White flight in Los Angeles county, 1960–1990: a model of fuzzy tipping

Schelling’s (J Math Sociol 1:143–186, 1971) tipping model is a classic model of racial residential segregation. In this paper, the Schelling original is translated into a fuzzy set version and tested against demographic census data in Los Angeles county from 1960 to 1990. Results of nonlinear least squares regressions indicate that the tipping point has shifted from around 0.36 between 1960 and 1970 to 0.78 between 1980 and 1990. Regression results also suggest a constantly decreasing extent of White flight in the census tract level. These findings confirm the existence of the fuzzy tipping mechanism. They also reflect steady progression toward racially integrated urban residential pattern in Los Angles county from 1960 to 1990.     

Protecting Lives and Property in the Wildland–Urban Interface: Communities in Montana and Southern California Adopt Australian Paradigm

Threats to people and property in the wildland–urban interface have taken on global proportions. It is becoming increasingly rare to have a wildland fire incident that does not involve people and their homes. In addition to Australia and North America, people have died in interface fires in Europe, Africa, and Asia, including 212 people who died in the devastating forest fires in northeastern China in May 1987. The prevailing interface model is one that attempts to evacuate people away from fire areas to get them out of harm’s way. This traditional approach in the U.S. has been preferred by law enforcement agencies and fire services. The problem with this model is that evacuation warnings are often late to non-existent, leading to the deaths of interface residents entrapped by fires on highways as they try to escape. For example, 16 people suffered lethal burns when the 2003 Cedar and Paradise Fires in California overran them as they were trying to evacuate. Two communities in the United States have adopted variations of the Australian model of Prepare, Go Early, or Stay and Defend (P/GE/SD). Officials in the Painted Rocks Fire District, Montana, and Rancho Santa Fe, California, were interviewed to determine how the Australian model was being implemented. Two of the authors have firsthand experience with these two case examples. P/GE/SD has been tested successfully at both locations. The Australian model, however, is under review following the Black Saturday fires of February 2009 in Victoria, Australia. The objective of this paper is to present specific ideas that can be used to reform and improve fire policy, planning, and performance in the Wildland–Urban Interface in the United States.     

A Review of “Art and the city; Civic imagination and cultural authority in Los Angeles”

Evaluation Studies Review Annual, Volume 1 Gene V. Glass, ed. Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, Calif., 1976. 672 pp. $29.95.

Evaluation Studies Review Annual, Volume 2 Marcia Guttentag with Shalom Saar, eds. Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, Calif., 1977. 736 pp. $29.95.

The Evaluation of Social Programs Clark C. Abt, ed. Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, Calif., 1976. 503 pp. $25.

A Decade of Federal Antipoverty Programs Robert H. Haveman, ed. Academic Press, New York, 1977. 381 pp. $17.

Poor People's Movements: Why They Succeed, How They Fail Frances Fox Piven and Richard A. Cloward. Pantheon Books, New York, 1977. 381 pp. $12.95.

Social Science and Public Policy Martin Rein. Penguin Books, New York, 1976. 272 pp. $2.95 (paperback).

Social Policy: An Australian Introduction Adam Graycar. MacMillan, Melbourne and Sydney, Australia, 1977. 70 pp. $3.50 (paperback).

Social Services in the United States: Policies and Programs Sheila B. Kamerman and Alfred J. Kahn. Temple University Press, Philadelphia, 1976. 554 pp. $15. (cloth), $7.95 (paperback).

The Structure of Urban Reform Roland L. Warren, Stephen M. Rose, and Ann F. Bergunder. Lexington Books, D.C. Heath and Company, Lexington, Mass., 1974. 214 pp. $14.50.

Planning for Social Welfare: Issues, Models, and Tasks Neil Gilbert and Harry Specht, eds. Prentice-Hall, Engle-wood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1977. 390 pp. $13.50.

The Implementation Game: What Happens after a Bill Becomes a Law Eugene Bardach. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1977. 323 pp. $17.95.

The Politics of Social Service Jeffry H. Galper. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1975. xi + 237 pp. $6.95.

Health Care Politics: Ideological and Interest Group Barriers to Reform Robert R. Alford. University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London, 1975. xiv + 294 pp. $4.95.

Need Assessment in Health and Human Services Roger A. Bell, Martin Sundel, Joseph F. Aponte, and Stanley Murrell, eds. University of Louisville, Louisville, Ky., 1976. 360 pp. $8.95 (paperback).

Human Services and Resource Networks Seymour B. Sarason, Charles Carroll, Kenneth Maton, Saul Cohen, and Elizabeth Lorentz. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, 1977. 201 pp. $12.95.

Awakenings Oliver Sacks. Vintage Books, New York, 1976. 344 pp.

Social Services Planning Series The Research Group, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia.

State Experiences in Social Services Planning: Eight Case Studies on Social Services Planning in Response to Title XX of the Social Security Act Gerald T. Horton, ed. 1976. 520 pp. $10. (paperback).

Alternative Approaches to the Organization and Staffing for Social Services Planning: State Experiences and Suggested Approaches Gerald T. Horton, ed. 1976. 66 pp. $2.50 (paperback).

Techniques for Needs Assessment in Social Service Planning: State Experiences and Suggested Approaches Edmund H. Armentrout, ed. 1976. 122 pp. $5. (paperback).

Techniques for Resource Identification and Service Inventory in Social Services Planning: State Experiences and Suggested Approaches Gerald T. Horton, ed. 1976. 82 pp. $3. (paperback).

Techniques for Goal and Objective Setting in Social Services Planning: State Experiences and Suggested Approaches Edmund H. Armentrout, ed. 1976. 75 pp. $3. (paperback).

Techniques for Resource Allocation in Social Services Planning: State Experiences and Suggested Approaches Edmund H. Armentrout, ed. 1976. 71 pp. $2.50 (paperback).

Alternative Approaches to Program Planning Coordination in Social Services Planning: State Experiences and Suggested Approaches Gerald T. Horton, ed. 1976. 44 pp. $2. (paperback).

Preparation and Format for State Social Service Program Plans in Social Services Planning Gerald T. Horton, ed. 1976. 93 pp. $3. (paperback).

Techniques for Public Information, Participation, Review and Comment in Social Services Planning: State Experiences and Suggested Approaches Victoria M. E. Carr, ed. 1976. 63 pp. $2.50 (paperback).

Alternative Approaches to Program Development in Social Services Planning The Research Group, Inc. 1976. 69 pp. $5.

Social Limits to Growth Fred Hirsch. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1976. 208 pp. $10.

The Limits to Satisfaction—An Essay on the Problems of Needs and Commodities William Leiss. University of Toronto Press, Toronto and Buffalo, 1976. 159 pp. $4.50 (paperback).

The Poverty of Power—Energy and the Economic Crisis Barry Commoner. Knopf, New York, 1976. 314 pp. $10.

The New Urban Politics Louis H. Masotti and Robert L Lineberry, eds. Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass., 1976. 264 pp. $15. (cloth), $7.95 (paperback).

No Little Plans: Fairfax County's PLUS Program for Managing Growth Grace Dawson. The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C., 1977. 168 pp. $3.95 (paperback).

Land Use Controls in the United States Natural Resources Defense Council. Dial Press, New York, 1977. 362 pp. $15.95 (cloth), $7.95 (paperback).

Federal Land Use Regulation Fred P. Bosselman, Duane Feurer, Tobin M. Richter. Available from the Practising Law Institute, New York. 384 pp. $35.

Urban Modelling: Algorithms, Calibrations, Prediction Michael Batty. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Great Britain, 1976. 381 + xxv pp. $46.

The Fiscal Impact Handbook: Projecting the Local Costs and Revenues Related to Growth Robert W. Burchell and David Listokin. Rutgers University, Center for Urban Policy Research, New Brunswick, N.J. 1978. 542 pp. $20.

Planning the Fourth Migration: The Neglected Vision of the Regional Planning Association of America Carl Sussman, ed. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1976. 277 pp. $14.95.

Comparative Metropolitan Analysis Project John S. Adams and Ronald Abler; Ki-Suk Lee, Chief Cartographer; Ronald Abler, ed. (For the Association of American Geographers). Three volumes.

Volume 1, Contemporary Metropolitan America: Twenty Geographical Vignettes Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass., 1976. In four volumes, $100 the set.

Volume 2, Urban Policymaking and Metropolitan Dynamics: A Comparative Geographical Analysis Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass., 1976. 577 pp. $25.

Volume 3, A Comparative Atlas of America's Great Cities: Twenty Metropolitan Regions University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, 1976. 527 pp. $95.     

Landscape and the philosophy of aesthetics: is landscape quality inherent in the landscape or in the eye of the beholder?

The paper proposes that landscape quality assessment may be approached on the basis of two contrasting paradigms, one which regards quality as inherent in the physical landscape, and the other which regards quality as a product of the mind – eye of the beholder. These are termed, respectively, the objectivist and subjectivist paradigms. These paradigms underlie the surveys of the physical landscape and studies of observer preferences.Examination of these paradigms through the approaches taken by philosophers from Plato to modern times demonstrates the ubiquity of the paradigms in underlying human perception of landscape. Until recent centuries, the objectivist paradigm provided philosophers with the basis for understanding beauty, including landscape beauty. However, the philosophers Locke, Hume, Burke and particularly Immanuel Kant identified beauty as lying in the eyes of the beholder rather than in the object. The parallels between Kant's aesthetic philosophy and contemporary theories of landscape quality based on an evolutionary perspective are examined. Most philosophers over recent centuries have adopted the subjectivist view of aesthetics.The paper concludes by proposing that only the subjectivist model should be used in research of landscape quality.     

“Social capitalism” in renewable energy generation: China and California comparisons

With a population of over 1.3 billion people, demand for renewable energy is expected to grow to a USD $12 billion market in the near term. Under Renewable Energy Law (REL) in February 2005 in the People's Republic of China (PRC) passed by the National Congress, renewable energy projects will be able to receive a range of financial incentives starting in 2006, which will more than double the PRC current renewable energy generation from 7% to 15% by 2020. Most of the increase will be in hydroelectric generated power. Nonetheless, the nation and especially the provinces are moving rapidly to develop a wide range of renewable energy generation including solar, wind, geothermal and run of the river.Because China practices “social capitalism” as expressed in it's recurrent Five Year National Plans since 1999, the national government and all the provinces have programs, unlike many western and industrialized nations, to “plan” and provide for infrastructures. This paper concerns only the energy infrastructure sector and renewable energy generation in particular. The planning process includes financial incentives and investments which are a major part of the Chinese law focused on “encouraging foreign investment industries”. The key part of the law is to guarantee long-term power purchase agreements with state owned and controlled “utilities”. In short, China may have gotten the economics of the energy sector correct in its concern for planning and finance.The paper develops these energy infrastructure ideas along with the legal and financial requirements as “lessons” learned from the USA and especially California. These lessons now apply to China and allow it to learn from the American mistakes. Empirical data will be drawn from work done in China that examine the renewable energy generation and infrastructures and hence allow the RPC and its Provinces to “leap frog ”the mistakes of other developed nations. Further lessons will be learned from provinces and related infrastructures in China, such as water, transportation, environment, waste and telecommunications. More significantly, the USA and western industrialized nations may now learn from the Chinese.     

“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

We examine the time-series relationship between house prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles house prices cause house prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas house prices cause house prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles house prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix house prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities.     

Temporal mapping of riparian landscape change on the Sacramento river,miles 196–218, California,USA

The middle Sacramento River is a low-gradient meandering sector in which vegetation patches are continuously created and destroyed within a complex landscape mosaic. The erosion and subsequent deposition of sediment begins a process of vegetation succession which continues until the meandering action of the river returns its course to that location. The objectives were: (1) to develop a methodology for photo-interpretation of land cover and canopy height using recent aerial photographs; (2) to validate the results of this methodology through field verification; and (3) to apply the methodology to a time sequence of historical aerial photographs to develop land cover maps to measure cumulative (gross) decadal changes. This research was carried out on a 31-km reach (|similar|6700 ha) of the Sacramento River that exhibits dynamic channel meandering behaviour. The results of the study suggest that the riparian landscape mosaic can change structure dramatically over the course of decades. Thus, conservation planning aimed at recovering threatened and endangered species should take these habitat changes into explicit consideration.     

Mass housing and urbanization: on the road to modernization in Santiago,Chile, 1930–60

The creation of the Caja de la Habitación Popular [Popular Housing Fund] in 1936 was largely a quest for the design of a model home and a modern city for Chile, a country emerging from colonialism. The Caja operated for twenty‐six years until 1952, building 43 310 houses during three different presidential administrations. It soon became the major way to reflect the country’s development, modernize society, bolster the economy, support national industry and signal what role housing programmes would play in public policy for the rest of the twentieth century. While previous administrations were motivated primarily by partisan politics, the new era of public administration was based upon an objective planning system. This paper focuses on the Caja’s affordable housing struggle and how it shaped large portions of Santiago between the 1930s and 1960s. It also explores the transformation in public housing programmes and agencies from their amateur beginnings to their later professionalized approach. It examines a number of the public and private housing schemes built during different political regimes in Santiago’s history, the planners and architects making persistent efforts to modernize and develop the city. These projects explored both the potentialities and limitations of urban design in housing and made a profound impact on housing design in Chile, as well as on the morphology of its cities.     

Land Use Planning for Seismic Safety: The Los Angeles County Experience, 1971–1994

The 1971 San Fernando Earthquake increased the level of seismic safety concern by local, state, and federal government agencies, and it catalyzed numerous policy changes by all three levels of government. New demands were placed on local planning and building departments to consider the seismic safety implications of their decisions. This article reports on research that describes how several southern California jurisdictions implemented these requirements and evaluates their success as tested by the 1994 North-ridge Earthquake. The research found that seismic hazard information generally has not affected decisions on location, type, or intensity of land uses unless coupled with other concerns. Seismic safety policies, however, have created an environment in which it is easier to implement engineering initiatives, such as building codes or hazard abatement.     

Introduction to a special issue: the future of landscape characterisation,and the future character of landscape – between space,time, history,place and nature

Abstract

In any discussion of landscape characterisation the elephant in the room is the question of just what is landscape? Another way of putting this question is to simply ask: ‘How would you characterise landscape?’ What this implies is that there is a certain circularity in landscape characterisation because, through the very act of characterising landscape, one is also defining what one means by landscape. The European Landscape Convention’s definition of landscape as ‘an area, as perceived by people, whose character is the result of the action and interaction of natural and/or human factors’ suggests a similar circularity because the character of an area, as it results from the action of natural and/or human factors, is dependent upon human perception, which is presumably also, in addition, one of the human factors acting upon the landscape. This circularity, or ‘circulating reference’, to use Bruno Latour’s term, is fundamental to Denis Cosgrove’s analysis of the origin of the modern concept of landscape as scenic space, and his analysis, we would suggest, helps explain some of the questions raised in this special issue concerning landscape characterisation and the future character of landscape .     

Learning from Southern California: a typology of neighborhood‐scale projects,the emerging metropolitan form and the implications for public policy

This paper presents a typology of neighborhood‐scale projects in Southern California, examines their impact on the emerging metropolitan form and discusses policy implications. This region is growing fast and is facing several problems. It is also the focus of inquiry of municipal control of land use regulations that support Tiebout sorting and contribute to social and spatial segregation. Given this, the paper examines whether certain types of projects are being built in certain types of cities and whether these projects are likely to support Tiebout sorting. A survey of city planners was used to collect data about the attributes of 169 projects. The results suggest that the association between the attributes of projects and characteristics of cities is not strong and reveal how certain types of projects might address some of the region’s problems. The paper concludes with a discussion of opportunities to create a better metropolitan form.     

Concentration or diffusion? Exploring the emerging spatial dynamics of poverty distribution in Southern California

While urban poverty has been known to be spatially concentrated in inner-city areas for a long time, the degree of poverty concentration has declined substantially since the 1990s, whereas poverty has increasingly expanded to suburban areas to which relatively little attention has been paid. This study examines how poverty distribution has changed in the Los Angeles-Long Beach Combined Statistical Area and why. More specifically, an investigation is made to capture the detailed changes of poverty rates in over three thousand census tracts over the last two decades and to identify driving forces behind these spatiotemporal changes by employing spatial regression models. Results show that high poverty areas have stretched over space, not in a way that expands their overall size but in a way that increases the degree of spatial fragmentation throughout the last two decades. The results also reveal that neighborhood poverty change is largely shaped by wealth clustering and other spatially-explicit processes.     

Valley landscape management: the context of a ‘river contract’ in the Semois valley,Belgium

A trans‐boundary and multi‐disciplinary approach to the river contract project for the Semois valley in Wallonia (Belgium) is described that provided the opportunity for a landscape‐scale focus during actions to restore the watercourses and the associated valley area. A trans‐boundary landscape survey was carried out under the context of the Interreg III European programme. This resulted in the rediscovery of lost views and viewpoints within the landscape and in the implementation of actions leading to the opening up of the valley, which provided opportunities to re‐establish lost landscape features, such as hay meadows. The gathering of many partners in the negotiation process of this project can be seen as an example of ‘landscape democratization’ or participative management of landscapes in a trans‐boundary and trans‐disciplinary context and as such this project is a concrete realization of the aims of the European Landscape Convention (ELC).     

Developing the untapped wealth of Britain's ‘Celtic Fringe’: Water engineering and the Welsh landscape, 1870 – 1960

This paper focuses on the development of water engineering schemes in Wales in the late 19th and 20th centuries, concentrating mainly on water-supply schemes promoted by large English municipalities such as Birmingham and Liverpool, but also discussing hydro-electricity. It is argued that the first water engineering projects in Wales were informed by certain perceptions of the Welsh landscape and wider discourses regarding Britain's ‘Celtic Fringe’, and that such concepts were used to promote ideas of water purity. Ideas of ‘progress’ and ‘modernity’ surrounding the changing of the landscape through water works are analysed, and how such notions were challenged in the 20th century is explored, particularly from conservationist and nationalist perspectives. In the second half of the 20th century, it is argued, a paradox emerges, whereby different ways of seeing or perceiving the landscape of Wales led to a divergence in the political dynamics surrounding water-supply projects and hydro-electric schemes.