Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.     

Analyzing Water Poverty in Basins

Inadequate provision of water-related services in developing countries continues to undermine strategies for poverty alleviation. The root lies in the inability of policy makers to tackle resource development in a holistic and integrated manner. This requires a multi-faceted approach to combine physical estimates of water availability with the socio-economic drivers of poverty. It is with this in mind that the Water Poverty Index (WPI) was created. However, water resources are dynamic, and the linkages between water scarcity and poverty incorporate complex cause-effect relationships. Water poverty should thus be addressed in a more systemic way. This would allow a comprehensive understanding of the crosscutting nature of water issues and impacts. In this paper, a system approach has been adopted to develop a structured framework for a multi-dimensional evaluation of water poverty in basins. It is an attempt to assess the diverse, interacting components of catchment processes, societal pressures, and policy actions. An enhanced Water Poverty Index (eWPI) has been developed and is proposed in this study. To exemplify the utilisation of the index, and to test its applicability and validity, eWPI has been piloted in a Peruvian watershed as initial case study. Results highlight the likely utility of the tool to identify areas for improvement, and ultimately guide appropriate action towards better service delivery and sustainable management of water resources.     

Impacts of agricultural policy on irrigation water demand: a case study of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's groundwater resources have been heavily over-exploited to achieve food self-sufficiency. The country enacted a new agricultural policy that discourages the cultivation of wheat and encourages that of vegetables and fruits. This has produced significant reductions in irrigation water demand as well as food self-sufficiency. This paper reviews the performance of the Saudi agricultural sector and presents four scenarios forecasting the new policy's long-term impacts on the use of water for agriculture. The findings show that the new policy does not support sustainable utilization of groundwater resources. Additional policy modifications are needed to optimize the combination of import and domestic production of agricultural products based on a sustainable water utilization strategy.     

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012: Assessing the Impacts on Water Resources to Inform Policy Makers

The Climate Change Act 2008 requires a series of assessments of the risks of climate for the UK, under both current conditions and over the long term, to 2100. This paper describes the research completed on the impacts of climate change on the UK water sector, involving stakeholder engagement and a mix of literature review, expert elicitation and broad-scale quantitative analysis to develop ten climate change risk metrics. These include measures of the demand for water, impacts on supply, water quality and asset performance using future scenarios based on the UK Climate Projections 2009 and future population projections from the Office for National Statistics. The analysis has resulted in a number of key findings that can help to inform policy in different parts of the UK. Overall the assessment showed that there is likely to be increased pressure on water resources in the UK. These pressures need to be considered in long term plans so that the needs of different users are met without impacting on the environment.     

Water Resource Models in the Mekong Basin: A Review

Development of the water resources of the Mekong Basin is the subject of intense debate both within the Mekong region and internationally. Water resources modelling is playing an increasingly important role in the debate, with significant effort in building integrated modelling platforms to describe the hydrological, ecological, social and economic impacts of water resource development. In the hydrological domain, a comprehensive set of models has been effective in building understanding of the system, and in identifying and describing the issues and trade-offs involved in basin-scale water planning. In the ecological and social domains, quantitative modelling has not progressed very far; geo-spatial analysis and qualitative frameworks remain the most commonly used tools. Economic models have been used to assess the costs and benefits of water resources development and to describe the trade-offs between different sectors and users. These analyses are likely to play an important role in the policy and planning debate, but are hampered by uncertainties in valuation of ecosystem services. Future efforts should focus on optimising the use of existing model platforms for the Mekong, including structured comparison of multiple hydrological models to quantify errors and identify an optimum set of modelling tools for different applications. A comprehensive research effort is needed to incorporate groundwater into hydrological models for regional planning. Options for social impact assessment should be reassessed before major investments are made in complex modelling platforms, and participatory social survey methods evaluated as part of an integrated assessment framework.     

Enhancing Management Capabilities of the Water Sector in India

The policy review process of the Indian water sector is examined by considering the present and the likely future changes in the sector, and in its legal and institutional framework. The need to achieve institutional consolidation and internalization of various concerns, to involve users and to create interdisciplinaryand autonomous institutes is brought out. The emphasis is on the priorities required for human resources development and particularly for attitudinal changes for this purpose. A review of the literature and experience indicates that WALMIs established in India are able to achieve changes but need support and coordination.     

Adaptation for river basins: connecting policy goals to the water resources system.

This paper focuses on a methodology called 'generic adaptation methodology for river basins' (AMR) that provides guidance to water managers seeking: (1) potential adaptation measures to climate change and climate variability, (2) measuring impacts, and (3) evaluating adaptations. The methodology uses basic elements addressed in existing adaptation research and is designed for a participatory setting involving various stakeholders. In AMR, the water resources system is seen as an economic asset that provides 'goods and services' for both humans and ecosystems. The innovative aspect of AMR is that it distinguishes impacts to water management objectives and impacts to the physical state of water resources in a river basin in a relatively simple iterative approach. Both impact types are quantified using indicators. The framework and results are demonstrated for a case study in the Walawe basin (Sri Lanka). It is explained that actually implementing adaptations in policy making can be difficult in trans-boundary river basins as each riparian country has its own policy objectives and hence ways of dealing with adaptation.     

The Cauvery river basin in southern India: major challenges and possible solutions in the 21st century

India is facing major challenges in its water resources management (WRM) sector. Water shortages are attributed to issues such as an explosion in population, rapid urbanization and industrialization, environmental degradation and inefficient water use, all aggravated by changing climate and its impacts on demand, supply and water quality. This paper focuses on the contemporary and future situation in the Cauvery river basin in Southern India, shared by different states, predominantly Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. As water issues largely fall under the authority of the states, inter-state water disputes have a long tradition in the Cauvery river basin. Future changes in precipitation during the two monsoon seasons will only increase these tensions. Both states depend on the arrival of these monsoon rains to water their crops and to replenish the groundwater. The paper identifies the major challenges and general possible solutions for sustainable WRM within the river basin. It synthesises the relevant literature, describes practices that should be addressed in the scope of integrated WRM--including water availability increase and demand management--and stresses the need for further quantitative analyses.     

Integrated Water Resources Management in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Abstract

The Uzbek socio-economic structure is characterized by the transition from a centrally-planned to a market-orientated economy, with a shifting from agricultural production to industrial development. However, the agricultural sector continues to play a significant role in a general economy of the country. The major water sector strategy is to decrease the dependence of agricultural production on climate by introducing advanced irrigation techniques and water saving methods to achieve future sustainable socio-economic development and environmental protection. Water management policy should be flexible enough to adapt to new demands. The regulation of consumption through demand management tools, such as appropriate pricing policies, has recently received greater attention in Uzbekistan. The main thesis of this paper is that allocation of water resources cannot be separated from ecological and economic considerations. The establishment of development objectives and the identification of constraints are also discussed. In the coming years, special attention will need to be paid to the control of water pollution and land salinization, water resources conservation, and acknowledging that actions to increase water productivity are as important as finding additional sources of water.     

Climate change impacts on natural resources and communities: A geospatial approach for management

Climate change causes environmental depletion, with threats to the global economy. The health and productivity of ecosystems underpin agriculture, with stable ecosystems being the foundation for economic livelihoods and food security. This study proposes adaptation measures, using geospatial technology, for conserving natural resources and improving livelihoods of the local community from climate change scenarios. Planning, policy decisions and resultant programmes are required for natural resource management, which must be based on broad citizen participation and the engagement of rural communities. The suggested adaptation measures will help the planning system to regulate development of natural resources and the socio‐economic environment. The major natural resources in the environment are land and water, both of which can be severely degraded by human interventions, as well as climate change. Various thematic maps are prepared with the use of geospatial technology, in order to be helpful for site‐suitability analysis directed to the preparation of land and water management action plans for socio‐economic development. The study area is a micro‐watershed of the catchment of Ansupa Lake in the Cuttack District of Odisha, India. To reduce climate change impacts on natural resources and economic livelihoods, some adaptation measures have been proposed (e.g., 68.9 ha for afforestation.; 13.94 ha for gap plantations and agro‐horticulture; 389.62 ha for farm ponds and renovation of existing ponds for pisciculture and duckery activities, etc.; 11.33 ha for land management, along with five bore wells, eight dug wells, 51 LBS/check dams, and four WHSs, etc., for water management for sustainable use).     

Economic and Social Adaptations to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Egypt

Literature is em erging on the adaptation of water resource systems to climate change (Stakhiv, 1995; Strzepek & Sm ith, 1995). These adaptations are generally discussed at either the sectoral or at the micro-economic level. However, little has been said about the macro-economic adaptation to shifts in water resources due to climate change. This lack of discussion is primarily due to the fact that very few countries have been able to make a com prehensive national assessment of climate change im pacts on water resources at the same scale as a macro-economic modelling analysis. W here macro-economic m odelling has been done, the water resource systems are highly regional and difficult to aggregate to a single national im pact. W here homogenous water resources systems exist, m acro-econom ic impact modelling has not incorporated water resources. This paper examines the macro-economic adaptations to climate change im pacts on national water resources. Because of the problems listed above, a 'laboratory' country was chosen. Egypt has a single water resource- the Nile- and a substantial portion of Egypt's economic activity is related to this river. Changes in Nile discharges can be directly linked to macro-economic accoun ts, yet obviously more strongly linked to the agricultural sector. For this reason, a macro-economic m odel has been used which contains a disaggregated agricultural sector and a highly aggregated non-agricultural sector. A discussion of technical adaptations to climate change-induced reductions in Nile flows is presented. W hile these technical adaptations of the N ile are important, the macro-economic impacts of decreases or increases in Nile River discharge are shown to be minor compared with fu ture socioeconomic development and domestic policy strategies. The paper concludes with a discussion of anticipatory econom ic and policy adaptations that appear to be more significant than technical adaptations for Egypt.     

西部水资源开发若干战略问题探讨

介绍中国西部地区的水土资源情况 ,认为西部开发的成败在水 .探讨西部水资源开发的三个主要问题 :①西部水资源开发必须实行可持续发展战略 ;②借鉴国内外的经验教训 ,事先研究保护水资源对策 ,重视与水有关的战略问题的研究 ,重视研究水资源开发对生态环境的影响 ,做好西部水资源开发规划 ;③利用高新科技对水资源进行有效管理 .     

Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater with Inter-Basin Transfer Approach: Case Study Piranshahr

Disregarding water as a key sustainable development has led to the water crisis in Iran. This problem is the biggest factor for marginalizing the planning and long-term management of water. The sustainable development policies in water resources management of IRAN require consideration of the different aspects of management that each of them demands the scientific integrated programs. Optimal use of inter-basin surface and groundwater resources and transfer of surplus water to adjacent basins are important from different aspects. The purpose of this study is to develop an efficient optimization model based on inter-basin water resources and restoration of outer-basin water resources. In the proposed model the three different objectives are as follow supplying inter-basin water demand, reducing the amount of water output of the boundary of IRAN and increasing water transfer to adjacent basins (Urmia Lake basin) are considered. In this model, water allocation is done based on consumption and resources priorities and groundwater table level constraints. In this research, the non-dominate sorting genetic algorithm is used for performing the developed model regarding the complexity and nonlinearity of the objectives and the decision variables. The optimal allocation of each water resources and water transfer to adjacent basin can be determined by using of proposed model. Optimal allocation policy presented based on optimal value and planning horizon. The results show that we can transfer considerable volume of water resources within the basin for restoration the outside basin and prevent the great flow of water by the border rivers applying the optimal operation policy.     

长江三角洲地区气候变化背景下城市化发展与水安全问题

全球变暖等气候变化背景下,城市化的高速发展给长江三角洲地区水文和水资源带来了较大的影响,该区域的水安全问题成为人们关注的热点。通过对该地区水文水资源变化气候背景的分析,选择区域内的典型城市,以遥感和GIS作支持,开展以城市化发展为标志的下垫面变化对降雨、径流及暴雨洪水的影响研究,分析了城市化发展对河网水系与水环境的影响。在此基础上,从保证城市水安全的角度,对水资源持续利用与优化配置进行了分析和探讨,以寻求地区城市化发展下的水资源利用与保护的对策措施,从而为保障地区水安全以及经济持续发展提供支持。     

长江水资源保护面临的挑战与前景

The major faced problems at present in Yangtze river basin are: ① uneffective control in river water pollution threatens seriously the safety of drinking water; ② shrinkage of lake area and serious eutrophication; ③ soil-water losses degraded the ecological environment of the basin; ④ the impact of TGP and S-N water transfer project on water environment of the basin. In the light of above-mentioned problems, water resources utilization strategy must be adjusted and the sustainable social and economic development should be supported by sustainable water resources utilization, and it is necessary to take the following countermeasures: ① establishing overall flood control and disaster relief system; ② developing high water use efficiency agriculture; ③ taking "giving priority to water saving on the basis of pollution control" as urban water resources utilization strategy; ④ implementing comprehensive pollution control strategy with sources control as main point; ⑤ guaranteing water demand of the ecological environment; ⑥implementing the strategy of maintaining water resources supply and demand balance on the basis of water demand management; ⑦ studying countermeasures for the ecological and environmental impacts of trans-basin water transfer and western China devolopment. The key of realization of sustainable water resources utilization is to reform management and investment mechanism of water resources and water price policy. It is the only way to solve the water resources problems in Yangtze river basin as well as the whole China.     

Environmental Changes and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in the Himalayan Headwaters of India

The nature of terrain imposes severe limitations on the scale of productive activities as well as on the efficiency of infrastructural facilities in the Indian Himalaya. As a result, biomass based subsistence agriculture constitutes the main source of rural livelihood. During the recent past, rural resource development practices have changed in response to population increase and the resultant increased demand on natural resources as well as increasing socio-economic and political marginalization. This has brought about rapid environmental changes which have reduced the groundwater recharge in the region. About 36% of springs have dried, heads of perennial streams have dried and water discharge in springs and streams has decreased considerably resulting into severe crisis of water for drinking as well as irrigation during the past 20 years. In addition to assessing the impact of recent environmental changes on water resources, this paper attempts to develop a community and user oriented framework for the sustainable development of water resources with a case illustration of Kosi headwater in Kumaon Lesser Himalaya, India.     

辽宁省水资源可持续利用对策研究

辽宁是我国严重缺水的地区,水资源可持续开发利用对促进经济社会发展具有重要意义。通过对辽宁省水资源现状及开发利用分析,从加快经济社会发展角度出发,研究提出水资源可持续利用对策措施和政策建议,实现以水资源可持续利用保障经济社会可持续发展。     

基于Galápagos群岛水资源特点的规划思路

Galápagos群岛远离厄瓜多尔本土,其特殊的地理环境和海洋气候条件,造成水资源的不均衡,亦影响当地经济社会的发展,故需对当地的水资源进行合理规划,以满足长远发展对水资源的需求。在对Galápagos群岛中有人类居住的4座岛屿的水资源及其开发利用现状充分调研的基础上,对岛屿水资源供需情况进行了全面分析,理清了4座岛屿水资源配置的思路,构建了水资源配置格局,进而提出水资源开发利用措施。     

以BOT方式进行水资源开发的政策分析

针对我国水资源开发中存在财政限制、政策壁垒、对专业技术要求高和投资巨大等问题,以节约和高效开发我国水资源为目的,结合BOT方式具有的新型融资手段和建设方式等优点,分析了以BOT方式进行水资源开发的可行性和必要性,提出我国应完善相关法律建设,对BOT水利项目实行“以水养水”、“以电养电”,以及在税收和贷款上予以优惠等措施,并依据具体情况予以适当政府补贴,以推进BOT方式在农村水资源开发中的广泛运用,带动农村经济发展和推进西部大开发。     

Water Variability and the Economic Impacts on Small-Scale Farmers. A Farm Risk-Based Integrated Modelling Approach

Strengthening the planning of hydrological resources to optimize the use of water in agriculture is a key adaptation measure of the Chilean agricultural sector to cope with future climate change. To address this challenge, decision-makers call for tools capable of representing farmers’ behaviours under the likely stresses generated by future climate conditions. In this context, of special concern are the effects of water variability on small-scale farmers, who commonly operate with narrow profit margins and who lack access to financial resources and technological knowledge. This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of changes in water availability on small-scale agriculture. We provide a hydro-economic modelling framework that captures the socio-economic effects of water shocks on smallholders in the Vergara River Basin, Chile. This approach links a farm risk-based economic optimization model to a hydrologic simulation model adjusted for the basin. Our results indicate that at the aggregated level, there will be minor economic impacts of climate change on the basin’s small-scale agriculture, with small decreases in both expected utility and wealth. However, large differences in the economic impacts of wealthy and poor small-scale farmers are found. Changes in water availability, reduce the options of land reallocation to increase farmer’s expected utility, being the poor small-scale farmers the most negatively affected.