洪水风险区主流线自动辨识模型

提出了基于数字地图进行洪水风险区主流线自动辨识的结构模型和数学模型,并用实例进行了验证。     

洪水管理--一种人与自然和谐共存的策略

洪水是自然的产物，其造成原因既有自然的，也有人为的。过去很长时间里，人类已形成了控制洪水的观念，特别是要依靠人工工程来控制洪水。但是，事实证明，人类是无法完全驾驭控制洪水的，而人类这种控制洪水的努力，却造成了更多的负面影响。近年来，许多国家都在通过洪水灾害的分析，反思着防洪治水的策略与措施。     

英国的洪水保险

英国虽然不是一个洪水灾害严重的国家，但仍有许多地区时常遭受洪水灾害的影响，加世纪40年代末英国政府开始重视防洪工程的建设。60年代初发生几次大洪水之后，政府在加强防洪工程措施的同时，开始重视非工程措施，最重要的一个措施就是发挥保险的作用。为此，60年代初政府与保险行业协会签订了一份“协定”，该协定规定了政府和保险业在应对洪水灾害中所承担的责任，即政府承诺继续建立有效的防洪工程体系，以使保险损失控制在可以承受的范围之内；保险行业保证向位于任何洪水风险区域的居民和小型企业提供财产洪水保险，以便在出现洪水损失的情况下给予补偿。     

珠海市洪水成因及其防治措施探讨

通过对珠海市历史洪水的调查,分析珠海市洪水的形成原因,同时根据国外已有成功防洪减灾工程及非工程措施的实施与管理经验,初步探讨适合珠海市特点的城市防洪减灾综合措施,重点研究适宜的非工程措施。     

江西暴雨洪水及防灾减灾

江西属亚热带季风区，暴雨多集中于４月～７月上旬，４月～６月降水量占全年的一半，且暴雨时空分布差异大，各河洪水差异也大，水旱灾害频繁。对于洪水灾害，除采用工程措施防洪抗洪外，利用非工程措施来减少洪灾损失，如采用水文情报预报等，也能达到投资少，收效大的结果。     

江西洪水的启示

今夏,江西洪情日紧一日,终于酿成了一场洪水灾害。 5月末雨幕揭开,到6月暴雨几乎轮番不停,全省平均降雨量达518毫米,其中赣东北地区为764毫米,分别为正常年份同期的2倍和2.5倍,创建国以来最高纪录。江河湖库水位猛涨,6月末赣东北的乐安河、信江和赣中的袁河分别超过历史上最高洪水位0.28米、     

大清河洪水特征及防洪对策

大清河系位于海河流域中部,流域面积43060km2,占海河流域总面积的13.34％,来水量约占海河流域大水年份最大30天洪水总量的30％。大清河系中河北省面积34683km2,占流域总面积的80％。河北省境内主要行洪河道5条、大型水库6座、中型水库8座、洼淀     

黑龙江省超标准洪水减灾对策探讨

对黑龙江省防洪现状进行了分析。目前黑龙江省防洪的主要措施仍以工程措施为主,就现有技术水平、经济实力来讲,还无法抵御超标准洪水能力。因此,提出当江河发生超标准洪水时,只有正确运用工程措施和非工程措施,才能减少洪涝灾害的损失。     

Integrated Risk Management of Flood Disasters in Metropolitan Areas of China

A review of flood disasters in China during the past five decades has shown a steady increase in the disaster toll due to rapid urbanization, especially through landscape urbanization in metropolitan areas. This paper illustrates the relationship and the interactions between urbanization in the metropolis and the process of flood disaster changes. Furthermore, a solution is proposed to alleviate fluctuations in flood disasters through the adjustment of the land use structure and pattern in metropolitan areas. Based on the solution, the authors conclude that the proportion of ‘ecological land’ in metropolitan areas should not be lower than 40%. The proportion of water and wetlands in ecological land should not be lower than their area in the years of average precipitation and water level. This means that in the Pearl River Metropolitan Area and the Yangtze River Delta Metropolitan Area, the proportion of water and wetlands in ecological land should be more than 25%. Moreover, the authors propose constituting a regional management mode which combines government, society, and insurance companies for controlling flood risk in metropolitan areas.     

洪水风险管理和洪水资源化浅议

洪水风险管理是治水方略的新发展 ,洪水资源化是洪水风险管理的重要内容。洪水资源化存在的风险主要有 :水库应急泄洪风险 ;垮坝风险 ;动用蓄滞洪区的风险 ;引洪水补源和灌溉时 ,缩短灌区灌溉设施寿命的风险 ;洪水上滩时污染滩区的风险。对此 ,提出了弱化风险的管理对策 :加强防洪调度 ,提高水库调度技术 ;加强水沙污的统一调度 ;加强工程管理 ,消除病险水库 ;加强信息化建设 ,及时获知水情信息 ;建立蓄滞洪区的洪水保险机制和风险补偿机制     

Identification of Critical Flood Prone Areas in Data-Scarce and Ungauged Regions: A Comparison of Three Data Mining Models

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters with socio-economic consequences. Thus, preparation of the flood prone areas (FPA) map is essential for flood disaster management, and for planning further development activities. The main goal of this study is to investigate new applications of the evidential belief function (EBF), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT) models for identifying the FPA in the Galikesh region, Iran. This research was conducted in three main stages such as data preparation, flood susceptibility mapping using EBF, RF, and BRT models and validation of constructed models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. At first, a flood inventory map was prepared using documentary sources of Iranian Water Resources Department (IWRD) and extensive field surveys. In total, 63 flood locations were identified in the study area. Of these, 47 (75%) floods were randomly selected as training/model building and the remaining 16 (25%) cases were used for the validation purposes. The flood conditioning factors considered in the study area are altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, topographic wetness index, plan curvature, geology, landuse, distance from rivers, drainage density, and soil texture. Subsequently, the FPA maps were prepared using EBF, RF, and BRT models in a GIS environment. Finally, the results were validated using ROC curve and area under the curve (AUC) analysis. From the analysis, it was seen that the EBF (AUC?=?78.67%) and BRT models (AUC?=?78.22%) performed better than RF model (AUC?=?73.33%). Therefore, the resultant FPA maps can be useful for researchers and planner in flood mitigation strategies.     

三峡工程实施洪水管理体系探讨

洪水是水资源的重要组成部分,洪水资源化是洪水管理的重要内涵.在目前中国水资源严重短缺的情况下,洪水资源利用最大化尤其重要.文中依据三峡工程的任务、运用特点、上游及防洪对象的洪水特性,对工程实施洪水管理体系的必要性、可行性、实现途径进行了分析探讨.     

Changes of Flood Control Situations and Adjustments of Flood Management Strategies in China

Abstract

Flooding was recognized as the severest natural hazard in ancient China. Chinese people have accumulated abundant experiences in fighting against flood disasters for millennia. In the past half century, flood control capacity has improved due to the large-scale construction of a flood control engineering system, which plays an important role in ensuring the rapid socio-economic development. However, because of climatic fluctuation and human activities, significant changes to the flood control situation are taking place in China. In the new century, the flood control system has to face a series of challenges, and the flood management strategies must be adjusted accordingly.     

中国防洪形势的演变与治水方略的调整

在特有的地理气候环境下，中国自古就有“五害之属水为大”的认识。中国人民在长期与洪水的斗争中积累了丰富的经验，尤其是近50年来，大规模防洪工程体系的建设，使得防洪能力有了显的提高，对社会经济的快速发展起到了重要的保障作用，然而，受气候波动与人类活动的影响，中国的防洪形势正在发生显的变化，新世纪中，防洪体系面临新的挑战，治水方略必须作出相应的战略性的调整。     

洪水保险在洪水资源管理中的应用研究

洪水保险作为洪水管理的一种重要手段越来越受到人们的重视,针对我国现行的社会制度、水利防洪工程现状、经济社会发展趋势、保险业发展概况,基于对国内外洪水保险策略的分析,应用经济学、保险学、系统工程等理论,结合洪水资源管理的基本特点,从实用的角度,对我国开展洪水保险的时机、方式、体制等方面进行研究,建立洪水保险的期望效用模型,该模型能够有效的揭示被保险者与保险者的效用属性和价值取向,具有一定的理论指导和应用价值。最后提出了适合我国国情和社会运行机制的洪水保险思路框架和若干建议。     

我国洪旱灾害风险管理

长江河道采砂许可行政审批工作，事关政府形象，也直接关系到采砂者的经济利益乃至地方经济的发展。是社会关注的焦点，也是水行政主管部门的管理难点。审批工作只要依法行政，讲求科学，并公开、公平、公正地进行阳光操作，就会得到令政府和人民满意的结果。     

论我国现代水利中的防汛体系建设

文章从防御体系的建设、高科技手段的运用、社会教育和保障机制的建立以及防汛抢险的组织机制和法律保障等多方面，阐述了现代水利中的防汛体系建设，同时提出了一些新的思路和观点。     

浅析我国人力资源管理

分析了我国人力资源管理的现状和问题,提出了提高我国人力资源管理水平的具体措施。