A Pace of Its Own: The Demography of Ageing in Sri Lanka

The process of demographic ageing in Sri Lanka is striking in comparison to the experience of other countries in South Asia, and in comparison to many developing countries more generally. The proportion of the population older than 60 years in Sri Lanka was much higher—almost double—than in any other country in the region in 2000, and by 2030, it is expected that nearly one of every five Sri Lankans will be elderly. The rapid ageing of the Sri Lankan population is contributing to the emergence of several policy issues that will undoubtedly become more acute in the years to come. The primary aim of this paper is to examine the magnitude, characteristics and determinants of demographic ageing in Sri Lanka, a country whose demography has received little international attention, and discuss some of the implications of this ageing process for selected policy issues.     

Does information and communications technology affect economic growth? Empirical evidence from SAARC countries

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) on economic growth (gross domestic product) for member countries of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) using annual data for the period 1990–2014. The study has employed augmented Cobb–Douglas production function by incorporating ICT along with capital and labor. We have taken teledensity (number of fixed and mobile phones per 10,000 people) as the proxy of ICT. This study has included only four SAARC countries (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan) due to data constraints. Our findings reveal a positive and statistically significant effect of ICT on economic growth using panel data techniques. However, the impact of ICT on economic growth is highest for India followed by Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan respectively. This study has crucial policy implications for SAARC countries as they have started giving due significance to the issues related to ICT these years.     

The growth and development of e-commerce: an analysis of the electronic signature law of Sri Lanka

A significant event in the legal regulation of e-commerce in Sri Lanka was the enactment of the Electronic Transactions Act in 2006. The objective of this important Act is to facilitate commercial and financial activity by removing barriers to electronic transactions and by preserving the right of individuals to engage in freedom of contract unimpeded by government regulation and bureaucracy. This objective is secured in the legislation by ensuring that transactions conducted electronically are regarded as of equal validity or legitimacy as normal paper (or documentary) transactions. Undoubtedly, the Electronic Transactions Act is a significant and quite innovative piece of legislation - one that that has considerable potential to both stimulate and further enhance economic development, as well as commercial and free enterprise activity, in a developing country like Sri Lanka. Before any form of private-sector activity or financial activity can be conducted, the necessary institutional and legal underpinnings must be established. This Act appears to be the first step towards providing the foundations of a flourishing free-market economy in Sri Lanka.

In light of these issues, this article provides an overview of the fundamental provisions of the Act and outlines its significance for the country's emerging e-commerce activity. It draws attention to certain inadequacies of the Act and briefly focuses attention on the impact of the new e-commerce laws on the economic success of Sri Lanka. This article also briefly explores other associated and parallel legislative developments in Asia that aim to promote e-commerce in the region with a view to drawing out common and emergent themes in relation to the regulation of e-commerce in developing nations.     

Combining dynamic economic analysis and environmental impact modelling: Addressing uncertainty and complexity of agricultural development

In this study, the impacts of different agricultural policies on agricultural production and nutrient leaching from agricultural land are evaluated using the economic DREMFIA agricultural sector model and the field-scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. DREMFIA simulates competitive markets of agricultural products and includes an evolutionary scheme of technology diffusion which explicitly considers farm investments, evolving farm size structure and technological change. The technology diffusion model allows self-enforcing patterns of technical change driven by the spread of information and farmers' knowledge related to different technological alternatives. Hence, the long-term changes in agriculture due to policy changes may be essentially larger than those predicted by traditional static equilibrium models. Larger potential for changes in production provides a larger perspective for evaluation of environmental impacts. The modelled variables in ICECREAM are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface run-off and percolation. The considered environmental effect is eutrophication of surface waters. In this paper, the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case-study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use.     

Systems capacity expansion planning: Novel approach for environmental and energy policy change analysis

Planning for power systems generation expansion follows environmental policies incorporating technologies based on renewables to reduce CO₂ emissions. These policies are susceptible to unpredictable changes, given dynamic economic and political contexts. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in energy policies, motivated by different environmental objectives. The analysis is done through a novel approach coupling Dynamic Programming and Multi-objective programming to generate several energy policy scenarios and their trade-offs, representing plausible policy changes in the different stages of the planning horizon. The results indicate a clear Pareto front and that energy policy scenarios with abrupt changes should be avoided in favor of scenarios with gradual changes. “Greener” energy policies in a given planning stage are not necessarily the best ones considering the full planning horizon, considering the unfolding impacts of current decisions into the future. The approach is useful in improving planners' future vision from myopic into a perspicacious one.     

Fine-resolution remote-sensing and modelling of Himalayan catchment sustainability

A number of studies have reported on environmental degradation in the Nepal Himalaya as a result of large-scale deforestation and the associated agricultural extension. In contrast to many previous regional scale studies, we consider land cover and its environmental impact on an individual catchment-scale, using fine-resolution Quickbird data and a soil erosion model. First, using a detailed land cover map generated from Quickbird imagery, we establish basic relationships between land cover, dwelling density and topographic variability, which exist in a typical mid-elevation Nepalese catchment, the Pokhare Khola. These data suggest a strongly subsistence type of household economy based predominantly on terraced arable farming. We demonstrate using multitemporal vegetation indices that this farmland has existed in the region since the late 1980s, and that widespread deforestation has not taken place since then, possibly as a result of specific forest conservation policies of the government coupled with efforts by local communities. Further, through the use of soil erosion modelling we demonstrate the role that the terraced farming practices can play in reducing runoff and hence soil nutrient loss, thereby enabling restoration of vegetation in the previously deforested land terrains. Finally, by combining this information with regional land cover data, we show that the findings of this research can be scaled up to draw conclusions about environmental degradation across the Nepal Himalayan region.     

Cover photograph Use of LANDSAT-RBV data for the assessment of flooded areas for rice production forecasting in West Africa

Land degradation is difficult to assess in arid rangelands because of short-term variations in rainfall, landscape diversity and the problems of sampling very large areas. This paper shows how vegetation cover index values derived from multi-temporal remotely-sensed data can be used in association with spatial models of grazing impact on landscapes to identify grazing-induced land degradation. The method assumes that grazing effects decrease with distance from water and that temporary grazing impacts largely disappear as vegetation responds to major rainfalls. Grazing gradients (i.e., systematic changes in vegetation cover with distance from water) which remain indicate long term damage. Simple grazing gradients involve changes in average cover with distance from water and include normal, inverse and composite types, complex grazing gradients show systematic changes in cover variance with distance from water and develop where soil and runoff are being redistributed. Although complex grazing gradients may involve little change in total cover with distance from water, they are symptomatic of a reduction in the proportion of forage present. The ability to recognize grazing gradients may greatly simplify range assessment procedures and may also improve satellite image based procedures for determining erosion risk.     

Land-cover changes and potential impacts on soil erosion in the Nan watershed,Thailand

The expansion of built environments and agriculture land in the Nan watershed, Thailand, to support the rapid increase of the national population has resulted in deforestation, thus affecting the ecological balance. This deforestation, especially in high mountainous areas, has led to serious environmental degradation. Recent reports reveal an increasing soil-erosion problem in the watershed. This study analyses land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes and their potential impact on soil erosion during a study period between 1995 and 2005. The 1995, 2000 and 2005 Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images were acquired and classified using hybrid classification methods. Cross-tabulation methods and the Markov Chain model were then used to analyse current and future LC changes. A soil risk-assessment model was formulated to identify potential risk areas of soil erosion. The LULC data show that the watershed was predominately covered by 40% closed-canopy forests, 25% paddy fields and 10% croplands. There was a major conversion of forests to agricultural lands and urban areas. The predictive model shows that forests are most likely to convert into paddy fields and croplands. The northern and eastern regions of the watershed have a high potential risk of soil erosion. These findings can be a basis for the design and implementation of sustainable resource management plans and geographically targeted conservation measures.     

A model-based integrated assessment of land degradation by water erosion in a valuable Spanish rangeland

This paper presents an integrated assessment model aimed at evaluating land degradation by water erosion in dehesa rangelands in the Iberian Peninsula. The model is built following the system dynamics approach. The degradation risk is likened to the probability of losing a certain amount of soil within a number of years, as estimated over a great number of stochastic simulations. Complementary indicators are the average times needed to lose different amounts of soil over the simulations. A group of exogenous factors are ranked in order of importance. These factors are mainly climatic and economic and potentially affect soil erosion. Calibration is carried out for a typical dehesa defined over 22 working units selected from 10 representative farms distributed throughout the Spanish region of Extremadura. The degradation risk turns out to be moderate. The importance of climatic factors on soil erosion considerably exceeds that of those linked to human activities.     

Examining the relationships among e-government maturity,corruption, economic prosperity and environmental degradation: A cross-country analysis

There is growing interest in the role and contribution of e-government to the levels of corruption, economic prosperity and environmental degradation of nation states. In this paper, we use publicly available archival data to explore the relationships among them. Results substantiate a significant relationship between (1) e-government maturity and corruption; and (2) e-government maturity, economic prosperity and environmental degradation through the mediating effects of corruption. The findings suggest that while e-government maturity did not contribute to economic prosperity and environmental degradation, its value could be realized indirectly via its impacts on corruption. Our findings contribute to the theoretical discourse on e-government impact by identifying the role of e-government in a country and provide indications to practice on enhancing its economic prosperity and lowering its environmental degradation by managing the levels of e-government maturity and corruption.     

Computer and informatics issues,and policy for third world development

This paper explains why the microelectronics and computer revolution has become a subject of extraordinary importance for the developing countries, because of the rapidity of technological change and the resulting global impacts on production and consumption. It stresses that a computer and informatics strategy must be developed in the national context, rather than piecemeal, and offers a framework for policy analysis in relation to fundamental national objectives. A basic decisionmaking model for assessing the demand for computer services is developed. The paper identifies the principal technical, national, and international issues arising from the information revolution, discusses the various policy options available, and describes how a practical computer policy might be formulated and implemented in a developing country. A case study of Sri Lanka is presented, involving the successful application of this approach to computer and informatics policy analysis and implementation. Finally, the emerging consensus in the informatics and international development community is outlined, to set up a new International Centre for Computers and Informatics (ICCI), based on the network principle, that will serve the urgent needs of the developing countries in this area.     

A synoptic picture of the impact of the 26th December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on the coast of Sri Lanka

A numerical simulation of the 26th December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami for the entire coast of Sri Lanka is presented. The simulation approach is based on a fully nonlinear Boussinesq tsunami propagation model and a robust coseismic source. The simulation is first confronted to available measured wave height. The agreement between observations and the predicted wave heights allowed a reasonable validation of the simulation. As a result a synoptic picture of the tsunami impact is provided over the entire coast of Sri Lanka. It is found that amplification due to shoaling applies mainly in the Eastern and Southern coast because, here, the wave is propagating across the sea floor slope, while propagating along the slope for the Western coast. Spots of high waves are due to wave focusing in some coastal areas while local submarine canyons in other areas inhibit the wave amplification.     

Economics in integrated water management

Integrated basin scale analysis that accurately accounts for the impacts of proposed policies on the environment and society's economic welfare can comprehensively and consistently inform water resource policies. Cost benefit analysis (CBA) has considerable potential to support water decisions by consistently appraising proposals in terms of society's total environmental and economic impact in monetary terms. However, the difficulty of correctly applying CBA to environmental programs with complex physical and economic interactions weakens policymakers’ confidence in comprehensive economic assessments at the basin scale. This paper describes and illustrates a method by which costs and benefits can be systematically integrated into an integrated physical, institutional and economic analysis for a river basin. A simple hydroeconomic model is presented. Its size is small enough to build, understand, and interpret with paper and pencil. But its structure is sufficiently flexible to permit expansion for comprehensive policy design that rests on a foundation of a basin's hydrology, institutional constraints, and economic relations. The use of cost benefit analysis to support environmental policy will always be limited by ethical questions on the distribution of benefits and costs among sectors, income groups, locations, and generations. Nevertheless, hydroeconomic models offer a potential resource to efficiently and consistently integrate hydrologic, economic, and institutional impacts of policy proposals to support basin scale cost-benefit environmental assessments.     

Soil loss predictions with three erosion simulation models

Quantification of soil loss is one of the greatest challenges in natural resources and environmental planning. Computer simulation models are becoming increasingly popular in predicting soil loss for various land use and management practices. In this study, three soil erosion prediction models — the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC), and the Areal Nonpoint Source Watershed Environment Response Simulation (ANSWERS) were used for simulating soil loss and testing the capability of the models in predicting soil losses for three different tillage systems (ridge-till, chisel-plow, and no-till). For each model, the most sensitive model parameters were calibrated using measured soil erosion data. After calibration, models were run and predicted soil loss values were compared with the measured soil loss values. The measured soil erosion data were collected from an erosion experiment field of Kansas State University at Ottawa (Kansas), USA. Field experiments were conducted from 1995 to 1997 on small plots to measure runoff and soil losses under all three tillage systems. All three models were evaluated on the basis of individual event, total yearly, and mean event-based soil loss predictions. Results showed that all the three models performed reasonably well and the predicted soil looses were within the range of measured values. For ridge-till and chisel-plow systems, WEPP and ANSWERS gave better predictions than those by EPIC model. For no-till system, WEPP and EPIC predictions were better than those by ANSWERS. The overall results indicate that WEPP predictions were better than those by the other two models in most of the cases, and it can be used with reasonable degree of confidence for soil loss quantification for all the three tillage systems.     

Hydrologic and water quality impacts and biomass production potential on marginal land

Marginal land is proposed as viable land resources for biofuel production. However, environmental impacts of perennial biomass production on marginal lands is not clear. This study defined three marginal land types and assessed their availability and potential for biofuel production in the St. Joseph River watershed. The potential impacts were evaluated using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. The total area of marginal land was estimated to be 611 km² covering 21.7% of the watershed. 161 and 207 million liters of bioethanol could be produced from the marginal land utilizing switchgrass and Miscanthus, respectively. Converting marginal land currently under corn/soybean production to switchgrass and Miscanthus reduced water yield by 13.4–36.3% and improved water quality by reducing soil erosion by 27%–98%. Similarly, total nitrogen losses were reduced by 30–91% and total phosphorus losses were reduced by 65–76%, respectively, at the field scales under various energy crop production scenarios.     

Harnessing information for development: A proposal for a world bank group vision and strategy∗

Abstract

Revolutionary advances in information technology reinforce economic and social changes that are transforming business and society. A new kind of economy ‐ the information economy ‐ is emerging where trade and investment are global and firms compete with knowledge, networking and agility on a global basis. A corresponding new society is also emerging with pervasive information capabilities that make it substantially different from an industrial society: more competitive, more democratic, less centralized, less stable, better able to address individual needs, and friendlier to the environment.

These changes dictate, for all countries, a major adjustment to harness information for economic and social development. This adjustment requires urgent new policies, regulatory and institutional reforms, and investments. Through this adjustment, countries must achieve macroeconomic balance, political stability, and growth amidst global information flows, competition, trade, and investment. Advanced countries are rapidly adjusting. Developing countries must also adjust or risk exclusion from the global economy and severe competitive disadvantage for their goods and services.

Fortunately, the information revolution creates both the challenge and the means for countries to adjust to new ways of doing business and to put in place the needed infrastructure of telecommunications and information systems. The information revolution also creates extraordinary new opportunities to attack vexing problems of poverty, inequality, and environmental degradation.

To harness information and information technology for its mission of poverty alleviation and sustainable economic development, the World Bank Group will pursue four objectives in its assistance strategy:

• Widespread and equitable access to communication and information services through accelerated deployment of national information infrastructure and effective integration into international communication and information networks.

• Systemic improvements in the functioning and competitiveness of key economic sectors through strategic information policies and systems.

• New ways to use information technology to help solve the most pressing problems of human and economic development ‐ education, health, poverty alleviation, rural development, and care for the environment.

• Increased impact of the entire range of World Bank Group operations through inclusion of effective information components.

The World Bank Group will be a long‐term partner and facilitator for countries adjusting to the information economy. It will cooperate with them on information policy, strategy, and project design at the national and sectoral levels. To this end, it will develop strategic alliances to mobilize worldwide knowledge and financing, including its own. In addition, the World Bank Group will increase the level and effectiveness of the information content of its projects in all sectors and will explore new frontiers of development through information‐intensive projects.     

From the Past to the Present: Evolution of Computing in the Sinhala Language

The Sinhala writing system used in Sri Lanka is syllabic and features as many as 2,300 glyphs. Computer equipment used to represent Sinhala language needs to facilitate this complexity, in both display and printing, without adding extra complexity to the keyboard or the input systems. This article surveys the evolution of Sinhala computing technology over the past 25 years.     

Computing in Sri Lankan universities,a Sri Lankan viewpoint

Abstract

This paper discusses the strategy adopted to introduce computing into Sri Lankan universities, the lessons learnt in the process, and the present and future of the new discipline in the universities in Sri Lanka.     

坡地土壤养分流失研究概况

坡地土壤养分流失与土壤侵蚀发生过程及面源污染的产生息息相关,本文主要从养分流失途径、影响因素、数学模型及调控措施方面阐述了有关坡地土壤养分流失研究的基本情况,并建设性地提出了今后研究的要点和趋势,以期为坡地养分相关研究提供信息和参考。