value of genetic traits in dairy cows to reduce greenhouse gas emissions along the chain

Current decisions on breeding in dairy farming are mainly based on economic values of heritable traits, as earning an income is a primary objective of farmers. Recent literature, however, shows that breeding also has potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this paper was to compare 2 methods to determine GHG values of genetic traits. Method 1 calculates GHG values using the current strategy (i.e., maximizing labor income), whereas method 2 is based on minimizing GHG per kilogram of milk and shows what can be achieved if the breeding results are fully directed at minimizing GHG emissions. A whole-farm optimization model was used to determine results before and after 1 genetic standard deviation improvement (i.e., unit change) of milk yield and longevity. The objective function of the model differed between method 1 and 2. Method 1 maximizes labor income; method 2 minimizes GHG emissions per kilogram of milk while maintaining labor income and total milk production at least at the level before the change in trait. Results show that the full potential of the traits to reduce GHG emissions given the boundaries that were set for income and milk production (453 and 441 kg of CO₂ equivalents/unit change per cow per year for milk yield and longevity, respectively) is about twice as high as the reduction based on maximizing labor income (247 and 210 kg of CO₂ equivalents/unit change per cow per year for milk yield and longevity, respectively). The GHG value of milk yield is higher than that of longevity, especially when the focus is on maximizing labor income. Based on a sensitivity analysis, it was shown that including emissions from land use change and using different methods for handling the interaction between milk and meat production can change results, generally in favor of milk yield. Results can be used by breeding organizations that want to include GHG values in their breeding goal. To verify GHG values, the effect of prices and emissions factors should be considered, as well as the potential effect of variation between farm types.     

Forest bioenergy or forest carbon? Assessing trade-offs in greenhouse gas mitigation with wood-based fuels

The potential of forest-based bioenergy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when displacing fossil-based energy must be balanced with forest carbon implications related to biomass harvest. We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) and forest carbon analysis to assess total GHG emissions of forest bioenergy over time. Application of the method to case studies of wood pellet and ethanol production from forest biomass reveals a substantial reduction in forest carbon due to bioenergy production. For all cases, harvest-related forest carbon reductions and associated GHG emissions initially exceed avoided fossil fuel-related emissions, temporarily increasing overall emissions. In the long term, electricity generation from pellets reduces overall emissions relative to coal, although forest carbon losses delay net GHG mitigation by 16-38 years, depending on biomass source (harvest residues/standing trees). Ethanol produced from standing trees increases overall emissions throughout 100 years of continuous production: ethanol from residues achieves reductions after a 74 year delay. Forest carbon more significantly affects bioenergy emissions when biomass is sourced from standing trees compared to residues and when less GHG-intensive fuels are displaced. In all cases, forest carbon dynamics are significant. Although study results are not generalizable to all forests, we suggest the integrated LCA/forest carbon approach be undertaken for bioenergy studies.     

Calculator tool for determining greenhouse gas emissions for biosolids processing and end use

A greenhouse gas (GHG) calculator tool (Biosolids Emissions Assessment Model, BEAM) was developed for the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment to allow municipalities to estimate GHG emissions from biosolids management. The tool was developed using data from peer reviewed literature and municipalities. GHG emissions from biosolids processing through final end use/disposal were modeled. Emissions from nine existing programs in Canada were estimated using the model. The program that involved dewatering followed by combustion resulted in the highest GHG emissions (Mg CO(2)e 100 Mg(-1) biosolids (dry wt.). The programs that had digestion followed by land application resulted in the lowest emissions (-26 and -23 Mg CO(2)e 100 Mg(-1) biosolids (dry wt.). Transportation had relatively minor effects on overall emissions. The greatest areas of uncertainty in the model include N(2)O emissions from land application and biosolids processing. The model suggests that targeted use of biosolids and optimizing processes to avoid CH(4) and N(2)O emissions can result in significant GHG savings.     

Life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from plug-in hybrid vehicles: implications for policy

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. However, meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. We assess life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs and find that they reduce GHG emissions by 32% compared to conventional vehicles, but have small reductions compared to traditional hybrids. Batteries are an important component of PHEVs, and GHGs associated with lithium-ion battery materials and production account for 2-5% of life cycle emissions from PHEVs. We consider cellulosic ethanol use and various carbon intensities of electricity. The reduced liquid fuel requirements of PHEVs could leverage limited cellulosic ethanol resources. Electricity generation infrastructure is long-lived, and technology decisions within the next decade about electricity supplies in the power sector will affectthe potential for large GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs for several decades.     

Incorporating time-corrected life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in vehicle regulations

Beginning with model year 2012, light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. are subject to new rules that regulate tailpipe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on grams of CO(2)-equivalent per mile (gCO(2)e/mi). However, improvements in vehicle technology, lower-carbon fuels, and improvements in GHG accounting practices which account for distortions related to emissions timing all contribute to shifting a greater portion of life cycle emissions away from the vehicle use phase and toward the vehicle production phase. This article proposes methods for calculating time-corrected life cycle emissions intensity on a gCO(2)e/mi basis and explores whether regulating only tailpipe CO(2) could lead to an undesirable regulatory outcome, where technologies and vehicle architectures with higher life cycle GHGs are favored over technologies with lower life cycle emissions but with higher tailpipe GHG emissions. Two life cycle GHG assessments for future vehicles are presented in addition to time correction factors for production and end-of-life GHG emissions. Results demonstrate that, based on the vehicle designs considered here, there is a potential for favoring vehicles with higher life cycle emissions if only tailpipe emissions are regulated; moreover, the application of time correction factors amplifies the importance of production emissions and the potential for a perverse outcome.     

Policy implications of uncertainty in modeled life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels

Biofuels have received legislative support recently in California's Low-Carbon Fuel Standard and the Federal Energy Independence and Security Act. Both present new fuel types, but neither provides methodological guidelines for dealing with the inherent uncertainty in evaluating their potential life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions reductions are based on point estimates only. This work demonstrates the use of Monte Carlo simulation to estimate life-cycle emissions distributions from ethanol and butanol from corn or switchgrass. Life-cycle emissions distributions for each feedstock and fuel pairing modeled span an order of magnitude or more. Using a streamlined life-cycle assessment, corn ethanol emissions range from 50 to 250 g CO(2)e/MJ, for example, and each feedstock-fuel pathway studied shows some probability of greater emissions than a distribution for gasoline. Potential GHG emissions reductions from displacing fossil fuels with biofuels are difficult to forecast given this high degree of uncertainty in life-cycle emissions. This uncertainty is driven by the importance and uncertainty of indirect land use change emissions. Incorporating uncertainty in the decision making process can illuminate the risks of policy failure (e.g., increased emissions), and a calculated risk of failure due to uncertainty can be used to inform more appropriate reduction targets in future biofuel policies.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from milk production and consumption in the United States: A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment circa 2008

This article presents a cradle-to-grave analysis of the United States fluid milk supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are accounted from fertilizer production through consumption and disposal of milk packaging. Crop production and on-farm GHG emissions were evaluated using public data and 536 farm operation surveys. Milk processing data were collected from 50 dairy plants nationwide. Retail and consumer GHG emissions were estimated from primary data, design estimates, and publicly available data. Total GHG emissions, based primarily on 2007 to 2008 data, were 2.05 (90% confidence limits: 1.77–2.4) kg CO₂e per kg milk consumed, which accounted for loss of 12% at retail and an additional 20% loss at consumption. A complementary analysis showed the entire dairy sector contributes approximately 1.9% of US GHG emissions. While the largest GHG contributors are feed production, enteric methane, and manure management; there are opportunities to reduce impacts throughout the supply chain.     

Potentials for sustainable transportation in cities to alleviate climate change impacts

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is an important social goal to mitigate climate change. A common mitigation paradigm is to consider strategy "wedges" that can be applied to different activities to achieve desired GHG reductions. In this policy analysis piece, we consider a wide range of possible strategies to reduce light-duty vehicle GHG emissions, including fuel and vehicle options, low carbon and renewable power, travel demand management and land use changes. We conclude that no one strategy will be sufficient to meet GHG emissions reduction goals to avoid climate change. However, many of these changes have positive combinatorial effects, so the best strategy is to pursue combinations of transportation GHG reduction strategies to meet reduction goals. Agencies need to broaden their agendas to incorporate such combination in their planning.     

Life cycle assessment of potential biojet fuel production in the United States

The objective of this paper is to reveal to what degree biobased jet fuels (biojet) can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the U.S. aviation sector. A model of the supply and demand chain of biojet involving farmers, biorefineries, airlines, and policymakers is developed by considering factors that drive the decisions of actors (i.e., decision-makers and stakeholders) in the life cycle stages. Two kinds of feedstock are considered: oil-producing feedstock (i.e., camelina and algae) and lignocellulosic biomass (i.e., corn stover, switchgrass, and short rotation woody crops). By factoring in farmer/feedstock producer and biorefinery profitability requirements and risk attitudes, land availability and suitability, as well as a time delay and technological learning factor, a more realistic estimate of the level of biojet supply and emissions reduction can be developed under different oil price assumptions. Factors that drive biojet GHG emissions and unit production costs from each feedstock are identified and quantified. Overall, this study finds that at likely adoption rates biojet alone would not be sufficient to achieve the aviation emissions reduction target. In 2050, under high oil price scenario assumption, GHG emissions can be reduced to a level ranging from 55 to 92%, with a median value of 74%, compared to the 2005 baseline level.     

Life cycle assessment of a parabolic trough concentrating solar power plant and the impacts of key design alternatives

Climate change and water scarcity are important issues for today's power sector. To inform capacity expansion decisions, hybrid life cycle assessment is used to evaluate a reference design of a parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) facility located in Daggett, CA, along four sustainability metrics: life cycle (LC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water consumption, cumulative energy demand (CED), and energy payback time (EPBT). This wet-cooled, 103 MW plant utilizes mined nitrates salts in its two-tank, thermal energy storage (TES) system. Design alternatives of dry-cooling, a thermocline TES, and synthetically derived nitrate salt are evaluated. During its LC, the reference CSP plant is estimated to emit 26 g of CO(2eq) per kWh, consume 4.7 L/kWh of water, and demand 0.40 MJ(eq)/kWh of energy, resulting in an EPBT of approximately 1 year. The dry-cooled alternative is estimated to reduce LC water consumption by 77% but increase LC GHG emissions and CED by 8%. Synthetic nitrate salts may increase LC GHG emissions by 52% compared to mined. Switching from two-tank to thermocline TES configuration reduces LC GHG emissions, most significantly for plants using synthetically derived nitrate salts. CSP can significantly reduce GHG emissions compared to fossil-fueled generation; however, dry-cooling may be required in many locations to minimize water consumption.