Application of a GIS-based simulation tool to illustrate implications of uncertainties for water management in the Amudarya river delta

River basin management decisions have to be made under uncertainty. Relevant uncertainties especially in external driving forces can often not be sufficiently reduced. Rather than expecting to eliminate them, new management strategies should thus aim at taking them into account. Simulation tools can support a process of reasoning about the implications of uncertainties for the outcome of management policies in a specific river basin management context. Model supported scenario analysis of alternative strategies with authorities, managers and other stakeholders can assist in the development of new strategies. The tools provide factual knowledge on the outcome of policy options proposed as scenarios by the participants to the debate. The GIS-based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support assessment of the ecological effects of alternative water management strategies in the degraded Amudarya river delta. It combines a multi-objective water allocation model with simple models of landscape dynamics and a fuzzy based evaluation of habitat suitability for riverine Tugai forests. In this paper an example application of the tool for scenario analysis to illustrate the implications of uncertainty in future water supply to the delta area is demonstrated. Scenario analysis provides an assessment of the range and magnitude of the impact of those uncertainties on the ecological situation in the delta. The potential and limitations of applying simple simulation tools in participative settings for analysis and discussion of the potential impacts of uncertainties and development of cooping strategies are discussed.     

Experience of model integration and Pareto frontier visualization in the search for preferable water quality strategies

A real-life application of a new approach to integrated assessment and screening of water quality improvement strategies in large river basins is presented. The approach is based on the integration of diverse data and mathematical models as well as on the application of interactive visualization of the Pareto frontier. The case study water quality planning in the Oka River, the Volga River basin, is presented within the framework of a DSS for screening water quality planning strategies. The Decision Support System (DSS) was commissioned by the Russian Federal Ministry for Natural Resources within the Federal programme “Revival of the Volga River”.     

An interdisciplinary modelling framework for selecting adaptation measures at the river basin scale in a global change scenario

Shaping global change adaptation strategy in water resource systems requires an interdisciplinary approach to deal with the multiple dimensions of the problem. The modelling framework presented integrates climate, economic, agronomic and hydrological scenarios to design a programme of adaptation measures at the river basin scale. Future demand scenarios, combined with a down-scaled climate scenario, provide the basis to estimate the demand and water resources in 2030. A least-cost river basin optimisation model is then applied to select adaptation measures ensuring that environmental and supply management goals are achieved. In the Orb river basin (France), the least-cost portfolio selected suggests mixing demand and supply side measures to adapt to global change. Trade-offs among the cost of the programme of measures, the deficit in agricultural water supply and the level of environmental flows are investigated. The challenges to implement such interdisciplinary approaches in the definition of adaptation strategies are finally discussed.     

A modelling framework to support farmers in designing agricultural production systems

Given the new challenges confronting world agriculture, innovative production systems need to be designed at the farm level. As experiments are not easy to conduct at this level, modelling is required to evaluate ex-ante the multiple impacts of proposed innovations. A conceptual framework based on three sub-systems (biophysical, technical, and decisional) interacting within the farm is proposed to guide this process. The advantages and limitations of the framework are illustrated with three examples. The first describes a conceptual, rule-based model representing management decisions for the cultivation of salad in southern France. The second uses a computerized model of the three sub-systems to study irrigation management strategies on farms producing hay in southern France. The third presents a spreadsheet model designed to assist dairy farms in Morocco to define new livestock and forage system strategies. The lessons learned concern the modelling process, the fit between the type of model and its use, and the advantage of involving stakeholders in the design process of tools and innovations.     

松花江突发水污染可视化模拟系统研究与实现

针对目前松花江流域突发水污染日益严重,水污染可视化模拟不足的情况,基于可视化技术,研究水质模型与3S集成环境的融合方法与途径,构建了松花江突发水污染可视化模拟系统,实现了水质模型计算数据的动态可视化展现。着重介绍了三角网的构建和水质数据的拟合。以2005年松花江水污染为例,模拟了污染物的扩散和迁移过程,证明了该系统的有效性。     

Interannual variability in water storage over 2003-2008 in the Amazon Basin from GRACE space gravimetry, in situ river level and precipitation data

We investigate the interannual variability over 2003-2008 of different hydrological parameters in the Amazon river basin: (1) vertically-integrated water storage from the GRACE space gravimetry mission, (2) surface water level of the Amazon River and its tributaries from in situ gauge stations, and (3) precipitation. We analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of total water storage from GRACE and in situ river level along the Amazon River and its main tributaries and note significant differences between the various parts of the basin. We also perform an Empirical Orthogonal Decomposition of total water storage, river level and precipitation over the whole basin. We find that the 2003-2008 period, is characterized by two major hydrological events: a temporary drought in late 2005 that affected the western and central parts of the basin and very wet conditions peaking in mid-2006, in the eastern, northern and southern regions of the basin. Derivative of basin-average water storage from GRACE is shown to be highly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (a proxy of ENSO — El Niño-Southern Oscillation), confirming that the spatio-temporal change in hydrology of the Amazon basin is at least partly driven by the ENSO phenomenon, as noticed in previous studies.     

OpenMI-based integrated sediment transport modelling of the river Zenne,Belgium

Recent observations show that the river Zenne (Belgium) remains well below the water quality goals stated by the European Union Water Framework Directive. An interuniversity, multidisciplinary research project was therefore launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the ecological functioning of the river. To this end, different water quantity and quality processes had to be considered and modelled, e.g., the hydrology in the river basin, hydraulics in the river and sewers, erosion and sediment transport, faecal bacteria transport and decay. This paper considers the development of an Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI) based integrated model for the purpose of simulating the river's sediment dynamics. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model water and sediment fluxes from rural areas. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to simulate the hydraulics of the river, canal, and sewer systems in urban catchments. New model codes for sediment transport and stream water temperature were developed to complement SWMM. The results show that the integrated sediment transport model reproduced the sediment concentrations in the river Zenne with ‘good’ to ‘satisfactory’ accuracy. We may therefore conclude that the OpenMI has been successfully implemented to integrate water quality models into a hydraulic one. While the OpenMI run-time data communication inflicted calculation time overhead, we found that the overhead was not significant with respect to the total run-time of the integrated model.     

Analysing complex behaviour of hydrological systems through a system dynamics approach

The interaction among various water cycle components consists of complex, non-linear, and bidirectional (interdependent) biophysical processes which can be interpreted using feedback loops in a system dynamics (SD) environment. This paper demonstrates application of an SD approach with two case studies using a specialised software tool, Vensim. The first case study simulates water balance in a rice field system on a daily basis under aerobic conditions with provision of supplemental irrigation on demand. A physically based conceptual water balance model was developed and then implemented using Vensim to simulate the processes that occur in the field water balance system including percolation, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration, and capillary rise. The second case study simulates surface–groundwater dynamic interactions in an irrigation area where river water and groundwater are two key sources of irrigation. The modelled system encompasses dynamically linked processes including seepage from the river, evaporation from a shallow watertable, groundwater storage, and lateral flow from upland to lowland areas. The model can be applied to simulate responses of different irrigation management scenarios, to develop strategies to improve water use efficiency and control watertable, to prevent salinization in upland, and to reduce the cost of groundwater abstraction in lowland areas. The discussed applications of the SD approach conclude that it helps to conceptualize and simulate complex and dynamic water system processes deterministically which are otherwise partly simulated by conventional hydrologic and stochastic modelling approaches. It is recognised that conceptualization and implementation phases of this approach are challenging, however, the latter is greatly assisted by modern computer softwares.     

An object-oriented application framework for building water resource information and planning tools applied to the design of a flood analysis system

An object-oriented framework for building computer based modelling tools for water resource planning is presented. The focus is on building a program for flood calculations in river systems with several reservoirs and water transfer structures. The foundation for the flood model is a general application framework for building hydrological modelling tools. The general framework provides the user with tools for describing the structural components of the hydrological system, their relation in the system topology and controlling the behaviour of the system during simulation. Hydrological models are often data intensive, and the framework is equipped with tools to handle both time series and spatially-distributed data efficiently. During the development, effort has been put into supporting future changes and extensions to the model system, as well as creating sound reusable components that will benefit future development and maintenance. A flood modelling application in the Norwegian river Gudbrandsdalslågen is described to illustrate the use of the toolkit.     

Assessment of surface water quality using multivariate statistical techniques: A case study of the Fuji river basin,Japan

Multivariate statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (FA) and discriminant analysis (DA), were applied for the evaluation of temporal/spatial variations and the interpretation of a large complex water quality data set of the Fuji river basin, generated during 8 years (1995–2002) monitoring of 12 parameters at 13 different sites (14 976 observations). Hierarchical cluster analysis grouped 13 sampling sites into three clusters, i.e., relatively less polluted (LP), medium polluted (MP) and highly polluted (HP) sites, based on the similarity of water quality characteristics. Factor analysis/principal component analysis, applied to the data sets of the three different groups obtained from cluster analysis, resulted in five, five and three latent factors explaining 73.18, 77.61 and 65.39% of the total variance in water quality data sets of LP, MP and HP areas, respectively. The varifactors obtained from factor analysis indicate that the parameters responsible for water quality variations are mainly related to discharge and temperature (natural), organic pollution (point source: domestic wastewater) in relatively less polluted areas; organic pollution (point source: domestic wastewater) and nutrients (non-point sources: agriculture and orchard plantations) in medium polluted areas; and organic pollution and nutrients (point sources: domestic wastewater, wastewater treatment plants and industries) in highly polluted areas in the basin. Discriminant analysis gave the best results for both spatial and temporal analysis. It provided an important data reduction as it uses only six parameters (discharge, temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, electrical conductivity and nitrate nitrogen), affording more than 85% correct assignations in temporal analysis, and seven parameters (discharge, temperature, biochemical oxygen demand, pH, electrical conductivity, nitrate nitrogen and ammonical nitrogen), affording more than 81% correct assignations in spatial analysis, of three different sampling sites of the basin. Therefore, DA allowed a reduction in the dimensionality of the large data set, delineating a few indicator parameters responsible for large variations in water quality. Thus, this study illustrates the usefulness of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and interpretation of complex data sets, and in water quality assessment, identification of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management.     

Cyclic control of water quality in a tidal river segment

This paper suggests a simple method for maintaining a desired level of dissolved oxygen in a tidal river. The scheme takes advantage of the short time periodic tidal nature of the river in the utilization of the ability of the river to assimilate biological oxygen demand loading. The parameters of the river model are determined on-line using a Powell search to process actual river data. After model parameter identification, the Powell search is again applied to find the parameters of the control effort to be applied to the cyclic control of reaeration effort and BOD discharge into the stream. Identification of the model parameters requires measurements of only BOD and DO. Because the system is designed to keep the model up-dated in the short term sense, it also implicitly accounts for the usual long term influences. The modelling procedure was tested against data obtained from the Penobscot River in Maine, and the control strategies were tested on the river model simulation.     

A model library for simulation and benchmarking of integrated urban wastewater systems

This paper presents a freely distributed, open-source toolbox to predict the behaviour of urban wastewater systems (UWS). The proposed library is used to develop a system-wide Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM-UWS) for evaluating (local/global) control strategies in urban wastewater systems (UWS). The set of models describe the dynamics of flow rates and major pollutants (COD, TSS, N and P) within the catchment (CT), sewer network (SN), wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and river water system (RW) for a hypothetical, though realistic, UWS. Evaluation criteria are developed to allow for direct assessment of the river water quality instead of the traditional emission based metrics (for sewer overflows and WWTP discharge). Three case studies are included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed toolbox and also demonstrate the potential benefits of implementing integrated control in the BSM-UWS platform. Simulation results show that the integrated control strategy developed to maximize the utilization of the WWTP's capacity represents a balanced choice in comparison to other options. It also improves the river water quality criteria for unionized ammonia and dissolved oxygen by 62% and 6%, respectively.     

An optimization-model-based interactive decision support system for regional energy management systems planning under uncertainty

In this study, an interactive decision support system (UREM-IDSS) has been developed based on an inexact optimization model (UREM, University of Regina Energy Model) to aid decision makers in planning energy management systems. Optimization modeling, scenario development, user interaction, policy analysis and visual display are seamlessly integrated into the UREM-IDSS. Uncertainties in energy-related parameters are effectively addressed through the interval linear programming (ILP) approach, improving the robustness of the UREM-IDSS for real-world applications. Thus, it can be used as an efficient tool for analyzing and visualizing impacts of energy and environmental policies, regional/community sustainable development strategies, emission reduction measures and climate change in an interactive, flexible and dynamic context. The Region of Waterloo has been selected to demonstrate the applicability and capability of the UREM-IDSS. A variety of scenarios (including a reference case) have been identified based on different energy management policies and sustainable development strategies for in-depth analysis of interactions existing among energy, socio-economy, and environment in the Region. Useful solutions for the planning of energy management systems have been generated, reflecting complex tradeoffs among energy-related, environmental and economic considerations. Results indicate that the UREM-IDSS can be successfully used for evaluating and analyzing not only the effects of an individual policy scenario, but also the variations between different scenarios compared with a reference case. Also, the UREM-IDSS can help tackle dynamic and interactive characteristics of the energy management system in the Region of Waterloo, and can address issues concerning cost-effective allocation of energy resources and services. Thus, it can be used by decision makers as an effective technique in examining and visualizing impacts of energy and environmental policies, regional/community development strategies, emission reduction measures, and climate change within an integrated and dynamic framework.     

The assessment of emission-source contributions to air quality by using a coupled MM5-ARPS-CMAQ modeling system: A case study in the Beijing metropolitan region,China

A coupled MM5-ARPS-CMAQ air quality modeling system was applied for investigating the contributions of various emission sources to the ambient concentrations of PM₁₀ in the Beijing metropolitan region of China. A three-level nested simulation domain was established for facilitating the modeling study, and a GIS-based atmospheric pollutant emission database was constructed to provide important emission information for the Models-3/CMAQ model. After verification, the coupled modeling system was implemented to predict the hourly contribution ratios of various PM₁₀ emission sources to Beijing's air quality during four representative months of January, April, August and October in the base year of 2002. It was found from the modeling results that three major sources (including fugitive industrial emissions, construction sites, and road dusts) presented a relatively high contribution to the PM₁₀ pollution in Beijing, with the contribution ratios of 28.67%, 42.88%, 42.46% and 35.67% for spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. In addition, the impacts of emissions from two major industrial zones within Beijing on its air quality were quantified. Moreover, the coupled modeling system was applied to explore possible future PM₁₀ concentration distributions in 2008 through two proposed emission sources reduction strategies. It was found that Beijing needs to take continual emission control efforts to comprehensively improve its air quality to the Class II level by 2008. The modeling results could provide sound decision making basis for developing effective air quality management strategies in the planning region.     

空间相似查询中MBR边界区域关系研究

相似查询是基于向量空间的一种重要查询方法。点、线段、区域是向量空间对空间对象的三种基本表达。本文在不改变结点MBR区域前提下,通过区域扫描对MBR区域重叠面积进行计算。利用R*树结点MBR允许重叠的特性,在不能消除区域重叠产生的死空间情况下,研究了更为精确的MBR边界的线段关系,并给出线段的最近邻查询算法和相似线段选取算法。实验结果表明该方法的CPU计算代价较低且显著提高了相似查询与更新的效率。     

Development and testing of a river basin management simulation game for integrated management of the Magdalena-Cauca river basin

Sustainable basin management is important for both people and ecosystems. Increasing science-policy and inter-sectoral dialogue is recommended as a means to balance competing demands and achieve this; however, this dialogue is not necessarily easy to achieve. Here, we present a serious game aimed at communicating the complex relationships present in river basins and enabling dialogue between policy-makers and scientists in the Magdalena-Cauca basin, Colombia. Players guide the development of a fictional river basin over 30 years and the impacts of their decisions are simulated using WEAP water resources modelling software. The game has been used in various contexts. Here, experiences with stakeholders at a national forum in Bogota and with water professionals in Bangkok are discussed. The experience shows that the game is attractive to stakeholders, stimulates dialogue and provides interesting insights into the way computer models and stakeholders mental models can interact with and enrich each other.     

An automated multi-step calibration procedure for a river system model

Predicted climate change impact on future water availability in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) has highlighted the need for a whole of basin model that incorporates various physical and management characteristics for planning and operational purposes. Modelling platforms such as eWater Source Integrated Modelling System (Source) offer a useful framework in this regard, but at present lack automated calibration techniques to parameterise river system models.This paper presents an automated river system calibration procedure which is robust, repeatable, transparent and systematic. The procedure allows for river network calibration (as opposed to isolated reach by reach calibration), since this has more utility for basin planning and prediction. The calibration procedure routs upstream flow, estimates ungauged inputs via rainfall–runoff (RR) models, and estimates flow based split (distributary) functions and loss functions in complex river systems.This procedure was tested in the Northern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) and results from the Border Rivers catchment are presented. The results from the Border Rivers case study demonstrate the applicability of the procedure with median calibration and evaluation NSE values of 0.88 and 0.79, respectively. The use of this procedure in the Border Rivers region has highlighted the likelihood of changing stream channel connections at higher flows in the lower reaches of the river network.     

基于CIMS的水利枢纽体系结构及集成调度系统

在水利枢纽群及中小流域中，应用基于CIMS的体系结构和信息系统集成技术，集成防洪及水资源调度系统是一条有效的技术途径。以安徽省茨淮新河工程为例，阐述了基干CIMS的体系结构的基本框架与集成技术在防洪及水资源调度决策支持系统中的研究与应用。