Individual expectations for group decision processes: Evidence for overestimation of majority influence.

Individuals experience numerous group decision situations during their lives. As a result, they may develop accurate expectations of the social processes and effects of context on group decision situations. Four decision-making situations were constructed that were expected to elicit different group decision processes. Individuals were presented with these hypothetical scenarios in which group size and the preferences of group members varied systematically. Participants’ expectations were elicited from their predictions regarding which alternative the group would choose on the basis of the information presented. The comparison of these judgments with the predicted decision distributions derived from models of group decision making showed that participants had a general sensitivity to changes in contexts, but that they overestimated the effect of the majority opinion on the final decisions. Individuals may have general notions of how groups make decisions but are less sensitive to the subtleties involved in the process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

My imagination versus your feelings: Can personal affective forecasts be improved by knowing other peoples’ emotions?

A proposed remedy for biased affective forecasts is to base judgments on the actual feelings of people (surrogates) currently experiencing the event, rather than using imagination which conjures an inaccurate vision of the future. Gilbert et al. (2009) forced people to use surrogate reports by withholding all event information, resulting in better predictions. However, in life surrogate information rarely supplants event information—can people effectively integrate both types of information into their judgments? In five studies, respondents predicted the impact of a health state on their own happiness. Respondents incorporated surrogate information into their judgments both in the presence and absence of event information. However, they inappropriately discounted other people’s experiences as a valid predictor of their own—particularly in the presence of event information—and imagined their happiness would be different to surrogates’ happiness. Excluding preexisting event knowledge, changing the size of the surrogate sample, or increasing the size of the response scale did not alter the adjustment. Although surrogate information improved affective forecasts, its influence was diminished by the presence of event information. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Positive Reactions to Working in Groups in a Study of Group and Individual Goal Decision Making.

The authors explored group members' positive reactions to working in groups that performed a card-sorting task for which they set goals. They also tested predictions regarding observed differences between the goal decisions of groups and individuals for their own and others' performance. Consistent with predictions, group members had more goal commitment, more positive attitudes toward goal attainment, and greater satisfaction with their performance than individuals. Moreover, groups chose goals that were less difficult than the goals of individuals both for their own and for others' performance. The ways in which group decision processes and other factors may account for differences in group and individual goal decisions are considered. In addition, the social-emotional and task-related benefits members perceive of working in their groups are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effect of input from a mechanical model on clinical judgment.

Investigated the effects of presenting decision makers with estimates based on mechanical models of their own prior decisions before they were required to make a prediction. In the task, 20 graduate business students attempted to predict the number of games a baseball team won during the year on the basis of 3 team statistics. Input from a mechanical model improved Ss' predictions, although their predictions were not as accurate as the model. Ss' estimates were more extreme than their models' estimates, and they deviated most from the model when the team statistics provided conflicting information. Outcome feedback increased the amount by which Ss' estimates deviated from the model. (17 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Decisional strategy determines whether frame influences treatment preferences for medical decisions.

Decision makers are influenced by the frame of information such that preferences vary depending on whether survival or mortality data are presented. Research is inconsistent as to whether and how age impacts framing effects. This paper presents two studies that used qualitative analyses of think-aloud protocols to understand how the type of information used in the decision making process varies by frame and age. In Study 1, 40 older adults, age 65 to 89, and 40 younger adults, age 18 to 24, responded to a hypothetical lung cancer scenario in a within-subject design. Participants received both a survival and mortality frame. Qualitative analyses revealed that two main decisional strategies were used by all participants: one strategy reflected a data-driven decisional process, whereas the other reflected an experience-driven process. Age predicted decisional strategy, with older adults less likely to use a data-driven strategy. Frame interacted with strategy to predict treatment choice; only those using a data-driven strategy demonstrated framing effects. In Study 2, 61 older adults, age 65 to 98, and 63 younger adults, age 18 to 30, responded to the same scenarios as in Study 1 in a between-subject design. The results of Study 1 were replicated, with age significantly predicting decisional strategy and frame interacting with strategy to predict treatment choice. Findings suggest that framing effects may be more related to decisional strategy than to age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Why older adults make more immediate treatment decisions about cancer than younger adults.

Literature relevant to medical decision making was reviewed, and a model was outlined for testing. Two studies examined whether older adults make more immediate decisions than younger adults about treatments for prostate or breast cancer in authentic scenarios. Findings clearly showed that older adults were more likely to make immediate decisions than younger adults. The research is important because it not only demonstrates the consistency of this age-related effect across disease domains, gender, ethnic groups, and prevalent education levels but begins to investigate a model to explain the effect. Major reasons for the effect focus on treatment knowledge, interest and engagement, and cognitive resources. Treatment knowledge, general cancer knowledge, interest, and cognitive resources relate to different ways of processing treatment information and preferences for immediate versus delayed decision making. Adults with high knowledge of treatments on a reliable test tended to make immediate treatment decisions, which supports the knowledge explanation. Adults with more cognitive resources and more interest tended to delay their treatment decisions. Little support was found for a cohort explanation for the relationship between age and preference for immediate medical decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Knowing others' preferences degrades the quality of group decisions.

Results from 4 experiments demonstrate that learning the other group members' preferences at the beginning of a discussion impedes the solution of hidden profiles. In Experiments 1–3, participants who were not informed about their fellow group members' preferences were more likely to solve a hidden profile than those who received bogus information about the others' preferences. The negative effect of learning the others' preferences on decision quality was mediated by participants paying less attention to the information exchanged when they had been made aware of the others' preferences. Experiments 1 and 2 further ruled out that the effect of learning the others' preferences is due to participants bolstering their position or due to an increase in informational load. Experiment 3 showed that learning the other group members' preferences impedes the solution of hidden profiles even if one of the other members favors the correct alternative. Finally, Experiment 4 replicated these results in face-to-face interacting 3-person groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

False memories for end-of-life decisions.

Objective: To examine people's false memories for end-of-life decisions. Design: In Study 1, older adults decided which life-sustaining treatments they would want if they were seriously ill. They made these judgments twice, approximately 12 months apart. At Time 2, older adults and their self-selected surrogate decision makers tried to recall the older adults' Time 1 decisions. In Study 2, younger adults made treatment decisions twice, approximately 4 months apart. At Time 2, younger adults tried to recall their Time 1 decisions. Main Outcome Measures: Percentage of participants who falsely remembered that their original treatment decisions were the same as their current decisions. Results: In Study 1, older adults falsely remembered that 75% of their original decisions were the same as their current decisions; surrogates falsely thought that 86% of older adults' decisions were the same. In Study 2, younger adults falsely remembered that 69% of their original decisions were the same as their current decisions. Conclusion: Age alone cannot account for people's false memories of their end-of-life decisions; we discuss other mechanisms. The results have practical implications for policies that encourage people to make legal documents specifying their end-of-life treatment decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Family dynamics in end-of-life treatment decisions

The decision to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment is now regularly weighed in chronic or terminal illness. Families are usually supportive advocates and concerned surrogate decision makers for patients, although they can also counter the wishes of the patient and disagree with the treatment team. Understanding the range of factors--internal and external, confronting the individual members and the family as a whole--that can influence family responses helps in working with families at this critical juncture in an illness. Interventions to assist the family and treatment team are discussed.     

Older adults prefer less choice than young adults.

Previous research has demonstrated that older adults prefer less autonomy and seek less information when making decisions on their own relative to young adults (for a review, see M. Mather, 2006). Would older adults also prefer fewer options from which to choose? The authors tested this hypothesis in the context of different decision domains. Participants completed a choice preferences survey in which they indicated their desired number of choices across 6 domains of health care and everyday decisions. The hypothesis was confirmed across all decision domains. The authors discuss implications from these results as they relate to theories of aging and health care policy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Do low-numeracy people avoid shared decision making?

Objectives: Doctors have been increasingly encouraged to involve patients in decision making rather than pursuing the paternalistic model in which they make the decisions for their patients. But do patients want to participate in making decisions about their health? Is there a relationship between their preferences for shared decision making and numeracy skills? Are those preferences different in countries with different medical systems, and for different age groups? Extant studies cannot answer these questions because most are based on nonprobabilistic, highly selective patient samples that prevent generalizations to a broader population. Design: In a survey on probabilistic national samples in the United States and Germany, we interviewed participants with low numeracy skills (Germany: n = 127, mean numeracy = 37; United States: n = 117, mean numeracy = 36) and high numeracy skills (Germany: n = 133, mean numeracy = 96; U.S.: n = 121, mean numeracy = 91). Main Outcome Measures: Usual and preferred role in medical decision making. Results: A significant number of people with low numeracy in both the United States (35%, SE = 8.2) and Germany (30%, SE = 6.1) preferred to be more passive than they currently were. High-numeracy people, in contrast, were mostly satisfied with their current role. On average, Americans were more active than Germans. Middle-aged participants preferred to be more active compared to both younger and older ones. Conclusions: Shared decision-making preferences are related to numeracy skills, country, and age. Education efforts to increase numeracy, as well as using nonquantitative communication formats, may foster involvement of low-numeracy patients in decisions about their health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times.

Tested 3 hypotheses concerning people's predictions of task completion times: (1) people underestimate their own but not others' completion times, (2) people focus on plan-based scenarios rather than on relevant past experiences while generating their predictions, and (3) people's attributions diminish the relevance of past experiences. Five studies were conducted with a total of 465 undergraduates. Results support each hypothesis. Ss' predictions of their completion times were too optimistic for a variety of academic and nonacademic tasks. Think-aloud procedures revealed that Ss focused primarily on future scenarios when predicting their completion times. The optimistic bias was eliminated for Ss instructed to connect relevant past experiences with their predictions. Ss attributed their past prediction failures to external, transient, and specific factors. Observer Ss overestimated others' completion times and made greater use of relevant past experiences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Medical specialists prefer to withdraw familiar technologies when discontinuing life support

OBJECTIVE: To assess how members of different specialties vary in their decisions about which form of life support to withdraw. The hypothesis was that each specialty would be more comfortable withdrawing its "own" form of life support relative to other forms and other specialties. DESIGN: Mail survey. SETTING: 24 medical centers. PARTICIPANTS: 225 specialists in six specialties and 225 comparison physicians randomly matched according to percentage of time devoted to clinical practice. MEASUREMENTS: The six specialties were linked with six life-sustaining technologies related to their special expertise: 1) pulmonologists with mechanical ventilation, 2) nephrologists with hemodialysis, 3) gastroenterologists with tube feedings, 4) hematologists with blood products, 5) cardiologists with intravenous vasopressors, and 6) infectious disease specialists with antibiotics. The subjects ranked different forms of life support in the order in which they would prefer to withdraw them. They also expressed their preferences in response to hypothetical clinical vignettes. RESULTS: In five of the six specialties, the specialists had a relative preference for withdrawing their "own" form of life support, compared with the preferences of the comparison physicians. Overall, the physicians tended to prefer withdrawing a form of life support closely linked with their own specialty. CONCLUSIONS: Just as some specialist physicians tend to reach for different technologies first in treating patients, they also tend to reach for different technologies first when ceasing treatment. Specialists' preferences for different ways to withdraw life support not only may reflect a special understanding of the limits of certain technologies, but also may reveal how ingrained are physicians' patterns of practice.     

Stability of Older Adults' Preferences for Life-Sustaining Medical Treatment.

The use of instructional advance directives assumes that preferences for life-sustaining medical treatment remain stable over time and across changes in life condition. A sample of 332 older adults recorded their preferences for 4 life-sustaining treatments in 9 illness scenarios. These preferences were elicited again 1 and 2 years after the original interview. Overall, preferences for life-sustaining treatment were moderately stable over time, but stability varied significantly across judgments. Preferences were most stable for illness scenarios that were most and least serious and for decisions to refuse treatment. Age, gender, education, and prior completion of an advance directive were all related to preference stability, and evidence indicated that declines in physical or psychological functioning resulted in decreased interest in life-sustaining treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparative Inactivation of Bacillus Subtilis Spores and MS-2 Coliphage in a UV Reactor: Implications for Validation

Biodosimetry is the currently accepted method for validation of fluence delivery in ultraviolet (UV) reactors for water disinfection. This method utilizes the inactivation of a surrogate microorganism to predict the reduction equivalent fluence and subsequent inactivation of a target pathogen. Two common surrogates—Bacillus subtilis spores and MS-2 coliphage—were used to examine the relationship between surrogate type and biodosimetry results. A pilot-scale LP UV reactor was investigated at two flow conditions (7.5 and 15?gpm) and four different UV 253.7?nm water transmittance (UVT, 1?cm) values between 82 and 91%. The calculated reduction equivalent fluence differed from a maximum of 30% at 7.5?gal./min and 15% at 15?gal./min between the surrogates tested, depending on the UVT. These differences were attributed to the sensitivity of organisms used, hydraulic inefficiences, and UV fluence distribution in the reactor, thus the choice of validation microbe may impact the determination of reduction equivalent fluence in UV reactors.     

Client anticipations and preferences for confidentiality of records.

116 new clients requesting services during one semester at a medium-sized university counseling center participated in a survey of preferences and anticipations about confidentiality of their client records. The survey asked Ss to rate the amount of information that they preferred and anticipated would be released by the psychotherapist under 13 request scenarios. Generally, Ss preferred less information to be released than they anticipated would be, but differences existed by scenario and recipient. Homogeneous clusters of Ss were identified who expressed unique anticipations and preferences about confidentiality. Some clusters of Ss preferred absolute confidentiality, but other clusters preferred broad release of their information. (26 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Perceived consensus and predictive accuracy: The pros and cons of projection.

This article examines the effect of high perceived consensus/projection on predictive accuracy and identifies those conditions where perceiving consensus indeed diminishes performance and where it is a reasonable prediction strategy. A model was developed to show how subjects should optimally weight their own positions compared with whatever other target-related information was available to them. Subjects predicted the attitudes of one of three target populations: the average, married American consumer; their average graduate school peer; or their spouse. The results indicated that although perceived consensus was quite high, 65% of the subjects could have actually increased their predictive accuracy by weighting their own positions even more. The heuristic value of relying on own positions varied dramatically depending on the target population: Although 63% of subjects predicting the attitudes of consumers projected too much, only 16% and 24% of subjects predicting attitudes of peers and spouses overprojected. Even when subjects perceived more consensus than actually existed, they often could have increased predictive accuracy by relying more heavily on their own attitudes because they seemed to have difficulty in identifying and consistently using other information about the target. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Social Motives and Strategic Misrepresentation in Social Decision Making.

In 4 experiments, the authors studied the influence of social motives on deception and strategic misrepresentation. In a newly developed information provision game, individuals faced a decision maker whose decision would affect both own and other's outcomes. By withholding information or by giving (in)accurate information about payoffs, participants could try to influence other's decision making. Less accurate and more inaccurate information was given when the decision maker was competitive rather than cooperative (Experiment 1), especially when participants had a prosocial rather than selfish value orientation (Experiments 3 and 4). Accurate information was withheld because of fear of exploitation and greed, and inaccurate information was given because of greed (Experiment 2). Finally, participants engaged in strategic misrepresentation that may trick competitive others into damaging their own and increasing the participant's outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Minority dissent and team innovation: The importance of participation in decision making.

This study integrates research on minority dissent and individual creativity, as well as team diversity and the quality of group decision making, with research on team participation in decision making. From these lines of research, it was proposed that minority dissent would predict innovation in teams but only when teams have high levels of participation in decision making. This hypothesis was tested in 2 studies, 1 involving a homogeneous sample of self-managed teams and 1 involving a heterogeneous sample of cross-functional teams. Study 1 suggested that a newly developed scale to measure minority dissent has discriminant validity. Both Study 1 and Study 2 showed more innovations under high rather than low levels of minority dissent but only when there was a high degree of participation in team decision making. It is concluded that minority dissent stimulates creativity and divergent thought, which, through participation, manifest as innovation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)