Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income

We study the residential demand for electricity and gas, working with nationwide household-level data that cover recent years, namely 1997–2007. Our dataset is a mixed panel/multi-year cross-sections of dwellings/households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States as of 2008. We estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand. We find strong household response to energy prices, both in the short and long term. From the static models, we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the − 0.860 to − 0.667 range, while the own price elasticity of gas demand is − 0.693 to − 0.566. These results are robust to a variety of checks. Contrary to earlier literature (Metcalf and Hassett, 1999; Reiss and White, 2005), we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat. The price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income, but the magnitude of this effect is small. These results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the United States, and with the figures used in current government agency practice. Our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated.     

Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship

This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long-run relationship. Indeed, cointegration between the common components of the underlying variables indicates that international developments dominate the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy consumption is price-inelastic. Causality tests indicate the presence of a bi-directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.     

Energy efficiency, rebound effects and the environmental Kuznets Curve

Technological change is one factor used to justify the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve, and technological improvements have been argued to be a key factor in mitigating the impacts of economic growth on environmental quality. In this paper we use a CGE model of the Scottish economy to consider the factors influencing the impacts of one form of technological change–improvements in energy efficiency–on absolute levels of CO2 emissions, on the carbon intensity of the economy (CO2 emissions relative to real GDP), and the per capita EKC relationship. These factors include the elasticity of substitution between energy and non-energy inputs, responses in the labour market and the structure of the economy. Our results demonstrate the key role played by the general equilibrium price elasticity of demand for energy, and the relative influence of different factors on this parameter.     

Ethanol demand under the flex-fuel technology regime in Brazil

This paper analyzes the characteristics of ethanol demand in the context of fuel mix diversification in Brazil. Currently, ethanol is the most important gasoline additive and alternative fuel consumed in Brazil and is responsible there for profound changes in the dynamics of fuel consumption. The diffusion of flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil symbolizes a new stage of ethanol expansion and is a central component of the increasing demand for fuel. Accordingly, we evaluate ethanol demand in Brazil following the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles using a cointegration approach and autoregressive distributed lag bounds tests over the period 2003–2010. The evidences confirm that during the last decade, ethanol has strengthened its position as both an independent fuel and a substitute for gasoline. There is also evidence that growth in the Brazilian automobile fleet based on flex-fuel technology is a major driving factor of long-run ethanol demand. Further, the dynamics of gasohol (mandatory blend of gasoline and ethanol) and ethanol prices operate in a symmetric manner over ethanol demand, thereby evidencing the increasing substitutability between these alternative fuels.     

Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach

This study applies a non-linear model, i.e. the recently developed panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, and takes into account the potential endogeneity biases to investigate the demand function of electricity for 24 OECD countries from the period 1978–2004. Our empirical results demonstrate that there is a strongly non-linear link among electricity consumption, real income, electricity price, and temperature, a result that is new to the literature. As real income rises, electricity consumption rapidly increases first, and after the level of real income exceeds approximately US$2500, its increasing rate turns slow down. An increase in electricity price has a negative or no influence on electricity consumption. Evidence of a U-shaped relationship between electricity consumption and temperature is supported, and the threshold value of temperature is approximately 53 °F, which is endogenously determined. Furthermore, the estimated elasticities of time dynamic indicate that electricity demand is income inelastic, price inelastic, and temperature inelastic. As time goes on, the absolute elasticities of electricity demand gradually decrease with respect to real GDP and electricity price, whereas they gradually increase with respect to temperature, suggesting that the impact of temperature on electricity demand is becoming more important in recent years.     

A methodology for calculating the levelized cost of electricity in nuclear power systems with fuel recycling

In this paper we show how the traditional definition of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be extended to alternative nuclear fuel cycles in which elements of the fuel are recycled. In particular, we define the LCOE for a cycle with full actinide recycling in fast reactors in which elements of the fuel are reused an indefinite number of times. To our knowledge, ours is the first LCOE formula for this cycle. Others have approached the task of evaluating this cycle using an ‘equilibrium cost’ concept that is different from a levelized cost. We also show how the LCOE implies a unique price for the recycled elements. This price reflects the ultimate cost of waste disposal postponed through the recycling, as well as other costs in the cycle. We demonstrate the methodology by estimating the LCOE for three classic nuclear fuel cycles: (i) the traditional Once-Through Cycle, (ii) a Twice-Through Cycle, and (iii) a Fast Reactor Recycle. Given our chosen input parameters, we show that the ‘equilibrium cost’ is typically larger than the levelized cost, and we explain why.     

Effects of technological learning and uranium price on nuclear cost: Preliminary insights from a multiple factors learning curve and uranium market modeling

This paper studies the effects of returns to scale, technological learning, i.e. learning-by-doing and learning-by-searching, and uranium price on the prospects of nuclear cost decrease. We use an extended learning curve specification, named multiple factors learning curve (MFLC). In a first stage, we estimate a single MFLC. In a second stage, we estimate the MFLC under the framework of simultaneous system of equations which takes into account the uranium supply and demand. This permits not only to enhance the reliability of the estimation by incorporating the uranium price formation mechanisms in the MFLC via the price variable, but also to give preliminary insights about uranium supply and demand behaviors and the associated effects on the nuclear expansion.Results point out that the nuclear cost has important prospects for decrease via capacity expansion, i.e. learning-by-doing effects. In contrast, they show that the learning-by-searching as well as the scale effects have a limited effect on the cost decrease prospects. Conversely, results also show that uranium price exerts a positive and significant effect on nuclear cost, implying that when the uranium price increases, the nuclear power generation cost decreases. Since uranium is characterized by important physical availability, and since it represents only a minor part in the total nuclear cost, we consider that in a context of increasing demand for nuclear energy the latter result can be explained by the fact that the positive learning effects on the cost of nuclear act in a way to dissipate the negative ones that an increase in uranium price may exert. Further, results give evidence of important inertia in the supply and demand sides as well as evidence of slow correlation between the uranium market and oil market which may limit the inter-fuels substituability effects, that is, nuclear capacity expansion and associated learning-by-doing benefits.     

Residential energy consumption across different population groups: comparative analysis for Latino and non-Latino households in USA

Residential energy cost is an important part of the household budget and could vary significantly across different population groups in many countries. In the United States, many studies have analyzed household fuel consumption by fuel type, including electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and by geographic areas. Past research has also demonstrated significant variation in residential energy use across various population groups, including white, black, and Latino. However, our research shows that residential energy demand by fuel type for Latinos, the fastest growing population group, has not been explained by economic and non-economic factors in any statistical model in public domain. The purpose of this paper was to discuss energy demand and expenditure patterns for Latino and non-Latino households in hhe United States as a case example of analyzing residential energy consumption across different population groups in a country. The linear expenditure system model developed by Stone and Geary is the basis of the statistical model developed to explain fuel consumption and expenditures for Latino households. For comparison, the models are also developed for non-Latino, black, and non-black households. These models estimate energy consumption of and expenditures for electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and LPG by various households at the national level. Significant variations in the patterns of these fuels consumption for Latinos and non-Latinos are highlighted. The model methodology and results of this research should be useful to energy policymakers in government and industry, researches, and academicians who are concerned with economic and energy issues related to various population groups in their country.     

Indices for comparing greenhouse gas emissions: integrating science and economics

Abatement of greenhouse gases is a key element of possible policy responses to global warming. Comprehensive abatement strategies view the greenhouse abatement issue as one involving multiple gases and not CO₂ alone. These strategies require the formulation of greenhouse gas indices that will allow for an evaluation of the trade offs involved. This paper uses an optimal control methodology to determine greenhouse gas indices. Analytical expressions for the indices are determined using cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness framings. An integrated framework that includes the relevant scientific and economic processes is used to evaluate indices for methane, nitrous oxide and HCFC-22. Additionally, the optimal control problem for a two gas abatement strategy involving methane and carbon dioxide is numerically solved. In the case of methane, indices were calculated for direct as well as indirect radiative forcing effects. In addition to the numerical results, the analysis allows us to make several qualitative observations regarding the dependence of trace gas indices on the scientific and economic uncertainties involved in climate change policy.     

Supply of renewable energy sources and the cost of EU climate policy

What are the excess costs of a separate 20% target for renewable energy as a part of the EU climate policy for 2020? We answer this question using a computable general equilibrium model, WorldScan, which has been extended with a bottom-up module of the electricity sector. The model set-up makes it possible to base the calibration directly on available estimates of costs and capacity potentials for renewable energy sources. In our base case simulation, the costs of EU climate policy with the renewables target are 6% higher than those of a policy without this target. The uncertainty in this estimate is considerable, however, and depends on our assumptions about the availability of low-cost renewable energy: the initial cost level, the steepness of the supply curves and share of renewable energy in the baseline. Within the range we explore, the excess costs vary from zero (when the target is not a binding constraint) to 32% (when the cost progression and the initial cost disadvantage for renewable energy are high and its initial share is low).     

Modeling choice of fuelwood source among rural households in Malawi: A multinomial probit analysis

This paper addresses two questions: what determines household's choice of fuelwood source and, what are the environmental consequences of fuelwood collection choices? We address these questions by estimating the multinomial probit model using survey data for households surrounding Chimaliro and Liwonde forest reserves in Malawi. After controlling for heterogeneity among households, we find strong substitution opportunities across fuelwood collection sources. Attributes of the fuelwood sources (size and species composition) and distance to the sources are the most important determinants of fuelwood choice. Further results show that customary managed forests generate environmental benefits by reducing pressure on both plantation forests and forest reserves. These findings support the need to strengthen community-based institutions to manage local forest resources.     

Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an application to the demand for coal in mainland China

In this paper robust elasticity estimates of coal demand for China are derived using annual data 1953–1992. In so doing, we illustrate the use of a powerful yet practically convenient and recently developed modelling procedure devised by Stock and Watson (known as Dynamic OLS (DOLS)), who provide evidence, based on Monte Carlo simulations, of this estimator being superior in small samples compared to a number of alternative estimators, as well as being able not only to accommodate higher orders of integration but also to account for possible simultaneity within regressors of a potential demand system. Furthermore, cointegration and error-correction methods are employed to derive short-run price and income elasticities. Estimated results are quite robust not only in terms of statistical prowess but also in terms of economic intuition and indicate that, over the long run, both price and income elasticities are close to unity. While short-run price and income elasticities are less (in absolute value) than their long-run counterparts, there seems to be some divergence in short-run parameters from a subsample analysis. Overall, results seem to imply that for China, coal consumption should remain relatively constant as future modernization strategies for economic development are pursued. In addition, the study has clear methodological implications for estimating the long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function in general, and in a wide variety of fields in future applied research.     

Productivity growth and biased technological change in hydroelectric dams

This paper analyses productivity growth and the nature of technical change in a sample of Portuguese hydroelectric generating plants over the period 2001 to 2008. In a first step, we employ the Luenberger productivity indicator to estimate and decompose productivity change. A Malmquist productivity index is also used for a comparative purpose. The results paint a picture of mixed productivity performance in the Portuguese energy sector. The first decomposition underlines that, in average, the productivity variation is explained by the technological change. Then, in a second step, we analyse the nature of this technical change by using the recent concept of parallel neutrality (Briec et al., 2006). We observe a global shift in the best practice frontier as well as in the evidence of input bias in technical change.     

Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Evidence from quantile cointegrating regression

Since most real decisions depend upon current market states or whether it is advantageous to the participants themselves, this paper revisits the relationship between spot and futures oil prices of West Texas Intermediate covering 1986 to 2009 with an innovative approach named quantile cointegration. Different to previous perspectives, we target the issues of cointegrating relationships, causalities, and market efficiency based on different market states under different maturities of oil futures. In our empirical analysis, except for market efficiency, long-run cointegrating relationships and causalities between spot and futures oil prices have significant differentials among futures maturities and the performances of spot oil markets. Furthermore, the response of spot prices to shocks in 1-month futures oil prices is much steeper in high spot prices than in low spot prices. This phenomenon is consistent with the prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979), in that the value function is generally steeper for losses than for gains.     

Consumers' preference for renewable energy in the southwest USA

The southwestern part of the US has abundant supply of renewable energy resources but little is known about the consumers' preferences for renewable energy in this region. This paper investigates households' willingness to pay for a renewable energy program in a southwestern state, New Mexico (NM). Using the contingent valuation method, we provide different scenarios that include provision of 10% and 20% of renewable energy supply, to elicit households' willingness to pay (WTP) for the renewable energy. We estimate the WTP for specific shares of renewable energy in the total energy mix as it is a key factor in affecting the price of the energy portfolio in the market. The survey design also allows us to check the scope sensitivity of renewable energy which can help guide the future renewable energy policy. We hope results from this study will offer useful insights to energy regulators and utility companies and help them increase the share of renewable energy supply.     

Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach

Previous literature on volatility links between food and energy prices is scarce and mainly based on parametric approaches. This article examines these links by using a semiparametric GARCH model recently proposed by Long et al. (2011), which is essentially a nonparametric correction of the parametric conditional covariance function. The analysis focuses on price links between crude oil, ethanol and sugar prices in Brazil. Results suggest strong volatility links between the prices studied. Parametric approximations of the conditional covariance matrix may lead to misleading results that can be improved upon by using nonparametric techniques.     

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

State governments have taken the lead on U.S. energy and climate policy. It is not yet clear, however, whether state energy policy portfolios can generate results in a similar magnitude or manner to their presumed carbon mitigation potential. This article seeks to address this lack of policy evidence and contribute empirical insights on the carbon mitigation effects of state energy portfolios within the U.S. electricity sector. Using a dynamic, long-term electricity dispatch model with U.S. power plant, utility, and transmission and distribution data between 2010 and 2030, this analysis builds a series of state-level policy portfolio scenarios and performs a comparative scenario analysis. Results reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The difference in decarbonization potential between isolated state policies and larger, more coordinated policy efforts is due in large part to carbon leakage, which is the export of carbon intensive fossil fuel-based electricity across state lines. Results also confirm that a carbon price of $50/metric ton CO₂e can generate substantial carbon savings. Although both policy options – an energy policy portfolio or a carbon price – are effective at reducing carbon emissions in the present analysis, neither is as effective alone as when the two strategies are combined.     

Random preferences towards bioenergy environmental externalities: A case study of woody biomass based electricity in the Southern United States

This paper contrasts alternate methodological approaches of investigating public preferences, the random parameter logit (RPL) where tastes and preferences of respondents are assumed to be heterogeneous and the conditional logit (CL) approach where tastes and preferences remain fixed for individuals. We conducted a choice experiment to assess preferences for woody biomass based electricity in Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia. Reduction of CO₂ emissions and improvement of forest habitat by decreasing risk of wildfires and pest outbreaks were presented to respondents as attributes of using green electricity. The results indicate that heterogeneous preferences might be a better fit for assessing preferences for green electricity. All levels of both attributes were positive contributors to welfare but they were no statistically significant. Respondents expressed a positive mean marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for each attribute level. The total WTP for green electricity per kilowatt hour was $0.049 kWh or $40.5 per capita year^{− 1} when converted into future total annual expenditures.     

A dynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity consumption-growth nexus

This study examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 88 countries categorized into four panels based on the World Bank income classification (high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income) within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1990–2006. The Larsson et al. (2001) panel cointegration test indicates there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force for the high, upper middle, and lower middle income country panels. The results from the panel vector error correction models reveal (1) bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run for the high income and upper-middle income country panels; (2) unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth in the short-run, but bidirectional causality in the long-run for the lower-middle income country panel; and (3) unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth for the low income country panel.     

The political economy of energy regulation in OECD countries

This paper examines the effect of government ideology, political factors and globalization on energy regulation in electricity and gas industries using the bias-corrected least square dummy variable model in a panel of 23 OECD countries over the period of 1975–2007. We find that left-wing governments promote regulation in gas and electricity sectors. Also, less politically fragmented institutions contribute to deregulation of gas and electricity industries. Long tenures of incumbent government have limited impact on regulation in electricity sector, while it is associated with an increase in regulation of gas sector. Further, we find that higher political constraints and more globalized countries lead to deregulation in electricity and gas sectors. We discover that economic and social integration are the forces that promote deregulation in the gas industry, whereas political integration advance deregulation in the electricity industry. We emphasize that political economy factors are important determinants of energy regulation.