Ecological food web analysis for chemical risk assessment

Food web analysis can be a critical component of ecological risk assessment, yet it has received relatively little attention among risk assessors. Food web data are currently used in modeling bioaccumulation of toxic chemicals and, to a limited extent, in the determination of the ecological significance of risks. Achieving more realism in ecological risk assessments requires new analysis tools and models that incorporate accurate information on key receptors in a food web paradigm. Application of food web analysis in risk assessments demands consideration of: 1) different kinds of food webs; 2) definition of trophic guilds; 3) variation in food webs with habitat, space, and time; and 4) issues for basic sampling design and collection of dietary data. The different kinds of food webs include connectance webs, materials flow webs, and functional (or interaction) webs. These three kinds of webs play different roles throughout various phases of an ecological risk assessment, but risk assessors have failed to distinguish among web types. When modeling food webs, choices must be made regarding the level of complexity for the web, assignment of species to trophic guilds, selection of representative species for guilds, use of average diets, the characterization of variation among individuals or guild members within a web, and the spatial and temporal scales/dynamics of webs. Integrating exposure and effects data in ecological models for risk assessment of toxic chemicals relies on coupling food web analysis with bioaccumulation models (e.g., Gobas-type models for fish and their food webs), wildlife exposure models, dose-response models, and population dynamics models.     

Heavy metal pollution status in surface sediments of the coastal Bohai Bay

Bohai Bay, the second largest bay of Bohai Sea, largely due to the huge amount of pollutants discharged into it annually and its geohydrologic condition, is considered to be one of the most polluted marine areas in China. To slow down, halt and finally reverse the environmental deterioration of Bohai Sea, some researchers have proposed to connect it with Jiaozhou Bay in the western coast of Southern Yellow Sea by digging an interbasin canal through Shandong Peninsula. In order to assess the heavy metal pollution and provide background information for such a large geoengineering scheme, surface sediments from 42 stations covering both riverine and marine regions of the northwestern coast of Bohai Bay were analyzed for heavy metal content and fractionation (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn). Three empirically derived sediment quality guidelines were used to assess the pollution extent of these metals. The studied metals had low mobility except for Cd at all stations and Zn at some riverine stations. Although a high mobility of Cd was observed, it could hardly cause a bad effect on the environment owing to its low total concentrations. Anthropogenic influence on the accumulation of studied heavy metals in sediments of Bohai Bay was obvious, but their contents were relatively lower to date comparing with some other marine coastal areas that receive important anthropogenic inputs. Taking as a whole, surface sediments of northwestern Bohai Bay had a 21% probability of toxicity based on the mean effects range-median quotient.     

A comparison of PCB bioaccumulation factors between an arctic and a temperate marine food web

To test how environmental conditions in the Arctic and the resulting ecological adaptations affect accumulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the marine food web, bioaccumulation of four polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in an arctic (Barents Sea 77 °N-82 °N) and a temperate marine (Baltic Sea 54 °N-62 °N) food web were compared. Three different trophic levels were studied (zooplankton, fish, and seal), representing the span from first-level consumer to top predator. Previously published high-quality data on PCB water concentrations in the two areas were used for calculation of bioaccumulation factors (BAF). BAF was calculated as the ratio of the PCB concentration in the organism ([PCB]_org; pg/kg lipid) to the dissolved water concentration (C_w; pg/L). The BAF_Arctic:BAF_Temperate ratios were above 1 for all four PCB congeners in zooplankton (6.4-13.8) and planktivorous fish (2.9-5.0)), whereas the ratios were below 1 in seal. The mean ratio between arctic and temperate BAFs for all trophic levels and congeners (BAF_Arcti:BAF_Temperate) was 4.8. When the data were corrected for the seawater temperature difference between the two ecosystems, the ratio was 2.0. We conclude that bioaccumulation differences caused by ecological or physiological adaptations of organisms between the two ecosystems were well within a water concentration variability of 50%. Further, our data support the hypothesis that lower seawater temperature lead to a thermodynamically favoured passive partitioning to organic matrices and thus elevated ambient BAFs in the Arctic compared to the Baltic Sea. This would imply that bioaccumulation in the Arctic may be described in the same way as bioaccumulation in temperate regions, e.g. by the use of mechanistic models parameterised for the Arctic.     

Ecological risk assessment in legislation on contaminated soil in The Netherlands

Recently the Dutch soil policy was revised including new rules for the relocation of contaminated soil and dredged soil material. With these rules, new methods for ecotoxicological risk assessment were implemented. One of the new methods is the assessment of the local toxic pressure of mixtures, also known as the ms-PAF- method, based on the Species Sensitivity Distribution concept. The ms-PAF method is applied for risk assessment of spreading of dredged soil material on adjacent land. Its application will possibly be extended to the derivation of local soil quality standards relevant in the context of soil relocation. The application of the local toxic pressure will probably increase the reuse of contaminated soil and dredged soil material and hence will reduce the amounts considered to be unfit for use. With this method, local ecological risk limits are derived using pore water concentrations and effects on water organisms. Pore water concentrations are subsequently transferred to total soil concentrations using empirical relationships. The methodology does not impose upper limits for total soil concentrations. In soils with a high sorption capacity, total soil concentrations that are considered to be acceptable may be several times higher than the current Dutch intervention values. The possible introduction of the ms-PAF method will open the door to local soil relocation with soils containing large amounts of (semi-permanently soil bound) contaminants. Since the ms-PAF method is not yet properly validated, the lack of evidence of ecological effects using models like the ms-PAF method cannot be regarded as an indication for the absence of effects in reality. The Dutch soil quality decree would gain environmental ambition when the ms-PAF method was combined with a realistic upper limit on total soil concentrations. This would prevent contamination of land by means of soil relocation.     

村寨建筑群火灾蔓延风险简化评估方法

针对火灾蔓延模拟工作量大、对防火构造考虑不充分等问题,结合云南勐卡老寨的火灾蔓延风险评估,提出了一种基于网络模型的村寨建筑群火灾蔓延简化分析方法。该方法通过现场勘查和简化计算确定建筑火灾向周边蔓延的路径,建立建筑群火灾蔓延网络的邻接矩阵,进一步结合网络节点遍历算法确定出不同火灾场景下的蔓延范围,在此基础上分析了不同火灾场景、不同区域的火灾蔓延风险。     

基于文献调研的我国建筑结构地震倒塌风险概率评估

基于文献调研,搜集和整理了我国近年来关于建筑结构地震倒塌易损性方面的研究成果,建立了我国建筑结构地震倒塌易损性数据库。基于经典的Cornell地震风险概率计算公式,分别以谱加速度和峰值加速度为地震动强度参数,计算了我国建筑结构的地震倒塌风险概率。通过与美国抗震设计规范FEMA P750和欧洲学者建议的关于建筑结构地震倒塌风险的相关要求进行对比,对我国建筑结构的地震倒塌风险水平进行了评估。分析结果表明:由于我国现行抗震设计规范GB 50011—2010中并未对结构地震倒塌风险做一致性要求,因此,我国建筑结构的地震倒塌风险概率结果分布较广;随着建筑结构抗震设防等级的提高,其地震倒塌风险概率也随之增加;相比于美国规范和欧洲学者研究成果,我国现行抗震设计规范尚不能对结构的地震倒塌风险进行有效控制。     

基于模糊理论的软件项目风险评估模型构建

为有效控制软件项目风险管理,提出一种新的评估模型,融合模糊理论、风险权重和专家信任度等概念,对软件项目中的风险进行评估.该模型除了计算出通常用于衡量风险程度的风险当量以外,还计算出多种风险对某种风险后果的组合影响,以及单个风险对整体后果的综合影响,使评估者从宏观和微观上充分度量出项目中的风险危害,从而为风险的缓解和控制提供了可靠的依据.     

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of hall buildings in Turkey

Steel space framed hall buildings are dedicated as shelters for people suffering from earthquakes. In general construction, steel space frames are built on reinforced concrete (R/C) frames or wall structures above the bottom side. For this reason, the bottom side has higher rigidity comparing with the upper side. In Turkey, where there is a very high earthquake risk, earthquake‐resistant steel space framed structures is an important issue. In this current research, hall buildings in Turkey, involving two different rigidity parts as R/C and steel, are taken into consideration regarding earthquake effect. In this study, three different hall structures were modeled with different elastic moduli for the analysis part. Nonlinear time history analyses were applied with 25 different earthquake data for performance estimation. After the time history analyses, probabilistic seismic assessment was carried out for the model buildings through fragility analyses. For each model, analysis results were evaluated and compared. As a result, the hall buildings were found to be vulnerable to damage during expected future earthquakes. Moreover, elastic moduli have significant effect on the structural response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diastereomer-specific bioaccumulation of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) in a coastal food web, Western Norway

The present study reports diastereomer-specific accumulation of HBCD from a point source in five marine species representing a typical food web in a Norwegian coastal area. Samples of mussels, polychaetes, crabs and seabird eggs were analyzed for the diastereomers α-, β- and γ-HBCD, as well as lipid content and stable isotopes of nitrogen (¹⁵N/¹⁴N) to estimate trophic level. Accumulated HBCD did not correlate well with lipid content for most of the species, thus wet-weight based concentrations were included in an assessment of biomagnification. In contrast to β- and γ-HBCD, the α-diastereomer increased significantly with trophic level, resulting in magnification factors > 1 in this coastal marine ecosystem. Data for poikilotherms did not show the same positive correlation between the α-diastereomer and trophic position as homeotherms. The apparent biomagnification of the α-HBCD could be due to bioisomerization or diastereomer-specific elimination that differed between poikilotherms and homeotherms.     

风险矩阵法在A水泥工厂风险分级的应用初探

本文介绍“风险矩阵法”进行风险分级工作的基本思路,结合水泥厂的生产特点通过危险有害因素辨识,获得危险源分布情况,采用风险矩阵法对风险进行评估,按风险值将风险等级划分为重大风险、较大风险、一般风险和低风险,为水泥生产企业的安全风险分级工作提供参考。     

Patterning ecological risk of pesticide contamination at the river basin scale

Ecological risk assessment was conducted to determine the risk posed by pesticide mixtures to the Adour-Garonne river basin (south-western France). The objectives of this study were to assess the general state of this basin with regard to pesticide contamination using a risk assessment procedure and to detect patterns in toxic mixture assemblages through a self-organizing map (SOM) methodology in order to identify the locations at risk. Exposure assessment, risk assessment with species sensitivity distribution, and mixture toxicity rules were used to compute six relative risk predictors for different toxic modes of action: the multi-substance potentially affected fraction of species depending on the toxic mode of action of compounds found in the mixture (msPAF CA_TMoA values). Those predictors computed for the 131 sampling sites assessed in this study were then patterned through the SOM learning process. Four clusters of sampling sites exhibiting similar toxic assemblages were identified. In the first cluster, which comprised 83% of the sampling sites, the risk caused by pesticide mixture toward aquatic species was weak (mean msPAF value for those sites < 0.0036%), while in another cluster the risk was significant (mean msPAF < 1.09%). GIS mapping allowed an interesting spatial pattern of the distribution of sampling sites for each cluster to be highlighted with a significant and highly localized risk in the French department called “Lot et Garonne”. The combined use of the SOM methodology, mixture toxicity modelling and a clear geo-referenced representation of results not only revealed the general state of the Adour-Garonne basin with regard to contamination by pesticides but also enabled to analyze the spatial pattern of toxic mixture assemblage in order to prioritize the locations at risk and to detect the group of compounds causing the greatest risk at the basin scale.     

Accumulation and trophic transfer of organotins in a marine food web from the Danish coastal waters

The presence of organotin compounds, e.g., tributyltin (TBT) and triphenyltin (TPhT) including the di- and monosubstituted breakdown products, was studied in a representative marine food web in order to assess the accumulation potential at different trophic levels in Danish coastal waters. This included samples of two species of seaweed, four species of invertebrates, four species of fish, five species of birds and two species of mammals. All organisms were sampled away from harbour areas and the organotin concentrations found in this study can therefore be considered to reflect a general level in organisms living in Danish coastal waters. All the samples analysed contained organotin compounds. The highest hepatic concentrations of butyltins were found in flounder (60-259 ng g-1 wet weight [ww], as Sn), eider duck (12-202 ng g-1 ww) and harbour porpoise (134-2283 ng g-1 ww). The lowest concentrations were found in seaweed and a plant-feeding bird. TPhT or its degradation products were also found in most of the samples with the highest concentrations in flounder (9.8-74 ng g-1 ww), cod (23-28 ng g-1 ww) and great black-backed gull (19-24 ng g-1 ww). This indicates an input of TPhT in the region, probably from the use as antifouling agent. A high variance in accumulation potential was found between the species, even between species at the same trophic level, which probably reflects the species-specific differences in exposure routes and the capabilities to metabolise and eliminate the organotin compounds. This study gives evidence of the importance of biomagnification of butyltin in harbour porpoises and, to a lesser extent, in fish and birds.     

用于模拟建筑火灾的风险分析模型CUrisk的开发和火灾案例分析

加拿大卡尔顿大学开发了火灾风险计算机模型CUrisk，用以评估四层木结构商品建筑的火灾安全设计。该模型包括系统模型和许多子模型。系统模型用于设定风险分析框架及控制子模型数据流。它还负责计算每个火灾场景的生命危险值。其他子模型包括火灾增长、烟气运动、边界失效火灾蔓延、人员反应和疏散以及建筑造价和经济损失等模型。利用子模型的输出数据，系统模型可计算三个决策参数：对生命的预期风险、对受伤情况的预期风险以及消防成本预期。这些参数是以可能的火灾场景及相关概率为基础的。文章简要介绍了CUrisk模型，并介绍了运用该模型对四层商业建筑所进行的多火灾场景风险分析的结果。     

桥梁顶升施工风险评价

本文通过对桥梁现状的调查,给出了关于桥梁顶升的施工建议。同时在充分了解项目情况和顶升方案之后,结合国内外桥梁顶升相关资料和文献,从顶升方案、顶升设备、自然灾害3个方面进行风险辨识,建立了东江大道公跨铁立交桥桥梁顶升施工风险指标体系,并应用模糊综合评价法计算得出了该项目的风险等级。     

基于模糊综合评价的水资源短缺风险分析

选取风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、重现期和风险度几个评价指标衡量区域水资源短缺的风险程度，研究了水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价方法，以确定区域水资源短缺风险所达到的程度，为区域水资源规划和管理提供了决策依据。     

基于熵权-属性数学的高层建筑火灾风险评估模型

针对高层已建建筑火灾影响因素相互关联和指标属性模糊问题,构建基于熵权-属性数学的高层建筑火灾风险评估模型。从防火能力、灭火能力、安全疏散能力3个方面建立火灾评估体系,重点运用属性测度理论对单指标等级进行划分。以南昌某高层建筑为例,应用构建模型评估其火灾风险等级,评估结果与实际相符合,同时与灰色系统综合评估所得结果基本一致,表明该模型可行且评估结果更客观合理,也为高层建筑火灾风险评估提供了一种新思路。     

The possibilities for the EU-wide use of similar ecological risk-based soil contamination assessment tools

Soil degradation, e.g. due to soil contamination, is a serious problem in Europe. Therefore, the European Commission believes that a comprehensive EU strategy for soil protection is required. With the purpose of supporting the European soil policy, the possibilities for a common approach in the EU-wide use of ecological risks assessment methodologies are explored. For over ten years now, ecological procedures used in different countries have been discussed in international fora. More recently, within the framework of the HERACLES network a review of ecological risk assessment tools was performed, among other things. From this study it can be concluded that the inclusion of ecological risk assessment in soil quality standards shows an increasing interest in many EU Member States. The study also shows that there are many procedures for ecological risk assessment readily available in several EU countries and will be readily available in even more Member States in the nearby future. Besides, this study clearly shows quite some variation in the ecological risk assessment tools and in the resulting soil quality standards in the different countries. Therefore, an effort was made to look for potential harmonisation of these tools within the European Union. Risk assessment tools used in soil quality assessment include both political and scientific elements, which are often interwoven. Insofar differences in the existing tools originate from geographical or cultural differences between Member States or from political choices, harmonisation is not at all regarded an option. Nevertheless, several differences between existing ecological risk assessment tools have been identified, that merely originate from scientific or technical aspects. These tools could be standardized, which means that there could be a uniform tool to be used everywhere throughout the EU. The development of these harmonised risk assessment tools will imply an intensive international cooperation, with the purpose of at least making the existing differences between those tools from the Member States transparent and to investigate the possibilities for coming to similar tools from a scientific/technical perspective.     

建筑安装工程风险评价

结合我国建筑施工应急管理的现状,以建筑安装工程为出发点,建立了基于模糊综合评价理论的建筑安装工程风险评价模型,并运用该模型进行了实例评价,表明该模型能够有效地控制建筑安装过程的风险,为安全施工奠定基础。     

Ecological risk assessment of urban and industrial systems: a review

Numerous ecological risk assessment methodologies have been developed over the last twenty years around the world for evaluating urban and industrial systems and installations, by both the organisations responsible for implementing regulations and the scientific community. Although these methodologies share the general principle underlying their use, they differ widely with respect to the approaches chosen and the resources employed to apply them. Also, they may even have different objectives: prior assessment as part of an impact study before building a new installation, or retrospective assessment, for example, in view to explaining the reasons for an impact recorded or for forecasting additional expected impacts.This article provides a synthesis of the different approaches used around the world for carrying out each of the major steps common to all ecological risk assessment methodologies. The advantages and limitations of these different options are discussed in order to provide elements for formulating any new methodology adapted to a given scenario. To conclude, perspectives for improving the tools required for these methodologies are proposed, and the research works to which priority should be given are identified.     

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of modified pseudo-negative stiffness control of a base-isolated building

Pseudo-negative stiffness (PNS) control of a base-isolated structure, which has a large damping ratio at the isolation level, is used to suppress isolator displacement without large force transmission to the superstructure during extreme earthquakes. However, potential increases in floor acceleration in the superstructure are induced by the large damping ratio, especially for low-to-moderate seismic input level. In consideration of structural functionality and safety, a modified PNS (MPNS) control scheme based on the ‘ideal isolation control principle’ is proposed, considering different seismic intensity levels. The effect of the MPNS control is investigated from three aspects, namely floor acceleration, inter-storey drift and isolator displacement within a probabilistic performance-based seismic engineering framework. Comparisons are made between MPNS control, conventional PNS control and passive damping control. A benchmark base-isolated building is used as a case study. In the seismic performance evaluation, the seismic intensity measures for different response parameters are optimised. An extensive parametric study is also conducted to identify the optimal control parameter to conform to the ideal isolation control principle. Results demonstrated that the MPNS control is an effective solution to the challenging problem of improving structural functionality at low seismic intensity, as well as structural safety from collapse at extreme seismic intensity.