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1.
Binglong Wang Yanpeng Cai Xin’An Yin Qian Tan Yan Hao 《Water Resources Management》2017,31(5):1665-1694
An integrated approach of system dynamics (SD), orthogonal experimental design (OED) and inexact optimization modeling was proposed for water resources management under uncertainty. The developed method adopted a combination of SD and OED to identify key scenarios within multiple factors, through which interval solutions for water demands could be obtained as input data for consequential optimization modeling. Also, optimal schemes could be obtained in the combination of inexact two-stage stochastic programming and credibility constrained programming. The developed method was applied to a real-world case study for supporting allocation of multiple-source water resources to multiple users in Dalian city within a multi-year context. The results indicated that a lower credibility-satisfaction level would generate higher allocation efficiency, a higher system benefit and a lower system violation risk. The developed model could successfully reflect and address the variety of uncertainties through provision of credibility levels, which corresponds to the decision makers’ preference regarding the tradeoffs between system benefits and violation risks. 相似文献
2.
A Conditional Value-at-Risk Based Inexact Water Allocation Model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) based inexact two-stage stochastic programming (CITSP) model was developed in this study
for supporting water resources allocation problems under uncertainty. A CITSP model was formulated through incorporating a
CVaR constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to deal with uncertainties
expressed as not only probability distributions but also discrete intervals. The measure of risks about the second-stage penalty
cost was incorporated into the model, such that the trade-off between system economy and extreme expected loss could be analyzed.
The developed model was applied to a water resources allocation problem involving a reservoir and three competing water users.
The results indicated that the CITSP model performed better than the ITSP model in its capability of reflecting the economic
loss from extreme events. Also, it could generate interval solutions within which the decision alternatives could be selected
from a flexible decision space. Overall, the CITSP model was useful for reflecting the decision maker’s attitude toward risk
aversion and could help seek cost-effective water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties. 相似文献
3.
In this study, an interactive multi-stage stochastic fuzzy programming (IMSFP) approach has been developed through incorporating
an interactive fuzzy resolution (IFR) method within an inexact multi-stage stochastic programming framework. IMSFP can deal
with dual uncertainties expressed as fuzzy boundary intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand
sides of constraints. Moreover, IMSFP is capable of reflecting dynamics of uncertainties and the related decision processes
through constructing a set of representative scenarios within a multi-stage context. A management problem in terms of water
resources allocation has been studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that a set
of solutions under different feasibility degrees (i.e., risk of constraint violation) has been generated for planning the
water resources allocation. They can not only help quantify the relationship between the objective-function value and the
risk of violating the constraints, but also enable decision makers (DMs) to identify, in an interactive way, a desired compromise
between two factors in conflict: satisfaction degree of the goal and feasibility degree of constraints. Besides, a number
of decision alternatives have been generated under different policies for water resources management, which permits in-depth
analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised water-allocation
targets are violated, and thus help DMs to identify desired water-allocation schemes under uncertainty. 相似文献
4.
In this study, an inventory-theory-based inexact chance-constrained multi-stage stochastic programming (IB-ICCMSP) model under multi-uncertainties is developed. IB-ICCMSP integrates inventory theory into an inexact chance-constrained multi-stage stochastic optimization framework. This method can not only effectively address system multiple uncertainties (e.g. discrete intervals and probability density functions) and dynamic features, but also provide water transferring and allocating schemes among multiple stages. The developed model is applied to irrigation water allocation optimization system in Zhangye City, Gansu province, China. Based on the runoff simulation prediction of Yingluo Gorge and water supply–demand balance analysis of the 12 irrigation areas in Zhangye City, different optimal irrigation water measures are generated under different flow levels and different probabilities in the planning year. The obtained results are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the existing irrigation patterns and identifying desired water-allocation plans for irrigation under multi-uncertainties. 相似文献
5.
This paper presents the development and the first application of a superiority–inferiority-based inexact fuzzy-stochastic quadratic programming (SI-IFSQP) approach for sustainable water supply under multiple uncertainties. SI-IFSQP improves conventional nonlinear programming by tackling multiple uncertainties within an individual parameter; SI-IFSQP is also superior to existing inexact methods due to its reflection of economies of scale and reduction of computational requirements. An interactive solution algorithm with high computational efficiency was also proposed. The application of SI-IFSQP to long-term planning of a multi-source multi-sector water supply system demonstrated its applicability. The close reflection of system complexities, such as multiple uncertainties, scale economies and dynamic parameters, could enhance the robustness of the optimization process as well as the acceptability of obtained results. Corresponding to varied system conditions and decision priorities, the interval solutions from SI-IFSQP could help generate a series of long-term water supply strategies under a number of economic, environmental, ecological, and water-security targets. 相似文献
6.
An Inexact Two-stage Fuzzy-stochastic Programming Model for Water Resources Management 总被引:6,自引:4,他引:6
An inexact two-stage fuzzy-stochastic programming (ITFSP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty.
Fuzzy sets theory is introduced to represent various punishment policies under different water availability conditions. As
an extension of conventional two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) method, two special characteristics of the proposed approach
make it unique compared with existing approaches. One is it could handle flexible penalty rates, which are much reasonable
for both of the authorities and users, and have seldom been considered in the TSP framework. The other is uncertain information
expressed as discrete intervals and probability distribution functions can be effectively reflected in the optimization processes
and solutions. After formulating the model, a hypothetical case is employed for demonstrating its applicability under two
scenarios, where the inflow is divided into four and eight intervals, respectively. The results indicate that reasonable solutions
have been obtained. They provide desired allocation patterns with maximized system benefit under two feasibility levels. The
solutions present as stable intervals with different risk levels in violating the water demands, and can be used for generating
decision alternatives. Comparisons of the solution from the ITFSP with that from the ITSP (inexact two-stage stochastic programming)
and TSP approach are also undertaken. It shows that the ITFSP could produce more system benefit than existing methods and
deal with flexible penalty policies for better water management and utilization. 相似文献
7.
Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Nonlinear Programming for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Over the past decades, controversial and conflict-laden water allocation issues among competing interests have raised increasing
concerns. In this research, an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic nonlinear programming (ITNP) method is developed for
supporting decisions of water-resources allocation within a multi-reservoir system. The ITNP can handle uncertainties expressed
as both probability distributions and discrete intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that
are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised allocation targets are violated. Moreover,
it can deal with nonlinearities in the objective function such that the economies-of-scale effects in the stochastic program
can be quantified. The proposed method is applied to a case study of water-resources allocation within a multi-user, multi-region
and multi-reservoir context for demonstrating its applicability. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been
generated, which present as combined interval and distributional information. They provide desired water allocation plans
with a maximized economic benefit and a minimized system-disruption risk. The results also demonstrate that a proper policy
for water allocation can help not only mitigate the penalty due to insufficient supply but also reduce the waste of water
resources. 相似文献
8.
Abstract An interval-fuzzy two-stage quadratic programming (IFTSQP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The methodincorporates techniques of interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming, and fuzzy quadratic programming within a general optimization framework to tackle multiple uncertainties presented as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. In the model formulation, multiple control variables are adopted to handle independent uncertainties in the model's right-hand sides; fuzzy quadratic terms are used in the objective function to minimize the variation in satisfaction degrees among the constraints. Moreover, the method can support the analysis of policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. The developed method is then applied to a case study of water resources management planning. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained. They can help provide bases for identifying desired water-allocation plans with a maximized system benefit and a minimized constraint-violation risk. 相似文献
9.
An Inexact Two-Stage Water Resources Allocation Model for Sustainable Development and Management Under Uncertainty 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this study, an inexact two-stage water resources allocation (ITWR) model is put forward for supporting sustainable development and management of water resources in Sanjiang Plain, China, which is in such a situation, with multi-water source, multi-water supply subarea, multi-water user and multi-planning goal. The costs of net system, water supply and recourse are analyzed. The developed ITWR model, which shows a strong ability in tacking with various uncertain factors in probability distributions and discrete interval numbers, mixes the techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) within a general optimization framework. And it also has formed an effective link in such a conflict between the policy scenarios and the associated various levels of economic penalties, when the pre-allocation targets of water resources are violated. Based on this model, a series of scenarios under different levels of pre-allocation water is done and different degrees of water surplus and shortage are obtained correspondingly. The results indicate that the reasonable distribution plans with maximum system benefit and minimum system-failure risk have been generated. And these results are valuable for saving water resources to realize its sustainable development and mitigating the penalty to gain economic benefits maximum, and thus some desired results are provided for decision makers in tackling with a complex and uncertain water-resource system. 相似文献
10.
In this study, a factorial-based fuzzy-stochastic dynamic programming (FFS-DP) method is developed for tackling multiple uncertainties including fuzziness, randomness and their interaction in reservoir operation management (ROM). FFS-DP is framed on the integration of stochastic dynamic programming, fuzzy-Markov chain, vertex analysis and factorial analysis techniques. It can not only deal with the conventional optimization problem for reflecting dynamic and uncertain features in ROM, but also obtain detailed effects of uncertain parameters and their interactions on the system performance. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system, where the local authority is in charge of allocating relative scant water to the downstream municipality. The results obtained can help the local authority identify desired water release policies under uncertain system conditions. Besides, the results simultaneously indicate that significant factors and their interactions can be identified in ROM. Moreover, the results can be further analyzed for generating optimal parameter inputs to obtain maximized system benefits. 相似文献
11.
Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, a modeling framework by combining system dynamic (SD) model and optimal allocation model was developed to study water resources vulnerability and optimal water use structure, and the framework was applied in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin, northwest of China. The SD model could describe the dynamical change of water resources vulnerability by integrating water resources with socio-economic effect. The sensitivity analysis of SD model was then conducted to design appropriate scenarios for finding out the optimal development pattern, and based on which, an integrated water-saving scenario with lower water resources vulnerability was identified for optimization modeling. Then, an inexact fuzzy-parameter two-stage programming (IFTSP) model was developed and applied to optimize water use structure among industries under uncertainties. This study addresses the water resources vulnerability analysis in considering both water resources system and socio-economic system. Water resources vulnerability analysis was combined with optimization model to make adaptive water resources management plans. And the optimal allocation schemes under lower water resources vulnerability are more advantageous for regional sustainable development. 相似文献
12.
An Inexact Chance-constrained Quadratic Programming Model for Stream Water Quality Management 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
Water quality management is complicated with a variety of uncertainties and nonlinearities. This leads to difficulties in
formulating and solving the resulting inexact nonlinear optimization problems. In this study, an inexact chance-constrained
quadratic programming (ICCQP) model was developed for stream water quality management. A multi-segment stream water quality
(MSWQ) simulation model was provided for establishing the relationship between environmental responses and pollution-control
actions. The relationship was described by transformation matrices and vectors that could be used directly in a multi-point-source
waste reduction (MWR) optimization model as water-quality constraints. The interval quadratic polynomials were employed to
reflect the nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with wastewater treatment costs. Uncertainties associated with the
water-quality parameters were projected into the transformation matrices and vectors through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainties
derived from water quality standards were characterized as random variables with normal probability distributions. The proposed
ICCQP model was applied to a water quality management problem in the Changsha section of the Xiangjiang River in China. The
results demonstrated that the proposed optimization model could effectively communicate uncertainties into the optimization
process, and generate inexact solutions containing a spectrum of wastewater treatment options. Decision alternatives could
then be obtained by adjusting different combinations of the decision variables within their solution intervals. Solutions
from the ICCQP model could be used to analyze tradeoffs between the wastewater treatment cost and system-failure risk due
to inherent uncertainties. The results are valuable for supporting decision makers in seeking cost-effective water management
strategies. 相似文献
13.
Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Semi-infinite Programming: Application to Water Resources Management under Uncertainty 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this study, an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic semi-infinite programming (ITSSP) method was developed for water
resources management under uncertainty. As a new extension of mathematical programming methods, the developed ITSSP approach
has advantages in uncertainty reflection and policy analysis. In order to better account for uncertainties, the ITSSP approach
is expressed with discrete intervals, functional intervals and probability density functions. The ITSSP method integrates
the two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), interval programming (IP) and semi-infinite programming (SIP) within a general
optimization framework. The ITSSP has an infinite number of constraints because it uses functional intervals with time (t) being an independent variable. The different t values within the range [0, 90] lead to different constraints. At same time, ITSSP also includes probability distribution
information. The ITSSP method can incorporate pre-defined water resource management policies directly into its optimization
process to analyze various policy scenarios having different economic penalties when the promised amounts are not delivered.
The model is applied to a water resource management system with three users and four periods (corresponding to winter, spring,
summer and fall, respectively). Solutions of the ITSSP model provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both
the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results indicate that reasonable interval solutions were generated for objective
function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision alternatives can be generated under different levels of
stream flow. The obtained solutions are useful for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between environmental,
economic and system reliability criteria. 相似文献
14.
15.
Water Resources Management - In this research, a large-scale inexact optimization method was developed for the conjunctive use management of a watershed-lake water distribution system. The modeling... 相似文献
16.
考虑到不确定条件下漳卫南灌区农业水资源管理的复杂性,为了解决当灌区水资源用户供水目标不能满足需求时的水资源优化配置问题,结合LFP模型与TSP模型的优点,开发了一种分式两阶段随机规划模型(FTSP)。选择漳卫南灌区最大控制性工程岳城水库的两个大型供水灌区作为验证实例,模型应用结果表明,不同决策情景所对应的经济效益和缺水风险不同,最优决策实现了经济效益和缺水风险之间的平衡;不同径流水平下,各用户的正常灌溉面积会发生相应变化,高径流水平时所有用户均能得到正常灌溉。 相似文献
17.
In this article, linear programming and fuzzy optimization models are developed for planning and management of available land-water-crop system of Mahanadi-Kathajodi delta in eastern India. The models are used to optimize the economic return, production and labour utilization, and to search the related cropping patterns and intensities with specified land, water, fertilizer and labour availability, and water use pattern constraints. Due to extreme backwardness of the study area, it has been decided to keep all the three objectives of the linear programming models at the same priority level to obtain the compromised solution in a fuzzy environment that incorporates the imprecision in fuzzy goals and fuzzy constraints. These non-structural models facilitate the conjunctive use of available surface water and groundwater resources. A comparative evaluation along with the benefit-cost ratios of the existing and proposed farming systems is also presented. 相似文献
18.
本文发展了一个确定了给水管网道道直径,水泵扬程,水塔尺寸的最优设计非线性规划模型,提出了将管网不等式约束非线性规划转换为无约束规划问题的变量代换法,求解目标函数广义简约梯度的广义节点法,并采用PRP共轭梯度法求解管网非线性规划问题,计算结果表明模型的求解速度比现有同类型非线性管网模型快数十倍。占用计算机内存较少,程序较简单,适用于各种给水管网。 相似文献
19.
A Hybrid Dynamic Dual Interval Programming for Irrigation Water Allocation under Uncertainty 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Lei Jin Guohe Huang Yurui Fan Xianghui Nie Guanhui Cheng 《Water Resources Management》2012,26(5):1183-1200
Along with the economic development in Canada, the shortage of irrigation water has become a serious concern (Bouwer 1993; Hennessy 1993). In this study, a model of Dynamic Dual Interval Programming (DDIP) is developed and applied to the irrigation water allocation
systems with uncertainty. DDIP method improves the existing dynamics interval programming by explicitly addressing the system
uncertainties with a dual interval that had higher system reliability. The solution of DDIP is computationally effective,
and its decision variables are incorporated into the solutions for final decision. In order to obtain the optimal allocation
schemes in a dynamic process, the developed DDIP was applied to an irrigation water system. The results from this case study
revealed that optimal solution can be obtained through the DDIP approach from the agriculture water management activities
for feasible decisions. These decisions reflect the high uncertainty of the information in the boundaries of dual intervals.
The solution presents a maximum benefit under limited yearly uncertain natural resources. Furthermore, the information obtained
though this model may help the authority to make optimal decisions and to reduce the risk for uncertain situations. 相似文献
20.
In response to a range of contemporary urban water challenges, there is an increasingly urgent need to change the way water is used in our cities. In Australia, the 'Security through Diversity' policy has been introduced in a number of cities to help facilitate a shift towards sustainable urban water management. This qualitative case study research investigated the interpretation and implementation of this radically different urban water policy approach across the case study cities of Perth and Melbourne. To focus the research and allow for more reliable comparative analysis across the cities, the introduction of desalination and permanent water saving rules as new initiatives in these cities were of particular interest. The research results are drawn from a synthesis of over 65 semi-structured interviews with senior urban water practitioners in the case study cities, and a content analysis of key policy and guidance documents, as well as organizational literature where available. The key finding of this research was that because of an entrenched technological paradigm, and the difficulty in breaking this pattern of lock-in, practitioners are currently interpreting and implementing Security through Diversity in a way that does not fully realise the potential of this strategy. More specifically the interview results revealed that the urban water practitioner community believed that the introduction of seawater desalination would discharge their city's responsibility for achieving Security through Diversity and that demand management initiatives, while nice, are not essential to this policy position. Interestingly, despite context evidence to the contrary, the practitioners believed supply and demand planning to be an integrated practice within their city. The paper concludes by offering some recommendations to facilitate a more comprehensive implementation of Security through Diversity and outlines areas for possible future research. 相似文献