An improved failure mode and effects analysis method based on uncertainty measure in the evidence theory

mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is an effective tool to assess the risk of a system or process under uncertain environment. However, how to handle the uncertainty in the subjective assessment is an open issue. In this paper, a novel method to deal with the uncertainty coming from subjective assessments of FMEA experts is proposed in the framework of Dempster–Shafer evidence theory. First, the uncertain degree of the assessment is measured by the ambiguity measure. Then, the uncertainty is transformed to the reliability of each FMEA expert and the relative importance of each risk factor. After that, the assessments from FMEA team will be fused with a discounting-based combination rule to address the potential conflict. Moreover, to avoid the situation that different risk priorities of failure modes may have the same ranking based on classical risk priority number method, the gray relational projection method (GRPM) is adopted for ranking risk priorities of failure modes. Finally, an application of the improved FMEA model in sheet steel production process verifies the reliability and validity of the proposed method.     

An Evidential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using Linguistic Terms

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) has been extensively used in reliability engineering domain. Risk priority number (RPN), defined as the product of occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of a failure, is the most important measure used in FMEA for prioritizing risk. In this paper, a new evidential FMEA using linguistic term is presented. First, the linguistic terms have been applied in the form of assessment distribution, which enables the experts to express their assessments in a more realistic way and hence improving the applicability of the FMEA. Second, a novel method to transform the experts' linguistic judgments into basic probability assignments (BPAs) is proposed. Third, the flexibility of assigning a weight to each criterion in the FMEA provides a means of specifically identifying weak areas in the system/component studied. At the same time, the weights can be utilized as the discounting coefficients to address the problem existing in conflicting evidence combination. An example is illustrated to show the practical application of the proposed FMEA methodology in engineering. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Failure mode and effect analysis using multi-linguistic terms and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful technique to identify and quantify potential failures. FMEA determines a potential failure mode by evaluating risk factors. In recent years, there are many works improving FMEA by allowing multiple experts to use linguistic term sets to evaluate risk factors. However, it is important to design a framework that can consider both the weight of risk factors and the weight of the experts. In addition, managing conflicts among experts is also an urgent problem to be addressed. In this paper, we proposed an FMEA model based on multi-granularity linguistic terms and the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory. On the other hand, the weights for both experts and risk factors are taken into consideration. The weights are computed objectively and subjectively to ensure the reasonability. Further, we apply our method to an emergency department case, which shows the effectiveness of the method.     

A rough TOPSIS Approach for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis in Uncertain Environments

This study aims at improving the effectiveness of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) technique. FMEA is a widely used technique for identifying and eliminating known or potential failures from system, design, and process. However, in conventional FMEA, risk factors of Severity (S), Occurrence (O), and Detection difficulty (D) are simply multiplied to obtain a crisp risk priority number without considering the subjectivity and vagueness in decision makers’ judgments. Besides, the weights for risk factors S, O, and D are also ignored. As a result, the effectiveness and accuracy of the FMEA are affected. To solve this problem, a novel FMEA approach for obtaining a more rational rank of failure modes is proposed. Basically, two stages of evaluation process are described: the determination of risk factors’ weights and ranking the risk for the failure modes. A rough group ‘Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution’ (TOPSIS) method is used to evaluate the risk of failure mode. The novel approach integrates the strength of rough set theory in handling vagueness and the merit of TOPSIS in modeling multi‐criteria decision making. Finally, an application in steam valve system is provided to demonstrate the potential of the methodology under vague and subjective environment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk Failure Deployment: A novel integrated tool to prioritize corrective actions in failure mode and effects analysis

In this paper, a novel integrated tool for failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), opportunely named Risk Failure Deployment (RFD), which is able to evaluate the most critical failure modes and provide analyst with a practical and step-by-step guidance by selecting the most effective corrective actions for removal/mitigation process of root causes, is presented. Thanks to the modification of the framework of the Manufacturing cost deployment (MCD) and to its well-structured use of matrices, the novel RFD is able both to handle the dependencies and interactions between different and numerous failures and to evaluate the most critical ones on the basis of the risk priority number (RPN). Thereafter, the logical relationship between root causes and failure modes is assessed. Successively, the prioritization of corrective actions that are the most suitable for root causes is executed using not only the RPN but also other criteria, such as the economic aspect and the ease of implementation, that are unavoidable to execute a rational and effective selection of improvement activities. The effectiveness and usefulness in practice of the original tool for the prioritization of corrective actions to mitigate the risks due to failure modes collected during FMEA are presented in a case study.     

Failure mode and effects analysis by integrating Bayesian fuzzy assessment number and extended gray relational analysis‐technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a prospective risk assessment tool used to identify, assess, and eliminate potential failure modes (FMs) in various industries to improve security and reliability. However, the traditional FMEA method has been criticized for several shortcomings and even the improved FMEA methods based on predefined linguistic terms cannot meet the needs of FMEA team members' diversified opinion expressions. To solve these problems, a novel FMEA method is proposed by integrating Bayesian fuzzy assessment number (BFAN) and extended gray relational analysis‐technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (GRA‐TOPSIS) method. First, the BFANs are used to flexibly describe the risk evaluation results of the identified failure modes. Second, the Hausdorff distance between BFANs is calculated by using the probability density function (PDF). Finally, on the basis of the distance, the extended GRA‐TOPSIS method is applied to prioritize failure modes. A simulation study is presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach in dealing with vague concepts and show its advantages over existing FMEA methods. Furthermore, a real case concerning the risk evaluation of aero‐engine turbine and compressor blades is provided to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method and particularly show the potential of using the BFANs in capturing FMEA team members' diverse opinions.     

New Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: An Evidential Downscaling Method

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is an engineering and management technique, which is widely used to define, identify, and eliminate known or potential failures, problems, errors, and risk from the design, process, service, and so on. In a typical FMEA, the risk evaluation is determined by using the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by multiplying the scores of the occurrence, severity, and detection. However, because of the uncertainty in FMEA, the traditional RPN has been criticized because of several shortcomings. In this paper, an evidential downscaling method for risk evaluation in FMEA is proposed. In FMEA model, we utilize evidential reasoning approach to express the assessment from different experts. Multi‐expert assessments are transformed to a crisp value with weighted average method. Then, Euclidean distance from multi‐scale is applied to construct the basic belief assignments in Dempster–Shafer evidence theory application. According to the proposed method, the number of ratings is decreased from 10 to 3, and the frame of discernment is decreased from 2¹⁰ to 2³, which greatly decreases the computational complexity. Dempster's combination rule is utilized to aggregate the assessment of risk factors. We illustrate a numerical example and use the proposed method to deal with the risk priority evaluation in FMEA. The results and comparison show that the proposed method is more flexible and reasonable for real applications. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk evaluation in failure mode and effects analysis of aircraft turbine rotor blades using Dempster–Shafer evidence theory under uncertainty

Rotor blades are the major components of an aircraft turbine. Their reliability seriously affects the overall aircraft turbine security. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), especially, the risk priority order of failure modes, is essential in the design process. The risk priority number (RPN) has been extensively used to determine the risk priority order of failure modes. When multiple experts give different risk evaluations to one failure mode, which may be imprecise and uncertain, the traditional RPN is not a sufficient tool for risk evaluation. In this paper, the modified Dempster–Shafer (D–S) is adopted to aggregate the different evaluation information by considering multiple experts’ evaluation opinions, failure modes and three risk factors respectively. A simplified discernment frame is proposed according to the practical application. Moreover, the mean value of the new RPN is used to determine the risk priority order of multiple failure modes. Finally, this method is used to deal with the risk priority evaluation of the failure modes of rotor blades of an aircraft turbine under multiple sources of different and uncertain evaluation information. The consequence of this method is rational and efficient.     

Fuzzy TOPSIS approach for failure mode,effects and criticality analysis

In this paper, an alternative multi‐attribute decision‐making approach for prioritizing failures in failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) is presented. The technique is specifically intended to overcome some of the limitations concerning the use of the conventional US MIL‐STD‐1629A method. The approach is based on a fuzzy version of the ‘technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution’ (TOPSIS).The use of fuzzy logic theory allows one to avoid the intrinsic difficulty encountered in assessing ‘crisp’ values in terms of the three FMECA parameters, namely chance of failure, chance of non‐detection, and severity. With the proposed approach, the definition of a knowledge base supported by several qualitative rule bases is no longer required. To solve the fundamental question of ranking the final fuzzy criticality value, a particular method of classification is adopted, allowing a fast and efficient sorting of the final outcome. An application to an important Italian domestic appliance manufacturer and a comparison with conventional FMECA are reported to demonstrate the characteristics of the proposed method. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the fuzzy judgement weights has confirmed that the proposed approach gives a reasonable and robust final priority ranking of the different causes of failure. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modified failure mode and effects analysis using approximate reasoning

The marine industry is recognising the powerful techniques that can be used to perform risk analysis of marine systems. One technique that has been applied in both national and international marine regulations and operations is failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). This risk analysis tool assumes a failure mode, which occurs in a system/component through some failure mechanism; the effect of this failure is then evaluated. A risk ranking is produced in order to prioritise the attention for each of the failure modes identified. The traditional method utilises the risk priority number (RPN) ranking system. This method determines the RPN by finding the multiplication of factor scores. The three factors considered are probability of failure, severity and detectability. Traditional FMEA has been criticised to have several drawbacks. These drawbacks are addressed in this paper. A new proposed approach, which utilises the fuzzy rules base and grey relation theory is presented.     

基于灰色关联分析的故障模式危害性决策方法

 通过考虑产品设计者的设计意图及偏好,计算了各危害性故障模式对危害性理想故障模式的灰关联度,依此对各故障模式危害性进行了排序,克服了传统风险优先数法当RPN值相等或相近时各故障模式危害程度难以比较以及各个风险优先数因子无相对权重的问题.最后以某产品的工艺FMECA分析为例,进行了验证.     

A linguistic risk prioritization approach for failure mode and effects analysis: A case study of medical product development

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a widely used risk management technique for identifying the potential failures from a system, design, or process and determining the most serious ones for risk reduction. Nonetheless, the traditional FMEA method has been criticized for having many deficiencies. Further, in the real world, FMEA team members are usually bounded rationality, and thus, their psychological behaviors should be considered. In response, this study presents a novel risk priority model for FMEA by using interval two‐tuple linguistic variables and an integrated multicriteria decision‐making (MCDM) method. The interval two‐tuple linguistic variables are used to capture FMEA team members' diverse assessments on the risk of failure modes and the weights of risk factors. An integrated MCDM method based on regret theory and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive MCDM) is developed to prioritize failure modes taking experts' psychological behaviors into account. Finally, an illustrative example regarding medical product development is included to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed FMEA. By comparing with other existing methods, the proposed linguistic FMEA approach is shown to be more advantageous in ranking failure modes under the uncertain and complex environment.     

基于动态贝叶斯网络与DS证据理论的轧机颤振监测方法

提出了基于动态贝叶斯网络和DS(Dempster/Shafer)证据理论的轧机颤振实时监测方法,该方法预选多个时域和频域的特征参数表征轧机不同工况下振动信号的不同特征,利用稳定判别率方法筛选敏感度高的特征参数;使用动态贝叶斯网络与DS证据理论实时监测模型建立轧机颤振状态实时监测系统,构建连续的速度载荷时间片,将3个连续的速度载荷时间片作为DS证据理论的证据体,给出了优化基本概率分配的信任度方法,解决了DS证据理论的证据体间冲突问题;最后在轧机实验平台进行实验,诊断结果表明：该方法对轧机颤振不同状态的识别率达到99.05%。     

An improving approach for failure mode and effect analysis under uncertainty environment: A case study of critical function component

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk discerning technique for identifying, evaluating, and reducing possible failures of products or processes. However, the classical FMEA has been criticized for inherent limitations, such as equal weights of risk elements and lack of capability in handling inaccurate information. Although fuzzy-based modified FMEA methods are frequently utilized to handle vagueness of experts' judgments, they still have some drawbacks, for example, requiring extra assumptions, neglecting experts' bounded rationality and psychological effects, lacking consideration of randomness, and only considering three classical risk elements among most of them. Therefore, this study develops an extended risk assessment method to enhance the performance of FMEA, which integrates the superiority of rough number theory in handling subjective and inaccurate information and the advantage of cloud model theory in reflecting the randomness of qualitative evaluations. Moreover, two synthetic weighting methods are developed to determine the weights of risk elements and handle the experts' individual effects, respectively, which consider both subjective and objective aspects. In addition, maintenance is added into the classical risk elements, and then a hierarchical structure containing four risk dimensions is built to evaluate failures' risk levels comprehensively. Finally, an application case to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed FMEA model is presented.     

Consensus building in linguistic failure mode and effect analysis: A perspective based on prospect theory

As one of many scientific and efficient risk assessment approaches, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) has been widely applied across various fields. There are two core issues in the FMEA approach: identifying the latent failure modes of the systems, products, processes and services and the risk assessment and the prioritization of those failure modes. Then, corrective measures must be taken in a timely and accessible manner to prevent the occurrence of failure modes with higher risk levels. In practice, several FMEA members from different fields are usually involved in the FMEA implementation process; the risk assessment information given by them may vary greatly. Therefore, it is necessary to integrate a consensus-building process into FMEA. Meanwhile, the psychological behaviours of FMEA members have had a great impact on the final prioritization of failure modes. Prospect theory is an effective approach for describing individual psychological behaviours. Therefore, this paper presents a novel linguistic FMEA approach to address the consensus issue from the perspective of prospect theory. In the proposed linguistic FMEA approach, a consensus measurement approach based on prospect theory is constructed. Then, a novel feedback adjustment mechanism is designed in which FMEA members can adjust not only their assessment information but also their reference points to achieve an acceptable consensus degree. Eventually, a practical application is used to show the validity and applicability of the proposed linguistic FMEA approach.     

Using a failure modes, effects and diagnostic analysis (FMEDA) to measure diagnostic coverage in programmable electronic systems

One of the key issues in the quantitative evaluation of programmable electronic systems is the diagnostic capability of the equipment. This is measured by a parameter called the Coverage Factor, C. This factor can vary widely. The range of possible values is often the subject of great debate. Within limits, the diagnostic coverage factor can be calculated by knowing which component failure modes are detected by diagnostics. An extension of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) can be used to show this information. This extension, called a Failure Modes, Effects and Diagnostic Analysis can serve as a useful design verification tool as well as a means to provide more precise input to reliability and safety modeling.     

A new risk prioritization model for failure mode and effects analysis

Failure modes and effects analysis is a framework that has been widely used to improve reliability by prioritizing failures modes using the so‐called risk priority number. However, the risk priority number has some problems frequently pointed out in literature, namely its non‐injectivity, non‐surjectivity, and the impossibility to give weights to risk variables. Despite these disadvantages, the risk priority number continues to be widely used due to its higher simplicity when compared with other alternatives found in literature. In this paper, we propose a novel risk prioritization model to overcome the major drawbacks of the risk priority number. The model contains 2 functions, the risk isosurface function that prioritizes 3 risk variables considering their order of importance in a given risk scenario, and the risk prioritization index function which prioritizes 3 risk variables considering their weights. The novelty of the proposed model is its injectivity, surjectivity, and ease of use in failure modes prioritization. The performance of the proposed model was analyzed using some examples typically used to discuss the conventional risk priority number shortcomings. The model was applied to a case study and its performance correlated with other risk prioritization models. Results show that the failure modes prioritization reached with the proposed model agrees with the expectations made for the risk scenario.     

Quality risk analysis in a cGMP environment: multiple models for comprehensive failure mode identification during the computer system lifecycle

Pharmaceutical quality systems use various inputs to ensure product quality and prevent failures that might have patient consequences. These inputs are generally data from failures that have already occurred, for example process deviations or customer complaints. Risk analysis techniques are well-established in certain other industries and have become of interest to pharmaceutical manufacturers because they allow potential quality failures to be predicted and mitigating action taken in advance of their occurring. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one such technique, and in this study it was applied to implement a computerized manufacturing execution system in a pharmaceutical manufacturing environment. After introduction, the system was monitored to detect failures that did occur and these were analyzed to determine why the risk analysis method failed to predict them. Application of FMEA in other industries has identified weaknesses in predicting certain error types, specifically its dependence on other techniques to model risk situations and its poor analysis of non-hardware risks, such as human error, and this was confirmed in this study. Hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM), a technique for identifying risk scenarios in wide-scope analyses, was applied subsequently and identified additional potential failure modes. The technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) has previously been used for the quantitative analysis of human error risk and the event tree from this technique was adapted and identified further human error scenarios. These were input to the FMEA for prioritization and mitigation, thereby strengthening the risk analysis in terms of failure modes considered.     

高速导带式数码印花机故障模式、影响及危害度分析

导带式数码印花机发生故障,一方面影响企业生产进度,另一方面导致坯布打印失败而产生浪费,致使企业财产损失。为了降低机器故障率、减少财产损失,针对高速导带式数码印花机所有可能的故障,应用故障模式、影响及危害度分析（failure mode ,effects and criticality analysis ,FMECA）方法对其进行可靠性分析,找出了其薄弱环节为导带传送装置、喷墨打印装置、喷头清洗装置,得到了故障模式、影响及危害度分析表（FM ECA表）。并以此为基础,对危害度较大的故障模式给出了检修与日常维护建议,为企业制定高速导带式数码印花机的检修、保养策略提供依据,也为高速导带式数码印花机的可靠性设计提供基础,有利于提高其可靠性。