International energy R&D spillovers and the economics of greenhouse gas atmospheric stabilization

It is now widely recognized that technological change will play a substantial role in reducing GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy-related technological change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption capacity is also endogenous in the model. The basic questions are as follows. Do knowledge spillovers enhance energy-related technological innovation in different regions of the world? Does the speed of innovation increase? Or do free-riding incentives prevail and international spillovers crowd out domestic R&D efforts? What is the role of domestic absorption capacity and of policies designed to enhance it? Do greenhouse gas stabilization costs drop in the presence of international technological spillovers? The new specification of the WITCH model presented in this paper enables us to answer these questions. Our analysis shows that international knowledge spillovers tend to increase free-riding incentives and decrease the investments in energy R&D. The strongest cuts in energy R&D investments are recorded among High Income countries, where international knowledge flows crowd out domestic R&D efforts. The overall domestic pool of knowledge, and thus total net GHG stabilization costs, remain largely unaffected. International spillovers, however, are also an important policy channel. We therefore analyze the implication of a policy-mix in which climate policy is combined with a technology policy designed to enhance absorption capacity in Low Income countries. Significant positive impacts on the costs of stabilizing GHG concentrations are singled out. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that High Income countries are more responsive than Low Income countries to changes in the parameters. Additional empirical research efforts should thus be focused on the former.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of R&D on solar cells in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to validate plan of R&D on solar cells in the (New-) Sunshine Program of Japan by using cost-effectiveness analysis and to demonstrate usefulness of the analysis for R&D planning. Based on the analysis, R&D goals and/or allocation of R&D expenditure of multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) might not be appropriate after FY1996. And R&D expenditure for solar cells might be decided without forecasting increase of the mc-Si solar cell production by the subsidization programs.     

Evidence from RD&D spending for renewable energy sources in the EU

This paper aims at giving a critical picture of the expenditures in research, development and demonstration (RD&D) for renewable energy sources (RES) in the EU-15 Member States. By providing this objective a number of performance indicators are proposed, evaluated and discussed. RD&D performance is measured in terms of RD&D intensity, e.g. spending per unit of GDP, as well as with regard to RD&D output such as the number of patents in the different sectors of technology.The evaluation of the funds spent can help the rationalisation of the efforts made to support renewable energy RD&D and facilitate the joint investments in RD&D activities. This perspective is essential for facing the increasing competition that the EU industry meets in the international markets for RES. The knowledge and rationalisation of the RD&D spending in research activities is the starting point for a common approach to strengthen the EU industry in this field of expected strong growth.     

Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy.     

New sunshine project and new trend of PV R&D program in Japan

The development and application of new energy resources seems to promise significant effects in tackling the problems of reassembling Japan's feeble energy supply structure and of the damages done to global environment by acid rain, carbon dioxide and its offspring known as greenhouse effect. Now, the development of new energy is promoted under the ‘New Sunshine Program” started in 1993, following “Sunshine Project” started in 1974. As a result of technical development and legislative supports, the introduction and dissemination of photovoltaic (PV) power generation has been promoted recently. To promote new energy introduction in Japan including PV power generation, a “Basic Guidelines for New Energy Introduction” was decided upon in a December 1994 Cabinet meeting. In the “Guidelines” a policy was formulated whereby the introductory targets for PV power generation were set at 400MW in 2000 and 4,600MW in 2010. The state, local public bodies, and the private sector are cooperatively to promote accelerated introduction.Since its founding in October 1980, NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) has, as the central organization in Japan for development of new energy including PV power generation, strived to meet this obligation, with assistance from various spheres. The thesis is outline of the “New Sunshine Program” and Japan's contribution in the technological development and dissemination of PV power generation being made on the initiative of NEDO.     

Status and prospects of photovoltaics in Korea

The Korean National Photovoltaic (PV) Project was initiated in October 1989 to develop technologies for the generation of economically competitive electric power by PV systems. It consists of three stages which will continue until the year 2001. The technical goals and costs targets are directed at solar cell, balance of systems and system application. The objectives are: the development of PV technology through research activities, transfer of developed technology to the industries and diffusion of PV through demonstration projects to the end users. This paper reviews the long-term plan and recent trends in the R&D technology, and shows examples of PV diffusion, demonstration projects and market outlook in Korea. Some activities designed to promote collaboration with foreign countries are also discussed.     

UK renewable energy strategy The need for longer-term support

The UK renewable energy R&D programme is currently being cut back. The ‘near market’ technologies that it has identified are expected to be taken over by the private sector, with the support of the NFFO cross-subsidy. This paper explores the implication of this strategy for the more novel, less developed, renewables, which are unlikely to benefit from the NFFO. It argues that, as longer-term environmental costings are factored into the assessment, the currently less economically attractive technologies could become strategically important. In this situation, it is suggested, the cut backs in research would seem unwise.     

Photovoltaics in Slovakia—status and conditions for development within integrating Europe

Photovoltaics (PV) in Slovakia has a history of 20 years. While irradiance conditions are comparable with those of European countries with strongly developed PV, the applications and the results are very different. The first steps in the PV research were carried out in the 1980s at university and academic level. But in spite of this, the results of PV applications and installations has been poor. At present just over 10 kW of PV stand alone installations have been installed. At both, the Slovak University of Technology and Slovak Academy of Sciences, research activities were focussed on monocrystalline silicon, amorphous silicon, gallium arsenide PV cells, investigation of degradation processes in solar cells and modules. Barriers to supporting and funding the development of PV R&D and PV market in Slovakia result from technological, economical and regulatory causes. The possibilities for the future development of PV in Slovakia are closely connected with the cooperation within RTD activities of New Member States, Candidate States (NMSaCS) and EU-15 Member States and in more appropriate energy policy in Slovakia.     

Measurement of solar energy radiation at Nsukka and the determination of the regression coefficients

Solar radiation for Nsukka, latitude 6.8°N, longitude 7.35°E, located 488 m above sea level, was collected for 11 yr using a Gunn-Bellani instrument, and the data obtained were restandardized using an Eppley precision pyranometer. The sunshine data during this period were also obtained using a Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder.

It is observed that the insolation level for the month of November during the period of measurement is the highest, with an average of 17.50 MJ/m². The level of insolation during this month varied sinusoidally with an amplitude of 3.84 MJ/m². The clearness index, k_T, is 0.53, and there is an indication that the atmosphere was persistently laden with dust. August has the least insolation level with an average of 11.86 MJ/m² and a k_T of 0.32. The atmosphere during this month was always covered with cloud. This work confirmed the assertion by Awachie and co-workers that dust and haze attenuate insolation less than cloud cover. The Nsukka weather is rated to be heavily overcast, and over 90% of the total solar radiation is diffuse, with an average k_T value of 0.43.

The average regression coefficients a and b for Nsukka are 0.21 and 0.51 respectively. These values do not agree with the general relations and values already quoted by some workers. The predicted insolation values for Nsukka using these coefficients in the Angstrom type of formula agree with the measured data with an error of 0.7%. This level of accuracy compares well with those obtained when the insolation values are predicted for each year using the values of a and b deduced for the respective year. Furthermore, there was an indication that the level of accuracy obtained using average values of a and b might increase if a longer period is considered. Thus, with reliable average values of a and b obtained over a reasonably long period, and knowledge of the bright sunshine hours, the measurement of solar radiation in a location, for design purposes, may not be necessary.     

Resource allocation model for planning R&D on solar cells

R&D planning is important for promoting R&D effectively and efficiently. The authors formulate planning of R&D on solar cells as an optimal resource allocation problem by using mathematical programming. The optimal resource allocation model based on this formulation includes technological progress submodels of solar cells and production and market submodels of solar cells. This model is expected not only to make clear the validity of R&D strategy on solar cells in the past, but also to give us the optimal plan of R&D on solar cells in the future.     

Quality control and estimation of global solar radiation in China

Measurements of surface radiation in China are too sparse to meet demand for scientific research and engineering applications. Moreover, the radiation data often include erroneous and questionable values though preliminary quality-check has been done before the data release. Therefore, quality control of radiation data is often a prerequisite for using these data. In this study, a set of quality-check procedures were implemented to control the quality of the solar radiation measurements at 97 stations in China. A hybrid model for estimating global solar radiation was then evaluated against the controlled data. The results show that the model can estimate the global radiation with accuracy of MBE less than 1.5 MJ m⁻² and RMSE less than 2.8 MJ m⁻² for daily radiation and RMSE less than 2.0 MJ m⁻² for monthly-mean daily radiation at individual stations over most of China except at a few stations where unsatisfactory estimates were possibly caused by severe air pollution or too dense clouds. The MBE averaged over all stations are about 0.7 MJ m⁻² and RMSE about 2.0 MJ m⁻² for daily radiation and RMSE about 1.3 MJ m⁻² for monthly-mean daily radiation. Finally, this model was used to fill data gaps and to expand solar radiation data set using routine meteorological station data in China. This data set would substantially contribute to some radiation-related scientific studies and engineering applications in China.     

The european community second energy R&D programme. A review of performance

The performance of the European Community Second Energy Research and Development Programme is reviewed and some of the important developments are highlighted. The contributions that have been made in the various areas of interest, energy conservation, solar energy, hydrogen, geothermal energy and energy systems analysis, are discussed and examples are given of the advances that have been made.     

Estimation of horizontal diffuse solar radiation with measured daily data in China

Three most widely used diffuse radiation models are calibrated using the daily data between January 1 1994 and December 31 1998 from 16 stations all over China. The second-degree polynomial relationship between R_D/R_G and n/N (Iqbal model) is suitable for diffuse radiation estimation in China. The averaged correlation coefficient R² is 0.84 and the maximum value is 0.93 at the 16 stations, and the Iqbal model works better in the eastern part of China than in the west. The A.A. El-Sebaii model could not be used to estimate diffused radiation accurately in China, with an averaged R²=0.47. The Liu and Jordan model could also be used for diffuse radiation estimation in China, and the averaged value of R² and parameter X₀ is 0.81 and 0.233, respectively. There is an evident linear relationship among the parameters X₀, a and b of the Liu and Jordan model.     

Optimal policy of energy innovation in developing countries: Development of solar PV in Iran

The purpose of this study is to apply managerial economics and methods of decision analysis to study the optimal pattern of innovation activities for development of new energy technologies in developing countries. For this purpose, a model of energy research and development (R&D) planning is developed and it is then linked to a bottom-up energy-systems model. The set of interlinked models provide a comprehensive analytical tool for assessment of energy technologies and innovation planning taking into account the specific conditions of developing countries. An energy-system model is used as a tool for the assessment and prioritization of new energy technologies. Based on the results of the technology assessment model, the optimal R&D resources allocation for new energy technologies is estimated with the help of the R&D planning model. The R&D planning model is based on maximization of the total net present value of resulting R&D benefits taking into account the dynamics of technological progress, knowledge and experience spillovers from advanced economies, technology adoption and R&D constraints. Application of the set of interlinked models is explained through the analysis of the development of solar PV in Iranian electricity supply system and then some important policy insights are concluded.     

Present status of r&d for hydrogen production from water in Japan

At present, big projects for promoting the development of new energy resources are being conducted on a national scale by both the Ministry of International Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Education in Japan. This paper outlines the state of the art in hydrogen production research supported by these projects. Results of electrolysis and thermochemical methods are described and the target required to implement the hydrogen society is discussed.     

Innovation in climate policy models: Implementing lessons from the economics of R&D

Only recently have economists considered the effect of induced innovation in climate policy models. One reason is that, until recently, empirical evidence of the magnitude of such effects was unavailable. Drawing on my experiences with empirical studies on innovation and from modeling the climate change problem, in this paper, I present key lessons from the empirical literature on innovation and environmental policy, and discuss how much of the variation in results found in the modeling literature can be explained by differences in implementing (or failing to implement) these lessons into climate models. The paper concludes with a discussion of future research needs, focusing on a framework for improving the modeling of technology diffusion in climate change models.     

Current status and future prospects for the PVMaT project

The goals of the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Technology project (PVMaT) are to help the US PV industry improve photovoltaic manufacturing processes and accelerate cost reductions for PV components and systems. PVMaT is in its ninth year of implementation, and subcontracts with industry have been completed from four solicitations for R&D on manufacturing process problems. We are in the second year of subcontracts for a fifth PVMaT solicitation.Based on the latest (1998) data from ten PVMaT industrial participants, the average direct manufacturing cost for these producers has been reduced by 29% – from $4.08 to $2.91 per peak watt since 1992 – and there has also been a more than five-fold increase in manufacturing capacity – from 13.1 to 73.3 MW. We believe R&D on manufacturing processes contributes significantly to expeditious reductions in PV manufacturing costs, and we identify areas for future R&D.     

The operation of a large multinational energy R&D programme

The energy research and development programmes of the European Community are reviewed. The mechanisms for financing R&D projects are discussed and emphasis is placed on the role of the Commission. The results of the programmes to date are analysed both in relation to their original objectives and in terms of the R&D and Energy strategies recently developed by the Commission.     

The technical,geographical, and economic feasibility for solar energy to supply the energy needs of the US

So far, solar energy has been viewed as only a minor contributor in the energy mixture of the US due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent drastic cost reductions in the production of photovoltaics (PV) pave the way for enabling this technology to become cost competitive with fossil fuel energy generation. We show that with the right incentives, cost competitiveness with grid prices in the US (e.g., 6–10 US¢/kWh) can be attained by 2020. The intermittency problem is solved by integrating PV with compressed air energy storage (CAES) and by extending the thermal storage capability in concentrated solar power (CSP). We used hourly load data for the entire US and 45-year solar irradiation data from the southwest region of the US, to simulate the CAES storage requirements, under worst weather conditions. Based on expected improvements of established, commercially available PV, CSP, and CAES technologies, we show that solar energy has the technical, geographical, and economic potential to supply 69% of the total electricity needs and 35% of the total (electricity and fuel) energy needs of the US by 2050. When we extend our scenario to 2100, solar energy supplies over 90%, and together with other renewables, 100% of the total US energy demand with a corresponding 92% reduction in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions compared to the 2005 levels.     

The UK solar energy resource and the impact of climate change

Solar energy use in the UK is increasing dramatically, providing both heat energy and generation of electricity. This trend is expected to continue due to solar technologies becoming cheaper and more readily available along with low carbon government legislation such as the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) and Feed in Tariffs (FiTs) supporting solar energy deployment. However, the effects of climate change on the solar resource remain largely unstudied. Climate change affects cloud cover characteristics and consequently directly affects the performance of solar energy technologies.This paper investigates the UK solar irradiation resource for both the present and future climates.The present solar irradiation level was assessed through the conversion of 30 years of observed historical monthly average sunshine duration data. The method and results are validated by comparing the converted solar irradiation levels to actual solar irradiance measurements at weather stations with significant historical records of solar irradiance data.The impact of climate change is investigated across different regions of the UK by using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections.We find that the current average UK annual solar resource is 101.2 Wm⁻², ranging from 128.4 Wm⁻² in the south of England to 71.8 Wm⁻² in the northwest of Scotland. It seems likely that climate change will increase the average resource in the south of the UK, while marginally decreasing it in the Northwest. The overall effect is a mean increase of the UK solar resource, however it will have greater seasonal variability and discrepancies between geographical regions will be reinforced.