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为克服传统情景意识(SA)可靠性评价方法的不足,建立了更具鲁棒性的SA因果模型。首先,采用组织定向的SA失误分析框架或方法对核电厂人因事件进行分析,获得了132组样本数据。然后,采用相关性分析方法识别SA影响因素的相关关系,并采用因子分析方法识别SA失误发生的场景,包括操纵员的心智水平、工作态度、压力水平及系统状态呈现水平等。最后,基于上述研究结果,建立数据驱动的SA因果模型。结果表明,基于数据驱动的SA因果模型识别了SA失误发生的场景,且考虑了行为形成因子的因果关系有利于提升SA可靠性定量评价的精度。 相似文献
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为了建立数字化核电厂操纵员监视行为可靠性量化模型,在分析电厂数字化主控室设计特征和操纵员监视行为的基础上,结合监视活动过程与规律,将监视行为可靠性划分为屏幕间转移可靠性、屏幕内信息搜索转移可靠性和信息察觉可靠性3部分。基于Senders的监视理论建立了屏幕间转移可靠性计算模型;基于注意力资源分配理论建立了屏幕内信息搜索转移可靠性计算模型;考虑行为形成因子(PSF)的因果关系,基于贝叶斯网络建立了信息察觉可靠性计算模型,并给出了"误安注"场景下监视可靠性计算应用实例。结果表明,建立的监视行为可靠性模型既能客观地描述操纵员监视过程,又能给出其可靠性量化结果,克服了传统方法的不足,提高了人因可靠性分析的精度,为数字化主控室操纵员监视行为可靠性分析与工程应用提供了理论与技术支持。 相似文献
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“在线自诊断”作为数字化仪控系统的重要特征,对核电厂反应堆保护系统(RPS)停堆功能的可靠性分析具有重要作用。通过分析自诊断对人因、定期试验等因素的影响,建立设备级误动模型;以典型RPS TX为例,通过马尔科夫方法建立动态的TX序列级和系统级模块误动模型;利用系统级模块误动模型定量计算TX停堆功能可靠度与自诊断的关系。通过定性分析与定量计算论证了综合考虑自诊断对RPS停堆功能可靠性分析的必要性,为后续国内RPS停堆功能的可靠性评价提供了借鉴。 相似文献
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本文综合考虑微观组织不均匀性等材料的内在分散性,以及载荷历程、工作环境等外在分散性的影响,针对放射性同位素热源(RHU)产品结构特点,选用基于随机有限元法的应力-强度干涉模型,采用解析法与蒙特卡罗法相结合的方式,在有限的试验规模下,定量评价了某型RHU在再入过程中经历一系列环境载荷后的可靠性水平。 利用本文所述方法计算得到:该型RHU在95%置信度下的可靠度置信下限为0.999 989,达到了一般探测器零部件级产品的可靠性评估精度要求,这表明本文所述方法实用、可靠,在RHU的可靠性评估、指导RHU的可靠性设计、降低评估成本方面具有很高的实用价值。 相似文献
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Quantitative dynamic reliability evaluation of AP1000 passive safety systems by using FMEA and GO-FLOW methodology 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Muhammad Hashim Hidekazu Yoshikawa Takeshi Matsuoka 《Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology》2013,50(4):526-542
The passive safety systems utilized in advanced pressurized water reactor (PWR) design such as AP1000 should be more reliable than that of active safety systems of conventional PWR by less possible opportunities of hardware failures and human errors (less human intervention). The objectives of present study are to evaluate the dynamic reliability of AP1000 plant in order to check the effectiveness of passive safety systems by comparing the reliability-related issues with that of active safety systems in the event of the big accidents. How should the dynamic reliability of passive safety systems properly evaluated? And then what will be the comparison of reliability results of AP1000 passive safety systems with the active safety systems of conventional PWR.For this purpose, a single loop model of AP1000 passive core cooling system (PXS) and passive containment cooling system (PCCS) are assumed separately for quantitative reliability evaluation. The transient behaviors of these passive safety systems are taken under the large break loss-of-coolant accident in the cold leg. The analysis is made by utilizing the qualitative method failure mode and effect analysis in order to identify the potential failure mode and success-oriented reliability analysis tool called GO-FLOW for quantitative reliability evaluation. The GO-FLOW analysis has been conducted separately for PXS and PCCS systems under the same accident. The analysis results show that reliability of AP1000 passive safety systems (PXS and PCCS) is increased due to redundancies and diversity of passive safety subsystems and components, and four stages automatic depressurization system is the key subsystem for successful actuation of PXS and PCCS system. The reliability results of PCCS system of AP1000 are more reliable than that of the containment spray system of conventional PWR. And also GO-FLOW method can be utilized for reliability evaluation of passive safety systems. 相似文献