Sign Invariance in Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Time Series

A goodness-of-fit test for a stationary stochastic process may be based on a functional of the difference between the sample standardized spectral distribution and a hypothesized standardized spectral distribution. Theorems are given to show that under certain conditions the distribution of such a functional based on observations from a process { y_t } indexed by a parameter θ is the same for θ=θ₀ and for θ=−θ₀. The results are illustrated by three examples of time series processes.     

Distributions for residual autocovariances in parsimonious periodic vector autoregressive models with applications

The asymptotic distribution of the residual autocovariance matrices in the class of periodic vector autoregressive time series models with structured parameterization is derived. Diagnostic checking with portmanteau test statistics represents a useful application of the result. Under the assumption that the periodic white noise process of the periodic vector autoregressive time series model is composed of independent random variables, we demonstrate that the finite sample distributions of the Hosking‐Li‐McLeod portmanteau test statistics can be approximated by those of weighted sums of independent chi‐square random variables. The quantiles of the asymptotic distribution can be computed using the Imhof algorithm or other exact methods. Thus, using the (single) chi‐square distribution for these test statistics appears inadequate in general, although it is often recommended in practice for diagnostic methods of that kind. A simulation study provides empirical evidence.     

ASYMPTOTIC EXPANSIONS FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF AN ESTIMATOR IN THE FIRST-ORDER AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS

Abstract. In this paper, two asymptotic expansions for the distribution for an estimator of the parameter in a first-order autoregressive process are derived, according to two situations. Some well known estimators are special cases of the estimator discussed here. The series expansions are carried to terms of order T ^-1.     

Akaike’s information criterion correction for the least‐squares autoregressive spectral estimator

In this article we propose a new correction for the penalty term of the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC), when it is used in the context of order selection for an autoregressive fit of the spectral density of a stationary time series. The classical AIC penalty term may be viewed as an approximation of an appropriate target quantity. Simulations show that the quality of this approximation strongly depends on the type of autoregressive estimator used, as well as on the discrepancy used. Therefore here we consider the least squares autoregressive estimator and the Whittle discrepancy only. In this context we propose a closed formula correction of the AIC penalty term. We also develop asymptotic theory which justifies this proposal: an asymptotically valid second‐order expansion of a stochastic approximation of the target quantity. This expansion assumes a non‐parametric framework: it does not assume gaussianity of the process and only requires its spectral density to be smooth enough. Simulations show that, as compared to previously introduced corrections, this new correction performs similarly to finite sample information criterion, while they both outperform AIC corrected and AIC.     

EFFICIENT NON‐PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE SPECTRAL DENSITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MISSING OBSERVATIONS

The problem of non‐parametric spectral density estimation for discrete‐time series in the presence of missing observations has a long history. In particular, the first consistent estimators of the spectral density have been developed at about the same time as consistent estimators for non‐parametric regression. On the other hand, while for now, the theory of efficient (under the minimax mean integrated squared error criteria) and adaptive nonparametric regression estimation with missing data is well developed, no similar results have been proposed for the spectral density of a time series whose observations are missed according to an unknown stochastic process. This article develops the theory of efficient and adaptive estimation for a class of spectral densities that includes classical causal autoregressive moving‐average time series. The developed theory shows how a missing mechanism affects the estimation and what penalty it imposes on the risk convergence. In particular, given costs of a single observation in time series with and without missing data and a desired accuracy of estimation, the theory allows one to choose the cost‐effective time series. A numerical study confirms the asymptotic theory.     

Improved multivariate portmanteau test

A new portmanteau diagnostic test for vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that is based on the determinant of the standardized multivariate residual autocorrelations is derived. The new test statistic may be considered an extension of the univariate portmanteau test statistic suggested by Peňa and Rodríguez (2002) . The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived as well as a chi‐square approximation. However, the Monte–Carlo test is recommended unless the series is very long. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate the usefulness of this test as well as its improved power performance compared to widely used previous multivariate portmanteau diagnostic check. Two illustrative applications are given.     

Testing for parameter constancy in non‐Gaussian time series

This paper investigates testing for parameter constancy in models for non‐Gaussian time series. Models for discrete valued count time series are investigated as well as more general models with autoregressive conditional expectations. Both sup‐tests and CUSUM procedures are suggested depending on the complexity of the model being used. The asymptotic distribution of the CUSUM test is derived for a general class of conditional autoregressive models.     

On modelling and diagnostic checking of vector periodic autoregressive time series models

Abstract.  Vector periodic autoregressive time series models (PVAR) form an important class of time series for modelling data derived from climatology, hydrology, economics and electrical engineering, among others. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the least squares estimators of the model parameters in PVAR models, allowing the parameters in a given season to satisfy linear constraints. Residual autocorrelations from classical vector autoregressive and moving-average models have been found useful for checking the adequacy of a particular model. In view of this, we obtain the asymptotic distribution of the residual autocovariance matrices in the class of PVAR models, and the asymptotic distribution of the residual autocorrelation matrices is given as a corollary. Portmanteau test statistics designed for diagnosing the adequacy of PVAR models are introduced and we study their asymptotic distributions. The proposed test statistics are illustrated in a small simulation study, and an application with bivariate quarterly West German data is presented.     

SOME PROPERTIES OF AUTOREGRESSIVE ESTIMATES FOR PROCESSES WITH MIXED SPECTRA

Abstract. A formal justification for the use of the method of autoregressive spectral estimation for time series consisting of a sinusoidal signal in additive noise is given in this paper. The analytical properties of the autoregressive approximation to the generalized spectral density of the process are presented, and the operational characteristics of the statistical estimation procedure are discussed. In particular, strong convergence of the autoregressive parameters and the autoregressive transfer function approximation is shown.     

ON THE ESTIMATION OF THE INVERSE CORRELATION FUNCTION

Two new methods for estimating the inverse covariance and inverse correlation functions of a time series are proposed. One of them is based on an orthogonality property, the other is suggested by interpolation considerations. The two methods are shown to be asymptotically equivalent, and their asymptotic distribution is derived. The asymptotic distribution turns out to be the same as that of the autoregressive estimates of the inverse correlations. The problem of choosing an estimation method in practice is discussed.     

The restricted likelihood ratio test at the boundary in autoregressive series

Abstract.  The restricted likelihood ratio test, RLRT, for the autoregressive coefficient in autoregressive models has recently been shown to be second-order pivotal when the autoregressive coefficient is in the interior of the parameter space and so is very well approximated by the     distribution. In this article, the non-standard asymptotic distribution of the RLRT for the unit root boundary value is obtained and is found to be almost identical to that of the     in the right tail. Together, these two results imply that the     distribution approximates the RLRT distribution very well even for near unit root series and transitions smoothly to the unit root distribution.     

SUFFICIENT STATISTICS FOR STATIONARY DISCRETE-TIME GAUSSIAN RANDOM PROCESSES

Abstract. It is known that the distribution of N samples of a stationary Gaussian autoregressive process admits a sufficient statistic whose dimension is independent of N . We show that this property depends not on the absence of spectral zeros in autoregressive models, but rather on the fact that the class of models has a fixed set of spectral zeros.     

Zero‐Modified Geometric INAR(1) Process for Modelling Count Time Series with Deflation or Inflation of Zeros

In this article, we propose a first‐order integer‐valued autoregressive [INAR(1)] process for dealing with count time series with deflation or inflation of zeros. The proposed process has zero‐modified geometric marginals and contains the geometric INAR(1) process as a particular case. The proposed model is also capable of capturing underdispersion and overdispersion, which sometimes are caused by deflation or inflation of zeros. We explore several statistical and mathematical properties of the process, discuss point estimation of the parameters and find the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators. We also propose a test based on our model for checking if the count time series considered is deflated or inflated of zeros. Two empirical illustrations are presented in order to show the potential for practice of our zero‐modified geometric INAR(1) process. This article contains a Supporting Information.     

VALIDITY OF EDGEWORTH EXPANSIONS FOR STATISTICS OF TIME SERIES

Abstract. In this paper, we discuss the validity of the multivariate Edgeworth expansion of distribution functions of statistics which need not be standardized sums of independent and identically distributed vectors. We apply this result to statistics of time series. In particular, we shall give the asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of a parameter of a circular autoregresive moving average process.     

THRESHOLD TIME SERIES MODELS AS MULTIMODAL DISTRIBUTION JUMP PROCESSES

Abstract. Recent contributions by Tong and others in modelling time series exhibiting threshold points have generally been based on approximating non-linear processes by piecewise linear time series models. In this paper we provide an alternative framework in which to model time series displaying jump behaviour by using a multimodal conditional distribution to capture the jump process. Each subordinate model of the distribution is determined by an autoregressive process, and jump behaviour occurs when the relative heights of the modes of the distribution change whilst the threshold points are identified by the antimodes of the distribution. This class of models is referred to as multipredictor autoregressive time series (MATS).     

ASYMPTOTIC SIMULTANEOUS CONFIDENCE BANDS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE SPECTRAL DENSITY

Abstract. On the basis of the asymptotic behaviour of autoregressive parameter estimates, the properties of autoregressive spectral density estimates are deduced. The simultaneous confidence bands for the spectra are derived using Šidák's inequality. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate the quality of the derived confidence bands.     

Bayesian Inference on Periodicities and Component Spectral Structure in Time Series

We detail and illustrate time series analysis and spectral inference in autoregressive models with a focus on the underlying latent structure and time series decompositions. A novel class of priors on parameters of latent components leads to a new class of smoothness priors on autoregressive coefficients, provides for formal inference on model order, including very high order models, and leads to the incorporation of uncertainty about model order into summary inferences. The class of prior models also allows for subsets of unit roots, and hence leads to inference on sustained though stochastically time-varying periodicities in time series. Applications to analysis of the frequency composition of time series, in both time and spectral domains, is illustrated in a study of a time series from astronomy. This analysis demonstrates the impact and utility of the new class of priors in addressing model order uncertainty and in allowing for unit root structure. Time-domain decomposition of a time series into estimated latent components provides an important alternative view of the component spectral characteristics of a series. In addition, our data analysis illustrates the utility of the smoothness prior and allowance for unit root structure in inference about spectral densities. In particular, the framework overcomes supposed problems in spectral estimation with autoregressive models using more traditional model-fitting methods.     

Estimation in Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models

Abstract. We propose the quasi‐maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of an RCA(1) process, i.e. a random coefficient autoregressive time series of order 1. The strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimators are derived under optimal conditions.     

A light‐tailed conditionally heteroscedastic model with applications to river flows

Abstract. A conditionally heteroscedastic model, different from the more commonly used autoregressive moving average–generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARMA‐GARCH) processes, is established and analysed here. The time‐dependent variance of innovations passing through an ARMA filter is conditioned on the lagged values of the generated process, rather than on the lagged innovations, and is defined to be asymptotically proportional to those past values. Designed this way, the model incorporates certain feedback from the modelled process, the innovation is no longer of GARCH type, and all moments of the modelled process are finite provided the same is true for the generating noise. The article gives the condition of stationarity, and proves consistency and asymptotic normality of the Gaussian quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator of the variance parameters, even though the estimated parameters of the linear filter contain an error. An analysis of six diurnal water discharge series observed along Rivers Danube and Tisza in Hungary demonstrates the usefulness of such a model. The effect of lagged river discharge turns out to be highly significant on the variance of innovations, and nonparametric estimation approves its approximate linearity. Simulations from the new model preserve well the probability distribution, the high quantiles, the tail behaviour and the high‐level clustering of the original series, further justifying model choice.     

Diagnostic checking of nonlinear multivariate time series with multivariate arch errors

Multivariate time series with multivariate ARCH errors have been found useful in many applications. In order to check the adequacy of these models, we define the sum of squared (standardized) residual autocorrelations and derive their asymptotic distribution. The results are used to derive several new multivariate portmanteau tests. Simulation results show that the asymptotic standard errors are quite satisfactory compared with empirical standard errors and that the tests have reasonable empirical size and power. The distribution of the standardized residual autocorrelations is also derived.