Simulation-based seismic loss estimation of seaport transportation system

Seaport transportation system is one of the major lifeline systems in modern society and its reliable operation is crucial for the well-being of the public. However, past experiences showed that earthquake damage to port components can severely disrupt terminal operation, and thus negatively impact on the regional economy. The main purpose of this study is to provide a methodology for estimating the effects of the earthquake on the performance of the operation system of a container terminal in seaports. To evaluate the economic loss of damaged system, an analytical framework is developed by integrating simulation models for terminal operation and fragility curves of port components in the context of seismic risk analysis. For this purpose, computerized simulation model is developed and verified with actual terminal operation records. Based on the analytical procedure to assess the seismic performance of the terminal, system fragility curves are also developed. This simulation-based loss estimation methodology can be used not only for estimating the seismically induced revenue loss but also serve as a decision-making tool to select specific seismic retrofit technique on the basis of benefit-cost analysis.     

第二代基于性能地震工程中的地震易损性模型及正逆概率风险分析

第二代基于性能地震工程理论中的地震易损性主要是指结构构件以及非结构构件的抗震能力,与传统地震风险理论中的地震易损性定义和内涵并不相同。为了澄清二者的不一致性,首先介绍传统地震风险理论中地震易损性的定义和概率模型,然后指出第二代基于性能地震工程理论存在五个层次的地震易损性模型:地震需求易损性模型、抗震能力易损性模型、地震损伤易损性模型、地震损失易损性模型和抗震决策易损性模型,指出了这五种模型的区别及其相互关系,推导得到了地震需求易损性模型和地震损伤易损性模型分布参数的解析表达式。在此基础上,根据不同的不确定性传递路径,提出了正向PBEE和逆向PBEE的概念,以通过不同方式求解第二代基于性能地震工程理论的风险积分公式。基于地震危险性函数的近似表达式以及地震易损性模型及其分布参数的解析表达式,通过正向PBEE和逆向PBEE方法,分别得到了具有相同表达形式的工程需求参数EDP、地震损伤DM和决策变量DV三个层次的概率地震风险表达式。通过该文的研究,将传统地震风险分析理论与第二代基于性能地震工程理论统一在一致的理论框架之中。     

Mechanistic quantification of RC bridge damage states under earthquake through fragility analysis

Risk assessment of infrastructure systems plays an increasingly important role in their plan, design, maintenance, retrofit and life-cycle cost evaluation taking into consideration their vulnerability to natural, technological and terrorist hazard. This paper develops a mechanistic model for seismic damageability of concrete bridges in the form of fragility curve in such a way that the model can be calibrated with the empirical fragility curves constructed on the basis of the damage data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. As often observed from this and other destructive earthquakes, bridges are one of the most vulnerable components of a highway network system subjected to earthquake ground motion. For this reason, bridge damageability information in a succinct from as fragility curve is needed to pursue the seismic risk assessment of a highway networks consisting of as large as thousands of bridges that can be affected by a high magnitude earthquake with in and near the service area of the network.     

桥梁系统地震易损性分析的混合Copula函数方法

为了在桥梁系统易损性分析中考虑构件地震需求之间相关性的影响,采用贝叶斯加权平均方法构造混合Copula函数,将构件地震需求之间的相关结构和各构件的边缘分布函数进行分离;结合增量动力分析,建立了桥墩、支座等单个构件的易损性曲线及联合分布函数,提出了考虑构件地震需求相关性的桥梁系统易损性分析方法。结果表明:混合Copula函数能够准确描述构件地震需求间上、下尾相关并存的非对称相关结构,简化构件地震需求联合分布函数的建模过程;与Monte Carlo抽样方法相比,二者得到的桥梁系统易损性吻合良好,且混合Copula函数方法避免了大量的数值抽样,显著提高系统易损性分析的计算效率。     

Absence of ‘fragility’ and mechanical response of jammed granular materials

We perform molecular dynamic simulations of frictional non-thermal particles driven by an externally applied shear stress. After the system jams following a transient flow, we probe its mechanical response in order to clarify whether the resulting solid is ‘fragile’. We find the system to respond elastically and isotropically to small perturbations of the shear stress, suggesting absence of fragility. These results are interpreted in terms of the energy landscape of dissipative systems. For the same values of the control parameters, we check the behaviour of the system during a stress cycle. Increasing the maximum stress value, a crossover from a visco-elastic to a plastic regime is observed.     

Enhancement of seismic sustainability of critical facilities through system analysis

Proper functioning of critical facilities such as acute care hospitals and fire stations are essential in the aftermath of a severe earthquake. For these facilities to remain operational, not only their building structures must remain safe for continued occupancy, but also their nonstructural components/systems must remain functional. Motivated by a previous study by the second author, this paper demonstrates a probabilistic system analysis for enhancing the sustainability of deficient critical facilities. The analysis, in principle, utilizes event and fault tree procedures to evaluate the system fragility defined by the probability that the system will not perform its intended purpose. Enhancement of sustainability is demonstrated by using a representative numerical model of an existing facility. The study shows that by selecting the most vulnerable components, utilizing the concept of annual sensitivity index, the annual probability of failure can be reduced significantly in a cost-effective way.     

Seismic fragility analysis using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions

Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a set of selected intensity measures (IMs) that characterize the earthquake load. The-state-of-the art methods for fragility computation rely on full non-linear time–history analyses. Within this perimeter, there are two main approaches: the first relies on the selection and scaling of recorded ground motions; the second, based on random vibration theory, characterizes the seismic input with a parametric stochastic ground motion model (SGMM). The latter case has the great advantage that the problem of seismic risk analysis is framed as a forward uncertainty quantification problem. However, running classical full-scale Monte Carlo simulations is intractable because of the prohibitive computational cost of typical finite element models. Therefore, it is of great interest to define fragility models that link an EDP of interest with the SGMM parameters — which are regarded as IMs in this context. The computation of such fragility models is a challenge on its own and, despite a few recent studies, there is still an important research gap in this domain. This comes with no surprise as classical surrogate modeling techniques cannot be applied due to the stochastic nature of SGMM. This study tackles this computational challenge by using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions to represent the statistical dependence of EDP on IMs. More precisely, this surrogate model estimates the full conditional probability distribution of EDP conditioned on IMs. We compare the proposed approach with some state-of-the-art methods in two case studies. The numerical results show that the new method prevails over its competitors in estimating both the conditional distribution and the fragility functions.     

Solvent control of crack dynamics in a reversible hydrogel

The resistance to fracture of reversible biopolymer hydrogels is an important control factor of the textural characteristics of food gels (such as gummy candies and aspic preparations). It is also critical for their use in tissue engineering, for which mechanical protection of encapsulated components is needed. Its dependence on loading rate and, recently, on the density and strength of crosslinks has been investigated. But, so far, no attention has been paid to solvent or to environment effects. Here we report a systematic study of crack dynamics in gels of gelatin in water/glycerol mixtures. We show in this model system that increasing solvent viscosity slows down cracks; moreover soaking with solvent markedly increases gel fragility; finally tuning the viscosity by adding a miscible liquid affects crack propagation through diffusive invasion of the crack tip vicinity. The results highlight the fact that fracture occurs by viscoplastic chain pull-out. This mechanism, as well as the related phenomenology, should be common to all reversibly crosslinked (physical) gels.     

Component-based modeling of systems for automated fault tree generation

One of the challenges in the field of automated fault tree construction is to find an efficient modeling approach that can support modeling of different types of systems without ignoring any necessary details. In this paper, we are going to represent a new system of modeling approach for computer-aided fault tree generation. In this method, every system model is composed of some components and different types of flows propagating through them. Each component has a function table that describes its input-output relations. For the components having different operational states, there is also a state transition table. Each component can communicate with other components in the system only through its inputs and outputs. A trace-back algorithm is proposed that can be applied to the system model to generate the required fault trees. The system modeling approach and the fault tree construction algorithm are applied to a fire sprinkler system and the results are presented.     

基于概率性地震需求模型的桥梁易损性分析

采用概率性地震需求分析方法,建立了汶川地区典型简支梁桥的分析型地震易损性模型。基于汶川地震桥梁震后调查资料,评估了桥梁结构参数的不确定性,抽样并生成一系列桥梁的有限元模型样本。利用汶川地震实测地震波对所建立的桥梁有限元模型进行非线性动力时程分析,并记录每一组分析中桥梁构件的地震峰值响应,通过回归分析建立地震动强度和桥梁构件地震需求之间的关系。在确定桥梁不同损伤状态对应的构件极限状态后,基于对数正态分布假设生成不同损伤状态对应的地震易损性曲线,最后基于可靠度理论计算得到桥梁系统易损性的上下确界。生成的地震易损性曲线可以进一步用于地震风险评估和震后加固优先级决策。     

缓冲包装设计中构建破损边界曲线的新途径

多年的运输包装实践说明,根据传统破损边界曲线(DBC)得到的产品脆值应用到缓冲包装设计时,常会产生保守性,导致过度包装及包装材料的浪费等。根据瞬态振动理论中冲击响应谱(SRS)的基本特性,采用Biot模型代表一个产品的结构系统模型,则该结构系统是由一系列单自由度(SDOF)质量-弹簧振子所组成,再获得其SRS。通过现代的实验装置及先进测头可以获得结构系统中易损元件的SRS。然后根据工程力学中动荷系数的概念,在上述易损元件SRS基础上,设定易损元件危险点处最大应力达到弹性极限时,SRS表示的最大响应加速度值即达到了临界值,在此基础上绘制新的DBC,据此可求得基于响应加速度的新脆值。此新脆值使用在缓冲包装设计时,将会避免上述传统脆值可能带来的保守性。     

Component allocation and ordering policy in a multi-component, multi-product assembled to stock system

This paper considers a two-echelon assembled-to-stock system, consisting of several components and products, where a periodic review policy is used. Some components are common to several products. We propose a component allocation policy that attempts to minimize the total cost which consists of the holding cost and the shortage cost. This policy takes advantage of the sharing of common components. We use simulation, infinitesimal perturbation analysis and steepest descent algorithm to find the components’ order-up-to levels for the proposed policy and then compare its effectiveness with two policies that do not allow the sharing of common components. For the scenarios that we have run, the numerical results show that the proposed policy gives the lowest total cost. In addition, we have show the benefits of risk pooling from common component sharing and the echelon effect under different range of parameters.     

建筑结构倒塌分析的单自由度模型

该文建议了一种能够用于建筑结构倒塌分析的单自由度滞回模型。该模型能够模拟骨架线的强化和峰值点后的退化、滞回捏拢、往复荷载作用下的承载力和刚度退化以及P-Δ效应等。为验证所建议的单自由度滞回模型用于结构倒塌分析的有效性和合理性, 以一座8 层钢筋混凝土框架结构为例, 对原型结构和按照基本模态等效的单自由度模型分别进行了IDA 倒塌易损性分析, 结果表明两者的倒塌易损性曲线吻合较好。     

基于Copula函数的桥梁系统地震易损性方法研究

桥梁系统地震易损性分析的关键是建立桥墩、支座等多个构件的联合概率分布函数。然而,由于构件地震需求之间的相关性,直接建立构件之间的联合概率分布函数较为困难。为此,引入Copula函数方法,将构件地震需求之间的相关性和各构件的边缘概率分布函数进行分离,从而简化了联合分布函数的建模过程。在桥墩、支座地震易损性的基础上,基于Copula联合概率分布函数,建立了桥梁系统的易损性曲线,并将其和一阶界限法及Monte Carlo方法的分析结果进行对比。结果表明:基于Copula函数得到的桥梁系统易损性在整个地震动强度范围内均位于一阶界限法的上、下界之间;和Monte Carlo方法相比,Copula函数方法不仅考虑了构件地震需求之间的非线性相关关系,而且避免了大量的数值抽样,使计算效率显著提高。     

Fragility analysis of curtain walls based on wind-borne debris considering wind environment

Increasing attention has been attached to the risk assessment and fragility analysis of envelopes of high-rise buildings subjected to the impact of wind-borne debris in hurricanes or typhoons. A probabilistic model of wind-borne debris is proposed in the present paper for risk assessment and fragility analysis of high-building curtain walls based on the numerical solution of three-dimensional flight trajectories of debris and the computational fluid dynamics simulation of local wind environment in a residential area. The influence of sources of randomness in the generation of debris, such as generated location, size, and initial attack angle, as well as local wind environment, on the location of debris impacting on the building curtain wall and the impact damage effect, are considered in the proposed model. The evolution of the probability characteristics of debris is driven by its physical flying behavior in the local wind environment, and the failure probability of each piece of glass of building curtain walls impacted by debris can be determined. Furthermore, a numerical algorithm is given for the fragility analysis under different incoming wind speeds, which can be used to determine the vulnerability and the fragility curve. Finally, two numerical examples for application to residential areas are provided. Results show that the proposed model can provide evaluation and prediction for wind disaster risk and fragility of high-rise buildings in urban areas.     

桥梁系统地震多维易损性分析

综合考虑地震地面运动以及性能极限状态的不确定性,提出了基于多地震需求参数分析的桥梁系统易损性评估方法,将易损性概念从一维扩展到多维。该方法首次提出服从多元对数正态分布的概率地震需求模型探讨桥梁体系各构件响应相关性,同时考虑各构件性能极限状态的相关性建立多维性能极限状态方程,确定结构失效域,通过MonteCarlo模拟计算系统多维地震易损性。以某一钢筋混凝土多跨连续梁高速公路桥为算例,通过非线性动力分析法获得最大响应样本,利用最大似然估计求得概率地震需求模型未知参数,计算体系多维易损性,并与构件易损性相比较。结果表明:桥梁体系多维易损性较构件易损性偏大,可避免用单一构件易损性代替系统易损性产生的非保守估计,预测结果更利于工程安全,为桥梁修复加固和交通系统可靠性分析提供理论依据。     

Component testing of a series system in a random mission

Components of a series system are tested in order to assure desired levels of system reliability during the mission. The components are nonidentical but they all fail exponentially with failure rates that depend on the mission performed. There is a given set of missions that the device can be assigned randomly with respect to a given probability distribution. This directly implies that the failure rates of the components depend on the specific mission that the device performs. The objective is to find an optimal component test plan. We will show that, with some extra effort, this rather complicated but realistic model can be handled using available results in semi-infinite linear programming and d.c. (difference of convex functions) programming.     

Optimal structure of fault-tolerant software systems

This paper considers software systems consisting of fault-tolerant components. These components are built from functionally equivalent but independently developed versions characterized by different reliability and execution time. Because of hardware resource constraints, the number of versions that can run simultaneously is limited. The expected system execution time and its reliability (defined as probability of obtaining the correct output within a specified time) strictly depend on parameters of software versions and sequence of their execution. The system structure optimization problem is formulated in which one has to choose software versions for each component and find the sequence of their execution in order to achieve the greatest system reliability subject to cost constraints. The versions are to be chosen from a list of available products. Each version is characterized by its reliability, execution time and cost.The suggested optimization procedure is based on an algorithm for determining system execution time distribution that uses the moment generating function approach and on the genetic algorithm. Both N-version programming and the recovery block scheme are considered within a universal model. Illustrated example is presented.     

Bullwhip and inventory variance in a closed loop supply chain

A simple dynamic model of a hybrid manufacturing/remanufacturing system is investigated. In particular we study an infinite horizon, continuous time, APIOBPCS (Automatic Pipeline Inventory and Order Based Production Control System) model. We use Åström’s method to quantify variance ratios in the closed loop supply chain. Specifically we highlight the effect of a combined “in-use” and remanufacturing lead-time and the return rate on the inventory variance and bullwhip produced by the ordering policy. Our results clearly show that a larger return rate leads to less bullwhip and less inventory variance in the plant producing new components. Thus returns can be used to absorb demand fluctuations to some extent. Longer remanufacturing and “in-use” lead-times have less impact at reducing inventory variance and bullwhip than shorter lead-times. We find that, within our specified system, that inventory variance and bullwhip is always less in supply chains with returns than supply chains without returns. We conclude by separating out the remanufacturing lead-time from the “in-use” lead-time and investigating its impact on our findings. We find that short remanufacturing lead-times do not qualitatively change our results.     

Seismic fragility analysis of electric substation equipment and structures

This paper presents a seismic fragility analysis of equipment and structures in an electric substation in the eastern United States, using Substation 21 in Memphis as an example. The fragility data of substation equipment and structures can be generated using actual earthquake damage data, experimental data, or analytical approaches. Seismic damage to electric facilities in the eastern United States is rare and information on dynamic testing of electric equipment similar to those installed in the substation is not available; thus, an analytical approach is used to perform the fragility analysis in this study. The fragility analysis results can reveal the expected performance of equipment and structures in the substation in the event of an earthquake. The fragility analysis results also provide the necessary data for the seismic performance evaluation of an entire electric substation and for a system reliability analysis of an electric system.