Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005–2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO₂ emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of 39–65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5–22.3% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Long-term CO2 emissions reduction target and scenarios of power sector in Taiwan

This study analyses a series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions abatement scenarios of the power sector in Taiwan according to the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines, which was released by Executive Yuan in June 2008. The MARKAL-MACRO energy model was adopted to evaluate economic impacts and optimal energy deployment for CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios. This study includes analyses of life extension of nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power units, commercialized timing of fossil fuel power plants with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology and two alternative flexible trajectories of CO₂ emissions constraints. The CO₂ emissions reduction target in reference reduction scenario is back to 70% of 2000 levels in 2050. The two alternative flexible scenarios, Rt4 and Rt5, are back to 70% of 2005 and 80% of 2005 levels in 2050. The results show that nuclear power plants and CCS technology will further lower the marginal cost of CO₂ emissions reduction. Gross domestic product (GDP) loss rate in reference reduction scenario is 16.9% in 2050, but 8.9% and 6.4% in Rt4 and Rt5, respectively. This study shows the economic impacts in achieving Taiwan's CO₂ emissions mitigation targets and reveals feasible CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for the power sector.     

Impacts of wind power generation and CO2 emission constraints on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam

This paper examines the impacts of wind power generation on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam. The study covers a time frame of 20 yr from 2005 to 2025 and the MARKAL model has been chosen to be adaptable to this specific task. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from wind is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel-based power plants. In order to make wind energy competitive, either carbon tax or an emission reduction target on the system must be imposed. The presence of wind power would affect not only the change in generation mix from coal-based power plants to wind turbines but also an increase in the capacity of other technologies which emit less carbon dioxide. It thus helps reduce fossil fuel requirement and consequently enhances energy security for the country. The study also shows that wind turbine in Vietnam could be a potential CDM project for annex I party countries.     

Factors affecting CO2 emission from the power sector of selected countries in Asia and the Pacific

This study analyzes the key factors behind the CO₂ emissions from the power sector in fifteen selected countries in Asia and the Pacific using the Log-Mean Divisia Index method of decomposition. The roles of changes in economic output, electricity intensity of the economy, fuel intensity of power generation and generation structure are examined in the evolution of CO₂ emission from the power sector of the selected countries during 1980–2004. The study shows that the economic growth was the dominant factor behind the increase in CO₂ emission in ten of the selected countries (i.e., Australia, China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, while the increasing electricity intensity of the economy was the main factor in three countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia and Philippines). Structural changes in power generation were found to be the main contributor to changes in the CO₂ emission in the case of Sri Lanka and New Zealand.     

The forecast of motor vehicle,energy demand and CO2 emission from Taiwan's road transportation sector

The grey forecasting model, GM(1,1) was adopted in this study to capture the development trends of the number of motor vehicles, vehicular energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Taiwan during 2007–2025. In addition, the simulation of different economic development scenarios were explored by modifying the value of the development coefficient, a, in the grey forecasting model to reflect the influence of economic growth and to be a helpful reference for realizing traffic CO₂ reduction potential and setting CO₂ mitigation strategies for Taiwan. Results showed that the vehicle fleet, energy demand and CO₂ emitted by the road transportation system continued to rise at the annual growth rates of 3.64%, 3.25% and 3.23% over the next 18 years. Besides, the simulation of different economic development scenarios revealed that the lower and upper bound values of allowable vehicles in 2025 are 30.2 and 36.3 million vehicles, respectively, with the traffic fuel consumption lies between 25.8 million kiloliters to 31.0 million kiloliters. The corresponding emission of CO₂ will be between 61.1 and 73.4 million metric tons in the low- and high-scenario profiles.     

China’s regional CO2 emissions: Characteristics,inter-regional transfer and emission reduction policies

This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s regional CO₂ emissions and effects of economic growth and energy intensity using panel data from 1997 to 2009. The results show that there are remarkable regional disparities among eastern, central and western areas, regional elasticities of per capita GDP and energy intensity on CO₂ emissions, which reflect the regional differences in economic development, economy structure and restraining function of energy intensity decrease on the emission. Energy intensity reducing is more effective to emission abatement for provinces with higher elasticity of energy intensity, but may not be significant for provinces with lower elasticity. The inverse distribution of energy production and consumption, regional unfairness caused by institutional factors like energy price and tax system result in inter-regional CO₂ emission transfer embodied in the power transmission. The calculation indicates that the embodied emission transfer was gradually significant after 2003, from eastern area to the central and western areas, especially energy production provinces in central area, which leads to distortion on the emission and emission intensity. The regional emission reduction targets and supporting policies should be customized and consistent with the actual situations rather than setting the same target for all the provinces.     

Potential for reduction of CO2 emissions and a low-carbon scenario for the Brazilian industrial sector

This study discusses the potential for reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use by the Brazilian industrial sector in a low-carbon scenario over a horizon until 2030. It evaluates the main mitigation measures, the quantities of this gas avoided and the respective abatement costs. In relation to a benchmark scenario projected for 2030, the reduction of CO₂ emissions estimated here can reach 43%, by adopting energy-efficiency measures, materials recycling and cogeneration, shifting from fossil fuels to renewables or less polluting energy sources and eliminating the use of biomass from deforestation. The set of measures studied here would bring emissions reductions of nearly 1.5 billion tCO₂ over a period of 20 years (2010–2030). This would require huge investments, but the majority of them would have significant economic return and negative abatement costs. However, in many cases there would be low economic attractiveness and higher abatement costs, thus requiring more effective incentives. Brazil is already carrying out various actions toward the mitigation measures proposed here, but there are still substantial barriers to realize this potential. Therefore, a collective effort from both the public and private sectors is needed for the country to achieve this low-carbon scenario.     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China

China has been the second CO₂ emitter in the world, while the transportation sector accounts for a major share of CO₂ emissions. Analysis of transportation sector CO₂ emissions is help to decrease CO₂ emissions. Thus the purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential factors influencing the change of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China. First, the transport sector CO₂ emissions over the period 1985–2009 is calculated based on the presented method. Then the presented LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) method is used to find the nature of the factors those influence the changes in transport sector CO₂ emissions. We find that: (1) Transport sector CO₂ emissions has increased from 79.67 Mt in 1985 to 887.34 Mt in 2009, following an annual growth rate of 10.56%. Highways transport is the biggest CO₂ emitter. (2) The per capita economic activity effect and transportation modal shifting effect are found to be primarily responsible for driving transport sector CO₂ emissions growth over the study period. (3) The transportation intensity effect and transportation services share effect are found to be the main drivers of the reduction of CO₂ emissions in China. However, the emission coefficient effect plays a very minor role over the study period.     

A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

In this study, we simulate global CO₂ emissions and their reduction potentials in the industrial sector up to the year 2030. Future industrial CO₂ emissions depend on changes in both technology and industrial activity. However, earlier bottom-up analyses mainly focused on technology change. In this study, we estimate changes in both technology and industrial activity. We developed a three-part simulation system. The first part is a macro economic model that simulates macro economic indicators, such as GDP and value added by sector. The second part consists of industrial production models that simulate future steel and cement production. The third part is a bottom-up type technology model that estimates future CO₂ emissions. Assuming no changes in technology since 2005, we estimate that global CO₂ emissions in 2030 increase by 15 GtCO₂ from 2005 level. This increase is due to growth in industrial production. Introducing technological reduction options within 100 US$/tCO₂ provides a reduction potential of 5.3 GtCO₂ compared to the case of no technology changes. As a result, even with large technological reduction potential, global industrial CO₂ emissions in 2030 are estimated to be higher as compared to 2005 level because of growth of industrial production.     

NOx formation and reduction mechanisms in staged O2/CO2 combustion

The purpose of this study was to investigate the NO_x formation and reduction mechanisms in staged O₂/CO₂ combustion and in air combustion. A flat CH₄ flame doped with NH₃ for fuel-N was formed over the honeycomb, and NO_x formation characteristics were investigated. In addition, chemiluminescence of OH^* distribution was measured, and CHEMKIN-PRO was used to investigate the detailed NO_x reduction mechanism. In general, the NO_x conversion ratio decreases with decreasing primary O₂/CH₄ ratio, whereas NH₃ and HCN, which are easily converted to NO_x in the presence of O₂, increases rapidly. Therefore, a suitable primary O₂/CH₄ ratio exists in the staged combustion. Our experiments showed the primary O₂/CH₄ ratio, which gave the minimum fixed nitrogen compounds in O₂/CO₂ combustion, was lower than in air combustion. The NO_x conversion ratio in O₂/CO₂ combustion was lower than in air combustion by 40% in suitable staged combustion. This could be explained by high CO₂ concentrations in the O₂/CO₂ combustion. It was shown that abundant OH radicals were formed in O₂/CO₂ combustion through the CO₂ + H → CO + OH, experimentally and numerically. OH radicals produced H and O radicals through H₂ + OH → H + H₂O and O₂ + H → OH + O, because a mass of hydrogen source exists in the CH₄ flame. O and OH radicals formed in the fuel-rich region enhanced the oxidation of NH₃ and HCN. NO_x formed by the oxidation of NH₃ and HCN was converted to N₂ because the oxidation occurred in the fuel-rich region where the NO_x reduction effect was high. In fact, the oxidation of NH₃ and HCN in the fuel-rich region was preferable to remaining NH₃ and HCN before secondary O₂ injection in the staged combustion. A significant reduction in NO_x emission could be achieved by staged combustion in O₂/CO₂ combustion.     

Accounting for energy-related CO2 emission in China, 1991–2006

As the country with the second largest emitter of energy-related CO₂ gas, China experienced a dramatic decline in CO₂ emission intensity from 1991 to 2000, but since then the rate of decline slowed and CO₂ emission intensity actually increased in 2003. In this paper, the complete decomposition method developed by Sun is used to analyze the nature of the factors that influence the changes in energy-related CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity during the period 1991–2006. We find that: (1) energy intensity effect is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity, (2) economic activity effect is the most important contributor to increased CO₂ emission, and (3) economic structure and CO₂ emission coefficient effects are found to contribute little to the changes in CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity, which actually increased CO₂ emission and CO₂ emission intensity over the period 1991–2006 except for several years.     

Role of CO2 in the CH4 oxidation and H2 formation during fuel-rich combustion in O2/CO2 environments

The effect of CO₂ reactivity on CH₄ oxidation and H₂ formation in fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion where the concentrations of reactants were high was studied by a CH₄ flat flame experiment, detailed chemical analysis, and a pulverized coal combustion experiment. In the CH₄ flat flame experiment, the residual CH₄ and formed H₂ in fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion were significantly lower than those formed in air combustion, whereas the amount of CO formed in fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion was noticeably higher than that in air. In addition to this experiment, calculations were performed using CHEMKIN-PRO. They generally agreed with the experimental results and showed that CO₂ reactivity, mainly expressed by the reaction CO₂ + H → CO + OH (R1), caused the differences between air and O₂/CO₂ combustion under fuel-rich condition. R1 was able to advance without oxygen. And, OH radicals were more active than H radicals in the hydrocarbon oxidation in the specific temperature range. It was shown that the role of CO₂ was to advance CH₄ oxidation during fuel-rich O₂/CO₂ combustion. Under fuel-rich combustion, H₂ was mainly produced when the hydrocarbon reacted with H radicals. However, the hydrocarbon also reacted with the OH radicals, leading to H₂O production. In fact, these hydrocarbon reactions were competitive. With increasing H/OH ratio, H₂ formed more easily; however, CO₂ reactivity reduced the H/OH ratio by converting H to OH. Moreover, the OH radicals reacted with H₂, whereas the H radicals did not reduce H₂. It was shown that OH radicals formed by CO₂ reactivity were not suitable for H₂ formation. As for pulverized coal combustion, the tendencies of CH₄, CO, and H₂ formation in pulverized coal combustion were almost the same as those in the CH₄ flat flame.     

CCS: A future CO2 mitigation option for Germany?—A bottom-up approach

The role that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies could play within the framework of an overall CO₂ mitigation strategy is examined in the form of scenarios up to 2030 with the example of Germany. As the calculations show, the use of CCS can represent an interesting mitigation option in view of stringent CO₂ reduction goals. The scenarios, performed with the aid of the IKARUS optimization model, however, also show that according to cost-efficiency criteria a large number of measures would have to be taken covering all energy sectors. CCS can at best represent one element in an overall strategy. The model results show that a mitigation goal for 2030 corresponding to a 35% reduction of CO₂ as compared to 1990 is necessary to trigger a significant contribution of CCS. As an alternative to a CO₂ restriction, we also calculated reduction scenarios based on CO₂ penalties. These scenarios showed that a penalty price of approximately 30 €/tCO₂ is necessary before CCS can be included in the model.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios

To achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, the international community will need to intensify its long-term efforts. Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios toward 2050, and their ambitious targets for CO₂ emission reduction are aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today's emission. In April 2004, Japan began a research project on its long-term climate policy. This paper discusses the long-term scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios in Japan to support the development of a Japan's long-term climate stabilization scenario. In this study, CO₂ emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity (indexes: CO₂ capture and storage, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic activity) and a Reduction Balance Table is developed.     

Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO₂ emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO₂ reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO₂ (LCCO₂) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO₂ emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO₂ emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO₂ emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO₂ emission intensity. The LCCO₂ emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO₂ emissions by the electric power sector. The introduction of FBR has the effect of further reducing CO₂ emissions in the nuclear power sector. Meeting energy demand and reducing CO₂ emissions while phasing out nuclear power appears challenging given its importance in the Japanese energy supply.     

CO2 emissions and reduction potential in China’s chemical industry

GHG (Increasing greenhouse gas) emissions in China imposes enormous pressure on China’s government and society. The increasing GHG trend is primarily driven by the fast expansion of high energy-intensive sectors including the chemical industry. This study investigates energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the processes of chemical production in China through calculating the amounts of CO₂ emissions and estimating the reduction potential in the near future. The research is based on a two-level perspective which treats the entire industry as Level one and six key sub-sectors as Level two, including coal-based ammonia, calcium carbide, caustic soda, coal-based methanol, sodium carbonate, and yellow phosphorus. These two levels are used in order to address the complexity caused by the fact that there are more than 40 thousand chemical products in this industry and the performance levels of the technologies employed are extremely uneven. Three scenarios with different technological improvements are defined to estimate the emissions of the six sub-sectors and analyze the implied reduction potential in the near future. The results highlight the pivotal role that regulation and policy administration could play in controlling the CO₂ emissions by promoting average technology performances in this industry.     

Incentives for subcontractors to adopt CO2 emission reporting and reduction techniques

We investigate the incentives for subcontractors (couriers) of a transport and logistics company to report about their CO₂ emissions and to implement CO₂ reducing technologies. Furthermore, we try to find out whether these incentives differ between British and Dutch couriers. We find that several incentives play a significant role. Subcontractors in the Netherlands predominantly are extrinsically motivated to engage in CO₂ reporting and reduction techniques. This is because they are mainly driven by regulatory compliance, energy costs and implementation costs. In contrast, British subcontractors are much more intrinsically motivated to comply. They are predominantly driven by energy costs, environmental awareness, relationship building and reputation building. The contractor will have to account for these differences in making its policies work.     

The public perspective of carbon capture and storage for CO2 emission reductions in China

To explore public awareness of carbon capture and storage (CCS), attitudes towards the use of CCS and the determinants of CCS acceptance in China, a study was conducted in July 2009 based on face-to-face interviews with participants across the country. The result showed that the awareness of CCS was low among the surveyed public in China, compared to other clean energy technologies. Respondents indicated a slightly supportive attitude towards the use of CCS as an alternative technology to CO₂ emission reductions. The regression model revealed that in addition to CCS knowledge, respondents’ understanding of the characteristics of CCS, such as the maturity of the technology, risks, capability of CO2 emission reductions, and CCS policy were all significant factors in predicting the acceptance of CCS. The findings suggest that integrating public education and communication into CCS development policy would be an effective strategy to overcome the barrier of low public acceptance.     

The empirical effects of a gasoline tax on CO2 emissions reductions from transportation sector in Korea

The introduction of carbon tax is expected to mitigate GHG emissions cost-effectively. With this expectation identifying the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand and GHG emission reductions is an interesting issue. One of the basic methods of estimating these impacts is using the price elasticity.