Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Nonlinear Programming for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

Over the past decades, controversial and conflict-laden water allocation issues among competing interests have raised increasing concerns. In this research, an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic nonlinear programming (ITNP) method is developed for supporting decisions of water-resources allocation within a multi-reservoir system. The ITNP can handle uncertainties expressed as both probability distributions and discrete intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised allocation targets are violated. Moreover, it can deal with nonlinearities in the objective function such that the economies-of-scale effects in the stochastic program can be quantified. The proposed method is applied to a case study of water-resources allocation within a multi-user, multi-region and multi-reservoir context for demonstrating its applicability. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated, which present as combined interval and distributional information. They provide desired water allocation plans with a maximized economic benefit and a minimized system-disruption risk. The results also demonstrate that a proper policy for water allocation can help not only mitigate the penalty due to insufficient supply but also reduce the waste of water resources.     

Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Semi-infinite Programming: Application to Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic semi-infinite programming (ITSSP) method was developed for water resources management under uncertainty. As a new extension of mathematical programming methods, the developed ITSSP approach has advantages in uncertainty reflection and policy analysis. In order to better account for uncertainties, the ITSSP approach is expressed with discrete intervals, functional intervals and probability density functions. The ITSSP method integrates the two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), interval programming (IP) and semi-infinite programming (SIP) within a general optimization framework. The ITSSP has an infinite number of constraints because it uses functional intervals with time (t) being an independent variable. The different t values within the range [0, 90] lead to different constraints. At same time, ITSSP also includes probability distribution information. The ITSSP method can incorporate pre-defined water resource management policies directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios having different economic penalties when the promised amounts are not delivered. The model is applied to a water resource management system with three users and four periods (corresponding to winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively). Solutions of the ITSSP model provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results indicate that reasonable interval solutions were generated for objective function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision alternatives can be generated under different levels of stream flow. The obtained solutions are useful for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between environmental, economic and system reliability criteria.     

IFTSQP: An Inexact Optimization Model for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

Abstract

An interval-fuzzy two-stage quadratic programming (IFTSQP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The methodincorporates techniques of interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming, and fuzzy quadratic programming within a general optimization framework to tackle multiple uncertainties presented as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. In the model formulation, multiple control variables are adopted to handle independent uncertainties in the model's right-hand sides; fuzzy quadratic terms are used in the objective function to minimize the variation in satisfaction degrees among the constraints. Moreover, the method can support the analysis of policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. The developed method is then applied to a case study of water resources management planning. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained. They can help provide bases for identifying desired water-allocation plans with a maximized system benefit and a minimized constraint-violation risk.     

An Inexact Two-stage Fuzzy-stochastic Programming Model for Water Resources Management

An inexact two-stage fuzzy-stochastic programming (ITFSP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. Fuzzy sets theory is introduced to represent various punishment policies under different water availability conditions. As an extension of conventional two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) method, two special characteristics of the proposed approach make it unique compared with existing approaches. One is it could handle flexible penalty rates, which are much reasonable for both of the authorities and users, and have seldom been considered in the TSP framework. The other is uncertain information expressed as discrete intervals and probability distribution functions can be effectively reflected in the optimization processes and solutions. After formulating the model, a hypothetical case is employed for demonstrating its applicability under two scenarios, where the inflow is divided into four and eight intervals, respectively. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained. They provide desired allocation patterns with maximized system benefit under two feasibility levels. The solutions present as stable intervals with different risk levels in violating the water demands, and can be used for generating decision alternatives. Comparisons of the solution from the ITFSP with that from the ITSP (inexact two-stage stochastic programming) and TSP approach are also undertaken. It shows that the ITFSP could produce more system benefit than existing methods and deal with flexible penalty policies for better water management and utilization.     

规划水资源论证技术要求探讨——以深圳石岩总部经济园区规划为例

2010年,水利部启动了规划水资源论证的试点工作并出台了试行技术要求。规划水资源论证把水资源管理的源头从建设项目向前推进至规划阶段,体现了"从源头和过程控制"的理念。以深圳石岩总部经济园区改造专项规划水资源论证为例,对园区规划水资源论证的内容、方法和要求进行了实例探讨,为规划水资源论证的编制提供参考。     

Decision-making in Water Management under Uncertainty

Decision-making in water management requires the delivery of accurate scientific information. However, the task is challenging under the situation where a large amount of uncertainty exists in the available information (e.g., model outputs). This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the ranking of options in water management. Different methods for ranking the management options under uncertainty are reviewed and they account for only partial uncertainty information in model outputs. To consider the full uncertainty information, a new ranking procedure is proposed in this paper, which is capable of providing more information to decision makers and at the same time taking their opinions on uncertainty into consideration. The ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management options, on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an unacceptable ranking and the mean difference in model outputs in pair-wise comparison. An application example is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed ranking approach. Furthermore, the sensitivity of management option ranking to different ranking methods and to model uncertainty is also investigated.     

A Stochastic Non-linear Programming Model for a Multi-period Water Resource Allocation with Multiple Objectives

A rapid increase in demand and severe droughts in recent years has increased the pressure on water supplies throughout most parts of Australia. This has resulted in the need for tools to allocate limited water across users in different regions, and explore scenarios so as to achieve economic, social and environmental benefits. A major challenge in water resource allocation is dealing with the uncertainty in the system, particularly with respect to reservoir inflow. Stochastic non-linear programming is applied to water resource allocation to accommodate this uncertainty across the time periods of the planning horizon. A large range of solutions is produced representing the distributions of uncertainty in reservoir inflow. These solutions are used in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the trade-off in amounts of water allocated versus risk of not achieving minimal reservoir levels. The methodology is applied to a case study in South East Queensland in Australia, a region which is currently facing a severe water shortage over the next 3 years. A new water supply initiative that the Queensland State Government is considering to overcome the water crisis is assessed using the methodology.     

海河流域水资源规划工作思路及初步成果

海河流域水资源短缺,影响着整个流域社会经济的发展。为了更好地研究海河流域水资源的可持续利用,海河水利委员会组织的海河流域水资源规划工作已全面展开。目前,对流域的水资源量、水质状况、供用水现状等进行了调查分析,并取得了初步的成果。     

Water resource projects evaluation and ranking under economic uncertainty

The uncertainties of economic factors in the evaluation of a water resource project are receiving more and more attention from researchers and policymakers. This paper proposes a probabilistic procedure based on the concept of stochastic dominance to evaluate the economic merit of water resources projects whose project benefits and costs are subject to uncertainty. An example using the Cache la Poudre River Basin development in Colorado illustrates the procedure.     

Water Resources Development and Management A Challenging Task for Botswana

Abstract

Since Botswana is part of drought prone region of Southern Africa due to its semi-arid climate, conservation and careful management of the water resources is a matter of necessity and great importance. Hence, the focus on water resources management and, in particular, integrated management has become critical over the past decade. This paper addresses the problem of water resources development with a particular reference to Botswana, which is a semi-desert region. The vagaries of climate, unpredictable, patchy rainfall, and even more erratic run-off events all make hydrological modeling difficult. High rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration losses present an additional challenge to water resources planners. Lack of good dam sites is another problem in Botswana's ancient, flat, and eroded landscape. This paper describes the present and future water demands of this country and a suggestion is made to improve the situation of water shortage. The Botswana National Master Plan has been developed to meet the challenge. The aim is to integrate the expanding water supply system of eastern Botswana, through a north-south carrier pipeline. A brief presentation and discussion of this system is given along with other challenges faced by the water resources planners, such as conjunctive use of the groundwater and surface water resources     

GIS and Multi-Criteria Evaluation: Robust Tools for Integrated Water Resources Management

Abstract

Integrated water resources planning and management are considered very complex issues. These issues are usually addressed through the multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary and hierarchal decomposition approaches. In general, integrated resource management indicates the consideration of water, social, socio-economic, economic and environmental issues. The current study aims at merging the GIS and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques for the integrated water resource management of a cropped area. An area of about 120,000 Hectares located in the Northern Nile River Delta area with a coastal zone on the Mediterranean was selected and GIS was applied to represent the area's different environment, social, economic, and water factors. Different randomization cropping pattern distribution scenarios were proposed. Through the merging of GIS and MCE approaches, three scenarios were run and evaluated at three different levels: farm, canal catchment area and whole area. This merging resulted in a very powerful tool for the evaluation of different plans. The merging of GIS and MCE really facilitated the decision making process for these types of integrated water management problems.     

黄河流域水资源规划优化模型

黄河流域水资源规划优化模型是一个以流域节点图为基础，以线性规划技术核心，数据驱动的通用流域水资源规划模型。它考虑了地表水地下水联合运用，梯级电站补偿调节，变动灌溉定额和防凌，渔业，环境用水等因素，以农业灌溉净效益与水力发电效益之和最大为目标，在全流域内优化水资源分配。本模型通用灵活，功能效全，是一个非常实用的分析和决策辅助工具。     

基于ET的水资源与水环境综合规划研究（Ⅲ）- 应用实例

本文将基于ET的区域水资源与水环境综合规划理论与方法应用于我国天津市,按照“制定目标ET-方案设置-情景模拟-方案评价-方案推荐”的规划方法,提出区域基于ET的水资源和水环境综合规划方案;依据构建的区域水资源与水环境综合模拟模型、量化准则及方案优选方法,得到推荐方案及区域的地表水、地下水、生态、环境、国民经济、出境水以及ET等七大总量控制指标,提出区域基于ET的水资源与水环境综合规划措施和实施方案。结果表明,基于ET的区域水资源与水环境综合规划理论与方法能够合理的控制区域水资源节约、地下水超采、环境污染等问题,支撑天津市社会经济和生态环境的可持续发展。     

对流域综合管理和水资源综合管理概念的探讨

流域综合管理是系统解决流域性问题的重要手段．但是目前国内外对流域综合管理的概念和内涵尚未达成共识。流域综合管理和水资源综合管理是两个容易让人混淆的概念,通过这两个术语的提出背景和国内外学者对其认识的分析,可以得出它们之间既有区别,又有联系,都为解决流域问题提供了有效的方法和手段。当前,应结合我国流域实际,探索适合我国国情的流域综合管理模式,推进我国流域综合管理的进程,促进流域的可持续发展。     

Optimal Water Resources Management: Case of Lower Litani River, Lebanon

The pressures of human population and patterns of development frequently jeopardize the integrity of river systems worldwide. An integrated approach to water resources management is essential, particularly in developing countries. This study presents the results of the water resources optimization conducted for the Lower Litani River Basin in Lebanon. The overall aim of the project is to develop, test, and critically evaluate an innovative approach to water resources management in the Mediterranean region. The method explores the ways in which multiple environmental, economic, and social benefits can be achieved through integrated management of water resources. The Water Resources Model was utilized to assess the efficiency of the baseline model scenario and for the optimization process of the different scenarios of the Litani Lower Basin. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis was applied in order to derive the objectives and constraints. Results revealed that the potential retained scenarios aim at decreasing water consumption and demand, losses, and return flow. These scenarios mainly include the shift to drip irrigation, awareness campaigns, and losses control in domestic supply pipes. Other retained scenarios having a higher shortfall rely on the use of the Channel concrete lining to decrease losses and return flow, in addition to the awareness campaigns in both domestic and irrigation sectors, and less consumptive/more efficient irrigation methods such as sprinkler and drip irrigation at variable application percentages. Hence, most of the interventions or measures proposed are generally not costly and can be implemented.     

水资源系统分析法在水资源优化配置中的应用

探讨了水资源系统分析法的步骤和数学模型,并以线性规划模型为例建立了水资源优化配置的数学模型,对水资源优化配置提供了一定的依据。     

Development of Data and Information Centre System to Improve Water Resources Management in Indonesia

Most provinces in Indonesia will be facing water scarcity problems in the next decades due to increasing water demands resulting from population growth, urbanization and economic and industrial developments. As a consequence, they will also be facing a number of problems with regards water resource management, such as a lack of data and information needed to evaluate the real status of water resources, the unsystematic development of relevant infrastructure and economic instruments, inadequate human resources for the operation and maintenance of water resources, and a lack of interest in improving research and development activities. This paper examines the application of data and information management for improved water resources management in Indonesia through “one door data service system” linked among the related institutions from different sectors and levels both at the central and regional government agencies. One of the key solutions to help solve water resource problems would therefore be to obtain supporting data and information by developing an information system and water resources data centre (WRDC). Rapid developments in information and communication technology (ICT) could be used to support data communication and management requests in order to build capacity of the water resources sector, and as a prerequisite for an integrated water resources management program. Improved efficiency and effectiveness could be achieved by making relevant data and information available, as well by establishing a communication system among related institutions. Further, provinces should also prioritize developing human and social capital through education, service delivery and career development, as well as training for water resources development and management. Data and information such as the hydrological and water quality data, information of water resources potential, irrigation areas, population and economic growth as well as the others related data need to store in both the tabular and spatial formats. The water resources data management and warehouse system is a web-enabled application that permits spatial data to be stored with tabular data in a standard database management system. This system permits a dynamic generation of output from the tabular and spatial data and enables users to generate answers to their queries online, rather than simply presenting static maps and tables from the database. The WRDC applications were developed and chosen by gathering the ideas suggested by users at the ministerial, provincial and river basin levels. Within the resulting inventory system, information was grouped into irrigation scheme system; water resources potential; natural disaster; hydrological data and station networks; and other information. For the users at the ministerial level access the system by using local area network (LAN) connections and other users at the provincial and river basin levels or elsewhere in the world can use the internet for connections and regular browser software for system operation.     

Modeling of Water Resources Allocation and Water Quality Management for Supporting Regional Sustainability under Uncertainty in an Arid Region

In this study, a scenario-based interval-stochastic fraticle optimization with Laplace criterion (SISFL) method is developed for sustainable water resources allocation and water quality management (WAQM) under multiple uncertainties. SISFL can tackle uncertainties presented as interval parameters and probability distributions; meanwhile, it can also quantify artificial fuzziness such as risk-averse attitude in a decision-making issue. Besides, it can reflect random scenario occurrence under the supposition of no data available. The developed method is applied to a real case of water resources allocation and water quality management in the Kaidu-kongque River Basin, where encounter serve water deficit and water quality degradation simultaneously in Northwest China. Results of water allocation pattern, pollution mitigation scheme, and system benefit under various scenarios are analyzed. The tradeoff between economic activity and water-environment protection with interval necessity levels and Laplace criterions can support policymakers generating an effective and robust manner associated with risk control for WAQM under multiple uncertainties. These discoveries avail local policymakers gain insight into the capacity planning of water-environment to satisfy the basin’s integrity of socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability.     

A Comparison of Modelling Systems for the Development and Revision of Water Resources Management Plans

In this paper, two modelling systems used for the simulation of water resources management are compared. These modelling systems can be used in the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive or to perform any other kind of integrated assessment with regard to water resources management. In such investigations the use of models is inevitable, as integrated water resources management demands the survey of large areas as well as the inclusion of the different functions of the water cycle and water utilisation processes. Water quantity data provides important input for hydro-chemical, hydro-ecological or hydro-economic models. If no significant water resources management activities are realised in the basin under study, these data can be provided by simple rainfall-runoff models. If significant water resources management activities are realised or planned, the effects of these water resources management activities must be taken into consideration. Then, however, the use of water resources management models becomes necessary. Two such modelling systems, WRAP and WBalMo, are compared. Both have been designed for the development and revision of water resources management plans. Due to different approaches regarding the modelling routines the models lead to different results in the calculation of water quantities. By tracking the simulation algorithms, an understanding of the detected differences becomes possible. By adapting the spatial configuration of the modelled system, equivalent results can be obtained.