盐城新能源产业现状及发展趋势研究

目前盐城市新能源主要有风能、太阳能、生物质能以及新能源汽车产业。其中,盐城新能源汽车产业正处于起步发展的关键阶段;风能、太阳能和生物质能的开发利用正处于加速发展的起步阶段,尤其是风电装备产业发展迅速。盐城发展新能源产业具有机遇良好、自然资源优越、产业基础雄厚等优势。但同时也存在风电装备产业发展仍相对滞后、风电场土地使用不够集约、太阳能光伏产业发展陷入低潮、新能源汽车推广普及还有难度,缺乏整体规划、研发能力薄弱等制约因素;另外还存在技术障碍、运营成本高、安全与环境问题、盈利困难等产业繁荣背后的隐忧。应努力做好规划和组织引导工作,建立研发投入机制;继续加大扶持力度,改善政策环境和市场条件;注重整机的引进和大企业拉动;加大科技投入,增强研发能力;继续推进新能源汽车产业建设,以求做大做强。     

Economic analysis of power generation from parabolic trough solar thermal plants for the Mediterranean region—A case study for the island of Cyprus

In this work a feasibility study is carried out in order to investigate whether the installation of a parabolic trough solar thermal technology for power generation in the Mediterranean region is economically feasible. The case study takes into account the available solar potential for Cyprus, as well as all available data concerning current renewable energy sources policy of the Cyprus Government, including the relevant feed-in tariff. In order to identify the least cost feasible option for the installation of the parabolic trough solar thermal plant a parametric cost–benefit analysis is carried out by varying parameters, such as, parabolic trough solar thermal plant capacity, parabolic trough solar thermal capital investment, operating hours, carbon dioxide emission trading system price, etc. For all above cases the electricity unit cost or benefit before tax, as well as after tax cash flow, net present value, internal rate of return and payback period are calculated. The results indicate that under certain conditions such projects can be profitable.     

Pricing offshore wind power

Offshore wind offers a very large clean power resource, but electricity from the first US offshore wind contracts is costlier than current regional wholesale electricity prices. To better understand the factors that drive these costs, we develop a pro-forma cash flow model to calculate two results: the levelized cost of energy, and the breakeven price required for financial viability. We then determine input values based on our analysis of capital markets and of 35 operating and planned projects in Europe, China, and the United States. The model is run for a range of inputs appropriate to US policies, electricity markets, and capital markets to assess how changes in policy incentives, project inputs, and financial structure affect the breakeven price of offshore wind power. The model and documentation are made publicly available.     

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable energies and required subsidies in China

The development and utilization of renewable energy (RE), a strategic choice for energy structural adjustment, is an important measure of carbon emissions reduction in China. High cost is a main restriction element for large-scale development of RE, and accurate cost estimation of renewable power generation is urgently necessary. This is the first systemic study on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of RE in China. Results indicate that feed-in-tariff (FIT) of RE should be improved and dynamically adjusted based on the LCOE to provide a better support of the development of RE. The current FIT in China can only cover the LCOE of wind (onshore) and solar photovoltaic energy (PV) at a discount rate of 5%. Subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation, except biomass energy, still need to be increased at higher discount rates. Main conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) Government policy should focus on solving the financing problem of RE projects because fixed capital investment exerts considerable influence over the LCOE; and (2) the problem of high cost could be solved by providing subsidies in the short term and more importantly, by reforming electricity price in the mid-and long-term to make the RE competitive.     

Wind resource assessment and comparative economic analysis using AMOS data on a 30 MW wind farm at Yulchon district in Korea

Detailed feasibility studies are necessary for wind farm development projects because the profitability changes greatly according to wind resource, wind turbine, CAPEX (capital expenduture), OPEX (operation expenditure), SMP (system marginal price), and REC (renewable energy certificate) price. Although measuring wind data over one year in the proposed site is essential, it is a cost-intensive and time-consuming process; hence, in the early stages of development, pre-feasibility studies are conducted using reference wind data from the neighboring areas. In the present study, a pre-feasibility study was conducted in Yulchon district of South Korea to develop a 30-MW wind farm. A wind resource map of Yulchon district was predicted using the AMOS (Aerodome Meteorological Observation System) wind data measured at Yeosu Airport. Three cases of wind farms each with different wind turbines were designed, and comparative economic analysis was carried out. The wind farm designed with SL3000/113 wind turbine recorded the highest profitability with project NPV of 33.62 billion KRW(33.29 million USD, 24.33 million EUR) and project IRR of 9.81%.     

A thorough investigation for development of hydrogen projects from wind energy: A case study

Increasing energy demand has led to a substantial growth in the use of wind energy across the world, which can be attributed to the low initial and running costs and rapid and easy deployment of this technology. The development of hydrogen from wind energy is an excellent way to store the excess wind power produced, as the produced hydrogen can be used not only as clean fuel but also as input for various industries. Considering the good wind potentials of Yazd province, the variety of industries that are active in this area, and the central location of this province in Iran, which gives it ample access to major transport routes and other industrial hubs, hydrogen production from wind power in this province could benefit not only this region but the entire country. Given these considerations, we conducted a technical, economic, and environmental assessment of the potential for wind power generation and hydrogen production in Yazd province. Overall, the assessments showed that the best locations for harvesting wind energy in this province are Bahabad and Halvan stations. For these two stations, it is recommended to use EWT DW 52-900 turbine to take advantage of its higher nominal capacity to achieve higher electricity and hydrogen output and emission reduction. For Abarkoh and Kerit stations, which have a low wind energy potential, it is recommended to use small turbines such as Eovent EVA120 H-Darrieus. Also, economic and technical assessments showed that it is not economically justified to harvest wind energy in Ardakan station. The results of ranking the stations with the Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) techniques showed that Bahabad station was introduced as the best place to produce hydrogen from wind energy.     

大规模非并网风电产业体系研究

大规模非并网风电的应用,是一条探索风电多元化发展之路。建设大规模非并网风电产业体系,是风电多元化发展的重要环节。非并网风电产业体系的构建,是以"非并网风电理论"为依据、以风能富集区的大规模风电场建设和运营为重点,涵盖其前向关联度大的风电设备零部件研发和制造、风机组装、电控系统等产业,后向关联度大的有色金属冶金、盐化工、大规模海水淡化、规模化制氢制氧等高耗能产业,以及侧向关联度大的风机运营维护、风电场观光旅游、风电项目投融资管理、金融保险等产业,构成可涉及三次产业、多方位、多产业链交织的现代综合产业网络体系。     

Parametric assessment of concentrated photovoltaic parks for the Mediterranean region

Solar electricity produced by concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) solar cells is an alternative renewable energy technology for sustainably providing the world's future energy requirements. Although the technology is relatively recent, it could potentially become viable in regions with high direct irradiance levels, such as the Mediterranean region. The main objective of this feasibility study is to investigate whether the installation of CPV parks in the Mediterranean region is economically feasible. The study takes as an example the available solar potential of the island of Cyprus as well as all available data concerning the current renewable energy sources policy of the island. In order to identify the least cost-feasible option for the installation of 1 MW CPV park, a parametric cost–benefit analysis is carried out by varying the CPV park capital investment, the discount rate and the CO₂ emission trading scheme price. The results indicate that in the case where no feed-in tariff scheme is available, the capital expenditure of the CPV park is a critical parameter for the financial viability of the project.     

Analysis of long-range clean energy investment scenarios for Eritrea,East Africa

We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. EE/RE are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation, enhancement of the environment, expansion of energy services, increases in household standard of living, and improvements in health. In this study, we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in EE/RE. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses, and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return, the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply, and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors.     

Economic feasibility of large community feed-in tariff-eligible wind energy production in Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia, Canada's community feed-in tariff (COMFIT) scheme is the world's first feed-in tariff program specifically targeting locally-based renewable energy projects. This study investigated selected turbine capacities to optimize electricity production, based on actual wind profiles for three sites in Nova Scotia, Canada (i.e., Sydney, Caribou Point, and Greenwood). The turbine capacities evaluated are also eligible under the current COMFIT-large scheme in Nova Scotia, including 100 kW, 900 kW and 2.0 MW turbines. A capital budgeting model was developed and then used to evaluate investment decisions on wind power production. Wind duration curves suggest that Caribou Point had the highest average wind speeds but for shorter durations. By comparison, Sydney and Greenwood had lower average wind speeds but with longer durations. Electricity production cost was lowest for the 2.0 MW turbine in Caribou Point ($0.07 per kWh), and highest for the 100 kW turbine located in Greenwood ($0.49 per kWh). The most financially viable wind power project was the 2.0 MW turbine assumed to operate at 80 m hub height in Caribou Point, with NPV=$251,586, and BCR=1.51. Wind power production for the remaining two sites was generally not financially feasible for the turbine capacities considered. The impact of promoting local economic development from wind power projects was higher in a scenario under which wind turbines were clustered at a single site with the highest wind resources than generating a similar level of electricity by distributing the wind turbines across multiple locations.     

Pricing district heating by marginal cost

A vital measure for industries when redirecting the energy systems towards sustainability is conversion from electricity to district heating (DH). This conversion can be achieved for example, by replacing electrical heating with DH and compression cooling with heat-driven absorption cooling. Conversion to DH must, however, always be an economically attractive choice for an industry. In this paper the effects for industries and the local DH supplier are analysed when pricing DH by marginal cost in combination with industrial energy efficiency measures. Energy audits have shown that the analysed industries can reduce their annual electricity use by 30% and increase the use of DH by 56%. When marginal costs are applied as DH tariffs and the industrial energy efficiency measures are implemented, the industrial energy costs can be reduced by 17%. When implementing the industrial energy efficiency measures and also considering a utility investment in the local energy system, the local DH supplier has a potential to reduce the total energy system cost by 1.6 million EUR. Global carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by 25,000 tonnes if the industrial energy efficiency measures are implemented and when coal-condensing power is assumed to be the marginal electricity source.     

A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass

Aalborg Municipality, Denmark, wishes to investigate the possibilities of becoming independent of fossil fuels. This article describes a scenario for supplying Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through a combination of low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass. Of particular focus in the scenario is how low-temperature geothermal heat may be utilised in district heating (DH) systems. The analyses show that it is possible to cover Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through the use of locally available sources in combination with significant electricity savings, heat savings, reductions in industrial fuel use and savings and fuel-substitutions in the transport sector. With biomass resources being finite, the two marginal energy resources in Aalborg are geothermal heat and wind power. If geothermal heat is utilised more, wind power may be limited and vice versa. The system still relies on neighbouring areas as an electricity buffer though.     

Investment preferences for wood-based energy initiatives in the US

The forest sector is poised to become a major supplier of wood-based energy in the US. Prospects for growth in energy demand and higher prices can create opportunities for private investments in renewable energy industries. A conjoint analysis examined individuals’ willingness to invest in wood-based energies following a random utility model. The study design included three investment attributes: annual returns on investment, type of investment, and location of investment. Three ordinal models that also included demographic and attitudinal characteristics indicate that wood-based energy is less preferred among potential investors compared to the stock market and solar/wind renewable energy investments. Expected returns and location of energy investments within the US are also major drivers of investment preferences. Favorable attitudes towards forestry and wood-based energy could enhance prospects for a greater number of potential investors.     

Renewable energy investment opportunities in Mauritius—an investor’s perspective

The main purpose of the paper is to explore the renewable energy investment opportunities in Mauritius. Magnum Power, an engineering firm in India promoting renewable energy technologies, conducted a feasibility study to identify the possibilities of investments on various renewable energy projects in Mauritius. The study analysed the Mauritius energy scenario, the earlier and recent renewable energy projects, the current status of such projects, the barriers for renewable energy developments, and the suitable renewable energy technology for fruitful investment. Based on the study outcome, an investment proposal for a 10 MW wind farm project is presented, which would be a useful guideline for investors looking for investment opportunities in Mauritius.     

Parametric cost–benefit analysis for the installation of photovoltaic parks in the island of Cyprus

In this work a feasibility study is carried out in order to investigate whether the installation of large photovoltaic (PV) parks in Cyprus, in the absence of relevant feed-in tariff or other measures, is economically feasible. The study takes into account the available solar potential of the island of Cyprus as well as all available data concerning current renewable energy sources (RES) policy of the Cyprus Government and the current RES electricity purchasing tariff from Electricity Authority of Cyprus. In order to identify the least-cost feasible option for the installation of 1 MW PV park a parametric cost–benefit analysis is carried out by varying parameters such as PV park orientation, PV park capital investment, carbon dioxide emission trading system price, etc. For all above cases the electricity unit cost or benefit before tax, as well as after-tax cash flow, net present value, internal rate of return and payback period are calculated. The results indicate that capital expenditure of the PV park is a critical parameter for the viability of the project when no feed-in tariff is available.     

北京分布式能源项目规划建设的问题与对策

分布式能源作为清洁能源的高效利用形式,在能源安全、节能减排、电力用户服务方面作用显著。根据首都城市发展、能源需求和环境保护的新要求,聚焦北京分布式能源,归纳各类清洁能源资源的分布特点和分布式能源项目建设现状,分析分布式天然气、分布式风光资源和其他分布式能源项目开发、建设和运行面临的挑战和问题,并从技术、政策、市场、能源管理等方面提出对策和建议,为北京分布式能源项目规划建设提供参考。     

Estimating the electricity prices,generation costs and CO2 emissions of large scale wind energy exports from Ireland to Great Britain

The share of wind generation in the Irish and British electricity markets is set to increase by 2020 due to renewable energy (RE) targets. The United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland have set ambitious targets which require 30% and 40% of electricity demand to come from RE, mainly wind, by 2020, respectively. Ireland has sufficient indigenous onshore wind energy resources to exceed the RE target, while the UK faces uncertainty in achieving its target. A possible solution for the UK is to import RE directly from large scale onshore and offshore wind energy projects in Ireland; this possibility has recently been explored by both governments but is currently on hold. Thus, the aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of large scale wind energy in the Irish and British electricity markets in terms of wholesale system marginal prices, total generation costs and CO₂ emissions. The results indicate when the large scale Irish-based wind energy projects are connected directly to the UK there is a decrease of 0.6% and 2% in the Irish and British wholesale system marginal prices under the UK National Grid slow progression scenario, respectively.     

A geographic analysis of wind turbine placement in Northern California

The development of new wind energy projects requires a significant consideration of land use issues. An analytic framework using a Geographic Information System (GIS) was developed to evaluate site suitability for wind turbines and to predict the locations and extent of land available for feasible wind power development. The framework uses rule-based spatial analysis to evaluate different scenarios. The suitability criteria include physical requirements as well as environmental and human impact factors. By including socio-political concerns, this technique can assist in forecasting the acceptance level of wind farms by the public. The analysis was used to evaluate the nine-county region of the Greater San Francisco Bay Area. The model accurately depicts areas where large-scale wind farms have been developed or proposed. It also shows that there are many locations available in the Bay Area for the placement of smaller-scale wind turbines. The framework has application to other regions where future wind farm development is proposed. This information can be used by energy planners to predict the extent that wind energy can be developed based on land availability and public perception.     

Competitive and risk-adequate auction bids for onshore wind projects in Germany

In recent years, auction mechanisms have gained in significance in the context of renewable energy deployment. An increasing number of countries have adopted auctions for the allocation of permits and financial support for renewable energy projects, thereby increasing competition among project developers. As a result, profit margins have decreased significantly while sensitivity to risks and uncertainty has increased. The adequate quantification of bid prices is a key challenge. We present a modeling approach to determine competitive and risk-adequate auction bids. The contribution of this paper is an improved method for quantifying marginal cost, which is the minimum sales price per unit of electricity through which the investment criteria of all project stakeholders are fulfilled. In our financial model, the risk-adequateness is determined through the investment criteria of equity investors by means of the adjusted present value, and those of debt investors by means of the debt service cover ratio, through Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting marginal cost serve as the starting point for strategic bidding optimization, regardless of the pricing rule in the contemplated auction design. To demonstrate the integrability of our mathematical model with strategic bidding optimization, we check its applicability in a case study, which shows how a German project developer should bid to realize an onshore wind farm project. We show that our model enables the quantification of bid prices that are both competitive and risk-adequate.     

Evaluation of wind energy investment interest and electricity generation cost analysis for Turkey

Turkey has remarkable wind energy potential, but its utilisation rate is very low. However, in 2007, energy investors applied to the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) with 751 wind projects to obtain a 78180.2 MW wind power plant license. This paper first presents an overview of wind energy development in the world and then reviews related situations in Turkey. Second, to motivate the interest in wind energy investment, new wind power plant license applications in Turkey are analysed. Finally, wind electricity generation cost analyses were performed at 14 locations in Turkey. Capacity factors of investigated locations were calculated between 19.7% and 56.8%, and the production cost of electrical energy was between 1.73 and 4.99 $cent/kW h for two different wind shear coefficients.